Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260905 · 10 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
Match detail
Athletic Club vs Atl. Madrid
LaLiga · 20260905 · 4-2-3-1 vs 3-5-2
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.6λ home/away 1.02 / 1.25Most-likely P 13.3%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Athletic Club | Atl. Madrid |
|---|
| League position | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 0.84 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 0.94 | 1.06 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 0.99 | 0.94 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Athletic Club λ | Atl. Madrid λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.881 | 1.132 |
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.854 | 1.254 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.881 | 1.132 |
| Final λ | 1.020 | 1.254 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 0-1 | 12.8% |
| 0-0 | 10.4% |
| 1-0 | 10.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.2% |
| Home win | 29.9% |
| Draw | 28.5% |
| Away win | 41.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 39.7% |
| BTTS yes | 45.8% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Atl. Madrid (41.5%), fair total 2.27, fair spread -0.23
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Athletic Club — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Unai Simón | G | 94 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.2 | 41.5 | 15 |
| Dani Vivian | D | 70 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 406% | 1 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 25.4 | 5 |
| Aymeric Laporte | D | 90 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 363% | 1 | 0.4 | 6.9 | 46.4 | 14 |
| Aitor Paredes | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 7 |
| Jesús Areso | D | 70 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 9.7 | 7 |
| Nico Williams | M | 90 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 7161% | 2 | 0.1 | 7.4 | 23.3 | 14 |
| Mikel Jauregizar | M | 65 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 284% | 1 | 0.7 | 7.3 | 26.9 | 7 |
| Oihan Sancet | M | 90 | 0 | 0.12 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 7.2 | - | 4 |
| Beñat Prados | M | 90 | 0 | 0.11 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 7.1 | - | 4 |
| Peio Canales | M | 90 | 0 | 0.10 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 7.0 | - | 3 |
| Gorka Guruzeta | F | 60 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.09 | 160% | 2 | 1.4 | 6.7 | 28.3 | 7 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 13 | | 7.0 | |
Atl. Madrid — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Jan Oblak | G | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.1 | 21.2 | 17 |
| Cristian Romero | D | 94 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 370% | 0 | 0.2 | 7.5 | 32.4 | 13 |
| Dávid Hancko | D | 86 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 156% | 1 | 0.8 | 7.4 | 54.0 | 13 |
| Marc Pubill | D | 74 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.04 | 300% | 1 | 0.2 | 7.2 | 25.1 | 19 |
| Pablo Barrios | M | 61 | 0 | 0.05 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.7 | 28.2 | 5 |
| Morten Hjulmand | M | 84 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 50% | 1 | 0.4 | 7.6 | 39.8 | 9 |
| Giuliano Simeone | M | 75 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 33% | 2 | 0.4 | 7.4 | 31.2 | 23 |
| Alex Baena | M | 50 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 195% | 1 | 0.9 | 7.6 | 46.3 | 21 |
| Kang-in Lee | M | 25 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 475% | 1 | 0.4 | 7.2 | 34.9 | 18 |
| Julián Alvarez | F | 81 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 31% | 2 | 1.4 | 7.7 | 44.4 | 18 |
| Ademola Lookman | F | 81 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.28 | ok | 2 | 1.4 | 7.4 | 52.8 | 13 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.25 | | 12 | | 7.4 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Nico Williams vs Pablo Barrios will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 0.69. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 49.1% / 50.9%, dominance ratio 0.46, key duel: Nico Williams vs Pablo Barrios
Beñat Prados xG 0.10Peio Canales xG 0.08Nico Williams xG 0.11Julián Alvarez xG 0.22Alex Baena xG 0.18Kang-in Lee xG 0.12
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Athletic Club vs Atl. Madrid. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Nico Williams vs Pablo Barrios will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 0.69. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Hull vs Aston Villa
Premier League · 20260905 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.61λ home/away 1.05 / 1.54Most-likely P 12.2%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Hull | Aston Villa |
|---|
| League position | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Hull λ | Aston Villa λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.750 | 1.378 |
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.725 | 1.536 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.750 | 1.378 |
| Final λ | 1.050 | 1.536 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 0-1 | 11.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% |
| 0-2 | 8.9% |
| 1-0 | 7.8% |
| Home win | 25.8% |
| Draw | 25.8% |
| Away win | 48.4% |
| Over 2.5 | 47.8% |
| BTTS yes | 51.1% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Aston Villa (48.4%), fair total 2.59, fair spread -0.49
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Hull — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Konstantinos Tzolakis | G | 93 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.2 | 36.0 | 8 |
| Ryan Giles | D | 90 | 0 | 0.03 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.9 | - | 3 |
| Charlie Hughes | D | 90 | 0 | 0.03 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.9 | - | 2 |
| Lucas Herrington | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 21.0 | 10 |
| Nobel Mendy | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 29.6 | 5 |
| Joe Gelhardt | M | 90 | 0 | 0.16 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 7.1 | - | 2 |
| Jens Hjertø-Dahl | M | 90 | 0 | 0.14 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 7.0 | - | 3 |
| Elliot Stroud | M | 42 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 881% | 1 | 0.1 | 6.9 | 22.1 | 9 |
| Hidemasa Morita | M | 67 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 20762% | 0 | 0.1 | 6.9 | 53.9 | 9 |
| Mohamed Belloumi | M | 90 | 0 | 0.13 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.9 | - | 3 |
| Oli McBurnie | F | 90 | 1 | 0.24 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.9 | - | 3 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 10 | | 7.0 | |
Aston Villa — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Zion Suzuki | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.4 | 43.5 | 10 |
| Ezri Konsa | D | 93 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.07 | 304% | 1 | 0.3 | 7.5 | 52.6 | 20 |
| Ian Maatsen | D | 40 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 529% | 0 | 0.2 | 7.1 | 35.1 | 13 |
| Matteo Ruggeri | D | 90 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 1138% | 0 | 0.1 | 7.1 | 49.9 | 12 |
| Pau Torres | D | 85 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.08 | 148% | 1 | 0.5 | 7.0 | 47.4 | 13 |
| Johan Manzambi | M | 81 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 86% | 2 | 1.1 | 7.7 | 41.6 | 25 |
| Amadou Onana | M | 57 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 202% | 2 | 0.3 | 7.5 | 43.2 | 16 |
| Boubacar Kamara | M | 90 | 0 | 0.12 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 7.4 | - | 3 |
| João Gomes | M | 84 | 0 | 0.04 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.4 | 26.6 | 5 |
| Ollie Watkins | F | 76 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.33 | ok | 2 | 1.3 | 7.2 | 42.3 | 21 |
| Alejandro Garnacho | F | 29 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 484% | 2 | 0.6 | 7.1 | 19.1 | 7 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.54 | | 13 | | 7.3 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Joe Gelhardt vs Johan Manzambi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.45, Away: 0.74. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 46.6% / 53.4%, dominance ratio 0.41, key duel: Joe Gelhardt vs Johan Manzambi
Jens Hjertø-Dahl xG 0.09Mohamed Belloumi xG 0.07Joe Gelhardt xG 0.08Ollie Watkins xG 0.27Johan Manzambi xG 0.24Boubacar Kamara xG 0.16
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Hull vs Aston Villa. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Joe Gelhardt vs Johan Manzambi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.45, Away: 0.74. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Newcastle vs Bournemouth
Premier League · 20260905 · 4-3-3 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.6λ home/away 1.49 / 1.02Most-likely P 12.5%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Newcastle | Bournemouth |
|---|
| League position | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Newcastle λ | Bournemouth λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.487 | 0.835 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.487 | 0.835 |
| Final λ | 1.487 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 2-0 | 9.0% |
| 0-0 | 8.2% |
| Home win | 47.9% |
| Draw | 26.3% |
| Away win | 25.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 45.8% |
| BTTS yes | 49.6% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Newcastle (47.9%), fair total 2.51, fair spread 0.47
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Newcastle — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Lukáš Horníček | G | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.2 | 42.1 | 15 |
| Tino Livramento | D | 37 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1122% | 1 | 0.1 | 7.2 | 10.6 | 11 |
| Malick Thiaw | D | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.4 | 29.5 | 13 |
| Lewis Hall | D | 95 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 281% | 1 | 0.5 | 7.4 | 39.6 | 8 |
| Sven Botman | D | 79 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 758% | 0 | 0.1 | 7.3 | 34.9 | 8 |
| Bazoumana Touré | M | 76 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 331% | 2 | 0.7 | 7.5 | 29.7 | 12 |
| Jacob Ramsey | M | 84 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 198% | 1 | 0.5 | 7.4 | 42.4 | 8 |
| Lewis Miley | M | 90 | 0 | 0.11 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 7.2 | - | 3 |
| Nick Woltemade | F | 92 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.02 | 1329% | 3 | 0.1 | 7.6 | 16.1 | 13 |
| Harvey Barnes | F | 95 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.16 | 135% | 2 | 1.4 | 7.4 | 44.0 | 8 |
| Anthony Elanga | F | 54 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.11 | 193% | 2 | 0.6 | 7.2 | 39.9 | 16 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.49 | | 14 | | 7.3 | |
Bournemouth — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Đorđe Petrović | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.4 | 34.7 | 6 |
| Adrien Truffert | D | 95 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 193% | 1 | 0.3 | 7.2 | 37.3 | 6 |
| António Silva | D | 95 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.10 | 244% | 2 | 0.4 | 7.3 | 20.3 | 7 |
| James Hill | D | 95 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 199% | 0 | 0.2 | 7.2 | 33.7 | 6 |
| Bafodé Diakité | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | - | 6 |
| Rayan | M | 84 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 42% | 2 | 0.7 | 7.6 | 33.0 | 15 |
| Alex Scott | M | 95 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 7.6 | 28.2 | 5 |
| Tyler Adams | M | 79 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1122% | 0 | 0.1 | 7.3 | 43.9 | 11 |
| Justin Kluivert | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 867% | 1 | 0.1 | 7.2 | 14.9 | 13 |
| Eli Junior Kroupi | F | 90 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 65% | 2 | 1.5 | 7.5 | 33.7 | 6 |
| Evanilson | F | 73 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.14 | ok | 2 | 0.8 | 7.2 | 34.2 | 6 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 13 | | 7.3 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Bazoumana Touré vs Rayan will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.19, Away: 0.55. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 50.3% / 49.7%, dominance ratio 0.49, key duel: Bazoumana Touré vs Rayan
Harvey Barnes xG 0.39Anthony Elanga xG 0.33Nick Woltemade xG 0.23Eli Junior Kroupi xG 0.27Rayan xG 0.14Justin Kluivert xG 0.11
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Newcastle vs Bournemouth. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Bazoumana Touré vs Rayan will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.19, Away: 0.55. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Man City vs Coventry
Premier League · 20260905 · 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 2-0Winner: Man CityConfidence 0.69λ home/away 2.43 / 0.74Most-likely P 12.4%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Man City | Coventry |
|---|
| League position | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Man City λ | Coventry λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 2.103 | 0.782 |
| Pre-calibration | 2.103 | 0.782 |
| Final λ | 2.427 | 0.743 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-0 | 12.4% |
| 1-0 | 10.2% |
| 3-0 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 7.6% |
| Home win | 74.5% |
| Draw | 16.0% |
| Away win | 9.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 61.4% |
| BTTS yes | 47.8% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Man City (74.5%), fair total 3.17, fair spread 1.68
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Man City — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.6 | 43.3 | 10 |
| Nico O'Reilly | D | 80 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.12 | 181% | 1 | 0.7 | 7.4 | 37.8 | 15 |
| Marc Guéhi | D | 88 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 611% | 0 | 0.2 | 7.7 | 53.1 | 16 |
| Joško Gvardiol | D | 44 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 573% | 0 | 0.2 | 7.4 | 39.3 | 10 |
| Rúben Dias | D | 92 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 1849% | 0 | 0.1 | 7.6 | 32.5 | 15 |
| Elliot Anderson | M | 89 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 152% | 1 | 1.0 | 7.9 | 57.3 | 18 |
| Rayan Cherki | M | 34 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 359% | 2 | 0.6 | 7.6 | 49.0 | 18 |
| Antoine Semenyo | M | 88 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.06 | 280% | 2 | 1.0 | 7.6 | 48.0 | 14 |
| Jérémy Doku | M | 92 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.04 | 449% | 2 | 0.8 | 7.9 | 42.8 | 17 |
| Phil Foden | M | 54 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 101% | 1 | 0.3 | 7.7 | 32.1 | 9 |
| Erling Haaland | F | 95 | 2 | 0.60 | 0.46 | ok | 3 | 2.1 | 7.8 | 40.1 | 15 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.43 | | 13 | | 7.6 | |
Coventry — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Carl Rushworth | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 7.0 | - | 3 |
| Milan van Ewijk | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 7.1 | - | 3 |
| Bobby Thomas | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 7.0 | - | 3 |
| Liam Kitching | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 7.0 | - | 2 |
| Jack Rudoni | M | 90 | 0 | 0.07 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 7.2 | - | 2 |
| Caleb Yirenkyi | M | 70 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 77% | 1 | 0.3 | 7.0 | 38.4 | 7 |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | M | 90 | 0 | 0.07 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 7.1 | - | 2 |
| Gustavo Hamer | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 7.1 | - | 2 |
| Sidiki Cherif | F | 43 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 232% | 2 | 0.4 | 6.9 | 26.2 | 5 |
| Haji Wright | F | 4 | 0 | 0.07 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 6.6 | - | 7 |
| Brandon Thomas-Asante | F | 26 | 0 | 0.16 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 22.0 | 6 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.74 | | 11 | | 7.0 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Elliot Anderson vs Jack Rudoni). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.10, Away: 0.53. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.
Midfield — possession 52.8% / 47.2%, dominance ratio 0.59, key duel: Elliot Anderson vs Jack Rudoni
Antoine Semenyo xG 0.25Rayan Cherki xG 0.13Jérémy Doku xG 0.23Haji Wright xG 0.11Sidiki Cherif xG 0.18Ephron Mason-Clark xG 0.08
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Man City vs Coventry. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Elliot Anderson vs Jack Rudoni). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.10, Away: 0.53. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.
Villarreal vs Deportivo
LaLiga · 20260905 · 5-4-1 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.58λ home/away 1.45 / 1.02Most-likely P 12.6%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Villarreal | Deportivo |
|---|
| League position | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Attack index | 0.84 | 0.42 |
| Defense (concede) index | 0.42 | 0.84 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 0.67 | 0.67 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Villarreal λ | Deportivo λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 1.325 | 0.724 |
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.449 | 0.706 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.325 | 0.724 |
| Final λ | 1.449 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-0 | 12.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
| 2-0 | 8.9% |
| 0-0 | 8.6% |
| Home win | 46.9% |
| Draw | 26.7% |
| Away win | 26.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 44.8% |
| BTTS yes | 49.0% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Villarreal (46.9%), fair total 2.47, fair spread 0.43
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Villarreal — projected line vs season baseline (5-4-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Luiz Júnior | G | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 7 |
| Renato Veiga | D | 95 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.03 | 1143% | 0 | 0.2 | 7.3 | 41.4 | 12 |
| Carlos Romero | D | 95 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 87% | 2 | 1.0 | 7.1 | 45.4 | 7 |
| Santiago Mouriño | D | 93 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 274% | 1 | 0.3 | 7.1 | 29.7 | 7 |
| Pau Navarro | D | 92 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 579% | 1 | 0.1 | 6.9 | 18.6 | 7 |
| Logan Costa | D | 14 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 13.6 | 10 |
| Alberto Moleiro | M | 90 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 220% | 2 | 0.4 | 7.7 | 37.3 | 7 |
| Pape Gueye | M | 72 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 133% | 2 | 0.9 | 7.5 | 47.7 | 11 |
| Tajon Buchanan | M | 72 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 56% | 2 | 0.6 | 6.9 | 43.2 | 12 |
| Ilias Akhomach | M | 90 | 0 | 0.09 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 16.0 | 4 |
| Georges Mikautadze | F | 89 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 45% | 3 | 1.0 | 7.4 | 27.0 | 8 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.45 | | 15 | | 7.2 | |
Deportivo — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Leo Román | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.9 | 38.7 | 7 |
| Giacomo Quagliata | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 16.0 | 4 |
| Adrià Altimira | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 17.5 | 4 |
| Lucas Noubi | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 16.2 | 4 |
| Lorenzo Amatucci | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 17.8 | 4 |
| Mario Soriano | M | 70 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 592% | 1 | 0.2 | 6.8 | 17.8 | 4 |
| David Mella | M | 90 | 0 | 0.09 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 15.5 | 4 |
| Angeliño | M | 90 | 0 | 0.08 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 6.9 | - | 7 |
| Yeremay Hernández | F | 90 | 1 | 0.29 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 7.2 | - | 3 |
| Jonathan Asp Jensen | F | 90 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.19 | ok | 2 | 1.4 | 6.9 | 37.1 | 7 |
| Bil Nsongo | F | 90 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 5631% | 2 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 17.0 | 4 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 11 | | 6.9 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Alberto Moleiro vs Lorenzo Amatucci). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.05, Away: 0.84. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.
Midfield — possession 52.6% / 47.4%, dominance ratio 0.59, key duel: Alberto Moleiro vs Lorenzo Amatucci
Carlos Romero xG 0.08Santiago Mouriño xG 0.10Ilias Akhomach xG 0.10Lorenzo Amatucci xG 0.04David Mella xG 0.06Angeliño xG 0.06
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Villarreal vs Deportivo. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 7 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 5-4-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Alberto Moleiro vs Lorenzo Amatucci). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.05, Away: 0.84. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace
Premier League · 20260905 · 4-4-2 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.6λ home/away 1.02 / 1.30Most-likely P 13.1%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Fulham | Crystal Palace |
|---|
| League position | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Fulham λ | Crystal Palace λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.011 | 1.301 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.011 | 1.301 |
| Final λ | 1.020 | 1.301 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 0-1 | 12.7% |
| 0-0 | 9.9% |
| 1-0 | 9.9% |
| 1-2 | 8.5% |
| Home win | 29.1% |
| Draw | 28.1% |
| Away win | 42.8% |
| Over 2.5 | 40.9% |
| BTTS yes | 46.7% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Crystal Palace (42.8%), fair total 2.32, fair spread -0.28
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Fulham — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Bernd Leno | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.9 | 34.7 | 6 |
| Calvin Bassey | D | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.3 | 35.5 | 6 |
| Antonee Robinson | D | 94 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 146% | 1 | 0.2 | 7.2 | 41.8 | 12 |
| Ryan Sessegnon | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | - | 4 |
| Joachim Andersen | D | 74 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 359% | 1 | 0.2 | 7.1 | 12.0 | 5 |
| Oscar Bobb | M | 38 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 105% | 1 | 0.4 | 7.2 | 39.3 | 14 |
| Joshua King | M | 19 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 247% | 1 | 0.3 | 7.1 | 34.2 | 6 |
| Sander Berge | M | 88 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 188% | 2 | 0.2 | 7.5 | 31.8 | 13 |
| Kevin | M | 63 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 683% | 1 | 0.5 | 7.2 | 33.7 | 6 |
| Gonzalo García | F | 64 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 242% | 2 | 0.3 | 7.2 | 25.9 | 11 |
| Rodrigo Muniz | F | 80 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.17 | ok | 2 | 1.2 | 7.0 | 31.0 | 6 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 11 | | 7.2 | |
Crystal Palace — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Dean Henderson | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.4 | 22.6 | 15 |
| Jaydee Canvot | D | 95 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.04 | 354% | 1 | 0.3 | 7.1 | 27.4 | 7 |
| Chris Richards | D | 88 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 154% | 1 | 0.5 | 7.3 | 42.7 | 11 |
| Chadi Riad | D | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 171% | 1 | 0.2 | 7.0 | 25.5 | 13 |
| Adam Wharton | M | 63 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 213% | 2 | 0.9 | 7.7 | 41.3 | 7 |
| Anan Khalaili | M | 81 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 72% | 1 | 1.0 | 7.4 | 42.6 | 7 |
| Daniel Muñoz | M | 79 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 32% | 1 | 0.4 | 7.3 | 38.4 | 15 |
| Tyrick Mitchell | M | 94 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | ok | 2 | 0.7 | 7.3 | 39.7 | 7 |
| Ismaïla Sarr | F | 73 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.30 | ok | 2 | 1.6 | 7.4 | 37.9 | 13 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen | F | 59 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 66% | 2 | 0.6 | 7.3 | 21.6 | 14 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | F | 24 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.14 | ok | 2 | 0.4 | 7.1 | 31.2 | 15 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.30 | | 15 | | 7.3 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Oscar Bobb vs Adam Wharton will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.77, Away: 0.97. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense.
Midfield — possession 49.1% / 50.9%, dominance ratio 0.49, key duel: Oscar Bobb vs Adam Wharton
Kevin xG 0.11Oscar Bobb xG 0.10Sander Berge xG 0.04Jean-Philippe Mateta xG 0.24Ismaïla Sarr xG 0.34Anan Khalaili xG 0.12
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Fulham vs Crystal Palace. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Oscar Bobb vs Adam Wharton will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.77, Away: 0.97. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense.
Brighton vs Leeds
Premier League · 20260905 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.6λ home/away 1.46 / 1.02Most-likely P 12.6%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Brighton | Leeds |
|---|
| League position | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Brighton λ | Leeds λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.455 | 0.775 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.323 | 0.799 |
| Final λ | 1.455 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-0 | 12.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
| 2-0 | 8.9% |
| 0-0 | 8.5% |
| Home win | 47.0% |
| Draw | 26.6% |
| Away win | 26.4% |
| Over 2.5 | 45.0% |
| BTTS yes | 49.1% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Brighton (47.0%), fair total 2.48, fair spread 0.43
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Brighton — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Bart Verbruggen | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.5 | 36.5 | 11 |
| Luka Vušković | D | 71 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 609% | 1 | 0.3 | 7.5 | 28.5 | 10 |
| Ferdi Kadıoğlu | D | 91 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 729% | 1 | 0.4 | 7.4 | 40.2 | 12 |
| Mats Wieffer | D | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 11 |
| Pascal Struijk | D | 76 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 707% | 1 | 0.2 | 7.0 | 25.8 | 5 |
| Carlos Baleba | M | 69 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 428% | 1 | 0.5 | 7.6 | 35.3 | 6 |
| Yankuba Minteh | M | 95 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 416% | 2 | 0.2 | 7.6 | 35.7 | 6 |
| Yasin Ayari | M | 71 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 416% | 2 | 0.7 | 7.4 | 45.9 | 12 |
| Georginio Rutter | M | 90 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 140% | 2 | 0.5 | 7.3 | 31.8 | 6 |
| Diego Gómez | M | 75 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.13 | ok | 2 | 1.3 | 7.3 | 42.0 | 9 |
| Charalampos Kostoulas | F | 20 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.04 | 458% | 2 | 0.7 | 7.0 | 34.3 | 6 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.46 | | 16 | | 7.3 | |
Leeds — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| James Trafford | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 17 |
| Tarik Muharemović | D | 95 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 373% | 0 | 0.2 | 7.5 | 30.3 | 11 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson | D | 71 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.2 | 7.0 | 36.8 | 11 |
| Joe Rodon | D | 91 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 448% | 1 | 0.1 | 7.0 | 28.9 | 7 |
| Jaka Bijol | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 17.8 | 12 |
| Ethan Ampadu | M | 95 | 0 | 0.03 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 7.4 | 31.6 | 7 |
| Harry Wilson | M | 66 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 371% | 2 | 0.7 | 7.4 | 28.9 | 7 |
| Anton Stach | M | 87 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 361% | 1 | 0.4 | 7.3 | 27.4 | 5 |
| Brenden Aaronson | M | 51 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 87% | 2 | 0.6 | 7.2 | 21.8 | 12 |
| Noah Okafor | F | 20 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 2046% | 2 | 0.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 14 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | F | 87 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.23 | ok | 2 | 0.8 | 7.1 | 34.3 | 6 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 12 | | 7.2 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Carlos Baleba vs Ethan Ampadu will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel.
Midfield — possession 51.3% / 48.7%, dominance ratio 0.53, key duel: Carlos Baleba vs Ethan Ampadu
Yankuba Minteh xG 0.16Yasin Ayari xG 0.10Georginio Rutter xG 0.12Noah Okafor xG 0.15Harry Wilson xG 0.14Brenden Aaronson xG 0.17
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Brighton vs Leeds. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Midfield is evenly contested — Carlos Baleba vs Ethan Ampadu will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel.
Rayo Vallecano vs R. Racing Club
LaLiga · 20260905 · 3-4-2-1 vs 3-5-2
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.55λ home/away 1.21 / 1.18Most-likely P 13.2%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | R. Racing Club |
|---|
| League position | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| Points per game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Attack index | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| Defense (concede) index | 0.84 | 1.25 |
| Form multiplier | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 0.86 | 1.02 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Rayo Vallecano λ | R. Racing Club λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.212 | 1.184 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.212 | 1.184 |
| Final λ | 1.212 | 1.184 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-0 | 10.9% |
| 0-1 | 10.7% |
| 0-0 | 9.2% |
| 2-1 | 7.9% |
| Home win | 36.7% |
| Draw | 27.9% |
| Away win | 35.4% |
| Over 2.5 | 42.9% |
| BTTS yes | 48.9% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Rayo Vallecano (36.7%), fair total 2.40, fair spread 0.03
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Rayo Vallecano — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Augusto Batalla | G | 82 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.9 | 40.3 | 7 |
| Andrei Rațiu | D | 70 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 204% | 1 | 0.4 | 6.9 | 44.4 | 9 |
| Marash Kumbulla | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 2 |
| Jozhua Vertrouwd | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 7 |
| Isi Palazón | M | 40 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 605% | 1 | 0.2 | 6.6 | 33.2 | 4 |
| Pedro Díaz | M | 53 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 281% | 2 | 0.4 | 6.7 | 36.7 | 7 |
| Giorgi Tsitaishvili | M | 88 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 1173% | 1 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 16.0 | 4 |
| Unai López | M | 67 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 1828% | 2 | 0.2 | 6.8 | 46.5 | 6 |
| Jorge de Frutos | F | 38 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 163% | 2 | 0.6 | 6.8 | 48.4 | 7 |
| Alemão | F | 39 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.07 | 213% | 2 | 0.7 | 6.6 | 38.7 | 7 |
| Sergio Camello | F | 55 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 94% | 2 | 1.4 | 6.7 | 43.1 | 7 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.21 | | 13 | | 6.8 | |
R. Racing Club — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Julen Agirrezabala | G | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 7 |
| Jorge Salinas | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 17.2 | 4 |
| Facundo González | D | 13 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 16.8 | 4 |
| Pablo Ramón | D | 76 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 16.5 | 4 |
| Gustavo Puerta | M | 91 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 127% | 2 | 1.6 | 7.4 | 40.0 | 9 |
| Andrés Martín | M | 90 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.28 | ok | 2 | 1.5 | 7.2 | 18.8 | 4 |
| Iñigo Vicente | M | 90 | 0 | 0.09 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 20.0 | 4 |
| Iván Martín | M | 78 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 1928% | 1 | 0.2 | 7.0 | 36.0 | 6 |
| Sergio Canales | M | 76 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 679% | 1 | 0.6 | 6.8 | 13.4 | 5 |
| Yassir Zabiri | F | 16 | 0 | 0.17 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 18.4 | 7 |
| Giorgi Guliashvili | F | 14 | 0 | 0.18 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.6 | - | 3 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.18 | | 11 | | 6.9 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Isi Palazón vs Gustavo Puerta will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.98, Away: 0.88. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.
Midfield — possession 48.7% / 51.3%, dominance ratio 0.46, key duel: Isi Palazón vs Gustavo Puerta
Isi Palazón xG 0.07Unai López xG 0.07Pedro Díaz xG 0.08Iván Martín xG 0.08Gustavo Puerta xG 0.11Andrés Martín xG 0.20
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Rayo Vallecano vs R. Racing Club. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 6 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Isi Palazón vs Gustavo Puerta will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.98, Away: 0.88. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.
Brentford vs Sunderland
Premier League · 20260905 · 4-2-3-1 vs 3-5-2
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.6λ home/away 1.53 / 1.05Most-likely P 12.3%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Brentford | Sunderland |
|---|
| League position | 4.00 | 19.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Brentford λ | Sunderland λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.527 | 0.767 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.527 | 0.767 |
| Final λ | 1.527 | 1.050 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% |
| 2-0 | 8.9% |
| 0-1 | 7.9% |
| Home win | 48.2% |
| Draw | 25.8% |
| Away win | 26.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 47.6% |
| BTTS yes | 51.0% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Brentford (48.2%), fair total 2.58, fair spread 0.48
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Brentford — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Caoimhin Kelleher | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.3 | 32.9 | 7 |
| Michael Kayode | D | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.3 | 32.5 | 6 |
| Sepp van den Berg | D | 53 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 426% | 1 | 0.2 | 7.2 | 29.4 | 5 |
| Nathan Collins | D | 95 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 624% | 0 | 0.1 | 7.3 | 28.9 | 7 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter | D | 94 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 198% | 1 | 0.5 | 7.1 | 33.0 | 6 |
| Mamadou Sangare | M | 95 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.08 | ok | 1 | 1.0 | 7.6 | 29.2 | 5 |
| Kevin Schade | M | 63 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.19 | ok | 2 | 1.0 | 7.3 | 32.2 | 6 |
| Dango Ouattara | M | 95 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.24 | ok | 2 | 1.3 | 7.4 | 36.3 | 6 |
| Yehor Yarmoliuk | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.2 | 7.4 | 35.8 | 6 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard | M | 69 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 2701% | 2 | 0.3 | 7.5 | 50.7 | 6 |
| Igor Thiago | F | 92 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.09 | 203% | 3 | 0.6 | 7.5 | 22.8 | 11 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.53 | | 14 | | 7.3 | |
Sunderland — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Robin Roefs | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.4 | 19.5 | 10 |
| Daniel Ballard | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 7.1 | - | 4 |
| Trai Hume | D | 94 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 1 | 0.5 | 7.1 | 36.1 | 8 |
| Nordi Mukiele | D | 92 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 45% | 2 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 41.2 | 5 |
| Habib Diarra | M | 30 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.08 | ok | 1 | 0.5 | 7.4 | 34.0 | 8 |
| Noah Sadiki | M | 79 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.04 | ok | 2 | 0.2 | 7.4 | 47.4 | 10 |
| Enzo Le Fée | M | 95 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 75% | 1 | 1.2 | 7.4 | 39.3 | 6 |
| Chris Rigg | M | 7 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 12.8 | 5 |
| Chemsdine Talbi | M | 86 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 735% | 1 | 0.2 | 7.1 | 27.9 | 14 |
| Brian Brobbey | F | 70 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.30 | ok | 2 | 1.1 | 7.3 | 39.2 | 11 |
| Wilson Isidor | F | 48 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.05 | 395% | 2 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 43.1 | 8 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 15 | | 7.2 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Mamadou Sangare vs Habib Diarra will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.98, Away: 0.60. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 50.8% / 49.2%, dominance ratio 0.51, key duel: Mamadou Sangare vs Habib Diarra
Dango Ouattara xG 0.28Mikkel Damsgaard xG 0.14Kevin Schade xG 0.17Brian Brobbey xG 0.26Chris Rigg xG 0.07Chemsdine Talbi xG 0.06
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Brentford vs Sunderland. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Mamadou Sangare vs Habib Diarra will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.98, Away: 0.60. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Forest vs Tottenham
Premier League · 20260905 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.59λ home/away 1.05 / 1.12Most-likely P 13.6%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Forest | Tottenham |
|---|
| League position | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Forest λ | Tottenham λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.049 | 1.124 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.049 | 1.124 |
| Final λ | 1.049 | 1.124 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 0-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-0 | 11.8% |
| 0-0 | 11.5% |
| 1-2 | 7.5% |
| Home win | 33.3% |
| Draw | 29.6% |
| Away win | 37.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 37.0% |
| BTTS yes | 44.0% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Tottenham (37.1%), fair total 2.17, fair spread -0.07
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Forest — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| John Victor | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.8 | - | 3 |
| Murillo | D | 55 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 278% | 1 | 0.4 | 7.3 | 32.6 | 8 |
| Ousmane Diomande | D | 83 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 556% | 0 | 0.2 | 7.4 | 30.7 | 13 |
| Neco Williams | D | 82 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 162% | 1 | 0.7 | 7.1 | 47.4 | 13 |
| Nikola Milenković | D | 79 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 899% | 0 | 0.1 | 7.1 | 44.9 | 12 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | M | 82 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.19 | ok | 2 | 1.4 | 7.8 | 45.0 | 11 |
| Callum Hudson Odoi | M | 95 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 365% | 1 | 0.7 | 7.5 | 37.5 | 6 |
| Dan Ndoye | M | 86 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 376% | 1 | 0.6 | 7.4 | 18.2 | 23 |
| Omari Hutchinson | M | 81 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 52% | 2 | 1.2 | 7.4 | 55.5 | 11 |
| Dilane Bakwa | M | 64 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 943% | 2 | 0.1 | 7.3 | 40.5 | 10 |
| Igor Jesus | F | 78 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.19 | ok | 2 | 1.9 | 7.2 | 49.2 | 12 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 12 | | 7.3 | |
Tottenham — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Antonín Kinský | G | 74 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.1 | 33.4 | 8 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke | D | 95 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.11 | 194% | 1 | 0.4 | 7.8 | 40.0 | 11 |
| Micky van de Ven | D | 95 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 129% | 1 | 0.3 | 7.4 | 37.7 | 12 |
| Pedro Porro | D | 95 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 41% | 2 | 0.9 | 7.5 | 46.1 | 16 |
| Destiny Udogie | D | 71 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 351% | 0 | 0.2 | 7.1 | 43.2 | 6 |
| Sandro Tonali | M | 83 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 243% | 2 | 1.2 | 7.7 | 43.1 | 8 |
| Mohammed Kudus | M | 90 | 0 | 0.10 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 7.5 | - | 2 |
| Mateus Fernandes | M | 95 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 37% | 1 | 0.8 | 7.7 | 37.2 | 6 |
| Xavi Simons | M | 66 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.24 | 59% | 2 | 1.0 | 7.6 | 40.5 | 4 |
| Lucas Bergvall | M | 32 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 349% | 1 | 0.4 | 7.4 | 41.0 | 13 |
| Dominic Solanke | F | 48 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.14 | ok | 2 | 0.5 | 7.2 | 19.2 | 4 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.12 | | 14 | | 7.5 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Morgan Gibbs-White vs Sandro Tonali will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.72, Away: 0.64. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 49.2% / 50.8%, dominance ratio 0.48, key duel: Morgan Gibbs-White vs Sandro Tonali
Morgan Gibbs-White xG 0.24Omari Hutchinson xG 0.12Dilane Bakwa xG 0.03Sandro Tonali xG 0.13Xavi Simons xG 0.14Mohammed Kudus xG 0.11
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Forest vs Tottenham. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Morgan Gibbs-White vs Sandro Tonali will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.72, Away: 0.64. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Generated 2026-09-05 13:33:43 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting