{ "match_info": { "home_team": "USA", "away_team": "Paraguay", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260612", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1353, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1353 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1302 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1164 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1161 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0766 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1164, "0-1": 0.1161, "0-2": 0.0599, "0-3": 0.0204, "0-4": 0.0052, "0-5": 0.0011, "1-0": 0.1302, "1-1": 0.1353, "1-2": 0.0684, "1-3": 0.0232, "1-4": 0.0059, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0751, "2-1": 0.0766, "2-2": 0.039, "2-3": 0.0133, "2-4": 0.0034, "2-5": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.0286, "3-1": 0.0291, "3-2": 0.0149, "3-3": 0.0051, "3-4": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.0082, "4-1": 0.0083, "4-2": 0.0042, "4-3": 0.0014, "5-0": 0.0019, "5-1": 0.0019, "5-2": 0.001 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3828, "draw": 0.2962, "away_win": 0.321 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3671, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6329, "btts_yes": 0.4366, "btts_no": 0.5634, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3192 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 84.77, "MCR": 86.73, "ATR": 88.07, "GK": 88.67 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 88.05, "MCR": 81.98, "ATR": 82.03, "GK": 68.88 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for USA vs Paraguay. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 3 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Antonee Robinson, Alex Arce", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Weston McKennie vs Diego Gómez will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.37, Away: 0.71. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.142, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "teams": { "USA": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Sergiño Dest": { "player_id": 906021, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 173, "market_value": 17200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 86.5975, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 35, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 8.7618, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"eredivisie", "league_country": "Netherlands", "season_id": "77012", "season_name": "VriendenLoterij Eredivisie 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14028548, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Go Ahead Eagles", "away_team": "PSV Eindhoven", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "PSV Eindhoven", "opponent": "Go Ahead Eagles", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1768, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "VriendenLoterij Eredivisie", "league_id": "37", "league_slug": "eredivisie", "league_country": "Netherlands", "season_id": "77012", "season_name": "VriendenLoterij Eredivisie 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 8067, "combined_rank_score": 437.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 767.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.5975, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sergiño Dest", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lan Štravs", "ranking": 8062 }, { "player_name": "Mahmoud El-Badry", "ranking": 8063 }, { "player_name": "Franco Torgnascioli", "ranking": 8064 }, { "player_name": "Mohamed Hassan", "ranking": 8065 }, { "player_name": "Segerso Geci", "ranking": 8066 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Filip Samurović", "ranking": 8068 }, { "player_name": "Jefferson Alphonse", "ranking": 8069 }, { "player_name": "Barrie McKay", "ranking": 8070 }, { "player_name": "Alexandros Tereziou", "ranking": 8071 }, { "player_name": "Ali Hussein", "ranking": 8072 } ] } } }, "Chris Richards": { "player_id": 931844, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 188, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "rating": 83.7589, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 37, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 9.2525, "dispossessed": 1.0479, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3039, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.6706, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 28, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, 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25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1829, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023937, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { 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América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" }, { "match_id": 11886372, "match_date": "2024-06-27", "home_team": "Panama", "away_team": "USA", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "USA", "opponent": "Panama", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2641, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" }, { "match_id": 11886363, "match_date": "2024-06-23", "home_team": "USA", "away_team": 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"season_name": "Brasileiro Serie A 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15235569, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Vasco da Gama", "away_team": "Red Bull Bragantino", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Red Bull Bragantino", "opponent": "Vasco da Gama", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.4424, "expected_assists": 0.0115, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Brasileirão Betano", "league_id": "325", "league_slug": "brasileirao-serie-a", "league_country": "Brazil", "season_id": "87678", "season_name": "Brasileiro Serie A 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15235587, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Red Bull Bragantino", "away_team": "Vitória", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Red Bull Bragantino", "opponent": "Vitória", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.234, "expected_assists": 0.1146, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Brasileirão Betano", "league_id": "325", "league_slug": "brasileirao-serie-a", "league_country": "Brazil", "season_id": "87678", "season_name": "Brasileiro Serie A 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 375, "combined_rank_score": 180.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 165.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8275, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Isidro Pitta", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Leroy Sané", "ranking": 370 }, { "player_name": "Moise Kean", "ranking": 371 }, { "player_name": "Sebastian Esposito", "ranking": 372 }, { "player_name": "João Cancelo", "ranking": 373 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Barreal", "ranking": 374 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Do-yeon Kim", "ranking": 376 }, { "player_name": "Ognjen Ugrešić", "ranking": 377 }, { "player_name": "Ricardo Mathias", "ranking": 378 }, { "player_name": "Gui Negão", "ranking": 379 }, { "player_name": "Péter Gulácsi", "ranking": 380 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.19, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 7, "total_passes": 287, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 19, "avg_rating": 83.01, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Folarin Balogun", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Omar Alderete", "Diego Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.642, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.304, "xg_contribution": 0.1092, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Omar Alderete", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696 }, { "player": "Diego Gómez", "role": "CM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696 } ], "duel_analysis": "Folarin Balogun (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Omar Alderete and Diego Gómez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. Projected xG contribution: 0.109 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Malik Tillman", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Gustavo Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.441, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.518, "xg_contribution": 0.1135, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gustavo Gómez", "role": "RB", "market_value": 3300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.482 } ], "duel_analysis": "Malik Tillman (LWB) is slightly favored against Gustavo Gómez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €3M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.113 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Weston McKennie", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Diego Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.434, "xg_contribution": 0.146, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Diego Gómez", "role": "CM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.566 } ], "duel_analysis": "Weston McKennie (CM) is evenly matched against Diego Gómez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Damián Bobadilla", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 5300000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.466, "defenders": [ "Chris Richards" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.305, "xg_contribution": 0.1142, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.695 } ], "duel_analysis": "Damián Bobadilla (LM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Chris Richards in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €23M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.114 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Diego Gómez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Weston McKennie" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.406, "xg_contribution": 0.0733, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Weston McKennie", "role": "CM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.594 } ], "duel_analysis": "Diego Gómez (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Weston McKennie in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.073 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Andrés Cubas", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3800000, "attacker_height": 165, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.447, "defenders": [ "Weston McKennie" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.235, "xg_contribution": 0.0759, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Weston McKennie", "role": "CM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.765 } ], "duel_analysis": "Andrés Cubas (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Weston McKennie in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €31M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.076 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Miguel Almirón", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 8700000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.507, "defenders": [ "Chris Richards" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "RM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.295, "xg_contribution": 0.1183, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.705 } ], "duel_analysis": "Miguel Almirón (RM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Chris Richards in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. Projected xG contribution: 0.118 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Alex Arce", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Chris Richards", "Alexander Freeman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.55, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1364, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alexander Freeman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Arce (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Chris Richards and Alexander Freeman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.136 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Antonio Sanabria", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1600000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.42, "defenders": [ "Chris Richards", "Alexander Freeman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.55, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1949, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alexander Freeman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antonio Sanabria (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Chris Richards and Alexander Freeman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.195 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.702, "away_midfield_power": 0.554, "home_creative_power": 0.712, "away_creative_power": 0.413, "home_defensive_power": 0.689, "away_defensive_power": 0.535, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.559, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Tyler Adams", "Weston McKennie", "Malik Tillman" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Diego Gómez", "Andrés Cubas", "Damián Bobadilla", "Miguel Almirón" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "home_throughball_threat": 2.7, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Weston McKennie vs Diego Gómez", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.023, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.97 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.04, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.142, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Folarin Balogun": { "opponents": [ "Omar Alderete", "Diego Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Malik Tillman": { "opponents": [ "Gustavo Gómez", "Damián Bobadilla" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Weston McKennie": { "opponents": [ "Diego Gómez", "Andrés Cubas", "Miguel Almirón" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Chris Richards": { "opponents": [ "Damián Bobadilla", "Miguel Almirón", "Alex Arce", "Antonio Sanabria" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alexander Freeman": { "opponents": [ "Alex Arce", "Antonio Sanabria" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tyler Adams": { "opponents": [ "Andrés Cubas" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Matthew Freese": { "opponents": [ "Alex Arce", "Antonio Sanabria" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Antonee Robinson": { "opponents": [ "Alex Arce" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Christian Pulišić": { "opponents": [ "Juan Cáceres", "Junior Alonso" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Sergiño Dest": { "opponents": [ "Antonio Sanabria" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Tim Ream": { "opponents": [ "Alex Arce" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Omar Alderete": { "opponents": [ "Folarin Balogun" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Diego Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Folarin Balogun", "Weston McKennie" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gustavo Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Malik Tillman" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Damián Bobadilla": { "opponents": [ "Chris Richards", "Malik Tillman" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Andrés Cubas": { "opponents": [ "Weston McKennie", "Tyler Adams" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Miguel Almirón": { "opponents": [ "Chris Richards", "Weston McKennie" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alex Arce": { "opponents": [ "Chris Richards", "Alexander Freeman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Antonio Sanabria": { "opponents": [ "Chris Richards", "Alexander Freeman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Orlando Gill": { "opponents": [ "Christian Pulišić", "Folarin Balogun" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Junior Alonso": { "opponents": [ "Christian Pulišić" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Juan Cáceres": { "opponents": [ "Christian Pulišić" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Weston McKennie vs Diego Gómez will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.37, Away: 0.71. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9975, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0152, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.094, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.057, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9891, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9447, "home_midfield_factor": 1.023, "away_midfield_factor": 0.97, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6457, "away_avg_quality": 0.4867, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1591, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.0671, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.9006, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.0656, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2986, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1642, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0955, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1486, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0927, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.142, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.914, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1416, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.9137, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.142, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-12T13:39:50Z" }