{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Sweden", "away_team": "Tunisia", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260614", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-1-2", "away_formation": "4-3-3" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1462, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1462 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1333 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1023 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0933 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0811 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0801, "0-1": 0.0561, "0-2": 0.0196, "0-3": 0.0046, "0-4": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.1462, "1-1": 0.1023, "1-2": 0.0358, "1-3": 0.0084, "1-4": 0.0015, "2-0": 0.1333, "2-1": 0.0933, "2-2": 0.0327, "2-3": 0.0076, "2-4": 0.0013, "3-0": 0.0811, "3-1": 0.0567, "3-2": 0.0199, "3-3": 0.0046, "3-4": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.037, "4-1": 0.0259, "4-2": 0.0091, "4-3": 0.0021, "5-0": 0.0135, "5-1": 0.0094, "5-2": 0.0033, "5-3": 0.0008, "6-0": 0.0041, "6-1": 0.0029, "6-2": 0.001, "7-0": 0.0011, "7-1": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.6426, "draw": 0.2201, "away_win": 0.1373 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4623, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5377, "btts_yes": 0.4222, "btts_no": 0.5778, "home_clean_sheet": 0.4966, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1614 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.76, "MCR": 6.72, "ATR": 6.88, "GK": 6.68 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.7, "MCR": 6.7, "ATR": 6.67, "GK": 6.67 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Sweden vs Tunisia. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Viktor Gyökeres", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-1-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Yasin Ayari vs Hannibal Mejbri will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.65, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel. Away danger zone: RW vs CB." }, "confidence": 0.78, "home_lambda": 1.824, "away_lambda": 0.7 }, "teams": { "Sweden": { "formation": "3-4-1-2", "players": { "Kristoffer Nordfeldt": { "player_id": 22596, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 190, "market_value": 190000, "stats": { "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.0082, "rating": 6.6841, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 9, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 33, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 15.209, "duels_won": 2, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "expected_saves": 0.86, "high_pressure_saves": 0.33, "shots_faced": 1.9, "opponent_faced": "Rani Khedira, Firas Chaouat", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "fifa_overall": 72.0, "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15129806, "match_date": "2026-03-31", "home_team": "Sweden", "away_team": "Poland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sweden", "opponent": "Poland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15126915, "match_date": "2026-03-26", "home_team": "Ukraine", "away_team": "Sweden", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sweden", "opponent": "Ukraine", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 16032, "combined_rank_score": 2077.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 320.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 3834.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.6841, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kristoffer Nordfeldt", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ivica Ivušić", "ranking": 16027 }, { "player_name": "Lyle Foster", "ranking": 16028 }, { "player_name": "Jo Hyeon Woo", "ranking": 16029 }, { "player_name": "Kosta Nedeljković", "ranking": 16030 }, { "player_name": "Leandro Díaz", "ranking": 16031 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Salih Uçan", "ranking": 16033 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Coronel", "ranking": 16034 }, { "player_name": "Musab Al Juwair", "ranking": 16035 }, { "player_name": "Wilson Isidor", "ranking": 16036 }, { "player_name": "Mateo Chávez", "ranking": 16037 } ] } } }, "Isak Hien": { "player_id": 1157713, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 191, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8348, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 27, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 42, "possession_lost": 2.9183, "dispossessed": 1.0422, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0521, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.708, "opponent_faced": "Firas Chaouat", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "fifa_overall": 78.0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0625 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 13980080, "match_date": "2026-05-22", "home_team": "Fiorentina", "away_team": "Atalanta", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atalanta", "opponent": "Fiorentina", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0458, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 34, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Serie A", "league_id": "23", "league_slug": "serie-a", "league_country": "Italy", "season_id": "76457", "season_name": "Serie A 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13980096, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "AC Milan", "away_team": "Atalanta", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atalanta", "opponent": "AC Milan", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Serie A", "league_id": "23", "league_slug": "serie-a", "league_country": "Italy", "season_id": "76457", "season_name": "Serie A 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15126915, "match_date": "2026-03-26", "home_team": "Ukraine", "away_team": "Sweden", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sweden", "opponent": "Ukraine", "stats": { "minutes": 37, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. 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"team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atalanta", "opponent": "FC Bayern München", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 4.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 14021, "combined_rank_score": 861.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 457.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8667, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 1265.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8348, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Isak Hien", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jon Guridi", "ranking": 14016 }, { "player_name": "James Ward-Prowse", "ranking": 14017 }, { "player_name": "Radosław Majecki", "ranking": 14018 }, { "player_name": "James Trafford", "ranking": 14019 }, { "player_name": "Robin Hack", "ranking": 14020 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Julián Alfaro", "ranking": 14022 }, { "player_name": "Francisco Jose Pozzo", "ranking": 14023 }, { "player_name": "Carl Starfelt", "ranking": 14024 }, { "player_name": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "ranking": 14025 }, { "player_name": "Jeffrey Gouweleeuw", "ranking": 14026 } ] } } }, "Victor Lindelöf": { "player_id": 143334, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 187, "market_value": 5800000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7966, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 50, "duels_won": 2, 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"matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "fifa_overall": 78.0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0345 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 53, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632626, "match_date": "2026-05-20", "home_team": "SC Freiburg", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": 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"league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023929, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 36, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632625, "match_date": "2026-05-07", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.5, 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"36", "league_slug": "premiership", "league_country": "Scotland", "season_id": "77128", "season_name": "Premiership 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15981430, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Hibernian", "away_team": "Celtic", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celtic", "opponent": "Hibernian", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0249, "expected_assists": 0.2296, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Scottish Premiership", "league_id": "36", "league_slug": "premiership", "league_country": "Scotland", "season_id": "77128", "season_name": "Premiership 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17827, "combined_rank_score": 3512.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 6818.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.3911, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sebastian Tounekti", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Michael Ngadeu", "ranking": 17822 }, { "player_name": "João Simões", "ranking": 17823 }, { "player_name": "Shapi Suleymanov", "ranking": 17824 }, { "player_name": "Eíran Cashin", "ranking": 17825 }, { "player_name": "Dardo Miloc", "ranking": 17826 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mihailo Ivanović", "ranking": 17828 }, { "player_name": "Nicolò Tresoldi", "ranking": 17829 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Siebatcheu", "ranking": 17830 }, { "player_name": "Calegari", "ranking": 17831 }, { "player_name": "Koray Günter", "ranking": 17832 } ] } } }, "Anis Ben Slimane": { "player_id": 1006147, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 188, "market_value": 3100000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.024, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "rating": 6.6749, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.98, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 722, "combined_rank_score": 162.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 85.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6749, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Anis Ben Slimane", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ruan Pereira Duarte", "ranking": 717 }, { "player_name": "Karim Dermane", "ranking": 718 }, { "player_name": "Oliver Valaker Edvardsen", "ranking": 719 }, { "player_name": "Cauly", "ranking": 720 }, { "player_name": "Théo Bongonda", "ranking": 721 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gustavo Martins", "ranking": 723 }, { "player_name": "Léo Linck", "ranking": 724 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Moreno", "ranking": 725 }, { "player_name": "Milan Iloski", "ranking": 726 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Pereira", "ranking": 727 } ] } } }, "Elias Saad": { "player_id": 1130946, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 185, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0414, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 25, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "key_pass": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 16183, "combined_rank_score": 2204.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 4165.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6724, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Elias Saad", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ignacio Aliseda", "ranking": 16178 }, { "player_name": "Federico Baschirotto", "ranking": 16179 }, { "player_name": "George Ilenikhena", "ranking": 16180 }, { "player_name": "Federico Redondo", "ranking": 16181 }, { "player_name": "Julien Duranville", "ranking": 16182 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Abdón Prats", "ranking": 16184 }, { "player_name": "Enzo Copetti", "ranking": 16185 }, { "player_name": "Oumar Diakité", "ranking": 16186 }, { "player_name": "Keaton Parks", "ranking": 16187 }, { "player_name": "Wout Faes", "ranking": 16188 } ] } } }, "Khalil Ayari": { "player_id": 1606568, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 174, "market_value": 775000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0414, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 25, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "key_pass": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1946, "combined_rank_score": 339.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 378.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6724, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Khalil Ayari", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Juan Dinenno", "ranking": 1941 }, { "player_name": "Branislav Knežević", "ranking": 1942 }, { "player_name": "Matija Glušćević", "ranking": 1943 }, { "player_name": "Thiago Santana", "ranking": 1944 }, { "player_name": "Fabinho", "ranking": 1945 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dailon Rocha Livramento", "ranking": 1947 }, { "player_name": "Andronikos Kakoullis", "ranking": 1948 }, { "player_name": "Dimitrios Chatsidis", "ranking": 1949 }, { "player_name": "Mateusinho", "ranking": 1950 }, { "player_name": "Osaze De Rosario", "ranking": 1951 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7, "expected_assists": 0.91, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 379, "interceptions": 3, "tackles": 4, "avg_rating": 6.7, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Viktor Gyökeres", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 61000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.855, "defenders": [ "Ali Abdi", "Omar Rekik" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.415, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.408, "xg_contribution": 0.1807, "shots_in_zone": 2.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ali Abdi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.592 }, { "player": "Omar Rekik", "role": "CB", "market_value": 515000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.592 } ], "duel_analysis": "Viktor Gyökeres (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Ali Abdi and Omar Rekik in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 41%. The quality gap is significant (€61M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.181 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Benjamin Nygren", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Ellyes Skhiri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "xg_contribution": 0.1957, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ellyes Skhiri", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.52 } ], "duel_analysis": "Benjamin Nygren (CAM) is evenly matched against Ellyes Skhiri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.196 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jesper Karlström", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 4099999, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.451, "defenders": [ "Rani Khedira", "Yan Valery" ], "defender_roles": [ "RW", "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.421, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.221, "xg_contribution": 0.053, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rani Khedira", "role": "RW", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.779 }, { "player": "Yan Valery", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.779 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jesper Karlström (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Rani Khedira and Yan Valery in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Projected xG contribution: 0.053 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Firas Chaouat", "Montassar Talbi" ], "defender_roles": [ "LW", "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.452, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.299, "xg_contribution": 0.0771, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Firas Chaouat", "role": "LW", "market_value": 770000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.701 }, { "player": "Montassar Talbi", "role": "LB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.701 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gabriel Gudmundsson (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Firas Chaouat and Montassar Talbi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.077 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Yasin Ayari", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Hannibal Mejbri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.597, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.424, "xg_contribution": 0.1395, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hannibal Mejbri", "role": "CM", "market_value": 16700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.576 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yasin Ayari (CM) is evenly matched against Hannibal Mejbri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.140 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Hannibal Mejbri", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 16700000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.597, "defenders": [ "Yasin Ayari" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.416, "xg_contribution": 0.0606, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "role": "CM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.584 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hannibal Mejbri (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Yasin Ayari in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.061 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ismael Gharbi", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 4800000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.46, "defenders": [ "Yasin Ayari" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.319, "xg_contribution": 0.0419, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "role": "CM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.681 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ismael Gharbi (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Yasin Ayari in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €27M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Firas Chaouat", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 770000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.41, "defenders": [ "Isak Hien" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.292, "xg_contribution": 0.1191, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Isak Hien", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.708 } ], "duel_analysis": "Firas Chaouat (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Isak Hien in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.119 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Elias Achouri", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3800000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.447, "defenders": [ "Isak Hien", "Victor Lindelöf" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.556, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0317, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Isak Hien", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Victor Lindelöf", "role": "CB", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Elias Achouri (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Isak Hien and Victor Lindelöf in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Rani Khedira", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.426, "defenders": [ "Isak Hien" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "xg_contribution": 0.1582, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Isak Hien", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rani Khedira (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Isak Hien in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.158 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.548, "away_midfield_power": 0.529, "home_creative_power": 0.59, "away_creative_power": 0.455, "home_defensive_power": 0.554, "away_defensive_power": 0.417, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.509, "home_midfield_count": 2, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Yasin Ayari", "Jesper Karlström" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Elias Achouri", "Rani Khedira", "Hannibal Mejbri", "Ellyes Skhiri", "Ismael Gharbi" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.2, "home_throughball_threat": 2.4, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Yasin Ayari vs Hannibal Mejbri", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.014, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.991 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-1-2", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.06, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.06, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-1-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.824, "away_lambda": 0.7, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "RW vs CB", "LW vs CB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Viktor Gyökeres": { "opponents": [ "Ali Abdi", "Omar Rekik" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Benjamin Nygren": { "opponents": [ "Ellyes Skhiri" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jesper Karlström": { "opponents": [ "Rani Khedira", "Yan Valery", "Hannibal Mejbri" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gabriel Gudmundsson": { "opponents": [ "Firas Chaouat", "Montassar Talbi" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yasin Ayari": { "opponents": [ "Hannibal Mejbri", "Ismael Gharbi", "Ellyes Skhiri", "Elias Achouri" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Isak Hien": { "opponents": [ "Firas Chaouat", "Elias Achouri", "Rani Khedira" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Victor Lindelöf": { "opponents": [ "Elias Achouri" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kristoffer Nordfeldt": { "opponents": [ "Firas Chaouat", "Ismael Gharbi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Gustaf Lagerbielke": { "opponents": [ "Firas Chaouat" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Alexander Isak": { "opponents": [ "Montassar Talbi", "Ali Abdi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Alexander Bernhardsson": { "opponents": [ "Yan Valery", "Omar Rekik" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Ali Abdi": { "opponents": [ "Viktor Gyökeres" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Omar Rekik": { "opponents": [ "Viktor Gyökeres" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ellyes Skhiri": { "opponents": [ "Benjamin Nygren", "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rani Khedira": { "opponents": [ "Jesper Karlström", "Isak Hien" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yan Valery": { "opponents": [ "Jesper Karlström" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Firas Chaouat": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "Isak Hien" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Montassar Talbi": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Hannibal Mejbri": { "opponents": [ "Yasin Ayari", "Jesper Karlström" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ismael Gharbi": { "opponents": [ "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Elias Achouri": { "opponents": [ "Isak Hien", "Victor Lindelöf", "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Abdelmouhib Chamakh": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Isak", "Alexander Bernhardsson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Yasin Ayari vs Hannibal Mejbri will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.65, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel. Away danger zone: RW vs CB.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0238, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.025, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.088, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0121, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9611, "home_midfield_factor": 1.014, "away_midfield_factor": 0.991, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6134, "away_avg_quality": 0.4545, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1588, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.6195, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.6198, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.6147, "elite_count_gap": 2, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2696, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.5931, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.3774, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.016, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0629, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.2696, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1343, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9596, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.608, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.713, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 0.7, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.824, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.684, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.608, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7129, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.824, "final_away_lambda": 0.7 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-14T13:42:26Z" }