{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Canada", "away_team": "BiH", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260612", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1366, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1366 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1363 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1363 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1313 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0702 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1363, "0-1": 0.1313, "0-2": 0.0652, "0-3": 0.0214, "0-4": 0.0052, "0-5": 0.001, "1-0": 0.1363, "1-1": 0.1366, "1-2": 0.0665, "1-3": 0.0218, "1-4": 0.0054, "1-5": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.0702, "2-1": 0.069, "2-2": 0.0339, "2-3": 0.0111, "2-4": 0.0027, "2-5": 0.0005, "3-0": 0.0239, "3-1": 0.0235, "3-2": 0.0115, "3-3": 0.0038, "3-4": 0.0009, "4-0": 0.0061, "4-1": 0.006, "4-2": 0.0029, "4-3": 0.001, "5-0": 0.0012, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3543, "draw": 0.3108, "away_win": 0.3349 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3241, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6759, "btts_yes": 0.4015, "btts_no": 0.5985, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3742, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 77.18, "MCR": 80.48, "ATR": 86.18, "GK": 75.61 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 79.21, "MCR": 80.48, "ATR": 78.64, "GK": 83.78 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Canada vs BiH. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 3 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Jonathan David, Ermedin Demirović", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Ismael Koné vs Amar Memić). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.48, Away: 0.31. Home danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.69, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 0.983 }, "teams": { "Canada": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Stephen Eustaquio": { "player_id": 886223, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 178, "market_value": 7600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0916, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 83.6987, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 43, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 66, "possession_lost": 10.311, "dispossessed": 1.4972, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0699, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Amar Memić", "opponent_faced": "Amar Memić", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "fifa_overall": 77.0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1012 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 11886259, "match_date": "2024-07-10", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Argentina", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" }, { "match_id": 11886368, "match_date": "2024-06-30", "home_team": "Canada", "away_team": "Chile", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Chile", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3004, "expected_assists": 0.0667, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 58, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", 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UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 15852, "combined_rank_score": 1929.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 774.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 3084.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.5906, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Amir Hadžiahmetović", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "José Cifuentes", "ranking": 15847 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Robertone", "ranking": 15848 }, { "player_name": "Dani De Wit", "ranking": 15849 }, { "player_name": "Nicolas Höfler", "ranking": 15850 }, { "player_name": "Fisnik Asllani", "ranking": 15851 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Maximiliano Meza", "ranking": 15853 }, { "player_name": "Robert Ljubičić", "ranking": 15854 }, { "player_name": "Shea Charles", "ranking": 15855 }, { "player_name": "Pedraza", "ranking": 15856 }, { "player_name": "Hassane Kamara", "ranking": 15857 } ] } } }, "Haris Tabaković": { "player_id": 259803, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 196, "market_value": 3600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1055, "goal_rate": 0.2816, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 79.9244, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.9369, "dispossessed": 0.9835, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.2297, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.32, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14065559, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "Borussia M'gladbach", "away_team": "TSG Hoffenheim", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Borussia M'gladbach", "opponent": "TSG Hoffenheim", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3871, "expected_assists": 0.0057, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065243, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Borussia M'gladbach", "away_team": "Borussia Dortmund", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Borussia M'gladbach", "opponent": "Borussia Dortmund", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.1286, "expected_assists": 0.004, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233693, "match_date": "2025-11-18", "home_team": "Austria", "away_team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "opponent": "Austria", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 15733, "combined_rank_score": 1834.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 123.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.35, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 3546.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9244, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Haris Tabaković", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lautaro Rivero", "ranking": 15728 }, { "player_name": "Nnamdi Collins", "ranking": 15729 }, { "player_name": "Matías Mansilla", "ranking": 15730 }, { "player_name": "Brandon Vázquez", "ranking": 15731 }, { "player_name": "Marc Kempf", "ranking": 15732 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Arnaud Nordin", "ranking": 15734 }, { "player_name": "Domingos Duarte", "ranking": 15735 }, { "player_name": "Ricky van Wolfswinkel", "ranking": 15736 }, { "player_name": "Nathan Zeze", "ranking": 15737 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Chirivella", "ranking": 15738 } ] } } }, "Edin Džeko": { "player_id": 14990, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 193, "market_value": 1400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 87.6958, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 5.2393, "dispossessed": 0.9812, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 13233693, "match_date": "2025-11-18", "home_team": "Austria", "away_team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "opponent": "Austria", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2376, "combined_rank_score": 329.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 88.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.4778, "sofascore_appearances": 9.0, "fifa_rank": 571.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6958, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Edin Džeko", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Hamed Hemdan", "ranking": 2371 }, { "player_name": "Hörður Magnússon", "ranking": 2372 }, { "player_name": "Kim Seung-gyu", "ranking": 2373 }, { "player_name": "Ivan Yordanov", "ranking": 2374 }, { "player_name": "Al-Hareth Hatam", "ranking": 2375 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Arda Güler", "ranking": 2377 }, { "player_name": "Goto Masaaki", "ranking": 2378 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Schoofs", "ranking": 2379 }, { "player_name": "Domagoj Bukvić", "ranking": 2380 }, { "player_name": "Alfred Gøthler", "ranking": 2381 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 0.98, "expected_assists": 0.33, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 343, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 8, "avg_rating": 79.82, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Cyle Larin", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Nikola Katić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.559, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0686, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tarik Muharemović", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Nikola Katić", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cyle Larin (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Tarik Muharemović and Nikola Katić in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Tajon Buchanan", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 13000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.557, "defenders": [ "Amar Dedić" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.46, "xg_contribution": 0.1628, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Amar Dedić", "role": "RB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.54 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tajon Buchanan (LM) is evenly matched against Amar Dedić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.163 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Liam Millar", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 2900000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.436, "defenders": [ "Sead Kolašinac" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.452, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.445, "xg_contribution": 0.137, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sead Kolašinac", "role": "LB", "market_value": 4200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.555 } ], "duel_analysis": "Liam Millar (RM) is evenly matched against Sead Kolašinac in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.137 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Stephen Eustaquio", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 7600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.494, "defenders": [ "Amar Memić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.455, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "xg_contribution": 0.115, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Amar Memić", "role": "CM", "market_value": 4400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.554 } ], "duel_analysis": "Stephen Eustaquio (CM) is evenly matched against Amar Memić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.115 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ermedin Demirović", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 20000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.631, "defenders": [ "Derek Cornelius", "Luc De Fougerolles" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.421, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.289, "xg_contribution": 0.2482, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Derek Cornelius", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.711 }, { "player": "Luc De Fougerolles", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.711 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ermedin Demirović (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Derek Cornelius and Luc De Fougerolles in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€20M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.248 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ivan Bašić", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 1200000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.415, "defenders": [ "Alistair Johnston" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.494, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.417, "xg_contribution": 0.0487, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alistair Johnston", "role": "RB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.583 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ivan Bašić (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Alistair Johnston in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.049 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Amar Memić", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 4400000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.455, "defenders": [ "Stephen Eustaquio" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.494, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "xg_contribution": 0.0085, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Stephen Eustaquio", "role": "CM", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.606 } ], "duel_analysis": "Amar Memić (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Stephen Eustaquio in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.009 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.568, "away_midfield_power": 0.442, "home_creative_power": 0.476, "away_creative_power": 0.421, "home_defensive_power": 0.499, "away_defensive_power": 0.37, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.563, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Stephen Eustaquio", "Tajon Buchanan", "Ismael Koné", "Liam Millar" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Amar Memić", "Ivan Bašić", "Benjamin Tahirović" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.4, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "home_throughball_threat": 2.0, "away_throughball_threat": 1.9, "key_personal_duel": "Ismael Koné vs Amar Memić", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.023, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.98 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 0.983, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Cyle Larin": { "opponents": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Nikola Katić" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Tajon Buchanan": { "opponents": [ "Amar Dedić", "Ivan Bašić" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Liam Millar": { "opponents": [ "Sead Kolašinac", "Amar Memić" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Stephen Eustaquio": { "opponents": [ "Amar Memić" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Derek Cornelius": { "opponents": [ "Ermedin Demirović" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luc De Fougerolles": { "opponents": [ "Ermedin Demirović" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alistair Johnston": { "opponents": [ "Ivan Bašić" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ismael Koné": { "opponents": [ "Benjamin Tahirović" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Maxime Crépeau": { "opponents": [ "Esmir Bajraktarević", "Samed Baždar" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Richie Laryea": { "opponents": [ "Esmir Bajraktarević" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jonathan David": { "opponents": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Amar Dedić" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Tarik Muharemović": { "opponents": [ "Cyle Larin" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nikola Katić": { "opponents": [ "Cyle Larin" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Amar Dedić": { "opponents": [ "Tajon Buchanan" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sead Kolašinac": { "opponents": [ "Liam Millar" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Amar Memić": { "opponents": [ "Stephen Eustaquio", "Liam Millar" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ermedin Demirović": { "opponents": [ "Derek Cornelius", "Luc De Fougerolles" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ivan Bašić": { "opponents": [ "Alistair Johnston", "Tajon Buchanan" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Benjamin Tahirović": { "opponents": [ "Ismael Koné" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Nikola Vasilj": { "opponents": [ "Jonathan David", "Cyle Larin" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Esmir Bajraktarević": { "opponents": [ "Richie Laryea", "Alistair Johnston" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Samed Baždar": { "opponents": [ "Derek Cornelius", "Luc De Fougerolles" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Ismael Koné vs Amar Memić). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.48, Away: 0.31. Home danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0051, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0147, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.062, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.148, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9668, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0065, "home_midfield_factor": 1.023, "away_midfield_factor": 0.98, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.5075, "away_avg_quality": 0.5031, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0043, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.0549, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.0909, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.6149, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.032, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0718, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0882, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.909, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.983, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.9088, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.9832, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 0.983 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-12T13:39:44Z" }