Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260907 · 2 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Getafe vs Celta LaLiga | 0-0 | Draw | 31.7% / 31.6% / 36.6% | 30.9% | 38.8% | 0.61 | 0.93 / 1.02 | - | pending |
| Elche vs Real Sociedad LaLiga | 1-1 | Draw | 28.2% / 27.6% / 44.1% | 42.2% | 47.4% | 0.64 | 1.02 / 1.35 | - | pending |
Match detail
Getafe vs Celta
LaLiga · 20260907 · 4-4-2 vs 3-4-3
Predicted 0-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.61λ home/away 0.93 / 1.02Most-likely P 14.4%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Getafe | Celta |
|---|
| League position | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Attack index | 0.42 | 0.21 |
| Defense (concede) index | 0.83 | 1.67 |
| Form multiplier | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 0.68 | 0.67 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Getafe λ | Celta λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.927 | 0.718 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.927 | 0.718 |
| Final λ | 0.927 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-0 | 14.4% |
| 0-1 | 14.4% |
| 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 13.1% |
| 0-2 | 7.4% |
| Home win | 31.7% |
| Draw | 31.6% |
| Away win | 36.6% |
| Over 2.5 | 30.9% |
| BTTS yes | 38.8% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Celta (36.6%), fair total 1.95, fair spread -0.09
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Getafe — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Martín Satriano | F | 88 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.12 | 99% | 2 | 1.7 | 6.8 | 43.3 | 3 |
| Enes Ünal | F | 90 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.32 | ok | 2 | 1.0 | 6.9 | 44.3 | 3 |
| Ramón Terrats | M | 88 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.13 | ok | 1 | 2.7 | 6.8 | 47.7 | 3 |
| Nemanja Gudelj | M | 14 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 436% | 2 | 0.5 | 6.7 | 33.5 | 2 |
| Orel Mangala | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 74% | 2 | 0.7 | 6.8 | 45.0 | 3 |
| Francho Serrano | M | 81 | 0 | 0.04 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 43.7 | 3 |
| Johan Mojica | D | 88 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 172% | 1 | 0.3 | 6.5 | 45.3 | 3 |
| Zaid Romero | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 46.7 | 3 |
| Djené | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 43.7 | 3 |
| Kiko Femenía | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 35.5 | 2 |
| David Soria | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.9 | 50.7 | 3 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.93 | | 12 | | 6.7 | |
Celta — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Hugo Álvarez | M | 29 | 0 | 0.08 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 38.8 | 5 |
| Pablo Durán | F | 43 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.01 | 1847% | 2 | 0.2 | 6.7 | 39.0 | 5 |
| Iago Aspas | F | 37 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 358% | 2 | 0.8 | 6.7 | 55.6 | 5 |
| Javi Galán | D | 12 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.4 | 39.8 | 5 |
| Ilaix Moriba | M | 61 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 344% | 2 | 0.4 | 7.0 | 53.0 | 5 |
| Miguel Román | M | 80 | 0 | 0.05 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 56.4 | 5 |
| Sergio Carreira | M | 91 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 103% | 1 | 0.6 | 7.0 | 56.6 | 5 |
| Marcos Alonso | D | 76 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.06 | 352% | 1 | 0.5 | 6.7 | 52.5 | 4 |
| Yoel Lago | D | 77 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 54.6 | 5 |
| Ionuț Radu | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.2 | 59.0 | 5 |
| Javi Rodríguez | D | 61 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 306% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 52.2 | 5 |
| Team totals | 0 | 1.02 | | 11 | | 6.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Orel Mangala vs Miguel Román will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.90, Away: 0.55. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.
Midfield — possession 48.9% / 51.1%, dominance ratio 0.46, key duel: Orel Mangala vs Miguel Román
Ramón Terrats xG 0.15Nemanja Gudelj xG 0.06Francho Serrano xG 0.04Hugo Álvarez xG 0.07Ilaix Moriba xG 0.04Miguel Román xG 0.04
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Getafe vs Celta. Most likely scoreline: 0-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 3-4-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Orel Mangala vs Miguel Román will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.90, Away: 0.55. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.
Elche vs Real Sociedad
LaLiga · 20260907 · 5-3-2 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.64λ home/away 1.02 / 1.35Most-likely P 13.0%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Elche | Real Sociedad |
|---|
| League position | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| Points per game | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| Attack index | 1.25 | 0.62 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.25 | 3.75 |
| Form multiplier | 0.96 | 1.03 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.19 | 1.43 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Elche λ | Real Sociedad λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.980 | 1.347 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.980 | 1.347 |
| Final λ | 1.020 | 1.347 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 0-1 | 12.5% |
| 0-0 | 9.5% |
| 1-0 | 9.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% |
| Home win | 28.2% |
| Draw | 27.6% |
| Away win | 44.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 42.2% |
| BTTS yes | 47.4% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Real Sociedad (44.1%), fair total 2.37, fair spread -0.33
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Elche — projected line vs season baseline (5-3-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Matías Dituro | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.0 | 45.8 | 4 |
| Tete Morente | F | 37 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 3421% | 2 | 0.2 | 6.6 | 49.5 | 4 |
| Pedro Bigas | D | 35 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 32.0 | 4 |
| Buba Sangaré | D | 87 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 315% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.5 | 44.5 | 4 |
| Ezequiel Ponce | F | 32 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 475% | 1 | 0.5 | 6.5 | 34.2 | 4 |
| Facundo Buonanotte | M | 48 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 189% | 2 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 31.8 | 4 |
| Marc Aguado | M | 65 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 297% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.6 | 50.7 | 4 |
| Gonzalo Villar | M | 88 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 103% | 1 | 1.0 | 6.6 | 50.8 | 4 |
| Javi Morcillo | M | 18 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 32.8 | 4 |
| Germán Valera | M | 90 | 0 | 0.10 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 45.8 | 4 |
| Víctor Chust | D | 89 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 321% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.8 | 49.5 | 4 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 8 | | 6.7 | |
Real Sociedad — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Orri Óskarsson | F | 71 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.43 | ok | 3 | 1.8 | 7.1 | 54.2 | 5 |
| Gonçalo Guedes | M | 90 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.10 | ok | 2 | 1.5 | 6.9 | 50.0 | 4 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | F | 63 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.10 | 287% | 2 | 1.4 | 7.4 | 53.0 | 5 |
| Luka Sučić | M | 72 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.09 | ok | 2 | 1.4 | 6.9 | 53.6 | 5 |
| Carlos Soler | M | 53 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 445% | 1 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 54.6 | 5 |
| Yangel Herrera | M | 56 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 1242% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.8 | 53.2 | 5 |
| Sergio Gómez | D | 87 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 275% | 1 | 0.6 | 6.7 | 54.6 | 5 |
| Jon Martin | D | 95 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 274% | 1 | 0.4 | 7.1 | 54.4 | 5 |
| Igor Zubeldia | D | 75 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 53.6 | 5 |
| Álex Remiro | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.1 | 62.6 | 5 |
| Jon Aramburu | D | 83 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 160% | 1 | 0.6 | 6.7 | 52.6 | 5 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.35 | | 14 | | 6.9 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Facundo Buonanotte vs Luka Sučić will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.44, Away: 0.43. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 50.1% / 49.9%, dominance ratio 0.50, key duel: Facundo Buonanotte vs Luka Sučić
Tete Morente xG 0.11Víctor Chust xG 0.09Germán Valera xG 0.08Luka Sučić xG 0.07Gonçalo Guedes xG 0.08Orri Óskarsson xG 0.23
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Elche vs Real Sociedad. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Facundo Buonanotte vs Luka Sučić will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.44, Away: 0.43. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Generated 2026-09-07 13:31:51 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting