Sevilla vs Valencia
LaLiga · 20260911 · 4-2-3-1 vs 5-3-2
Predicted 1-0Winner: SevillaConfidence 0.63λ home/away 1.17 / 1.02Most-likely P 13.0%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
XGBoost Reasoning & FBref Dataset TracingAntagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Sevilla vs Valencia. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 5-3-2 (duel lambdas: Home 1.166, Away 0.626). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.166, Away 1.020 (most likely score 1-0).
Home Starters 11/11 XGBoost (6 FBref) Away Starters 11/11 XGBoost (9 FBref) Bench Modeled H: 7 / A: 7 Duel λ (H/A) 1.17 / 0.63 Final λ (H/A) 1.17 / 1.02
FBref Team Priors: Sevilla (Gls/90: 2.0, GA/90: 2.0 → E[λ]: 0.489) vs Valencia (Gls/90: 0.3333333333333333, GA/90: 0.33 → E[λ]: 0.494) | Blend Weight: 0.228
Modeling Pipeline Stages (5 layers)
- 1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling
- 2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)
- 3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups
- 4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)
- 5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction
Standing & form context
| Metric | Sevilla | Valencia |
|---|
| League position | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| Points per game | 1.75 | 0.25 |
| Attack index | 1.46 | 0.21 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.87 | 1.25 |
| Form multiplier | 1.05 | 0.95 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.53 | 0.63 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Sevilla λ | Valencia λ |
|---|
| FBref Squad Prior E[λ] (weight 0.228) | 0.489 | 0.494 |
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.166 | 0.650 |
| Pre-calibration (Micro-duels) | 1.166 | 0.626 |
| Final λ | 1.166 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-0 | 13.0% |
| 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 0-0 | 11.4% |
| 0-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 7.8% |
| Home win | 39.0% |
| Draw | 29.4% |
| Away win | 31.6% |
| Over 2.5 | 37.4% |
| BTTS yes | 44.1% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Sevilla (39.0%), fair total 2.19, fair spread 0.15
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Sevilla — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec | Model / FBref Prior |
|---|
| Youssouf Fofana | M | 38 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 1959% | 2 | 0.5 | 7.2 | 31.0 | 2 | XGBoost M_service |
| Lucien Agoumé | M | 92 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 866% | 1 | 0.4 | 7.1 | 56.0 | 5 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Gabriel Suazo | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 603% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.5 | 53.8 | 5 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Kike Salas | D | 92 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 202% | 1 | 0.8 | 6.8 | 50.0 | 4 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Andrés Castrin | D | 70 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 565% | 1 | 0.2 | 6.8 | 40.0 | 5 | XGBoost D_service |
| Juan Iglesias | D | 89 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 113% | 2 | 0.6 | 6.5 | 53.6 | 5 | XGBoost D_service |
| Odysseas Vlachodimos | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 54.8 | 5 | FBref Prior G_service |
| Miguel Sierra | M | 64 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 250% | 4 | 1.2 | 6.8 | 47.7 | 6 | XGBoost M_service |
| Lucas Stassin | F | 37 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.20 | ok | 2 | 1.0 | 7.3 | 37.0 | 2 | XGBoost F_service |
| Jon Guridi | M | 62 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 68% | 1 | 0.6 | 6.6 | 51.0 | 5 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Robbie Ure | F | 69 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.07 | 367% | 2 | 0.8 | 6.5 | 50.6 | 5 | FBref Prior F_service |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.17 | | 17 | | 6.8 | | |
Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)
| Player | Pos | Exp Min | App Prob | Substitute Modeling Details |
|---|
| Fran González | G | 4.4m | 10.9% | Market-value substitute prior |
| José Ángel Carmona | D | 14.0m | 31.6% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Arouna Sangante | D | 13.8m | 22.2% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Rubén Vargas | M | 21.7m | 70.2% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Oso | M | 22.3m | 51.5% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Isaac Romero | F | 30.1m | 59.3% | Market-value substitute prior |
Valencia — projected line vs season baseline (5-3-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec | Model / FBref Prior |
|---|
| Arnaut Danjuma | F | 66 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.21 | 32% | 3 | 1.7 | 6.7 | 46.2 | 6 | FBref Prior F_service |
| Harvey Elliott | M | 38 | 0 | 0.07 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 22.0 | 3 | XGBoost M_service |
| Filip Ugrinić | M | 70 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 78% | 2 | 1.0 | 6.8 | 44.0 | 6 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Javier Guerra | M | 80 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 231% | 2 | 0.5 | 7.2 | 43.5 | 6 | FBref Prior M_service |
| José Luis Gayà | D | 52 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 22.2 | 6 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Arnau Martínez | D | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 30.5 | 4 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Pepelu | M | 66 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 1178% | 0 | 0.1 | 6.9 | 38.3 | 7 | XGBoost M_service |
| César Tárrega | D | 77 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 283% | 1 | 0.5 | 6.8 | 44.8 | 6 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Pablo Maffeo | D | 43 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 38.6 | 5 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Stole Dimitrievski | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 43.2 | 6 | FBref Prior G_service |
| Ryunosuke Sato | M | 58 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 217% | 2 | 0.8 | 6.6 | 42.5 | 6 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Team totals | 0 | 1.02 | | 10 | | 6.8 | | |
Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)
| Player | Pos | Exp Min | App Prob | Substitute Modeling Details |
|---|
| Kayne van Oevelen | G | 4.4m | 10.9% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Justin De Haas | D | 13.8m | 22.2% | Market-value substitute prior |
| José Copete | D | 13.7m | 30.2% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Diego López | M | 22.3m | 51.3% | Market-value substitute prior |
| André Almeida | M | 22.1m | 50.6% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Hugo Duro | F | 22.6m | 59.9% | Market-value substitute prior |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Youssouf Fofana vs Javier Guerra will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.35, Away: 0.49. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 49.8% / 50.2%, dominance ratio 0.48, key duel: Youssouf Fofana vs Javier Guerra
Miguel Sierra xG 0.08Youssouf Fofana xG 0.06Lucas Stassin xG 0.15Arnaut Danjuma xG 0.21José Luis Gayà xG 0.07Filip Ugrinić xG 0.09
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Sevilla vs Valencia. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Youssouf Fofana vs Javier Guerra will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.35, Away: 0.49. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.