{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Haiti", "away_team": "Scotland", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260614", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "3-5-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-0", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1578, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1578 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1539 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1354 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1332 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0772 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1578, "0-1": 0.1332, "0-2": 0.0581, "0-3": 0.0167, "0-4": 0.0036, "0-5": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.1539, "1-1": 0.1354, "1-2": 0.0577, "1-3": 0.0166, "1-4": 0.0036, "1-5": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0772, "2-1": 0.0666, "2-2": 0.0287, "2-3": 0.0082, "2-4": 0.0018, "3-0": 0.0256, "3-1": 0.0221, "3-2": 0.0095, "3-3": 0.0027, "3-4": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0064, "4-1": 0.0055, "4-2": 0.0024, "4-3": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.0013, "5-1": 0.0011 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3732, "draw": 0.3248, "away_win": 0.302 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.2844, "under_2_5_goals": 0.7156, "btts_yes": 0.3654, "btts_no": 0.6346, "home_clean_sheet": 0.4223, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3701 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.57, "MCR": 6.63, "ATR": 6.68, "GK": 6.67 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 4.59, "MCR": 7.09, "ATR": 6.83, "GK": 6.67 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Haiti vs Scotland. Most likely scoreline: 0-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Wilson Isidor (LW) — Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank [0.231 xG]", "tactical_analysis": "4-3-3 creates structural superiority against 3-5-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Jean-Ricner Bellegarde vs Scott McTominay). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.71, Away: 0.32. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest." }, "confidence": 0.68, "home_lambda": 0.994, "away_lambda": 0.862 }, "teams": { "Haiti": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Johny Placide": { "player_id": 37224, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 181, "market_value": 155000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2944, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 90, "expected_saves": 0.67, "high_pressure_saves": 0.25, "shots_faced": 1.4, "opponent_faced": "Scott McTominay, Tommy Conway", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, "Jean-Kévin Duverne": { "player_id": 845930, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 29, "height": 184, "market_value": 2200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.3219, "minutes": 54, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 4.0623, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.5532, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3952, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.9714, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 15, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.785, "opponent_faced": "Ryan Christie", "pressing_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, "Hannes Delcroix": { "player_id": 826169, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 185, "market_value": 2100000, "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.0151, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 39, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 6.0247, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2551, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.3925, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.721, "opponent_faced": "Billy Gilmour", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, "Carlens Arcus": { "player_id": 794373, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 180, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.5133, "minutes": 51, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, "Wilguens Paugain": { "player_id": 1404526, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 180, "market_value": 620000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.423, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.5823, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 0.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.734, "opponent_faced": "Tommy Conway", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde": { "player_id": 845273, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 27, "height": 170, "market_value": 17600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 6.7716, "minutes": 32, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 1, 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"opponent_faced": "Scott McTominay", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, "Josué Casimir": { "player_id": 1035986, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 178, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0849, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 6.4293, "minutes": 64, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 9.1618, "dispossessed": 0.982, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, 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"goal_probability": 0.0 } }, "Wilson Isidor": { "player_id": 877980, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 184, "market_value": 18500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2306, "goal_rate": 0.4163, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0412, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.1163, "minutes": 50, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 4.1393, "dispossessed": 1.0348, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5691, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 15, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.508, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ryan Christie", "opponent_faced": "Ryan Christie", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, "Frantzdy Pierrot": { "player_id": 943278, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 194, "market_value": 2400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1764, "goal_rate": 0.2926, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.2643, "minutes": 47, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, 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"goal_probability": 0.0 } }, "Louicius Don Deedson": { "player_id": 991451, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 178, "market_value": 1300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2042, "goal_rate": 0.15, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 90, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "key_pass": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "crosses_attempted": 1.8, "duel_win_rate": 0.385, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Billy Gilmour", "opponent_faced": "Billy Gilmour", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } } }, "bench_players": { "Alexandre Pierre": { "player_id": 1091596, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 190, "market_value": 92000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.0144, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 4, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 } }, "Martin Expérience": { "player_id": 1110369, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 178, "market_value": 410000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 } }, "Ricardo Adé": { "player_id": 839638, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 190, "market_value": 310000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.7733, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, 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3, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 1.3969, "dispossessed": 1.0043, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.28 } }, "Che Adams": { "player_id": 773409, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 175, "market_value": 8199999, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5062, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 2.0215, "dispossessed": 1.5005, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1874, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54 } }, "Lawrence Shankland": { "player_id": 237098, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 185, "market_value": 3000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0749, "goal_rate": 0.1983, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7477, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 2.6196, "dispossessed": 1.1775, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1737, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.86, "expected_assists": 0.85, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 10, "total_passes": 303, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 11, "avg_rating": 6.32, "possession_estimated_pct": 52.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Wilson Isidor", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 18500000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.616, "defenders": [ "Ryan Christie" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.519, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.508, "xg_contribution": 0.2306, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ryan Christie", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 9700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.492 } ], "duel_analysis": "Wilson Isidor (LW) is slightly favored against Ryan Christie in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. Projected xG contribution: 0.231 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Louicius Don Deedson", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 1300000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.416, "defenders": [ "Billy Gilmour" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.619, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.385, "xg_contribution": 0.2042, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Billy Gilmour", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 18800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.615 } ], "duel_analysis": "Louicius Don Deedson (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Billy Gilmour in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €19M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.204 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Frantzdy Pierrot", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2400000, "attacker_height": 194, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.43, "defenders": [ "Nathan Patterson", "Andy Robertson", "Kieran Tierney" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.54, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "numerical_situation": "1v3", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1764, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nathan Patterson", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16300000, "tackles_attempted": 0.7, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Andy Robertson", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 0.7, "tackles_won": 0.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Kieran Tierney", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 0.7, "tackles_won": 0.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Frantzdy Pierrot (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Nathan Patterson and Andy Robertson and Kieran Tierney in a 3-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.176 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 17600000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.607, "defenders": [ "Scott McTominay" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.791, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.277, "xg_contribution": 0.1, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Scott McTominay", "role": "CM", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.723 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Scott McTominay in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€18M vs €42M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.100 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Tommy Conway", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Carlens Arcus", "Wilguens Paugain" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.416, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.266, "xg_contribution": 0.1164, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlens Arcus", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.734 }, { "player": "Wilguens Paugain", "role": "CB", "market_value": 620000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.734 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tommy Conway (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Carlens Arcus and Wilguens Paugain in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. Projected xG contribution: 0.116 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Billy Gilmour", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 18800000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.619, "defenders": [ "Louicius Don Deedson", "Hannes Delcroix" ], "defender_roles": [ "RW", "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.421, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.279, "xg_contribution": 0.0103, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Louicius Don Deedson", "role": "RW", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.721 }, { "player": "Hannes Delcroix", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.721 } ], "duel_analysis": "Billy Gilmour (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Louicius Don Deedson and Hannes Delcroix in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.010 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ryan Christie", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Wilson Isidor", "Jean-Kévin Duverne" ], "defender_roles": [ "LW", "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.522, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.215, "xg_contribution": 0.0278, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Wilson Isidor", "role": "LW", "market_value": 18500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.785 }, { "player": "Jean-Kévin Duverne", "role": "LB", "market_value": 2200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.785 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryan Christie (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Wilson Isidor and Jean-Kévin Duverne in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Projected xG contribution: 0.028 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Scott McTominay", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 42000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.791, "defenders": [ "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.607, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.563, "xg_contribution": 0.1484, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde", "role": "CM", "market_value": 17600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.437 } ], "duel_analysis": "Scott McTominay (CM) is slightly favored against Jean-Ricner Bellegarde in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€42M vs €18M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.148 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Lewis Ferguson", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 16700000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.597, "defenders": [ "Josué Casimir" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.44, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.503, "xg_contribution": 0.0142, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Josué Casimir", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.497 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lewis Ferguson (CDM) is slightly favored against Josué Casimir in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Projected xG contribution: 0.014 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.496, "away_midfield_power": 0.67, "home_creative_power": 0.421, "away_creative_power": 0.575, "home_defensive_power": 0.421, "away_defensive_power": 0.582, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.425, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde", "Josué Casimir", "Danley Jean Jacques" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Scott McTominay", "Billy Gilmour", "Lewis Ferguson", "John McGinn", "Ryan Christie" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 47.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 52.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.9, "home_throughball_threat": 1.9, "away_throughball_threat": 2.3, "key_personal_duel": "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde vs Scott McTominay", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.972, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.027 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.08, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "4-3-3 creates structural superiority against 3-5-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition." }, "home_lambda": 0.994, "away_lambda": 0.862, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Wilson Isidor": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Christie" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Louicius Don Deedson": { "opponents": [ "Billy Gilmour" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Frantzdy Pierrot": { "opponents": [ "Nathan Patterson", "Andy Robertson", "Kieran Tierney" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde": { "opponents": [ "Scott McTominay", "Ryan Christie" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carlens Arcus": { "opponents": [ "Tommy Conway" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Wilguens Paugain": { "opponents": [ "Tommy Conway" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Hannes Delcroix": { "opponents": [ "Billy Gilmour" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jean-Kévin Duverne": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Christie" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Josué Casimir": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Ferguson", "Billy Gilmour" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Danley Jean Jacques": { "opponents": [ "John McGinn" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Johny Placide": { "opponents": [ "George Hirst", "Tommy Conway" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Ryan Christie": { "opponents": [ "Wilson Isidor", "Jean-Kévin Duverne", "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Billy Gilmour": { "opponents": [ "Louicius Don Deedson", "Hannes Delcroix", "Josué Casimir" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nathan Patterson": { "opponents": [ "Frantzdy Pierrot" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Andy Robertson": { "opponents": [ "Frantzdy Pierrot" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kieran Tierney": { "opponents": [ "Frantzdy Pierrot" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Scott McTominay": { "opponents": [ "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tommy Conway": { "opponents": [ "Carlens Arcus", "Wilguens Paugain" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lewis Ferguson": { "opponents": [ "Josué Casimir" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "John McGinn": { "opponents": [ "Danley Jean Jacques" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Angus Gunn": { "opponents": [ "Wilson Isidor", "Louicius Don Deedson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "George Hirst": { "opponents": [ "Jean-Kévin Duverne", "Hannes Delcroix" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Jean-Ricner Bellegarde vs Scott McTominay). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.71, Away: 0.32. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0178, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0252, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.066, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.092, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9865, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0118, "home_midfield_factor": 0.972, "away_midfield_factor": 1.027, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4634, "away_avg_quality": 0.5746, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1112, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.9619, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.7677, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.8402, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2324, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1673, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1162, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0681, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0658, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.9941, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8618, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 0.994, "final_away_lambda": 0.862 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-01T17:34:20Z" }