{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Côte d'Ivoire", "away_team": "Ecuador", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260614", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1363, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1363 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1321 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1094 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.103 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0867 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1094, "0-1": 0.103, "0-2": 0.0497, "0-3": 0.0158, "0-4": 0.0038, "0-5": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.1363, "1-1": 0.1321, "1-2": 0.0628, "1-3": 0.02, "1-4": 0.0048, "1-5": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.0867, "2-1": 0.0829, "2-2": 0.0397, "2-3": 0.0127, "2-4": 0.003, "2-5": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0365, "3-1": 0.0349, "3-2": 0.0167, "3-3": 0.0053, "3-4": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.0115, "4-1": 0.011, "4-2": 0.0053, "4-3": 0.0017, "5-0": 0.0029, "5-1": 0.0028, "5-2": 0.0013, "6-0": 0.0006, "6-1": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4332, "draw": 0.2869, "away_win": 0.2799 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3829, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6171, "btts_yes": 0.4428, "btts_no": 0.5572, "home_clean_sheet": 0.384, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2825 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.89, "MCR": 7.13, "ATR": 7.05, "GK": 6.2 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.56, "MCR": 7.03, "ATR": 6.48, "GK": 6.43 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Côte d'Ivoire vs Ecuador. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Oumar Diakité", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Amad Diallo vs Moisés Caicedo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.08, Away: 0.64. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.71, "home_lambda": 1.264, "away_lambda": 0.957 }, "teams": { "Côte d'Ivoire": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Yahia Fofana": { "player_id": 877977, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 194, "market_value": 5200000, "stats": { "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.2024, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 17, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 37, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.9894, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 9.231, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "expected_saves": 1.35, "high_pressure_saves": 0.51, "shots_faced": 2.9, "opponent_faced": "John 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"away_team": "Çaykur Rizespor", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Çaykur Rizespor", "opponent": "Eyüpspor", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -1.0303 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Trendyol Süper Lig", "league_id": "52", "league_slug": "trendyol-super-lig", "league_country": "Turkey", "season_id": "77805", "season_name": "Super Lig 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14109901, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Çaykur Rizespor", "away_team": "Konyaspor", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Çaykur Rizespor", "opponent": "Konyaspor", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.3834 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Trendyol Süper Lig", "league_id": "52", "league_slug": "trendyol-super-lig", "league_country": "Turkey", "season_id": "77805", "season_name": "Super Lig 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 14616, "combined_rank_score": 983.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 1748.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.2024, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yahia Fofana", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Anis Hadj Moussa", "ranking": 14611 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Mac Allister", "ranking": 14612 }, { "player_name": "Jérémie Boga", "ranking": 14613 }, { "player_name": "Lukas Nmecha", "ranking": 14614 }, { "player_name": "Diego Moreira", "ranking": 14615 } ], "lower": 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"height": 190, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.6074, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 41, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 6.7745, "dispossessed": 1.0422, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0834, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.4794, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 77, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "John Yeboah", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "fifa_overall": 80.0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0439 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14109924, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Kasımpaşa", "away_team": "Galatasaray", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Galatasaray", "opponent": "Kasımpaşa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0705, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 107, "accurate_pass": 104, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Trendyol Süper Lig", "league_id": "52", "league_slug": "trendyol-super-lig", "league_country": "Turkey", "season_id": "77805", "season_name": "Super Lig 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14109906, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Samsunspor", "away_team": "Galatasaray", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Galatasaray", "opponent": "Samsunspor", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Trendyol Süper Lig", "league_id": "52", "league_slug": "trendyol-super-lig", "league_country": "Turkey", "season_id": "77805", "season_name": "Super Lig 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631369, "match_date": "2026-03-18", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Galatasaray", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Galatasaray", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631351, "match_date": "2026-03-10", "home_team": "Galatasaray", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Galatasaray", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0893, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA 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"duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "key_pass": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.5, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 401, "combined_rank_score": 119.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 38.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7776, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jeremy Arevalo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gabriel Martínez", "ranking": 396 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Esquivel", "ranking": 397 }, { "player_name": "Caio Alexandre", "ranking": 398 }, { "player_name": "Jovan Milošević", "ranking": 399 }, { "player_name": "Matheus França", "ranking": 400 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gabriel", "ranking": 402 }, { "player_name": "Robin Le Normand", "ranking": 403 }, { "player_name": "Aleksandre Andronikashvili", "ranking": 404 }, { "player_name": "Alexsandro Amorim", "ranking": 405 }, { "player_name": "Unai Simón", "ranking": 406 } ] } } }, "Kevin Rodriguez": { "player_id": 1431770, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 190, "market_value": 4800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0506, "goal_rate": 0.0002, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.4851, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 2.2984, "dispossessed": 1.798, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1365, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.38, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15858574, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Royale Union Saint-Gilloise", "away_team": "RSC Anderlecht", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Royale Union Saint-Gilloise", "opponent": "RSC Anderlecht", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.9037, "expected_assists": 0.1931, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Pro League", "league_id": "38", "league_slug": "pro-league", "league_country": "Belgium", "season_id": "77040", "season_name": "Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15858595, "match_date": "2026-05-21", "home_team": "KAA Gent", "away_team": "Royale Union Saint-Gilloise", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Royale Union Saint-Gilloise", "opponent": "KAA Gent", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3789, "expected_assists": 0.0363, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Pro League", "league_id": "38", "league_slug": "pro-league", "league_country": "Belgium", "season_id": "77040", "season_name": "Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15858567, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Club Brugge KV", "away_team": "Royale Union Saint-Gilloise", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Royale Union Saint-Gilloise", "opponent": "Club Brugge KV", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1066, "expected_assists": 0.5139, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 21, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Pro League", "league_id": "38", "league_slug": "pro-league", "league_country": "Belgium", "season_id": "77040", "season_name": "Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15858578, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Royale Union Saint-Gilloise", "away_team": "KV Mechelen", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Royale Union Saint-Gilloise", "opponent": "KV Mechelen", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2786, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Pro League", "league_id": "38", "league_slug": "pro-league", "league_country": "Belgium", "season_id": "77040", "season_name": "Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14169218, "match_date": "2025-09-09", "home_team": "Ecuador", "away_team": "Argentina", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ecuador", "opponent": "Argentina", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14169216, "match_date": "2025-09-04", "home_team": "Paraguay", "away_team": "Ecuador", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ecuador", "opponent": "Paraguay", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13856226, "match_date": "2025-06-11", "home_team": "Peru", "away_team": "Ecuador", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ecuador", "opponent": "Peru", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 15, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13856221, "match_date": "2025-06-05", "home_team": "Ecuador", "away_team": "Brazil", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ecuador", "opponent": "Brazil", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13129491, "match_date": "2025-03-21", "home_team": "Ecuador", "away_team": "Venezuela", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ecuador", "opponent": "Venezuela", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 11886364, "match_date": "2024-07-01", "home_team": "Mexico", "away_team": "Ecuador", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ecuador", "opponent": "Mexico", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0348, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 19097, "combined_rank_score": 4626.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 395.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.925, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 8857.0, "fifa_overall": 67.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.4851, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kevin Rodriguez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kim Jin Kyu", "ranking": 19092 }, { "player_name": "Ephron Mason-Clark", "ranking": 19093 }, { "player_name": "Matteo Pérez Vinlöf", "ranking": 19094 }, { "player_name": "Mateo Pellegrino", "ranking": 19095 }, { "player_name": "Nicolas Schmid", "ranking": 19096 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bilal Bafdili", "ranking": 19098 }, { "player_name": "Nicholas Pierini", "ranking": 19099 }, { "player_name": "Ime Okon", "ranking": 19100 }, { "player_name": "Milan Havel", "ranking": 19101 }, { "player_name": "Sultan Mandash", "ranking": 19102 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.96, "expected_assists": 0.47, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 374, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 21, "avg_rating": 6.97, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Amad Diallo", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 49000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.821, "defenders": [ "Ángelo Preciado" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.445, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.629, "xg_contribution": 0.2035, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ángelo Preciado", "role": "RB", "market_value": 3600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.371 } ], "duel_analysis": "Amad Diallo (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Ángelo Preciado in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 63%. The quality gap is significant (€49M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.204 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Oumar Diakité", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 4900000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.461, "defenders": [ "Piero Hincapié" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.809, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "xg_contribution": 0.4875, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Piero Hincapié", "role": "LB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oumar Diakité (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Piero Hincapié in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €46M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.488 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Franck Kessié", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 10800000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.532, "defenders": [ "Kendry Páez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.502, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.497, "xg_contribution": 0.2033, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kendry Páez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 8300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.503 } ], "duel_analysis": "Franck Kessié (CAM) is evenly matched against Kendry Páez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Projected xG contribution: 0.203 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Elye Wahi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 19400000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.625, "defenders": [ "Willian Pacho", "Alan Franco" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.661, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.182, "xg_contribution": 0.0663, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Willian Pacho", "role": "CB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.818 }, { "player": "Alan Franco", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.818 } ], "duel_analysis": "Elye Wahi (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Willian Pacho and Alan Franco in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €35M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.066 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Simon Adingra", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Moisés Caicedo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.897, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.281, "xg_contribution": 0.1196, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Moisés Caicedo", "role": "CM", "market_value": 115000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719 } ], "duel_analysis": "Simon Adingra (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Moisés Caicedo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €115M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.120 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Enner Valencia", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 905000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.411, "defenders": [ "Emmanuel Agbadou" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.595, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "xg_contribution": 0.1483, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Emmanuel Agbadou", "role": "RB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.663 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enner Valencia (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Emmanuel Agbadou in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €16M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.148 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Gonzalo Plata", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 8600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.506, "defenders": [ "Guéla Doué" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.383, "xg_contribution": 0.0398, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Guéla Doué", "role": "LB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.617 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonzalo Plata (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Guéla Doué in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.040 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "John Yeboah", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5300000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.466, "defenders": [ "Ghislain Konan", "Wilfried Singo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.538, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2073, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ghislain Konan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Wilfried Singo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "John Yeboah (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ghislain Konan and Wilfried Singo in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.207 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Kendry Páez", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 8300000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.502, "defenders": [ "Simon Adingra" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.357, "xg_contribution": 0.042, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Simon Adingra", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.643 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kendry Páez (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Simon Adingra in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Moisés Caicedo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 115000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Simon Adingra" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.569, "xg_contribution": 0.2038, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Simon Adingra", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.431 } ], "duel_analysis": "Moisés Caicedo (CM) is slightly favored against Simon Adingra in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€115M vs €23M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.204 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.655, "away_midfield_power": 0.632, "home_creative_power": 0.675, "away_creative_power": 0.491, "home_defensive_power": 0.561, "away_defensive_power": 0.594, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.509, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 6, "home_midfield_players": [ "Simon Adingra", "Amad Diallo", "Franck Kessié", "Seko Fofana" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Gonzalo Plata", "Moisés Caicedo", "Kendry Páez", "Alan Franco", "Pervis Estupiñán", "Ángelo Preciado" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.4, "home_throughball_threat": 2.6, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Amad Diallo vs Moisés Caicedo", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.006, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.993 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.264, "away_lambda": 0.957, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Amad Diallo": { "opponents": [ "Ángelo Preciado", "Pervis Estupiñán" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Oumar Diakité": { "opponents": [ "Piero Hincapié" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Franck Kessié": { "opponents": [ "Kendry Páez", "Alan Franco", "Ángelo Preciado" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Elye Wahi": { "opponents": [ "Willian Pacho", "Alan Franco" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Simon Adingra": { "opponents": [ "Moisés Caicedo", "Kendry Páez", "Gonzalo Plata" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Emmanuel Agbadou": { "opponents": [ "Enner Valencia" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Guéla Doué": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo Plata" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ghislain Konan": { "opponents": [ "John Yeboah" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Wilfried Singo": { "opponents": [ "John Yeboah" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Seko Fofana": { "opponents": [ "Moisés Caicedo" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Yahia Fofana": { "opponents": [ "Enner Valencia", "John Yeboah" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Ángelo Preciado": { "opponents": [ "Amad Diallo", "Franck Kessié" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Piero Hincapié": { "opponents": [ "Oumar Diakité" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kendry Páez": { "opponents": [ "Franck Kessié", "Simon Adingra" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Willian Pacho": { "opponents": [ "Elye Wahi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alan Franco": { "opponents": [ "Elye Wahi", "Franck Kessié" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Moisés Caicedo": { "opponents": [ "Simon Adingra", "Seko Fofana" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Enner Valencia": { "opponents": [ "Emmanuel Agbadou" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Gonzalo Plata": { "opponents": [ "Guéla Doué", "Simon Adingra" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "John Yeboah": { "opponents": [ "Ghislain Konan", "Wilfried Singo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pervis Estupiñán": { "opponents": [ "Amad Diallo" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Hernán Galíndez": { "opponents": [ "Oumar Diakité", "Elye Wahi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Amad Diallo vs Moisés Caicedo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.08, Away: 0.64. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0246, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9995, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1415, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.051, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8805, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9535, "home_midfield_factor": 1.006, "away_midfield_factor": 0.993, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.5918, "away_avg_quality": 0.5894, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0024, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.4008, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.5823, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.2855, "elite_count_gap": -2, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0518, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.085, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1007, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 0.85, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.264, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.957, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.264, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.9567, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.264, "final_away_lambda": 0.957 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-14T13:42:13Z" }