{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Netherlands", "away_team": "Japan", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260614", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-0", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1293, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1293 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1101 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.1012 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.092 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0784 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0469, "0-1": 0.0334, "0-2": 0.0119, "0-3": 0.0028, "0-4": 0.0005, "1-0": 0.1101, "1-1": 0.0784, "1-2": 0.0279, "1-3": 0.0066, "1-4": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.1293, "2-1": 0.092, "2-2": 0.0328, "2-3": 0.0078, "2-4": 0.0014, "3-0": 0.1012, "3-1": 0.072, "3-2": 0.0256, "3-3": 0.0061, "3-4": 0.0011, "4-0": 0.0594, "4-1": 0.0423, "4-2": 0.0151, "4-3": 0.0036, "4-4": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0279, "5-1": 0.0199, "5-2": 0.0071, "5-3": 0.0017, "6-0": 0.0109, "6-1": 0.0078, "6-2": 0.0028, "6-3": 0.0007, "7-0": 0.0037, "7-1": 0.0026, "7-2": 0.0009, "8-0": 0.0011, "8-1": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.7398, "draw": 0.1648, "away_win": 0.0953 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.59, "under_2_5_goals": 0.41, "btts_yes": 0.4607, "btts_no": 0.5393, "home_clean_sheet": 0.4907, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0956 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.27, "MCR": 7.52, "ATR": 7.44, "GK": 7.01 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.39, "MCR": 6.84, "ATR": 6.97, "GK": 7.63 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Netherlands vs Japan. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Donyell Malen, Virgil van Dijk", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Ryan Gravenberch vs Takefusa Kubo). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.75, Away: 0.40. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run." }, "confidence": 0.84, "home_lambda": 2.348, "away_lambda": 0.712 }, "teams": { "Netherlands": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Donyell Malen": { "player_id": 803039, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 176, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4955, "goal_rate": 0.0684, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.2022, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.4394, "minutes": 95, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 34, "possession_lost": 13.7976, "dispossessed": 3.2851, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 1.3907, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 31, "progressive_carries": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.264, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Hiroki Itō, Tsuyoshi Watanabe", "opponent_faced": "Hiroki Itō, Tsuyoshi Watanabe", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "fifa_overall": 79.0, "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.5323 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 13980064, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Hellas Verona", "away_team": "AS Roma", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "AS Roma", "opponent": "Hellas Verona", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 2.0816, "expected_assists": 0.5246, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Serie A", "league_id": "23", "league_slug": "serie-a", "league_country": "Italy", "season_id": "76457", "season_name": "Serie A 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13980063, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "AS Roma", "away_team": "Lazio", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "AS Roma", "opponent": "Lazio", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1274, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Serie A", "league_id": "23", "league_slug": "serie-a", "league_country": "Italy", "season_id": "76457", "season_name": "Serie A 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13980062, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Parma", "away_team": "AS Roma", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "AS Roma", "opponent": "Parma", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.7425, "expected_assists": 0.2397, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Serie A", "league_id": "23", "league_slug": "serie-a", "league_country": "Italy", "season_id": "76457", "season_name": "Serie A 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631828, "match_date": "2026-03-12", "home_team": "Bologna", "away_team": "AS Roma", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "AS Roma", "opponent": "Bologna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3528, "expected_assists": 0.057, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233683, "match_date": "2025-11-17", "home_team": "Netherlands", "away_team": "Lithuania", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Netherlands", "opponent": "Lithuania", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 12496, "combined_rank_score": 496.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 110.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3857, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 883.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.4394, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Donyell Malen", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Chang-seok Lim", "ranking": 12491 }, { "player_name": "Nicola Nanni", "ranking": 12492 }, { "player_name": "Pervis Estupiñán", "ranking": 12493 }, { "player_name": "Federico Chiesa", "ranking": 12494 }, { "player_name": "Shohruh Gadoev", "ranking": 12495 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bafodé Diakité", "ranking": 12497 }, { "player_name": "Harry Sawyer", "ranking": 12498 }, { "player_name": "Nuno Santos", "ranking": 12499 }, { "player_name": "Miloš Kerkez", "ranking": 12500 }, { "player_name": "Fábio Silva", "ranking": 12501 } ] } } }, "Cody Gakpo": { "player_id": 862967, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 193, "market_value": 63000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1108, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0554, "rating": 7.5322, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 36, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_won": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.54, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Takefusa Kubo", "opponent_faced": "Takefusa Kubo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "fifa_overall": 84.0, "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0432 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023962, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.209, "expected_assists": 0.0502, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023928, "match_date": "2026-05-15", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5338, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632087, "match_date": "2026-04-14", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0439, "expected_assists": 0.1769, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632083, "match_date": "2026-04-08", "home_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631369, "match_date": "2026-03-18", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Galatasaray", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Galatasaray", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631351, "match_date": "2026-03-10", "home_team": "Galatasaray", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Galatasaray", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1005, "expected_assists": 0.0981, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233683, "match_date": "2025-11-17", "home_team": "Netherlands", "away_team": "Lithuania", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Netherlands", "opponent": "Lithuania", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 8.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 133, "combined_rank_score": 114.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 21.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.0375, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 207.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.5322, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Cody Gakpo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Tasos Bakasetas", "ranking": 128 }, { "player_name": "Hannibal Mejbri", "ranking": 129 }, { "player_name": "Kacper Potulski", "ranking": 130 }, { "player_name": "Luis Díaz", "ranking": 131 }, { "player_name": "Bremer", "ranking": 132 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sang-Min Koo", "ranking": 134 }, { "player_name": "Federico Dimarco", "ranking": 135 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Mac Allister", "ranking": 136 }, { "player_name": "Roger Ibañez", "ranking": 137 }, { "player_name": "João Palhinha", "ranking": 138 } ] } } }, "Tijjani Reijnders": { "player_id": 893549, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 185, "market_value": 58000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0505, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1097, "rating": 7.3641, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 8.5587, "dispossessed": 1.6565, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 1.1044, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 60, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.506, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Hiroki Itō", "opponent_faced": "Hiroki Itō", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "fifa_overall": 86.0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2587 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5414, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 26, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1144, "expected_assists": 0.0312, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631365, "match_date": "2026-03-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0919, "expected_assists": 0.0981, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631329, "match_date": "2026-03-11", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": 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"big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2383, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.579, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.75, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15981436, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "Celtic", "away_team": "Heart of Midlothian", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celtic", "opponent": "Heart of Midlothian", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2671, "expected_assists": 0.0488, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Scottish Premiership", "league_id": "36", "league_slug": "premiership", "league_country": "Scotland", "season_id": "77128", "season_name": "Premiership 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15981435, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Motherwell", "away_team": "Celtic", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celtic", "opponent": "Motherwell", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2151, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Scottish Premiership", "league_id": "36", "league_slug": "premiership", "league_country": "Scotland", "season_id": "77128", "season_name": "Premiership 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15981432, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Celtic", "away_team": "Rangers", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celtic", "opponent": "Rangers", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5609, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Scottish Premiership", "league_id": "36", "league_slug": "premiership", "league_country": "Scotland", "season_id": "77128", "season_name": "Premiership 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15981430, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Hibernian", "away_team": "Celtic", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celtic", "opponent": "Hibernian", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2859, "expected_assists": 0.2406, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Scottish Premiership", "league_id": "36", "league_slug": "premiership", "league_country": "Scotland", "season_id": "77128", "season_name": "Premiership 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 8451, "combined_rank_score": 451.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 751.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.509, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Daizen Maeda", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jose Caicedo", "ranking": 8446 }, { "player_name": "Kang-jun Heo", "ranking": 8447 }, { "player_name": "Abbas Hussein", "ranking": 8448 }, { "player_name": "Omar Al Emadi", "ranking": 8449 }, { "player_name": "Quinten Timber", "ranking": 8450 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Pavol Bajza", "ranking": 8452 }, { "player_name": "Oussama Benchchaoui", "ranking": 8453 }, { "player_name": "Gergő Tercza", "ranking": 8454 }, { "player_name": "Mostafa Osama Abouelela", "ranking": 8455 }, { "player_name": "Mohamed Hozian", "ranking": 8456 } ] } } }, "Kento Shiogai": { "player_id": 1499696, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 180, "market_value": 8199999, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.4784, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.7098, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "fifa_overall": 66.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14065563, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "FC St. Pauli", "away_team": "VfL Wolfsburg", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "VfL Wolfsburg", "opponent": "FC St. Pauli", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065251, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "VfL Wolfsburg", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "VfL Wolfsburg", "opponent": "FC Bayern München", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1263, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 19611, "combined_rank_score": 5102.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 10014.0, "fifa_overall": 66.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.4784, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kento Shiogai", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jack Iredale", "ranking": 19606 }, { "player_name": "Nachon Nsingi", "ranking": 19607 }, { "player_name": "Mahamadou Nagida", "ranking": 19608 }, { "player_name": "Mattie Pollock", "ranking": 19609 }, { "player_name": "Liam Lindsay", "ranking": 19610 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Shane Duffy", "ranking": 19612 }, { "player_name": "Maximilian Bauer", "ranking": 19613 }, { "player_name": "Yan Diomande", "ranking": 19614 }, { "player_name": "Marcel Franke", "ranking": 19615 }, { "player_name": "Villads Nielsen", "ranking": 19616 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.71, "expected_assists": 0.88, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 423, "interceptions": 11, "tackles": 19, "avg_rating": 7.07, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Tijjani Reijnders", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Hiroki Itō" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.629, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.506, "xg_contribution": 0.1234, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hiroki Itō", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.494 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tijjani Reijnders (LW) is slightly favored against Hiroki Itō in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €20M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.123 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Cody Gakpo", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 63000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.859, "defenders": [ "Takefusa Kubo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.54, "xg_contribution": 0.0651, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Takefusa Kubo", "role": "CM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.46 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cody Gakpo (CAM) is slightly favored against Takefusa Kubo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€63M vs €31M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.065 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ryan Gravenberch", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 98000000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.893, "defenders": [ "Hiroki Itō" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.629, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.547, "xg_contribution": 0.0651, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hiroki Itō", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.453 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryan Gravenberch (RW) is slightly favored against Hiroki Itō in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 55%. The quality gap is significant (€98M vs €20M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.065 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Donyell Malen", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Hiroki Itō", "Tsuyoshi Watanabe" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.572, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.264, "xg_contribution": 0.4955, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hiroki Itō", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736 }, { "player": "Tsuyoshi Watanabe", "role": "CB", "market_value": 9300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736 } ], "duel_analysis": "Donyell Malen (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Hiroki Itō and Tsuyoshi Watanabe in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€48M vs €15M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.495 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Keito Nakamura", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Micky van de Ven", "Virgil van Dijk" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.738, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0324, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Micky van de Ven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 63000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Virgil van Dijk", "role": "CB", "market_value": 18600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Keito Nakamura (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Micky van de Ven and Virgil van Dijk in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €41M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ayase Ueda", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 14600000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.575, "defenders": [ "Crysencio Summerville", "Micky van de Ven" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.799, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0801, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Crysencio Summerville", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Micky van de Ven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 63000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ayase Ueda (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Crysencio Summerville and Micky van de Ven in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€15M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.080 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Junya Ito", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Denzel Dumfries" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.24, "xg_contribution": 0.1641, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Denzel Dumfries", "role": "RB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.76 } ], "duel_analysis": "Junya Ito (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Denzel Dumfries in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.164 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Daichi Kamada", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 12400000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.55, "defenders": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.77, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.281, "xg_contribution": 0.0674, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "role": "LB", "market_value": 38000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daichi Kamada (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jan Paul van Hecke in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€12M vs €38M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.067 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Takefusa Kubo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Crysencio Summerville" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.739, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "xg_contribution": 0.0598, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Crysencio Summerville", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.556 } ], "duel_analysis": "Takefusa Kubo (CM) is evenly matched against Crysencio Summerville in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.060 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.877, "away_midfield_power": 0.634, "home_creative_power": 0.711, "away_creative_power": 0.528, "home_defensive_power": 0.746, "away_defensive_power": 0.64, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.58, "home_midfield_count": 6, "away_midfield_count": 6, "home_midfield_players": [ "Cody Gakpo", "Tijjani Reijnders", "Crysencio Summerville", "Frenkie de Jong", "Ryan Gravenberch", "Denzel Dumfries" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Junya Ito", "Takefusa Kubo", "Keito Nakamura", "Ao Tanaka", "Daichi Kamada", "Ritsu Doan" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.7, "home_throughball_threat": 2.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.2, "key_personal_duel": "Ryan Gravenberch vs Takefusa Kubo", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.021, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.97 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.348, "away_lambda": 0.712, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "LW vs CB" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Tijjani Reijnders": { "opponents": [ "Hiroki Itō", "Daichi Kamada" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Cody Gakpo": { "opponents": [ "Takefusa Kubo" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ryan Gravenberch": { "opponents": [ "Hiroki Itō", "Keito Nakamura" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Donyell Malen": { "opponents": [ "Hiroki Itō", "Tsuyoshi Watanabe" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Micky van de Ven": { "opponents": [ "Keito Nakamura", "Ayase Ueda" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Virgil van Dijk": { "opponents": [ "Keito Nakamura" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Crysencio Summerville": { "opponents": [ "Ayase Ueda", "Takefusa Kubo", "Ritsu Doan" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Denzel Dumfries": { "opponents": [ "Junya Ito", "Ao Tanaka" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jan Paul van Hecke": { "opponents": [ "Daichi Kamada" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Frenkie de Jong": { "opponents": [ "Junya Ito" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Bart Verbruggen": { "opponents": [ "Ayase Ueda", "Ritsu Doan" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Hiroki Itō": { "opponents": [ "Tijjani Reijnders", "Ryan Gravenberch", "Donyell Malen" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Takefusa Kubo": { "opponents": [ "Cody Gakpo", "Crysencio Summerville" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tsuyoshi Watanabe": { "opponents": [ "Donyell Malen" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Keito Nakamura": { "opponents": [ "Micky van de Ven", "Virgil van Dijk", "Ryan Gravenberch" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ayase Ueda": { "opponents": [ "Crysencio Summerville", "Micky van de Ven" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Junya Ito": { "opponents": [ "Denzel Dumfries", "Frenkie de Jong" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Daichi Kamada": { "opponents": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke", "Tijjani Reijnders" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ritsu Doan": { "opponents": [ "Crysencio Summerville" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Ao Tanaka": { "opponents": [ "Denzel Dumfries" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Zion Suzuki": { "opponents": [ "Donyell Malen", "Cody Gakpo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ko Itakura": { "opponents": [ "Donyell Malen" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Ryan Gravenberch vs Takefusa Kubo). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.75, Away: 0.40. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8767, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.108, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9726, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9022, "home_midfield_factor": 1.021, "away_midfield_factor": 0.97, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7878, "away_avg_quality": 0.5578, "avg_quality_gap": 0.23, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.2317, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.1903, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.2555, "elite_count_gap": 6, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3187, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.7012, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.4462, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1606, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0961, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.3187, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.15, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9538, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 2.042, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.746, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.0416, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7461, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 2.348, "final_away_lambda": 0.712 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-14T13:42:07Z" }