Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data

Slate 20260916 · 4 match(es)

How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.

All matches overview

Match	Score	Winner	H / D / A	O2.5	BTTS	Conf	λ H/A	Actual	Result
Levante vs Athletic Club LaLiga	0-1	Athletic Club	27.6% / 27.3% / 45.2%	43.2%	48.0%	0.66	1.02 / 1.39	-	pending
Atl. Madrid vs Osasuna LaLiga	2-1	Atl. Madrid	60.8% / 20.8% / 18.4%	60.4%	56.9%	0.7	2.07 / 1.05	-	pending
Barcelona vs R. Racing Club LaLiga	3-0	Barcelona	85.2% / 9.9% / 4.9%	73.7%	47.1%	0.78	3.16 / 0.68	-	pending
Deportivo vs Sevilla LaLiga	1-0	Deportivo	44.6% / 27.5% / 28.0%	42.6%	47.7%	0.65	1.36 / 1.02	-	pending

Match detail

Levante vs Athletic Club

LaLiga · 20260916 · 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1

Predicted 0-1Winner: Athletic ClubConfidence 0.66λ home/away 1.02 / 1.39Most-likely P 12.4%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

XGBoost Reasoning & FBref Dataset Tracing

Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Levante vs Athletic Club. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 0.977, Away 1.385). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.020, Away 1.385 (most likely score 0-1).

Home Starters 11/11 XGBoost (8 FBref) Away Starters 11/11 XGBoost (10 FBref) Bench Modeled H: 7 / A: 7 Duel λ (H/A) 0.98 / 1.39 Final λ (H/A) 1.02 / 1.39

FBref Team Priors: Levante UD (Gls/90: 1.6666666666666667, GA/90: 1.67 → E[λ]: 1.235) vs Athletic Club (Gls/90: 1.0, GA/90: 1.0 → E[λ]: 1.237) | Blend Weight: 0.228

Modeling Pipeline Stages (5 layers)

1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling
2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)
3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups
4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)
5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction

Standing & form context

Metric	Levante	Athletic Club
League position	11.00	10.00
Points per game	1.25	1.50
Attack index	1.04	1.25
Defense (concede) index	1.04	1.04
Form multiplier	0.98	1.01
Standing λ multiplier	1.03	1.12

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Levante λ	Athletic Club λ
FBref Squad Prior E[λ] (weight 0.228)	1.235	1.237
Pre-competitive-floor	0.977	1.385
Pre-calibration (Micro-duels)	0.977	1.385
Final λ	1.020	1.385

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
0-1	12.4%
1-1	12.9%
0-0	9.1%
1-0	9.1%
1-2	8.8%

Home win	27.6%
Draw	27.3%
Away win	45.2%
Over 2.5	43.2%
BTTS yes	48.0%

Pregame fair line — favorite Athletic Club (45.2%), fair total 2.40, fair spread -0.36

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Levante — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec	Model / FBref Prior
Thiago Fernández	M	75	0.17	0.11	46%	2	1.2	6.8	51.5	4	FBref Prior M_service
Roger Brugué	M	86	0.10	0.50	80%		2.0	6.7	52.0	4	XGBoost M_service
Enzo Bardeli	M	69	0.05	0.01	329%	0	0.4	6.8	54.0	5	FBref Prior M_service
Oriol Rey	M	88	0.04	0.00	1144%	1	0.2	6.7	53.6	5	FBref Prior M_service
Jon Ander Olasagasti	M	87	0.17	0.12	38%		1.0	6.8	57.8	5	XGBoost M_service
Manuel Sánchez	D	89	0.00	0.00	100%	0	0.2	6.6	54.8	5	XGBoost D_service
Aïssa Mandi	D	88	0.00	0.01	100%	0	0.2	6.7	56.8	5	FBref Prior D_service
Adrián de la Fuente	D	89	0.12	0.09	43%	1	1.2	6.7	59.2	5	FBref Prior D_service
Nacho Pérez	D	68	0.00	0.02	100%	0	0.2	6.6	53.8	5	FBref Prior D_service
Mathew Ryan	G	88	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	7.2	61.8	5	FBref Prior G_service
Iván Romero	F	71	0.26	0.33	ok	2	2.2	6.8	51.4	5	FBref Prior F_service
Team totals			1.02			7			6.8

Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)

Player	Pos	Exp Min	App Prob	Substitute Modeling Details
Pablo Cunat Campos	G	4.4m	10.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Axel Tape	D	13.8m	31.1%	Market-value substitute prior
Ifeanyi Ndukwe	D	13.6m	29.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Carlos Álvarez	M	22.6m	31.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Hugo Sotelo	M	22.1m	50.3%	Market-value substitute prior
Etta Eyong	F	25.9m	58.5%	Market-value substitute prior

Athletic Club — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec	Model / FBref Prior
Maroan Sannadi	F	31	1	0.27	-	n/a	2	0.0	6.4	15.8	4	FBref Prior F_service
Nico Williams	M	50	0	0.26	0.18	45%	2	1.2	7.5	54.8	5	FBref Prior M_service
Oihan Sancet	M	88	0	0.48	0.31	53%	2	2.2	7.4	55.0	5	FBref Prior M_service
Álex Berenguer	M	58	0	0.17	0.04	303%	2	1.2	6.8	69.0	4	FBref Prior M_service
Beñat Gerenabarrena	M	69	0	0.06	0.01	889%	1	0.2	6.7	53.6	5	FBref Prior M_service
Mikel Jauregizar	M	44	0	0.06	0.01	614%	0	0.2	7.2	51.0	4	FBref Prior M_service
Johaneko Louis Jean	D	32	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.6	34.8	4	XGBoost D_service
Aymeric Laporte	D	76	0	0.00	0.09	100%	1	0.4	6.8	54.6	5	FBref Prior D_service
Aitor Paredes	D	69	0	0.00	0.07	100%	0	0.2	6.8	54.8	4	FBref Prior D_service
Hugo Rincón	D	52	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.6	33.2	4	FBref Prior D_service
Unai Simón	G	94	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	8.0	60.2	5	FBref Prior G_service
Team totals			1	1.39			10			7.0

Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)

Player	Pos	Exp Min	App Prob	Substitute Modeling Details
Alex Padilla	G	4.4m	10.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Dani Vivian	D	14.3m	33.0%	Market-value substitute prior
Jesús Areso	D	13.7m	21.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Beñat Prados	M	22.6m	52.5%	Market-value substitute prior
Peio Canales	M	24.3m	44.2%	Market-value substitute prior
Gorka Guruzeta	F	25.7m	46.4%	Market-value substitute prior

Antagonist / tactical summary

Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Enzo Bardeli vs Nico Williams). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.42, Away: 0.77. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.

Midfield — possession 47.4% / 52.6%, dominance ratio 0.43, key duel: Enzo Bardeli vs Nico Williams

Iván Romero xG 0.23Oriol Rey xG 0.04Thiago Fernández xG 0.16Nico Williams xG 0.18Oihan Sancet xG 0.32Álex Berenguer xG 0.10

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Levante vs Athletic Club. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 3 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Enzo Bardeli vs Nico Williams). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.42, Away: 0.77. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.

Atl. Madrid vs Osasuna

LaLiga · 20260916 · 3-5-2 vs 4-2-3-1

Predicted 2-1Winner: Atl. MadridConfidence 0.7λ home/away 2.07 / 1.05Most-likely P 9.9%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

XGBoost Reasoning & FBref Dataset Tracing

Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Atl. Madrid vs Osasuna. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-5-2 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.829, Away 0.983). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 2.072, Away 1.050 (most likely score 2-1).

Home Starters 11/11 XGBoost (9 FBref) Away Starters 10/11 XGBoost (9 FBref) Bench Modeled H: 7 / A: 7 Duel λ (H/A) 1.83 / 0.98 Final λ (H/A) 2.07 / 1.05

FBref Team Priors: Atlético Madrid (Gls/90: 2.333333333333333, GA/90: 2.33 → E[λ]: 1.728) vs Osasuna (Gls/90: 1.0, GA/90: 1.0 → E[λ]: 1.726) | Blend Weight: 0.228

Modeling Pipeline Stages (5 layers)

1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling
2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)
3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups
4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)
5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction

Standing & form context

Metric	Atl. Madrid	Osasuna
League position	6.00	8.00
Points per game	1.75	1.75
Attack index	1.46	1.04
Defense (concede) index	1.25	1.25
Form multiplier	1.00	1.00
Standing λ multiplier	1.28	1.11

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Atl. Madrid λ	Osasuna λ
FBref Squad Prior E[λ] (weight 0.228)	1.728	1.726
Pre-mismatch	1.829	0.983
Pre-competitive-floor	2.072	0.942
Pre-calibration (Micro-duels)	1.829	0.983
Final λ	2.072	1.050

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
2-1	9.9%
1-1	9.6%
2-0	9.5%
1-0	9.1%
3-1	6.9%

Home win	60.8%
Draw	20.8%
Away win	18.4%
Over 2.5	60.4%
BTTS yes	56.9%

Pregame fair line — favorite Atl. Madrid (60.8%), fair total 3.12, fair spread 1.02

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Atl. Madrid — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec	Model / FBref Prior
Cristian Romero	D	34	0	0.38	0.06	542%	1	0.3	7.3	22.3	3	FBref Prior D_service
Marc Pubill	D	88	0	0.00	0.03	100%	1	0.4	7.2	42.0	5	FBref Prior D_service
Jan Oblak	G	92	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	7.1	54.4	5	FBref Prior G_service
Dávid Hancko	D	95	0	0.00	0.01	100%	1	0.6	7.4	58.8	5	FBref Prior D_service
Marcos Llorente	D	59	0	0.00	0.02	100%	1	0.6	7.0	55.2	5	FBref Prior D_service
Kang-in Lee	M	61	0	0.18	0.08	119%	1	2.2	7.4	57.0	5	XGBoost M_service
Koke	M	48	0	0.07	0.01	900%	1	0.2	6.8	57.0	5	FBref Prior M_service
Ademola Lookman	F	80	2	0.48	0.09	464%	2	1.4	7.4	54.8	5	FBref Prior F_service
Giuliano Simeone	M	74	0	0.19	0.06	191%	2	1.2	7.4	52.6	5	FBref Prior M_service
Alejandro Grimaldo	M	93	0	0.29	0.02	1149%	1	0.8	7.1	39.0	5	XGBoost M_service
Alex Baena	M	65	0	0.23	0.10	142%	2	1.4	7.6	59.2	5	FBref Prior M_service
Team totals			2	2.07			15			7.2

Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)

Player	Pos	Exp Min	App Prob	Substitute Modeling Details
Juan Musso	G	4.4m	10.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Robin Le Normand	D	14.3m	23.2%	Market-value substitute prior
José María Giménez	D	16.7m	60.7%	Market-value substitute prior
Pablo Barrios	M	24.4m	46.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Morten Hjulmand	M	17.7m	46.6%	Market-value substitute prior
Julián Alvarez	F	25.9m	75.6%	Market-value substitute prior

Osasuna — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec	Model / FBref Prior
Ante Budimir	F	72	1	0.47	0.68	32%	2	2.5	7.3	51.2	6	FBref Prior F_service
Raúl Moro	M	24	0	0.14	-	n/a	2	0.0	6.8	22.8	6	FBref Prior M_service
Jonathan Dubasin	M	35	0	0.09	0.07	ok	2	0.3	6.7	36.7	7	FBref Prior M_service
Romain Del Castillo	M	90	0	0.14	-	n/a	1	0.0	6.9	-	2	Prior M_service
Lucas Torró	M	39	0	0.06	0.01	412%	2	0.2	6.7	40.0	5	FBref Prior M_service
Jon Moncayola	M	79	0	0.05	0.01	271%	1	0.3	6.8	44.7	6	FBref Prior M_service
Abel Bretones	D	88	0	0.00	0.01	100%	1	0.3	6.3	42.2	6	FBref Prior D_service
Alejandro Catena	D	88	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.7	45.7	6	XGBoost D_service
Enzo Boyomo	D	57	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.8	22.2	6	FBref Prior D_service
Asier Osambela	D	50	0	0.00	0.00	100%	0	0.2	6.4	26.8	5	FBref Prior D_service
Sergio Herrera	G	88	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.7	44.8	6	FBref Prior G_service
Team totals			1	1.05			12			6.7

Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)

Player	Pos	Exp Min	App Prob	Substitute Modeling Details
Aitor Fernández	G	4.4m	10.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Jorge Herrando	D	13.6m	21.7%	Market-value substitute prior
Valentin Rosier	D	13.6m	29.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Aimar Oroz	M	14.9m	43.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Iker Muñoz	M	34.6m	43.5%	Market-value substitute prior
Raúl García de Haro	F	25.3m	55.9%	Market-value substitute prior

Antagonist / tactical summary

Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Giuliano Simeone vs Jon Moncayola). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.70, Away: 0.51. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 52.9% / 47.1%, dominance ratio 0.59, key duel: Giuliano Simeone vs Jon Moncayola

Ademola Lookman xG 0.25Koke xG 0.04Alejandro Grimaldo xG 0.15Raúl Moro xG 0.07Lucas Torró xG 0.04Jonathan Dubasin xG 0.04

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Atl. Madrid vs Osasuna. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Giuliano Simeone vs Jon Moncayola). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.70, Away: 0.51. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Barcelona vs R. Racing Club

LaLiga · 20260916 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1

Predicted 3-0Winner: BarcelonaConfidence 0.78λ home/away 3.16 / 0.68Most-likely P 11.3%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

XGBoost Reasoning & FBref Dataset Tracing

Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Barcelona vs R. Racing Club. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 2.704, Away 0.717). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 3.163, Away 0.677 (most likely score 3-0).

Home Starters 11/11 XGBoost (11 FBref) Away Starters 11/11 XGBoost (9 FBref) Bench Modeled H: 7 / A: 7 Duel λ (H/A) 2.70 / 0.72 Final λ (H/A) 3.16 / 0.68

Modeling Pipeline Stages (5 layers)

1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling
2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)
3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups
4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)
5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction

Standing & form context

Metric	Barcelona	R. Racing Club
League position	1.00	13.00
Points per game	3.00	1.00
Attack index	3.54	1.46
Defense (concede) index	1.67	0.42
Form multiplier	1.06	0.94
Standing λ multiplier	1.65	0.81

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Barcelona λ	R. Racing Club λ
Pre-mismatch	2.704	0.717
Pre-calibration (Micro-duels)	2.704	0.717
Final λ	3.163	0.677

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
3-0	11.3%
2-0	10.8%
4-0	9.0%
3-1	7.7%
2-1	7.3%

Home win	85.2%
Draw	9.9%
Away win	4.9%
Over 2.5	73.7%
BTTS yes	47.1%

Pregame fair line — favorite Barcelona (85.2%), fair total 3.84, fair spread 2.49

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Barcelona — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec	Model / FBref Prior
Raphinha	M	88	1	0.57	1.08	47%	2	2.6	7.7	68.6	5	FBref Prior M_service
Karim Adeyemi	F	31	1	0.50	0.35	44%	2	0.8	7.4	68.8	4	FBref Prior F_service
Dani Olmo	M	36	0	0.23	0.10	124%	2	1.5	7.7	72.0	4	FBref Prior M_service
Lamine Yamal	M	94	1	0.88	0.64	38%	2	5.8	7.8	83.0	4	FBref Prior M_service
Marc Bernal	M	62	0	0.13	0.13	ok	1	0.8	7.4	70.8	4	FBref Prior M_service
Pedri	M	81	0	0.42	0.09	353%	1	1.0	8.0	74.0	4	FBref Prior M_service
João Cancelo	D	11	0	0.00	0.01	100%	0	0.2	6.7	49.8	4	FBref Prior D_service
Eric García	D	72	0	0.00	0.02	100%	1	0.5	7.3	55.2	4	FBref Prior D_service
Jules Koundé	D	47	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	7.4	68.0	4	FBref Prior D_service
Joan García	G	95	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	7.7	72.5	4	FBref Prior G_service
Andreas Christensen	D	69	0	0.00	0.05	100%	0	0.2	6.7	52.8	4	FBref Prior D_service
Team totals			3	3.16			11			7.4

Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)

Player	Pos	Exp Min	App Prob	Substitute Modeling Details
Dominik Livaković	G	4.5m	11.1%	Market-value substitute prior
Pau Cubarsí	D	15.4m	38.0%	Market-value substitute prior
Alejandro Balde	D	15.2m	37.1%	Market-value substitute prior
Fermín López	M	23.8m	58.1%	Market-value substitute prior
Rodri	M	23.5m	56.8%	Market-value substitute prior
Anthony Gordon	F	27.1m	63.9%	Market-value substitute prior

R. Racing Club — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec	Model / FBref Prior
Jorge Salinas	D	90	0.00	0.04	100%	0	0.2	6.6	53.2	5	FBref Prior D_service
Jeanuël Belocian	D	36	0.09	0.04	106%	1	0.5	6.8	36.0	2	XGBoost D_service
Pablo Ramón	D	66	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.6	42.4	5	FBref Prior D_service
Alvaro Mantilla	D	88	0.00	0.03	100%	0	0.4	6.5	50.4	5	XGBoost D_service
Julen Agirrezabala	G	91	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	7.1	54.2	5	FBref Prior G_service
Iván Martín	M	74	0.05	0.01	276%	1	0.2	6.8	53.0	4	FBref Prior M_service
Matteo Prati	M	43	0.04	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.8	44.0	3	FBref Prior M_service
Sergio Canales	M	78	0.11	0.17	32%	2	2.4	6.8	54.2	5	FBref Prior M_service
Pablo García	M	35	0.05	0.11	52%	2	1.2	6.8	56.2	5	FBref Prior M_service
Yassir Zabiri	F	52	0.18	0.15	ok	2	1.2	7.0	56.0	5	FBref Prior F_service
Iñigo Vicente	M	84	0.05	0.01	495%	2	0.2	6.8	58.0	5	FBref Prior M_service
Team totals			0.68			10			6.8

Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)

Player	Pos	Exp Min	App Prob	Substitute Modeling Details
Simon Eriksson	G	4.4m	10.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Facundo González	D	13.6m	29.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Pedro Felipe	D	13.6m	29.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Gustavo Puerta	M	22.7m	32.2%	Market-value substitute prior
Andrés Martín	M	22.2m	51.0%	Market-value substitute prior
Giorgi Guliashvili	F	25.3m	56.0%	Market-value substitute prior

Antagonist / tactical summary

Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs Pablo García). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.81, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 53.8% / 46.2%, dominance ratio 0.63, key duel: Lamine Yamal vs Pablo García

Raphinha xG 0.22Lamine Yamal xG 0.35Dani Olmo xG 0.06Sergio Canales xG 0.11Pablo García xG 0.04Iñigo Vicente xG 0.03

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Barcelona vs R. Racing Club. Most likely scoreline: 3-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs Pablo García). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.81, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Deportivo vs Sevilla

LaLiga · 20260916 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-4-2

Predicted 1-0Winner: DeportivoConfidence 0.65λ home/away 1.36 / 1.02Most-likely P 12.5%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

XGBoost Reasoning & FBref Dataset Tracing

Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Deportivo vs Sevilla. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-4-2 (duel lambdas: Home 1.363, Away 0.889). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.363, Away 1.020 (most likely score 1-0).

Home Starters 11/11 XGBoost (9 FBref) Away Starters 11/11 XGBoost (8 FBref) Bench Modeled H: 7 / A: 7 Duel λ (H/A) 1.36 / 0.89 Final λ (H/A) 1.36 / 1.02

Modeling Pipeline Stages (5 layers)

1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling
2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)
3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups
4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)
5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction

Standing & form context

Metric	Deportivo	Sevilla
League position	5.00	7.00
Points per game	2.00	1.75
Attack index	1.67	1.46
Defense (concede) index	1.25	1.04
Form multiplier	1.01	0.98
Standing λ multiplier	1.36	1.18

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Deportivo λ	Sevilla λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.363	0.889
Pre-calibration (Micro-duels)	1.363	0.889
Final λ	1.363	1.020

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-0	12.5%
1-1	12.9%
0-0	9.3%
0-1	9.3%
2-1	8.7%

Home win	44.6%
Draw	27.5%
Away win	28.0%
Over 2.5	42.6%
BTTS yes	47.7%

Pregame fair line — favorite Deportivo (44.6%), fair total 2.38, fair spread 0.34

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Deportivo — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec	Model / FBref Prior
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	F	87	1	0.55	0.52	ok	2	2.6	7.2	63.6	5	FBref Prior F_service
Yeremay Hernández	F	24	0	0.22	0.02	988%	1	0.2	7.0	50.0	4	FBref Prior F_service
Mario Soriano	M	73	0	0.06	0.02	268%	2	0.6	6.8	54.8	5	FBref Prior M_service
Adama Traoré	F	24	0	0.25	-	n/a		0.0	6.8	30.5	2	XGBoost F_service
Marc Casadó	M	25	0	0.09	-	n/a	1	0.0	6.8	34.0	2	XGBoost M_service
Lorenzo Amatucci	M	90	0	0.06	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.8	56.4	5	FBref Prior M_service
Giacomo Quagliata	D	88	0	0.00	0.00	100%	0	0.2	6.5	51.6	5	FBref Prior D_service
José María Giménez	D	34	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.7	40.8	5	FBref Prior D_service
Lucas Noubi	D	88	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.6	53.2	5	FBref Prior D_service
Ximo Navarro	D	87	0	0.00	0.01	100%	1	0.4	6.4	51.8	5	FBref Prior D_service
Leo Román	G	89	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	7.0	58.4	5	FBref Prior G_service
Team totals			1	1.36			7			6.8

Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)

Player	Pos	Exp Min	App Prob	Substitute Modeling Details
Álvaro Ferllo	G	4.4m	10.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Adrià Altimira	D	13.6m	29.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Dani Barcia	D	13.6m	29.9%	Market-value substitute prior
David Mella	M	22.1m	50.2%	Market-value substitute prior
Angeliño	M	22.0m	50.1%	Market-value substitute prior
Jonathan Asp Jensen	F	25.3m	56.1%	Market-value substitute prior

Sevilla — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec	Model / FBref Prior
Robbie Ure	F	69	0.22	0.07	213%	2	0.8	6.5	50.6	5	FBref Prior F_service
Jon Guridi	M	62	0.05	0.18	70%	2	0.6	6.6	51.0	5	FBref Prior M_service
Chidera Ejuke	F	37	0.24	0.09	185%	2	0.5	6.7	70.5	4	FBref Prior F_service
Giorgi Kochorashvili	M	44	0.06	0.02	162%	2	0.7	6.7	44.7	3	FBref Prior M_service
Lucien Agoumé	M	92	0.07	0.01	825%	2	0.4	7.1	56.0	5	FBref Prior M_service
Miguel Sierra	M	65	0.24	0.05	410%		1.2	6.8	47.7	6	XGBoost M_service
Gabriel Suazo	D	90	0.00	0.00	100%	0	0.2	6.5	53.8	5	FBref Prior D_service
Kike Salas	D	92	0.00	0.01	100%	1	0.8	6.8	50.0	4	FBref Prior D_service
Andrés Castrin	D	70	0.00	0.00	100%	0	0.2	6.8	40.0	5	XGBoost D_service
Juan Iglesias	D	89	0.00	0.02	100%	1	0.6	6.5	53.6	5	XGBoost D_service
Odysseas Vlachodimos	G	88	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.8	54.8	5	FBref Prior G_service
Team totals			1.02			14			6.7

Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)

Player	Pos	Exp Min	App Prob	Substitute Modeling Details
Fran González	G	4.4m	10.9%	Market-value substitute prior
José Ángel Carmona	D	14.0m	31.6%	Market-value substitute prior
Arouna Sangante	D	13.8m	22.2%	Market-value substitute prior
Youssouf Fofana	M	22.9m	54.2%	Market-value substitute prior
Rubén Vargas	M	21.7m	70.2%	Market-value substitute prior
Lucas Stassin	F	25.9m	58.6%	Market-value substitute prior

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Marc Casadó vs Lucien Agoumé will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.37, Away: 0.30. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 50.6% / 49.4%, dominance ratio 0.52, key duel: Marc Casadó vs Lucien Agoumé

Mario Soriano xG 0.03Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang xG 0.29Marc Casadó xG 0.05Robbie Ure xG 0.16Jon Guridi xG 0.04Giorgi Kochorashvili xG 0.05

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Deportivo vs Sevilla. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 3 home and 4 away individual player duels.

4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Midfield is evenly contested — Marc Casadó vs Lucien Agoumé will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.37, Away: 0.30. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Generated 2026-09-16 13:36:15 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting