{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Haiti", "away_team": "Scotland", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260613", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1472, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1472 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.126 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1061 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.1032 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0893 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1061, "0-1": 0.1472, "0-2": 0.1032, "0-3": 0.0481, "0-4": 0.0168, "0-5": 0.0047, "0-6": 0.0011, "1-0": 0.0893, "1-1": 0.126, "1-2": 0.0877, "1-3": 0.0409, "1-4": 0.0143, "1-5": 0.004, "1-6": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.0382, "2-1": 0.0533, "2-2": 0.0373, "2-3": 0.0174, "2-4": 0.0061, "2-5": 0.0017, "3-0": 0.0108, "3-1": 0.0151, "3-2": 0.0106, "3-3": 0.0049, "3-4": 0.0017, "4-0": 0.0023, "4-1": 0.0032, "4-2": 0.0022, "4-3": 0.001, "5-1": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2279, "draw": 0.2747, "away_win": 0.4975 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3901, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6099, "btts_yes": 0.4316, "btts_no": 0.5684, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2471, "away_clean_sheet": 0.4274 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.6, "MCR": 6.74, "ATR": 6.74, "GK": 6.67 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.65, "MCR": 7.1, "ATR": 6.6, "GK": 6.67 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Haiti vs Scotland. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Lawrence Shankland", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Jean-Ricner Bellegarde vs Scott McTominay). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.42, Away: 0.53. Home danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel." }, "confidence": 0.73, "home_lambda": 0.85, "away_lambda": 1.398 }, "teams": { "Haiti": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Wilson Isidor": { "player_id": 877980, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 184, "market_value": 18500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.106, "goal_rate": 0.5375, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0838, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.2911, "minutes": 22, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 2.587, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, 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0.757 }, { "player": "Aaron Hickey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.757 } ], "duel_analysis": "Wilson Isidor (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Grant Hanley and Aaron Hickey in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. Projected xG contribution: 0.106 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ruben Providence", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 270000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.403, "defenders": [ "Jack Hendry" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.43, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.388, "xg_contribution": 0.0467, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jack Hendry", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.612 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ruben Providence (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Jack Hendry in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Louicius Don Deedson", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 1300000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.416, "defenders": [ "Andy Robertson" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.493, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.426, "xg_contribution": 0.148, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andy Robertson", "role": "LB", "market_value": 7500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.574 } ], "duel_analysis": "Louicius Don Deedson (RM) is evenly matched against Andy Robertson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.148 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 17600000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.607, "defenders": [ "Lewis Ferguson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.557, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "xg_contribution": 0.1226, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Ferguson", "role": "CM", "market_value": 13000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.602 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Lewis Ferguson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.123 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Che Adams", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4800000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.46, "defenders": [ "Carlens Arcus", "Martin Expérience" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.414, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.205, "xg_contribution": 0.1072, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlens Arcus", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.795 }, { "player": "Martin Expérience", "role": "CB", "market_value": 360000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.795 } ], "duel_analysis": "Che Adams (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Carlens Arcus and Martin Expérience in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Projected xG contribution: 0.107 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "John McGinn", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 14500000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.574, "defenders": [ "Ricardo Adé" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.404, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.476, "xg_contribution": 0.1431, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ricardo Adé", "role": "RB", "market_value": 310000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.524 } ], "duel_analysis": "John McGinn (LM) is evenly matched against Ricardo Adé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.143 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Scott McTominay", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 38000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.77, "defenders": [ "Hannes Delcroix" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.426, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.647, "xg_contribution": 0.1603, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hannes Delcroix", "role": "LB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.353 } ], "duel_analysis": "Scott McTominay (RM) has a clear attacking advantage against Hannes Delcroix in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 65%. The quality gap is significant (€38M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.160 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Lewis Ferguson", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 13000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.557, "defenders": [ "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.607, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.442, "xg_contribution": 0.1235, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde", "role": "CM", "market_value": 17600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.558 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lewis Ferguson (CM) is evenly matched against Jean-Ricner Bellegarde in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.123 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.483, "away_midfield_power": 0.646, "home_creative_power": 0.411, "away_creative_power": 0.604, "home_defensive_power": 0.411, "away_defensive_power": 0.597, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.428, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Ruben Providence", "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde", "Danley Jean Jacques" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "John McGinn", "Scott McTominay", "Lewis Ferguson", "Ben Gannon-Doak" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 47.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 52.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.1, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.4, "key_personal_duel": "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde vs Scott McTominay", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.971, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.029 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.85, "away_lambda": 1.398, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Wilson Isidor": { "opponents": [ "Grant Hanley", "Aaron Hickey" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ruben Providence": { "opponents": [ "Jack Hendry", "John McGinn" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Louicius Don Deedson": { "opponents": [ "Andy Robertson" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Ferguson", "Scott McTominay" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carlens Arcus": { "opponents": [ "Che Adams" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Martin Expérience": { "opponents": [ "Che Adams" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ricardo Adé": { "opponents": [ "John McGinn" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Hannes Delcroix": { "opponents": [ "Scott McTominay" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Danley Jean Jacques": { "opponents": [ "Ben Gannon-Doak" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Johny Placide": { "opponents": [ "Lawrence Shankland", "Che Adams" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Frantzdy Pierrot": { "opponents": [ "Aaron Hickey", "Andy Robertson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Grant Hanley": { "opponents": [ "Wilson Isidor" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aaron Hickey": { "opponents": [ "Wilson Isidor" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jack Hendry": { "opponents": [ "Ruben Providence" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Andy Robertson": { "opponents": [ "Louicius Don Deedson" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lewis Ferguson": { "opponents": [ "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Che Adams": { "opponents": [ "Carlens Arcus", "Martin Expérience" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "John McGinn": { "opponents": [ "Ricardo Adé", "Ruben Providence" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Scott McTominay": { "opponents": [ "Hannes Delcroix", "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ben Gannon-Doak": { "opponents": [ "Danley Jean Jacques" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Angus Gunn": { "opponents": [ "Frantzdy Pierrot", "Louicius Don Deedson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Lawrence Shankland": { "opponents": [ "Hannes Delcroix", "Carlens Arcus" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Jean-Ricner Bellegarde vs Scott McTominay). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.42, Away: 0.53. Home danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0204, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0252, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.107, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.112, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9968, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.014, "home_midfield_factor": 0.971, "away_midfield_factor": 1.029, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4571, "away_avg_quality": 0.5305, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0734, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.7737, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.6922, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.6197, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1133, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2494, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1587, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0802, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0624, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.1133, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0843, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9784, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.784, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.289, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 0.85, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.767, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.398, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.7842, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.2894, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 0.85, "final_away_lambda": 1.398 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-13T19:23:33Z" }