Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data

Slate 20260914 · 2 match(es)

How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.

All matches overview

Match	Score	Winner	H / D / A	O2.5	BTTS	Conf	λ H/A	Actual	Result
Villarreal vs Real Betis LaLiga	1-0	Villarreal	42.6% / 28.2% / 29.2%	40.7%	46.5%	0.64	1.29 / 1.02	-	pending
Leeds vs Newcastle Premier League	0-1	Newcastle	31.6% / 29.4% / 39.0%	37.3%	44.1%	0.62	1.02 / 1.17	-	pending

Match detail

Villarreal vs Real Betis

LaLiga · 20260914 · 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1

Predicted 1-0Winner: VillarrealConfidence 0.64λ home/away 1.29 / 1.02Most-likely P 12.7%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

XGBoost Reasoning & FBref Dataset Tracing

Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Villarreal vs Real Betis. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.292, Away 1.009). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.292, Away 1.020 (most likely score 1-0).

Home Starters 8/11 XGBoost (9 FBref) Away Starters 11/11 XGBoost (10 FBref) Bench Modeled H: 7 / A: 7 Duel λ (H/A) 1.29 / 1.01 Final λ (H/A) 1.29 / 1.02

FBref Team Priors: Villarreal (Gls/90: 1.3333333333333333, GA/90: 1.33 → E[λ]: 1.314) vs Real Betis (Gls/90: 1.3333333333333333, GA/90: 1.33 → E[λ]: 1.314) | Blend Weight: 0.228

Modeling Pipeline Stages (5 layers)

1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling
2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)
3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups
4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)
5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction

Standing & form context

Metric	Villarreal	Real Betis
League position	17.00	4.00
Points per game	0.50	2.25
Attack index	1.25	1.04
Defense (concede) index	1.04	1.67
Form multiplier	0.94	1.06
Standing λ multiplier	1.10	1.26

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Villarreal λ	Real Betis λ
FBref Squad Prior E[λ] (weight 0.228)	1.314	1.314
Pre-competitive-floor	1.292	1.009
Pre-calibration (Micro-duels)	1.292	1.009
Final λ	1.292	1.020

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-0	12.7%
1-1	13.2%
0-0	10.0%
0-1	10.0%
2-1	8.4%

Home win	42.6%
Draw	28.2%
Away win	29.2%
Over 2.5	40.7%
BTTS yes	46.5%

Pregame fair line — favorite Villarreal (42.6%), fair total 2.31, fair spread 0.27

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Villarreal — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec	Model / FBref Prior
Péter Gulácsi	G	90	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	6.8	-	6	FBref Prior G_service
Alexander Freeman	D	40	0	0.00	0.01	100%	1	0.3	6.7	23.3	6	XGBoost D_service
Pau Navarro	D	90	0	0.03	-	n/a	0	0.0	7.0	-	6	FBref Prior D_service
Georges Mikautadze	F	75	0	0.30	0.40	ok	2	2.0	7.4	44.2	6	FBref Prior F_service
Gerard Moreno	F	52	0	0.26	0.23	ok	3	0.8	6.6	46.5	6	FBref Prior F_service
Alberto Moleiro	M	56	0	0.11	0.04	187%	2	0.3	7.6	45.8	6	FBref Prior M_service
Pape Gueye	M	90	0	0.09	0.02	467%	2	0.7	7.5	47.8	6	FBref Prior M_service
Nathan-Dylan Saliba	M	90	0	0.07	0.03	155%		0.2	6.7	19.2	4	XGBoost M_service
Nicolas Pépé	F	90	1	0.33	0.12	182%	3	2.0	6.9	48.8	6	FBref Prior F_service
Sergi Cardona	D	90	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.7	9.8	6	FBref Prior D_service
Renato Veiga	D	95	0	0.00	0.02	100%	1	0.3	7.3	45.3	6	FBref Prior D_service
Team totals			1	1.29			15			7.0

Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)

Player	Pos	Exp Min	App Prob	Substitute Modeling Details
Luiz Júnior	G	4.8m	12.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Carlos Romero	D	14.5m	23.6%	Market-value substitute prior
Santiago Mouriño	D	14.3m	23.2%	Market-value substitute prior
Tajon Buchanan	M	28.2m	57.3%	Market-value substitute prior
Ilias Akhomach	M	18.9m	70.0%	Market-value substitute prior
Tani Oluwaseyi	F	15.9m	72.3%	Market-value substitute prior

Real Betis — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec	Model / FBref Prior
Cucho Hernández	F	65	0.20	0.03	542%	2	0.6	6.9	52.2	5	XGBoost F_service
Pablo Fornals	M	73	0.13	0.05	152%	2	1.2	7.0	54.6	5	FBref Prior M_service
Isco	M	44	0.08	0.08	ok	2	0.8	6.9	52.8	5	FBref Prior M_service
Antony	M	94	0.24	0.18	37%	3	3.8	7.5	57.6	5	FBref Prior M_service
Facundo Bernal	M	72	0.07	0.03	141%	1	0.6	6.8	55.2	5	FBref Prior M_service
Marc Roca	M	81	0.07	0.02	204%	2	0.6	6.8	43.8	5	FBref Prior M_service
Fran García	D	76	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.7	55.0	5	FBref Prior D_service
Marc Bartra	D	76	0.08	0.03	166%	1	0.8	6.5	47.6	5	FBref Prior D_service
Héctor Bellerín	D	71	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.5	51.2	5	FBref Prior D_service
Álvaro Valles	G	89	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	7.3	66.4	5	FBref Prior G_service
Natan	D	95	0.00	0.00	100%	0	0.2	7.1	43.6	5	FBref Prior D_service
Team totals			1.02			16			6.9

Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)

Player	Pos	Exp Min	App Prob	Substitute Modeling Details
Diego Conde	G	4.4m	10.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Valentín Gómez	D	14.0m	22.5%	Market-value substitute prior
Angel Ortiz	D	13.6m	21.8%	Market-value substitute prior
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli	M	23.4m	56.3%	Market-value substitute prior
Nelson Deossa	M	19.9m	57.0%	Market-value substitute prior
Troy Parrott	F	22.8m	54.4%	Market-value substitute prior

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Alberto Moleiro vs Antony will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.40, Away: 0.43. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.

Midfield — possession 52.0% / 48.0%, dominance ratio 0.55, key duel: Alberto Moleiro vs Antony

Georges Mikautadze xG 0.22Pape Gueye xG 0.09Alberto Moleiro xG 0.09Pablo Fornals xG 0.08Antony xG 0.16Isco xG 0.04

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Villarreal vs Real Betis. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 3 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Alberto Moleiro vs Antony will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.40, Away: 0.43. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.

Leeds vs Newcastle

Premier League · 20260914 · 3-5-2 vs 4-2-3-1

Predicted 0-1Winner: NewcastleConfidence 0.62λ home/away 1.02 / 1.17Most-likely P 13.0%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

XGBoost Reasoning & FBref Dataset Tracing

Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Leeds vs Newcastle. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-5-2 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 0.930, Away 1.165). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.020, Away 1.165 (most likely score 0-1).

Home Starters 10/11 XGBoost (11 FBref) Away Starters 9/11 XGBoost (9 FBref) Bench Modeled H: 7 / A: 7 Duel λ (H/A) 0.93 / 1.17 Final λ (H/A) 1.02 / 1.17

FBref Team Priors: Leeds United (Gls/90: 1.0, GA/90: 1.0 → E[λ]: 1.481) vs Newcastle United (Gls/90: 2.0, GA/90: 2.0 → E[λ]: 1.481) | Blend Weight: 0.192

Modeling Pipeline Stages (5 layers)

1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling
2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)
3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups
4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)
5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction

Standing & form context

Metric	Leeds	Newcastle
League position	9.00	7.00
Points per game	1.67	1.67
Attack index	1.25	1.25
Defense (concede) index	0.83	0.83
Form multiplier	1.00	1.00
Standing λ multiplier	1.02	1.02

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Leeds λ	Newcastle λ
FBref Squad Prior E[λ] (weight 0.192)	1.481	1.481
Pre-competitive-floor	0.930	1.165
Pre-calibration (Micro-duels)	0.930	1.165
Final λ	1.020	1.165

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
0-1	13.0%
1-1	13.5%
0-0	11.4%
1-0	11.3%
1-2	7.8%

Home win	31.6%
Draw	29.4%
Away win	39.0%
Over 2.5	37.3%
BTTS yes	44.1%

Pregame fair line — favorite Newcastle (39.0%), fair total 2.19, fair spread -0.14

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Leeds — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec	Model / FBref Prior
Noah Okafor	F	55	0.10	0.02	434%	2	0.5	7.2	50.8	4	FBref Prior F_service
Gabriel Gudmundsson	D	90	0.02	-	n/a	0	0.0	7.1	22.7	3	FBref Prior D_service
Ao Tanaka	M	60	0.06	0.13	52%	1	0.5	6.9	34.8	4	FBref Prior M_service
Ethan Ampadu	M	95	0.04	0.00	1109%	2	0.2	7.2	51.8	4	FBref Prior M_service
Anton Stach	M	95	0.16	0.12	34%	2	1.2	7.3	53.8	4	FBref Prior M_service
Jayden Bogle	M	75	0.06	0.23	74%	1	0.2	7.0	51.2	4	FBref Prior M_service
Tarik Muharemović	D	95	0.00	0.02	100%	0	0.2	7.2	53.0	4	FBref Prior D_service
Nico Elvedi	D	73	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.8	33.8	4	FBref Prior D_service
James Justin	D	91	0.13	0.04	202%	2	0.8	6.9	52.2	4	FBref Prior D_service
James Trafford	G	95	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	7.6	52.2	4	FBref Prior G_service
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	F	89	0.31	0.40	ok	2	1.5	7.0	51.0	4	FBref Prior F_service
Team totals			1.02			14			7.1

Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)

Player	Pos	Exp Min	App Prob	Substitute Modeling Details
Lucas Perri	G	4.7m	12.2%	Market-value substitute prior
Joe Rodon	D	14.3m	23.2%	Market-value substitute prior
Jaka Bijol	D	14.3m	23.1%	Market-value substitute prior
Harry Wilson	M	35.1m	52.0%	Market-value substitute prior
Sean Longstaff	M	15.1m	70.3%	Market-value substitute prior
Jean-Mattéo Bahoya	F	26.2m	60.0%	Market-value substitute prior

Newcastle — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec	Model / FBref Prior
Yoane Wissa	F	90	0	0.23	0.34	31%	3	1.5	7.1	51.8	4	FBref Prior F_service
Harvey Barnes	F	90	0	0.25	0.06	351%	3	1.0	7.3	51.8	4	FBref Prior F_service
Joe Willock	M	57	0	0.15	0.13	ok	2	1.5	7.0	51.0	4	FBref Prior M_service
Anthony Elanga	F	90	1	0.35	0.10	233%	3	1.0	7.3	55.5	4	FBref Prior F_service
Lewis Miley	M	81	0	0.04	0.01	238%	1	0.2	7.3	52.0	4	FBref Prior M_service
Nico González	M	81	0	0.04	-	n/a		0.0	7.5	32.5	4	XGBoost M_service
Lewis Hall	D	95	0	0.00	0.01	100%	1	0.5	7.2	58.2	4	FBref Prior D_service
Sven Botman	D	95	0	0.00	0.00	100%	0	0.2	7.3	50.5	4	FBref Prior D_service
Malick Thiaw	D	95	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	7.2	49.0	4	FBref Prior D_service
Tino Livramento	D	1	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.4	-	2	XGBoost D_service
Lukáš Horníček	G	93	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	7.2	58.0	4	FBref Prior G_service
Team totals			1	1.17			15			7.2

Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)

Player	Pos	Exp Min	App Prob	Substitute Modeling Details
Ewen Jaouen	G	4.8m	13.0%	Market-value substitute prior
Amar Dedić	D	14.3m	33.3%	Market-value substitute prior
Dan Burn	D	13.6m	30.1%	Market-value substitute prior
Bazoumana Touré	M	23.5m	56.7%	Market-value substitute prior
Jacob Ramsey	M	23.2m	55.6%	Market-value substitute prior
Nick Woltemade	F	23.1m	75.2%	Market-value substitute prior

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Ethan Ampadu vs Nico González will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.27, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 50.3% / 49.7%, dominance ratio 0.49, key duel: Ethan Ampadu vs Nico González

Noah Okafor xG 0.11Jayden Bogle xG 0.05Ethan Ampadu xG 0.05Joe Willock xG 0.13Harvey Barnes xG 0.24Lewis Miley xG 0.04

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Leeds vs Newcastle. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 3 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Ethan Ampadu vs Nico González will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.27, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Generated 2026-09-14 13:35:17 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting