Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260906 · 6 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Valencia vs Barcelona LaLiga | 0-2 | Barcelona | 8.6% / 15.4% / 75.9% | 61.2% | 46.2% | 0.73 | 0.70 / 2.46 | - | pending |
| Arsenal vs Chelsea Premier League | 1-1 | Draw | 52.0% / 21.9% / 26.1% | 64.8% | 64.1% | 0.64 | 1.98 / 1.36 | - | pending |
| Málaga vs Levante LaLiga | 1-1 | Draw | 26.1% / 26.4% / 47.5% | 45.4% | 49.4% | 0.65 | 1.02 / 1.47 | - | pending |
| Everton vs Man Utd Premier League | 1-1 | Draw | 27.2% / 23.2% / 49.5% | 59.4% | 60.3% | 0.61 | 1.28 / 1.80 | - | pending |
| Alavés vs Osasuna LaLiga | 0-1 | Osasuna | 23.5% / 33.6% / 42.9% | 24.1% | 31.4% | 0.62 | 0.67 / 1.02 | - | pending |
| Espanyol vs Sevilla LaLiga | 1-1 | Draw | 36.4% / 27.0% / 36.6% | 46.7% | 51.9% | 0.61 | 1.27 / 1.27 | - | pending |
Match detail
Valencia vs Barcelona
LaLiga · 20260906 · 5-3-2 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 0-2Winner: BarcelonaConfidence 0.73λ home/away 0.70 / 2.46Most-likely P 12.8%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Valencia | Barcelona |
|---|
| League position | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| Points per game | 0.33 | 3.00 |
| Attack index | 0.42 | 2.50 |
| Defense (concede) index | 0.42 | 1.67 |
| Form multiplier | 0.94 | 1.06 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 0.63 | 1.65 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Valencia λ | Barcelona λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.743 | 2.117 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.743 | 2.117 |
| Final λ | 0.704 | 2.460 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-2 | 12.8% |
| 0-3 | 10.5% |
| 0-1 | 10.4% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% |
| 1-3 | 7.4% |
| Home win | 8.6% |
| Draw | 15.4% |
| Away win | 75.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 61.2% |
| BTTS yes | 46.2% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Barcelona (75.9%), fair total 3.16, fair spread -1.76
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Valencia — projected line vs season baseline (5-3-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Ryunosuke Sato | M | 68 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.06 | ok | 2 | 1.2 | 6.5 | 47.8 | 4 |
| Hugo Duro | F | 33 | 0 | 0.10 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 48.2 | 4 |
| Aliou Dieng | M | 18 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 48.8 | 4 |
| Javier Guerra | M | 84 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 124% | 2 | 0.8 | 7.2 | 49.8 | 4 |
| Filip Ugrinić | M | 64 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.10 | ok | 1 | 1.5 | 6.8 | 51.0 | 4 |
| José Luis Gayà | D | 68 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 17.2 | 4 |
| Mouctar Diakhaby | D | 74 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 242% | 1 | 0.5 | 6.6 | 48.5 | 4 |
| Pepelu | M | 66 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 454% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 51.8 | 4 |
| Arnau Martínez | D | 83 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 31.0 | 2 |
| Pablo Maffeo | D | 37 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 45.7 | 3 |
| Stole Dimitrievski | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.4 | 48.0 | 4 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.70 | | 9 | | 6.8 | |
Barcelona — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Anthony Gordon | F | 59 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.16 | 160% | 3 | 1.8 | 7.8 | 55.5 | 4 |
| Fermín López | M | 77 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.59 | 58% | 2 | 1.5 | 7.7 | 58.5 | 4 |
| Karim Adeyemi | F | 12 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.35 | ok | 1 | 0.8 | 6.1 | 51.8 | 4 |
| Pedri | M | 78 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 361% | 2 | 0.5 | 7.9 | 53.5 | 4 |
| Marc Bernal | M | 73 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.13 | ok | 1 | 0.8 | 7.3 | 53.8 | 4 |
| João Cancelo | D | 11 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 552% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.7 | 49.8 | 4 |
| Gerard Martín | D | 95 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.03 | 617% | 1 | 0.2 | 7.3 | 37.2 | 4 |
| Pau Cubarsí | D | 95 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.11 | 289% | 1 | 0.5 | 7.7 | 38.2 | 4 |
| Raphinha | M | 90 | 0 | 0.24 | 1.03 | 76% | 2 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 68.2 | 4 |
| Eric García | D | 92 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 630% | 1 | 0.5 | 7.3 | 38.5 | 4 |
| Joan García | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.7 | 52.8 | 4 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.46 | | 16 | | 7.4 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Javier Guerra vs Pedri). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.43, Away: 0.52. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 46.2% / 53.8%, dominance ratio 0.39, key duel: Javier Guerra vs Pedri
Hugo Duro xG 0.12Arnau Martínez xG 0.06Filip Ugrinić xG 0.08Fermín López xG 0.15Pedri xG 0.05Anthony Gordon xG 0.24
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Valencia vs Barcelona. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Javier Guerra vs Pedri). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.43, Away: 0.52. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Arsenal vs Chelsea
Premier League · 20260906 · 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.64λ home/away 1.98 / 1.36Most-likely P 9.6%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Arsenal | Chelsea |
|---|
| League position | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Attack index | 1.67 | 2.92 |
| Defense (concede) index | 2.08 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.64 | 1.57 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Arsenal λ | Chelsea λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.982 | 1.357 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.982 | 1.357 |
| Final λ | 1.982 | 1.357 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 9.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
| 1-0 | 7.0% |
| 2-0 | 7.0% |
| 1-2 | 6.5% |
| Home win | 52.0% |
| Draw | 21.9% |
| Away win | 26.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 64.8% |
| BTTS yes | 64.1% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Arsenal (52.0%), fair total 3.34, fair spread 0.62
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Arsenal — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| David Raya | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.7 | 34.5 | 4 |
| Ben White | D | 95 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.04 | 500% | 1 | 0.2 | 7.3 | 37.2 | 4 |
| Kai Havertz | F | 95 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.07 | 407% | 2 | 0.5 | 7.5 | 34.2 | 4 |
| Christos Tzolis | M | 66 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.05 | 369% | 2 | 1.0 | 7.6 | 34.0 | 4 |
| Martin Ødegaard | M | 82 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 121% | 2 | 1.0 | 7.7 | 38.2 | 4 |
| Bukayo Saka | F | 90 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.32 | ok | 2 | 1.2 | 7.5 | 39.2 | 4 |
| Declan Rice | M | 86 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 311% | 1 | 0.5 | 8.1 | 36.8 | 4 |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly | D | 90 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.03 | ok | 0 | 0.5 | 7.3 | 37.0 | 4 |
| Riccardo Calafiori | D | 94 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 187% | 1 | 0.5 | 7.4 | 37.8 | 4 |
| Gabriel Magalhães | D | 95 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 222% | 1 | 0.5 | 7.4 | 34.0 | 4 |
| Ezri Konsa | D | 12 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.4 | 22.3 | 3 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.98 | | 13 | | 7.5 | |
Chelsea — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| João Pedro | F | 95 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.62 | ok | 2 | 3.0 | 8.2 | 54.0 | 3 |
| Morgan Rogers | M | 90 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.37 | 47% | 2 | 2.0 | 7.5 | 54.7 | 3 |
| Cole Palmer | M | 90 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.31 | 38% | 2 | 3.0 | 7.5 | 56.0 | 3 |
| Jorrel Hato | D | 90 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 616% | 0 | 0.3 | 7.3 | 45.0 | 3 |
| Roméo Lavia | M | 69 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.25 | 70% | 1 | 0.7 | 7.1 | 48.0 | 3 |
| Malo Gusto | D | 90 | 0 | 0.03 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.3 | 42.7 | 3 |
| Pedro Neto | M | 75 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.15 | ok | 1 | 1.0 | 7.3 | 50.7 | 3 |
| Levi Colwill | D | 89 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 237% | 1 | 0.3 | 7.5 | 41.0 | 3 |
| Maxence Lacroix | D | 95 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 322% | 1 | 0.3 | 7.5 | 45.0 | 3 |
| Wesley Fofana | D | 72 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.3 | 32.0 | 2 |
| Emiliano Martínez | G | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.3 | 40.5 | 2 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.36 | | 11 | | 7.4 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Declan Rice vs Morgan Rogers will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.70, Away: 0.68. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.
Midfield — possession 51.1% / 48.9%, dominance ratio 0.50, key duel: Declan Rice vs Morgan Rogers
Christos Tzolis xG 0.16Bukayo Saka xG 0.28Kai Havertz xG 0.26João Pedro xG 0.35Roméo Lavia xG 0.05Pedro Neto xG 0.12
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Arsenal vs Chelsea. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 3 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Declan Rice vs Morgan Rogers will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.70, Away: 0.68. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.
Málaga vs Levante
LaLiga · 20260906 · 4-4-2 vs 4-1-4-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.65λ home/away 1.02 / 1.47Most-likely P 12.5%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Málaga | Levante |
|---|
| League position | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| Points per game | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| Attack index | 0.42 | 1.04 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.04 | 2.92 |
| Form multiplier | 0.95 | 1.05 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 0.72 | 1.60 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Málaga λ | Levante λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.795 | 1.472 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.795 | 1.472 |
| Final λ | 1.020 | 1.472 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 0-1 | 12.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% |
| 0-2 | 9.0% |
| 0-0 | 8.4% |
| Home win | 26.1% |
| Draw | 26.4% |
| Away win | 47.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 45.4% |
| BTTS yes | 49.4% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Levante (47.5%), fair total 2.49, fair spread -0.45
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Málaga — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Alfonso Herrero | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.0 | 54.5 | 4 |
| Ángel Recio | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 46.8 | 4 |
| Chupete | F | 91 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.49 | ok | 2 | 2.0 | 6.9 | 49.8 | 4 |
| Carlos Dotor | M | 69 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 857% | 2 | 0.2 | 6.6 | 53.8 | 4 |
| Joaquín Muñoz | M | 66 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 819% | 2 | 0.5 | 6.8 | 49.0 | 4 |
| Izan Merino | M | 86 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 240% | 2 | 0.2 | 6.7 | 49.8 | 4 |
| Dani Lorenzo | M | 81 | 0 | 0.04 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 47.3 | 3 |
| David Larrubia | M | 89 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 283% | 2 | 1.8 | 6.7 | 51.0 | 4 |
| Rafa Garrido | D | 88 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 400% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.5 | 49.2 | 4 |
| Einar Galilea | D | 80 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 49.2 | 4 |
| Carlos Puga | D | 73 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 545% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.3 | 49.5 | 4 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 13 | | 6.7 | |
Levante — projected line vs season baseline (4-1-4-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Thiago Fernández | M | 74 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.03 | 513% | 2 | 0.7 | 6.9 | 45.3 | 3 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti | M | 88 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 69% | 1 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 53.8 | 4 |
| Enzo Bardeli | M | 66 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 2240% | 2 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 51.8 | 4 |
| Roger Brugué | M | 85 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.62 | 73% | 2 | 2.3 | 6.6 | 48.3 | 3 |
| Oriol Rey | M | 88 | 0 | 0.05 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 50.0 | 4 |
| Manuel Sánchez | D | 89 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 846% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.6 | 48.5 | 4 |
| Aïssa Mandi | D | 88 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 533% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.7 | 53.8 | 4 |
| Adrián de la Fuente | D | 89 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.10 | 92% | 2 | 1.2 | 6.6 | 55.8 | 4 |
| Iván Romero | F | 75 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.39 | ok | 2 | 2.2 | 6.8 | 47.5 | 4 |
| Jeremy Toljan | D | 23 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 49.2 | 4 |
| Mathew Ryan | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.0 | 57.2 | 4 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.47 | | 12 | | 6.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — David Larrubia vs Enzo Bardeli will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.66, Away: 0.67. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 49.8% / 50.2%, dominance ratio 0.49, key duel: David Larrubia vs Enzo Bardeli
Joaquín Muñoz xG 0.09Carlos Dotor xG 0.07Dani Lorenzo xG 0.04Iván Romero xG 0.23Enzo Bardeli xG 0.08Roger Brugué xG 0.12
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Málaga vs Levante. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-1-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — David Larrubia vs Enzo Bardeli will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.66, Away: 0.67. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Everton vs Man Utd
Premier League · 20260906 · 3-4-2-1 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.61λ home/away 1.28 / 1.80Most-likely P 10.7%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Everton | Man Utd |
|---|
| League position | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Everton λ | Man Utd λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.280 | 1.798 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.280 | 1.798 |
| Final λ | 1.280 | 1.798 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% |
| 0-1 | 8.2% |
| 0-2 | 7.4% |
| 2-1 | 6.8% |
| Home win | 27.2% |
| Draw | 23.2% |
| Away win | 49.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 59.4% |
| BTTS yes | 60.3% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Man Utd (49.5%), fair total 3.08, fair spread -0.52
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Everton — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Jordan Pickford | G | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.1 | 38.8 | 4 |
| Jarrad Branthwaite | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.02 | ok | 0 | 0.2 | 7.3 | 34.5 | 4 |
| Vitaliy Mykolenko | D | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 35.2 | 4 |
| Jake O'Brien | D | 82 | 0 | 0.39 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 6.9 | - | 3 |
| Iliman Ndiaye | M | 95 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 49% | 2 | 1.7 | 7.5 | 70.7 | 3 |
| James Garner | M | 95 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 7.8 | 33.2 | 4 |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | M | 95 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 129% | 1 | 1.2 | 7.5 | 39.2 | 4 |
| Hayden Hackney | M | 90 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 2520% | 1 | 0.3 | 7.3 | 45.7 | 3 |
| Brennan Johnson | F | 67 | 1 | 0.16 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 7.2 | 32.0 | 4 |
| Thierno Barry | F | 43 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.48 | 73% | 2 | 1.2 | 7.1 | 34.2 | 4 |
| Tyrique George | F | 19 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 132% | 2 | 1.8 | 6.9 | 35.0 | 4 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.28 | | 13 | | 7.3 | |
Man Utd — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Senne Lammens | G | 82 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.5 | 47.7 | 3 |
| Lisandro Martínez | D | 95 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 297% | 0 | 0.3 | 7.5 | 21.7 | 3 |
| Leny Yoro | D | 17 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.3 | 31.5 | 2 |
| Ayden Heaven | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 59% | 0 | 1.0 | 7.2 | 31.5 | 2 |
| Kobbie Mainoo | M | 95 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.07 | ok | 2 | 1.3 | 7.8 | 48.3 | 3 |
| Amad Diallo | M | 82 | 0 | 0.23 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 7.5 | - | 0 |
| Youri Tielemans | M | 87 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.17 | ok | 1 | 1.3 | 7.7 | 49.3 | 3 |
| Andrey Santos | M | 63 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 7.4 | 68.5 | 2 |
| Matheus Cunha | F | 56 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.12 | 234% | 2 | 1.7 | 7.6 | 42.7 | 3 |
| Benjamin Šeško | F | 90 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.02 | 1824% | 2 | 0.5 | 7.5 | 63.5 | 2 |
| Bryan Mbeumo | F | 63 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.75 | 49% | 2 | 3.0 | 7.5 | 47.7 | 3 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.80 | | 14 | | 7.5 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Iliman Ndiaye vs Kobbie Mainoo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.16, Away: 1.49. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.
Midfield — possession 49.0% / 51.0%, dominance ratio 0.49, key duel: Iliman Ndiaye vs Kobbie Mainoo
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall xG 0.15James Garner xG 0.09Iliman Ndiaye xG 0.20Amad Diallo xG 0.21Kobbie Mainoo xG 0.07Andrey Santos xG 0.05
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Everton vs Man Utd. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 7 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Iliman Ndiaye vs Kobbie Mainoo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.16, Away: 1.49. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.
Alavés vs Osasuna
LaLiga · 20260906 · 5-3-2 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 0-1Winner: OsasunaConfidence 0.62λ home/away 0.67 / 1.02Most-likely P 18.7%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Alavés | Osasuna |
|---|
| League position | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| Points per game | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| Attack index | 2.08 | 0.62 |
| Defense (concede) index | 0.21 | 0.42 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 0.73 | 0.64 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Alavés λ | Osasuna λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.672 | 0.664 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.672 | 0.664 |
| Final λ | 0.672 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-1 | 18.7% |
| 0-0 | 18.5% |
| 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-0 | 12.2% |
| 0-2 | 9.6% |
| Home win | 23.5% |
| Draw | 33.6% |
| Away win | 42.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 24.1% |
| BTTS yes | 31.4% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Osasuna (42.9%), fair total 1.69, fair spread -0.35
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Alavés — projected line vs season baseline (5-3-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Antonio Sivera | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.1 | 50.0 | 3 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia | D | 88 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 55% | 0 | 0.3 | 6.8 | 46.0 | 3 |
| Ángel Pérez | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.06 | ok | 2 | 1.0 | 6.9 | 48.0 | 3 |
| Lucas Boyé | F | 71 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.21 | 31% | 2 | 1.7 | 6.7 | 47.0 | 3 |
| Aitor Mañas | F | 8 | 0 | 0.12 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 22.3 | 3 |
| Denis Suárez | M | 23 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 46.3 | 3 |
| Antonio Blanco | M | 91 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 271% | 1 | 0.3 | 6.9 | 46.7 | 3 |
| Pablo Ibáñez | M | 89 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 138% | 2 | 1.7 | 6.7 | 47.3 | 3 |
| Abderrahman Rebbach | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 897% | 1 | 0.3 | 6.9 | 42.7 | 3 |
| Jonny Otto | D | 78 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 62% | 0 | 0.3 | 6.7 | 48.0 | 3 |
| Ville Koski | D | 83 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 46.3 | 3 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.67 | | 9 | | 6.8 | |
Osasuna — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Moi Gómez | M | 80 | 0 | 0.07 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 41.8 | 5 |
| Rubén García | M | 49 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 87% | 1 | 0.8 | 6.7 | 41.4 | 5 |
| Jonathan Dubasin | M | 57 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.10 | ok | 2 | 0.4 | 6.8 | 38.4 | 5 |
| Iker Muñoz | M | 67 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 1352% | 2 | 0.2 | 6.7 | 40.8 | 5 |
| Jon Moncayola | M | 75 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 354% | 1 | 0.4 | 6.7 | 41.4 | 5 |
| Abel Bretones | D | 88 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 513% | 1 | 0.4 | 6.5 | 41.0 | 5 |
| Alejandro Catena | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 44.2 | 5 |
| Enzo Boyomo | D | 52 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 13.8 | 5 |
| Iñigo Arguibide | D | 85 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 832% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.5 | 40.8 | 5 |
| Sergio Herrera | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.0 | 42.0 | 5 |
| Ante Budimir | F | 66 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.50 | ok | 2 | 1.8 | 6.7 | 43.0 | 5 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 11 | | 6.7 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Antonio Blanco vs Jon Moncayola will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.34, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 50.5% / 49.5%, dominance ratio 0.50, key duel: Antonio Blanco vs Jon Moncayola
Lucas Boyé xG 0.19Jonny Otto xG 0.01Antonio Blanco xG 0.05Rubén García xG 0.04Iker Muñoz xG 0.03Jonathan Dubasin xG 0.05
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Alavés vs Osasuna. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Antonio Blanco vs Jon Moncayola will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.34, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Espanyol vs Sevilla
LaLiga · 20260906 · 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.61λ home/away 1.27 / 1.27Most-likely P 12.8%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Espanyol | Sevilla |
|---|
| League position | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Attack index | 2.08 | 1.25 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.04 | 1.67 |
| Form multiplier | 0.95 | 1.05 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.37 | 1.36 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Espanyol λ | Sevilla λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.269 | 1.273 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.269 | 1.273 |
| Final λ | 1.269 | 1.273 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 0-1 | 9.9% |
| 1-0 | 9.9% |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
| Home win | 36.4% |
| Draw | 27.0% |
| Away win | 36.6% |
| Over 2.5 | 46.7% |
| BTTS yes | 51.9% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Sevilla (36.6%), fair total 2.54, fair spread -0.00
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Espanyol — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Marko Dmitrović | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.1 | 54.3 | 4 |
| Omar El Hilali | D | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 50.7 | 4 |
| Leandro Cabrera | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 1 |
| Roberto Fernández | F | 88 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.34 | ok | 2 | 1.5 | 6.8 | 57.5 | 4 |
| Javier Hernández | M | 75 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.07 | 244% | 1 | 0.8 | 6.8 | 51.2 | 4 |
| Tyrhys Dolan | M | 85 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 184% | 2 | 1.0 | 6.7 | 50.0 | 4 |
| Edu Expósito | M | 80 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.08 | ok | 2 | 2.2 | 6.7 | 51.2 | 4 |
| Urko González | M | 65 | 0 | 0.05 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 48.8 | 4 |
| Álex Calatrava | M | 75 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.15 | 75% | 2 | 1.5 | 6.7 | 51.8 | 4 |
| Roger Hinojo | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 53.0 | 4 |
| Unai Núñez | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 53.0 | 4 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.27 | | 12 | | 6.8 | |
Sevilla — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Robbie Ure | F | 74 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.09 | 261% | 2 | 1.0 | 6.3 | 47.0 | 4 |
| Chidera Ejuke | F | 30 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.09 | 158% | 1 | 0.5 | 6.7 | 54.0 | 4 |
| Jon Guridi | M | 60 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.22 | 68% | 2 | 0.8 | 6.6 | 47.5 | 4 |
| Miguel Sierra | M | 64 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 218% | 2 | 1.5 | 6.7 | 55.0 | 4 |
| Giorgi Kochorashvili | M | 34 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 366% | 1 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 22.7 | 3 |
| Lucien Agoumé | M | 92 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 642% | 1 | 0.5 | 7.1 | 52.3 | 4 |
| Gabriel Suazo | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 482% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.7 | 49.5 | 4 |
| Kike Salas | D | 91 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 134% | 2 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 45.3 | 3 |
| Andres Castrin | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 34.0 | 4 |
| Juan Iglesias | D | 89 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 199% | 1 | 0.5 | 6.3 | 50.5 | 4 |
| Odysseas Vlachodimos | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.9 | 50.8 | 4 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.27 | | 13 | | 6.7 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Urko González vs Lucien Agoumé will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.43, Away: 0.43. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 50.7% / 49.3%, dominance ratio 0.52, key duel: Urko González vs Lucien Agoumé
Roberto Fernández xG 0.22Tyrhys Dolan xG 0.11Edu Expósito xG 0.06Miguel Sierra xG 0.12Jon Guridi xG 0.04Robbie Ure xG 0.21
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Espanyol vs Sevilla. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Urko González vs Lucien Agoumé will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.43, Away: 0.43. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Generated 2026-09-06 13:31:46 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting