Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260915 · 3 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol LaLiga | 0-1 | Espanyol | 29.9% / 26.8% / 43.2% | 46.1% | 50.8% | 0.64 | 1.12 / 1.40 | - | pending |
| Elche vs Real Madrid LaLiga | 1-4 | Real Madrid | 4.0% / 6.6% / 89.4% | 90.0% | 63.2% | 0.79 | 1.02 / 4.32 | - | pending |
| Alavés vs Valencia LaLiga | 1-0 | Alavés | 36.7% / 30.1% / 33.2% | 35.2% | 42.5% | 0.62 | 1.09 / 1.02 | - | pending |
Match detail
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
LaLiga · 20260915 · 4-4-2 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 0-1Winner: EspanyolConfidence 0.64λ home/away 1.12 / 1.40Most-likely P 11.2%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
XGBoost Reasoning & FBref Dataset TracingAntagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-4-2 vs 4-4-2 (duel lambdas: Home 1.118, Away 1.399). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.118, Away 1.399 (most likely score 0-1).
Home Starters 10/11 XGBoost (6 FBref) Away Starters 11/11 XGBoost (9 FBref) Bench Modeled H: 7 / A: 7 Duel λ (H/A) 1.12 / 1.40 Final λ (H/A) 1.12 / 1.40
FBref Team Priors: Rayo Vallecano (Gls/90: 1.3333333333333333, GA/90: 1.33 → E[λ]: 1.649) vs Espanyol (Gls/90: 1.6666666666666667, GA/90: 1.67 → E[λ]: 1.642) | Blend Weight: 0.228
Modeling Pipeline Stages (5 layers)
- 1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling
- 2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)
- 3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups
- 4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)
- 5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction
Standing & form context
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | Espanyol |
|---|
| League position | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Attack index | 1.46 | 1.25 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.04 | 2.08 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.19 | 1.49 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Rayo Vallecano λ | Espanyol λ |
|---|
| FBref Squad Prior E[λ] (weight 0.228) | 1.649 | 1.642 |
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.118 | 1.399 |
| Pre-calibration (Micro-duels) | 1.118 | 1.399 |
| Final λ | 1.118 | 1.399 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-1 | 11.2% |
| 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-0 | 8.9% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% |
| 0-0 | 8.2% |
| Home win | 29.9% |
| Draw | 26.8% |
| Away win | 43.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 46.1% |
| BTTS yes | 50.8% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Espanyol (43.2%), fair total 2.52, fair spread -0.28
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Rayo Vallecano — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec | Model / FBref Prior |
|---|
| Alemão | F | 24 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 238% | 2 | 0.4 | 6.7 | 39.4 | 5 | XGBoost F_service |
| Giorgi Tsitaishvili | M | 16 | 0 | 0.10 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.7 | 16.2 | 4 | XGBoost M_service |
| Álvaro García | M | 66 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 32% | 2 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 43.7 | 6 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Óscar Valentín | M | 64 | 0 | 0.05 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 43.8 | 6 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Unai López | M | 82 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 462% | 2 | 0.3 | 6.8 | 46.8 | 6 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Fran Pérez | M | 31 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 1012% | 2 | 0.2 | 6.6 | 49.8 | 5 | XGBoost M_service |
| Adrià Pedrosa | D | 65 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.5 | 6.6 | 31.2 | 4 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Pathé Ismaël Ciss | M | 88 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 464% | | 0.2 | 6.7 | 43.7 | 6 | XGBoost M_service |
| Florian Lejeune | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 1.0 | 6.7 | 43.3 | 6 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Andrei Rațiu | D | 93 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.08 | 228% | 2 | 0.8 | 6.9 | 32.8 | 6 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Emil Audero | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.8 | - | 3 | Prior G_service |
| Team totals | 0 | 1.12 | | 13 | | 6.7 | | |
Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)
| Player | Pos | Exp Min | App Prob | Substitute Modeling Details |
|---|
| Augusto Batalla | G | 4.5m | 13.4% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Mujaid Sadick | D | 13.7m | 30.3% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Marash Kumbulla | D | 13.6m | 29.9% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Isi Palazón | M | 22.0m | 49.9% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Pedro Díaz | M | 23.1m | 69.2% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Jorge de Frutos | F | 25.7m | 57.6% | Market-value substitute prior |
Espanyol — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec | Model / FBref Prior |
|---|
| Omar El Hilali | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 55.4 | 5 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Marko Dmitrović | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 57.0 | 5 | FBref Prior G_service |
| Clemens Riedel | D | 56 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.6 | 48.8 | 4 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Leandro Cabrera | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 34.0 | 2 | XGBoost D_service |
| Bryan Zaragoza | F | 15 | 0 | 0.15 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 70.0 | 1 | XGBoost F_service |
| Roger Hinojo | D | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 55.2 | 5 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Roberto Fernández | F | 89 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.32 | 47% | 2 | 1.8 | 6.8 | 59.6 | 5 | FBref Prior F_service |
| Álex Calatrava | M | 71 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.15 | ok | 2 | 1.6 | 6.8 | 54.8 | 5 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Tyrhys Dolan | M | 87 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 295% | 2 | 0.8 | 6.9 | 53.0 | 5 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Edu Expósito | M | 82 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 78% | 2 | 2.0 | 6.9 | 56.6 | 5 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Gabriel Moscardo | M | 52 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 645% | 2 | 0.2 | 6.8 | 27.6 | 5 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.40 | | 14 | | 6.8 | | |
Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)
| Player | Pos | Exp Min | App Prob | Substitute Modeling Details |
|---|
| Angel Fortuno | G | 4.4m | 10.9% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Quilindschy Hartman | D | 14.2m | 32.5% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Vanja Drkušić | D | 19.9m | 41.2% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Urko González | M | 22.4m | 31.5% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Javi Puado | M | 22.2m | 50.8% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Marcos Fernández | F | 18.5m | 71.9% | Market-value substitute prior |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Giorgi Tsitaishvili vs Tyrhys Dolan will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.29, Away: 0.42. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.
Midfield — possession 49.3% / 50.7%, dominance ratio 0.50, key duel: Giorgi Tsitaishvili vs Tyrhys Dolan
Alemão xG 0.11Álvaro García xG 0.08Fran Pérez xG 0.05Bryan Zaragoza xG 0.09Tyrhys Dolan xG 0.10Edu Expósito xG 0.11
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Giorgi Tsitaishvili vs Tyrhys Dolan will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.29, Away: 0.42. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.
Elche vs Real Madrid
LaLiga · 20260915 · 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-4Winner: Real MadridConfidence 0.79λ home/away 1.02 / 4.32Most-likely P 7.2%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
XGBoost Reasoning & FBref Dataset TracingAntagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Elche vs Real Madrid. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.104, Away 3.564). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.024, Away 4.316 (most likely score 1-4).
Home Starters 10/11 XGBoost (9 FBref) Away Starters 11/11 XGBoost (11 FBref) Bench Modeled H: 7 / A: 7 Duel λ (H/A) 1.10 / 3.56 Final λ (H/A) 1.02 / 4.32
FBref Team Priors: Elche (Gls/90: 1.0, GA/90: 1.0 → E[λ]: 2.467) vs Real Madrid (Gls/90: 3.0, GA/90: 3.33 → E[λ]: 2.222) | Blend Weight: 0.228
Modeling Pipeline Stages (5 layers)
- 1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling
- 2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)
- 3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups
- 4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)
- 5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction
Standing & form context
| Metric | Elche | Real Madrid |
|---|
| League position | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| Points per game | 0.25 | 2.25 |
| Attack index | 1.04 | 2.08 |
| Defense (concede) index | 0.62 | 2.50 |
| Form multiplier | 0.94 | 1.06 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 0.83 | 1.65 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Elche λ | Real Madrid λ |
|---|
| FBref Squad Prior E[λ] (weight 0.228) | 2.467 | 2.222 |
| Pre-mismatch | 1.104 | 3.564 |
| Pre-calibration (Micro-duels) | 1.104 | 3.564 |
| Final λ | 1.024 | 4.316 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-4 | 7.2% |
| 0-4 | 7.0% |
| 1-3 | 6.7% |
| 0-3 | 6.5% |
| 1-5 | 6.2% |
| Home win | 4.0% |
| Draw | 6.6% |
| Away win | 89.4% |
| Over 2.5 | 90.0% |
| BTTS yes | 63.2% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Real Madrid (89.4%), fair total 5.34, fair spread -3.29
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Elche — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec | Model / FBref Prior |
|---|
| Matías Dituro | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 48.2 | 5 | FBref Prior G_service |
| Abiel Osorio | F | 34 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.26 | ok | 3 | 1.5 | 6.3 | 30.5 | 2 | FBref Prior F_service |
| Germán Valera | M | 85 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 6069% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.8 | 50.8 | 5 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Facundo Buonanotte | M | 50 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 178% | 2 | 1.4 | 6.8 | 37.6 | 5 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Roy Revivo | D | 9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 32% | 1 | 1.0 | 5.9 | 62.0 | 1 | XGBoost D_service |
| Gonzalo Villar | M | 83 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 152% | 1 | 0.8 | 6.8 | 54.4 | 5 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Javi Morcillo | M | 42 | 0 | 0.05 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 39.2 | 5 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Rubén Sánchez | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.8 | - | 1 | Prior D_service |
| Víctor Chust | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 100% | 0 | 0.4 | 6.9 | 52.8 | 5 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Federico Redondo | M | 69 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 234% | 1 | 0.2 | 6.7 | 30.5 | 4 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Buba Sangaré | D | 85 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.4 | 48.6 | 5 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 9 | | 6.7 | | |
Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)
| Player | Pos | Exp Min | App Prob | Substitute Modeling Details |
|---|
| Alejandro Iturbe | G | 4.4m | 10.9% | Market-value substitute prior |
| David Affengruber | D | 14.3m | 23.1% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Kevin Lomónaco | D | 13.8m | 31.0% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Martim Neto | M | 24.8m | 50.0% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Marc Aguado | M | 22.0m | 30.8% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Ezequiel Ponce | F | 30.1m | 72.0% | Market-value substitute prior |
Real Madrid — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec | Model / FBref Prior |
|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 95 | 3 | 2.13 | 0.86 | 149% | 3 | 4.4 | 8.5 | 45.0 | 7 | FBref Prior F_service |
| Vinícius Júnior | F | 95 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.27 | 203% | 3 | 1.4 | 7.9 | 36.5 | 8 | FBref Prior F_service |
| Jude Bellingham | M | 94 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.12 | 236% | 2 | 1.6 | 7.9 | 46.7 | 7 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Arda Güler | M | 59 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 44% | 3 | 0.9 | 7.7 | 43.4 | 7 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Bernardo Silva | M | 53 | 0 | 0.11 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.2 | 37.6 | 7 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Eduardo Camavinga | M | 48 | 0 | 0.11 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 38.7 | 7 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 69 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.4 | 46.5 | 6 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Dean Huijsen | D | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 100% | 1 | 0.7 | 7.7 | 41.6 | 7 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Antonio Rüdiger | D | 89 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 1890% | 1 | 0.1 | 6.8 | 10.7 | 7 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Thibaut Courtois | G | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 38.0 | 7 | FBref Prior G_service |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | D | 46 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.3 | 7.3 | 30.6 | 7 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Team totals | 4 | 4.32 | | 15 | | 7.5 | | |
Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)
| Player | Pos | Exp Min | App Prob | Substitute Modeling Details |
|---|
| Andriy Lunin | G | 4.8m | 12.7% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Álvaro Carreras | D | 15.1m | 24.9% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Ibrahima Konaté | D | 15.0m | 24.7% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Federico Valverde | M | 23.8m | 34.3% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | M | 23.7m | 57.7% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Yan Diomande | F | 23.2m | 75.6% | Market-value substitute prior |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Facundo Buonanotte vs Jude Bellingham). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.36, Away: 1.29. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 46.4% / 53.6%, dominance ratio 0.38, key duel: Facundo Buonanotte vs Jude Bellingham
Abiel Osorio xG 0.14Gonzalo Villar xG 0.05Federico Redondo xG 0.03Jude Bellingham xG 0.18Arda Güler xG 0.10Kylian Mbappé xG 0.73
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Elche vs Real Madrid. Most likely scoreline: 1-4. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Facundo Buonanotte vs Jude Bellingham). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.36, Away: 1.29. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Alavés vs Valencia
LaLiga · 20260915 · 3-5-2 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 1-0Winner: AlavésConfidence 0.62λ home/away 1.09 / 1.02Most-likely P 13.1%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
XGBoost Reasoning & FBref Dataset TracingAntagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Alavés vs Valencia. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-5-2 vs 4-4-2 (duel lambdas: Home 1.088, Away 0.648). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.088, Away 1.020 (most likely score 1-0).
Home Starters 11/11 XGBoost (9 FBref) Away Starters 11/11 XGBoost (10 FBref) Bench Modeled H: 7 / A: 7 Duel λ (H/A) 1.09 / 0.65 Final λ (H/A) 1.09 / 1.02
FBref Team Priors: Deportivo Alavés (Gls/90: 1.6666666666666667, GA/90: 1.67 → E[λ]: 0.407) vs Valencia (Gls/90: 0.3333333333333333, GA/90: 0.33 → E[λ]: 0.412) | Blend Weight: 0.228
Modeling Pipeline Stages (5 layers)
- 1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling
- 2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)
- 3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups
- 4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)
- 5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction
Standing & form context
| Metric | Alavés | Valencia |
|---|
| League position | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 0.25 |
| Attack index | 2.08 | 0.21 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.87 | 0.62 |
| Form multiplier | 1.06 | 0.94 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.65 | 0.63 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Alavés λ | Valencia λ |
|---|
| FBref Squad Prior E[λ] (weight 0.228) | 0.407 | 0.412 |
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.088 | 0.650 |
| Pre-calibration (Micro-duels) | 1.088 | 0.648 |
| Final λ | 1.088 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-0 | 13.1% |
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 0-0 | 12.3% |
| 0-1 | 12.3% |
| 2-1 | 7.3% |
| Home win | 36.7% |
| Draw | 30.1% |
| Away win | 33.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 35.2% |
| BTTS yes | 42.5% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Alavés (36.7%), fair total 2.11, fair spread 0.07
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Alavés — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec | Model / FBref Prior |
|---|
| Toni Martínez | F | 72 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.69 | 76% | 2 | 2.0 | 6.7 | 63.0 | 2 | FBref Prior F_service |
| Lucas Boyé | F | 76 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.22 | 65% | 3 | 2.0 | 7.6 | 60.2 | 4 | FBref Prior F_service |
| Abderrahman Rebbach | M | 76 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 2173% | | 0.2 | 6.6 | 47.8 | 4 | XGBoost M_service |
| Carles Aleñá | M | 40 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 97% | 1 | 0.2 | 6.7 | 33.0 | 4 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Pablo Ibáñez | M | 89 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.09 | ok | 1 | 1.5 | 6.8 | 54.5 | 4 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Ángel Pérez | M | 79 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 90% | 1 | 1.0 | 6.8 | 57.2 | 4 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Jonny Otto | D | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.4 | 52.0 | 4 | XGBoost D_service |
| Ville Koski | D | 85 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 48.8 | 4 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Nahuel Tenaglia | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.8 | 6.7 | 49.8 | 4 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Antonio Sivera | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 56.5 | 4 | FBref Prior G_service |
| Antonio Blanco | M | 91 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 126% | 1 | 0.8 | 6.9 | 53.0 | 4 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.09 | | 10 | | 6.8 | | |
Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)
| Player | Pos | Exp Min | App Prob | Substitute Modeling Details |
|---|
| Adrián Rodríguez | G | 4.4m | 10.9% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Youssef Enriquez | D | 13.6m | 30.2% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Nicolás Valentini | D | 13.6m | 29.9% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Miguel Rodríguez | M | 22.0m | 50.1% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Ander Guevara | M | 22.0m | 49.9% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Aitor Mañas | F | 25.3m | 55.9% | Market-value substitute prior |
Valencia — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec | Model / FBref Prior |
|---|
| Filip Ugrinić | M | 70 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 111% | 2 | 1.0 | 6.8 | 44.0 | 6 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Javier Guerra | M | 80 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 295% | 2 | 0.5 | 7.2 | 43.5 | 6 | FBref Prior M_service |
| David Otorbi | F | 38 | 0 | 0.15 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 49.8 | 4 | FBref Prior F_service |
| Jesús Vázquez | D | 80 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.4 | 6.4 | 51.8 | 5 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Justin De Haas | D | 45 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 33.0 | 2 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Iker Cordoba | D | 27 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 5.9 | 11.4 | 5 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Arnau Martínez | D | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 30.5 | 4 | FBref Prior D_service |
| Stole Dimitrievski | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 43.2 | 6 | FBref Prior G_service |
| Ryunosuke Sato | M | 58 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 278% | 1 | 0.8 | 6.6 | 42.5 | 6 | FBref Prior M_service |
| Harvey Elliott | M | 38 | 0 | 0.09 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.0 | 22.0 | 3 | XGBoost M_service |
| Hugo Duro | F | 28 | 0 | 0.20 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 51.6 | 5 | FBref Prior F_service |
| Team totals | 0 | 1.02 | | 10 | | 6.7 | | |
Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)
| Player | Pos | Exp Min | App Prob | Substitute Modeling Details |
|---|
| Kayne van Oevelen | G | 4.4m | 10.9% | Market-value substitute prior |
| César Tárrega | D | 13.9m | 22.3% | Market-value substitute prior |
| José Copete | D | 13.7m | 30.2% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Diego López | M | 22.3m | 51.3% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Pepelu | M | 22.2m | 50.8% | Market-value substitute prior |
| Umar Sadiq | F | 30.6m | 59.2% | Market-value substitute prior |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Antonio Blanco vs Javier Guerra will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.46, Away: 0.43. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.
Midfield — possession 49.0% / 51.0%, dominance ratio 0.47, key duel: Antonio Blanco vs Javier Guerra
Toni Martínez xG 0.15Carles Aleñá xG 0.04Ángel Pérez xG 0.14David Otorbi xG 0.10Filip Ugrinić xG 0.10Ryunosuke Sato xG 0.10
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Alavés vs Valencia. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Antonio Blanco vs Javier Guerra will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.46, Away: 0.43. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.
Generated 2026-09-15 13:37:45 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting