Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data

Slate 20260917 · 2 match(es)

How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.

All matches overview

Match	Score	Winner	H / D / A	O2.5	BTTS	Conf	λ H/A	Actual	Result
Real Betis vs Getafe LaLiga	1-0	Real Betis	35.8% / 30.4% / 33.8%	34.4%	41.9%	0.55	1.06 / 1.02	-	pending
Málaga vs Villarreal LaLiga	0-1	Villarreal	29.8% / 28.5% / 41.8%	39.9%	46.0%	0.57	1.02 / 1.26	-	pending

Match detail

Real Betis vs Getafe

LaLiga · 20260917 · 3-5-2 vs 3-4-2-1

Predicted 1-0Winner: Real BetisConfidence 0.55λ home/away 1.06 / 1.02Most-likely P 13.1%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

XGBoost Reasoning & FBref Dataset Tracing

Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Real Betis vs Getafe. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-5-2 vs 3-4-2-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.058, Away 0.794). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.058, Away 1.020 (most likely score 1-0).

Home Starters 10/11 XGBoost (8 FBref) Away Starters 10/11 XGBoost (10 FBref) Bench Modeled H: 7 / A: 7 Duel λ (H/A) 1.06 / 0.79 Final λ (H/A) 1.06 / 1.02

FBref Team Priors: Real Betis (Gls/90: 1.3333333333333333, GA/90: 1.33 → E[λ]: 0.326) vs Getafe (Gls/90: 0.3333333333333333, GA/90: 0.33 → E[λ]: 0.328) | Blend Weight: 0.228

Modeling Pipeline Stages (5 layers)

1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling
2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)
3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups
4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)
5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction

Standing & form context

Metric	Real Betis	Getafe
League position	4.00	15.00
Points per game	2.25	1.00
Attack index	1.04	0.42
Defense (concede) index	1.04	1.04
Form multiplier	1.05	0.95
Standing λ multiplier	1.04	0.72

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Real Betis λ	Getafe λ
FBref Squad Prior E[λ] (weight 0.228)	0.326	0.328
Pre-competitive-floor	1.058	0.794
Pre-calibration (Micro-duels)	1.058	0.794
Final λ	1.058	1.020

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-0	13.1%
1-1	13.6%
0-0	12.7%
0-1	12.6%
2-1	7.1%

Home win	35.8%
Draw	30.4%
Away win	33.8%
Over 2.5	34.4%
BTTS yes	41.9%

Pregame fair line — favorite Real Betis (35.8%), fair total 2.08, fair spread 0.04

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Real Betis — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec	Model / FBref Prior
Álvaro Valles	G	89	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	7.3	66.4	5	FBref Prior G_service
Natan	D	95	0	0.00	0.00	100%	0	0.2	7.1	43.6	5	FBref Prior D_service
Valentín Gómez	D	91	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.7	14.6	5	FBref Prior D_service
Fran García	D	76	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.7	55.0	5	FBref Prior D_service
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli	M	17	0	0.10	-	n/a	2	0.0	7.5	33.5	2	XGBoost M_service
Antony	M	94	0	0.20	0.18	ok	3	3.8	7.5	57.6	5	FBref Prior M_service
Nelson Deossa	M	36	0	0.07	0.04	70%	1	1.6	6.9	54.6	5	FBref Prior M_service
Pablo Fornals	M	73	0	0.11	0.05	113%	1	1.2	7.0	54.6	5	FBref Prior M_service
Giovani Lo Celso	M	90	0	0.13	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	1	Prior M_service
Troy Parrott	F	34	0	0.20	0.31	36%	2	1.0	7.1	49.5	4	FBref Prior F_service
Cucho Hernández	F	65	1	0.18	0.03	482%	2	0.6	6.9	52.2	5	XGBoost F_service
Team totals			1	1.06			13			7.1

Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)

Player	Pos	Exp Min	App Prob	Substitute Modeling Details
Diego Conde	G	4.4m	10.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Angel Ortiz	D	13.6m	21.8%	Market-value substitute prior
Aitor Ruibal	D	13.6m	30.1%	Market-value substitute prior
Dani Ceballos	M	22.2m	50.8%	Market-value substitute prior
Álvaro Fidalgo	M	22.1m	50.6%	Market-value substitute prior
Pablo García	F	21.4m	72.4%	Market-value substitute prior

Getafe — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec	Model / FBref Prior
David Soria	G	88	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	7.0	56.2	4	FBref Prior G_service
Andrés García	D	77	0.00	0.03	100%	1	0.8	6.5	53.0	4	FBref Prior D_service
Abdel Abqar	D	1	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	4.9	-	2	FBref Prior D_service
Zaid Romero	D	81	0.00	0.01	100%	0	0.2	6.5	49.5	4	FBref Prior D_service
Mario Martín	M	91	0.08	0.03	133%	2	1.0	6.8	33.0	2	FBref Prior M_service
Orel Mangala	M	89	0.03	0.03	ok	2	0.5	6.9	49.5	4	FBref Prior M_service
Ramón Terrats	M	88	0.15	0.14	ok	3	2.5	6.8	52.2	4	FBref Prior M_service
Francho Serrano	M	81	0.04	-	n/a	1	0.0	6.7	32.8	4	FBref Prior M_service
Christantus Uche	F	90	0.16	-	n/a	3	-	7.0	-	1	Prior F_service
Martín Satriano	F	83	0.27	0.15	74%	2	2.0	6.9	51.5	4	FBref Prior F_service
Enes Ünal	F	90	0.21	0.27	ok	2	1.0	6.7	50.5	4	FBref Prior F_service
Team totals			1.02			17			6.6

Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)

Player	Pos	Exp Min	App Prob	Substitute Modeling Details
Jiří Letáček	G	4.4m	10.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Sebastián Boselli	D	10.5m	60.2%	Market-value substitute prior
Djené	D	13.6m	21.7%	Market-value substitute prior
Nemanja Gudelj	M	18.1m	69.2%	Market-value substitute prior
Oscar Lopez	M	22.0m	49.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Borja Mayoral	F	13.1m	72.2%	Market-value substitute prior

Antagonist / tactical summary

Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Abdessamad Ezzalzouli vs Mario Martín). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 1.08. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.

Midfield — possession 52.2% / 47.8%, dominance ratio 0.57, key duel: Abdessamad Ezzalzouli vs Mario Martín

Nelson Deossa xG 0.06Abdessamad Ezzalzouli xG 0.08Antony xG 0.16Ramón Terrats xG 0.16Mario Martín xG 0.10Orel Mangala xG 0.04

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Real Betis vs Getafe. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 7 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Abdessamad Ezzalzouli vs Mario Martín). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 1.08. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.

Málaga vs Villarreal

LaLiga · 20260917 · 3-5-2 vs 5-4-1

Predicted 0-1Winner: VillarrealConfidence 0.57λ home/away 1.02 / 1.26Most-likely P 12.8%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

XGBoost Reasoning & FBref Dataset Tracing

Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Málaga vs Villarreal. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-5-2 vs 5-4-1 (duel lambdas: Home 0.628, Away 1.141). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.020, Away 1.263 (most likely score 0-1).

Home Starters 8/11 XGBoost (0 FBref) Away Starters 10/11 XGBoost (10 FBref) Bench Modeled H: 7 / A: 7 Duel λ (H/A) 0.63 / 1.14 Final λ (H/A) 1.02 / 1.26

FBref Team Priors: Málaga CF (Gls/90: 0.3333333333333333, GA/90: 0.33 → E[λ]: 0.328) vs Villarreal (Gls/90: 1.3333333333333333, GA/90: 1.33 → E[λ]: 0.326) | Blend Weight: 0.228

Modeling Pipeline Stages (5 layers)

1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling
2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)
3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups
4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)
5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction

Standing & form context

Metric	Málaga	Villarreal
League position	18.00	17.00
Points per game	0.50	0.50
Attack index	0.21	1.25
Defense (concede) index	1.67	1.46
Form multiplier	1.00	1.00
Standing λ multiplier	0.67	1.28

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Málaga λ	Villarreal λ
FBref Squad Prior E[λ] (weight 0.228)	0.328	0.326
Pre-mismatch	0.650	1.141
Pre-competitive-floor	0.650	1.263
Pre-calibration (Micro-duels)	0.628	1.141
Final λ	1.020	1.263

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
0-1	12.8%
1-1	13.2%
0-0	10.3%
1-0	10.3%
1-2	8.3%

Home win	29.8%
Draw	28.5%
Away win	41.8%
Over 2.5	39.9%
BTTS yes	46.0%

Pregame fair line — favorite Villarreal (41.8%), fair total 2.28, fair spread -0.24

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Málaga — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec	Model / FBref Prior
Alfonso Herrero	G	88	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	7.1	59.8	5	XGBoost G_service
Adam Aznou	D	90	0.02	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.9	-	2	Prior D_service
Fernando Calero	D	90	0.02	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	1	Prior D_service
Jose Salinas	D	45	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.5	39.2	5	XGBoost D_service
Jens-Lys Cajuste	M	9	0.05	-	n/a	1	0.0	6.4	33.5	2	XGBoost M_service
David Larrubia	M	75	0.20	0.09	128%		1.5	6.8	44.8	6	XGBoost M_service
Pablo Martínez	M	51	0.04	0.00	1111%	1	0.2	6.8	33.0	4	XGBoost M_service
Izan Merino	M	72	0.04	0.01	344%	1	0.2	6.7	53.6	5	XGBoost M_service
Juan Cruz	M	41	0.10	0.01	1044%	1	0.4	6.7	51.6	5	XGBoost M_service
Chupete	F	91	0.25	0.58	58%	2	2.4	6.8	51.2	5	XGBoost F_service
Adrián Niño	F	90	0.18	-	n/a	2	-	6.9	-	1	Prior F_service
Team totals			1.02			8			6.8

Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)

Player	Pos	Exp Min	App Prob	Substitute Modeling Details
Carlos Lopez	G	4.4m	10.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Diego Murillo	D	13.6m	29.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Juan Berrocal	D	13.6m	29.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Dani Lorenzo	M	22.0m	49.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Joaquín Muñoz	M	22.0m	49.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Julen Lobete	F	25.3m	55.9%	Market-value substitute prior

Villarreal — projected line vs season baseline (5-4-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec	Model / FBref Prior
Luiz Júnior	G	91	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	6.6	40.2	6	XGBoost G_service
Renato Veiga	D	95	0	0.00	0.02	100%	1	0.3	7.3	45.3	6	FBref Prior D_service
Carlos Romero	D	95	0	0.00	0.01	100%	1	0.4	7.1	40.4	5	FBref Prior D_service
Santiago Mouriño	D	83	0	0.00	0.03	100%	1	0.3	6.9	33.5	6	FBref Prior D_service
Logan Costa	D	85	0	0.13	0.01	1246%	1	0.2	6.9	11.0	6	FBref Prior D_service
Pau Navarro	D	90	0	0.04	-	n/a	0	0.0	7.0	-	6	FBref Prior D_service
Alberto Moleiro	M	56	0	0.16	0.04	338%	2	0.3	7.6	45.8	6	FBref Prior M_service
Pape Gueye	M	90	0	0.14	0.02	764%	1	0.7	7.5	47.8	6	FBref Prior M_service
Tajon Buchanan	M	39	0	0.21	0.09	128%	3	0.7	7.0	44.3	6	FBref Prior M_service
Ilias Akhomach	M	14	0	0.13	0.00	6169%	0	0.2	6.9	42.0	6	FBref Prior M_service
Georges Mikautadze	F	75	1	0.39	0.40	ok	2	2.0	7.4	44.2	6	FBref Prior F_service
Team totals			1	1.26			12			7.1

Bench Candidates (7 modeled substitutes with empirical playing time)

Player	Pos	Exp Min	App Prob	Substitute Modeling Details
Péter Gulácsi	G	4.4m	10.9%	Market-value substitute prior
Alexander Freeman	D	13.9m	31.2%	Market-value substitute prior
Juan Foyth	D	13.8m	22.2%	Market-value substitute prior
Nathan-Dylan Saliba	M	22.3m	51.2%	Market-value substitute prior
Santi Comesaña	M	22.2m	31.2%	Market-value substitute prior
Tani Oluwaseyi	F	15.9m	72.3%	Market-value substitute prior

Antagonist / tactical summary

Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Jens-Lys Cajuste vs Alberto Moleiro). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.52, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block.

Midfield — possession 47.5% / 52.5%, dominance ratio 0.41, key duel: Jens-Lys Cajuste vs Alberto Moleiro

Izan Merino xG 0.03Jens-Lys Cajuste xG 0.04Pablo Martínez xG 0.03Georges Mikautadze xG 0.19Carlos Romero xG 0.11Pau Navarro xG 0.02

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Málaga vs Villarreal. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 4 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Jens-Lys Cajuste vs Alberto Moleiro). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.52, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block.

Generated 2026-09-17 13:35:51 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting