{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Iran", "away_team": "New Zealand", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260615", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "5-3-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1439, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1439 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.139 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1361 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1264 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0766 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.139, "0-1": 0.1439, "0-2": 0.0766, "0-3": 0.0269, "0-4": 0.0071, "0-5": 0.0015, "1-0": 0.1264, "1-1": 0.1361, "1-2": 0.0711, "1-3": 0.025, "1-4": 0.0066, "1-5": 0.0014, "2-0": 0.0593, "2-1": 0.0625, "2-2": 0.033, "2-3": 0.0116, "2-4": 0.0031, "2-5": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0183, "3-1": 0.0193, "3-2": 0.0102, "3-3": 0.0036, "3-4": 0.0009, "4-0": 0.0043, "4-1": 0.0045, "4-2": 0.0024, "4-3": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0008, "5-1": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3107, "draw": 0.3119, "away_win": 0.3774 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3187, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6813, "btts_yes": 0.3955, "btts_no": 0.6045, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3482, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3953 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.57, "MCR": 6.67, "ATR": 6.79, "GK": 6.67 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.44, "MCR": 6.71, "ATR": 6.36, "GK": 6.67 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Iran vs New Zealand. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Elijah Just", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Saeid Ezatolahi vs Joe Bell will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.50, Away: 0.65. Home danger zone: Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: RW vs LWB + CB." }, "confidence": 0.69, "home_lambda": 0.928, "away_lambda": 1.055 }, "teams": { "Iran": { "formation": "5-3-2", "players": { "Alireza Beiranvand": { "player_id": 791374, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 194, "market_value": 600000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2944, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 90, "expected_saves": 1.37, "high_pressure_saves": 0.52, "shots_faced": 2.9, "opponent_faced": "Elijah Just, Sarpreet Singh", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "fifa_overall": 82.0, "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2492, "combined_rank_score": 383.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 430.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.6724, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alireza Beiranvand", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gustavo Gómez", "ranking": 2487 }, { "player_name": "Brayan Rovira", "ranking": 2488 }, { "player_name": "Ben Gannon-Doak", "ranking": 2489 }, { "player_name": "Jong-Min Park", "ranking": 2490 }, { "player_name": "Yota Sato", "ranking": 2491 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kenji Gorré", "ranking": 2493 }, { "player_name": "Duván Zapata", "ranking": 2494 }, { "player_name": "Kei Koizumi", "ranking": 2495 }, { "player_name": "Gerard Valentín", "ranking": 2496 }, { "player_name": "Kazuya Miyahara", "ranking": 2497 } ] } } }, "Saleh Hardani": { "player_id": 1836024, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 176, "market_value": 770000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.709, "opponent_faced": "Elijah Just", "pressing_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel", "fifa_overall": 82.0, "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2258, "combined_rank_score": 322.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 323.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.5742, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Saleh Hardani", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Chico Banza", "ranking": 2253 }, { "player_name": "Moisés Villarroel", "ranking": 2254 }, { "player_name": "Jeremy Antonisse", "ranking": 2255 }, { "player_name": "Jan Zíka", "ranking": 2256 }, { "player_name": "Franck Boli", "ranking": 2257 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Constantinos Sotiriou", "ranking": 2259 }, { "player_name": "Jiří Sláma", "ranking": 2260 }, { "player_name": "Eric Valencia", "ranking": 2261 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Štefulj", "ranking": 2262 }, { "player_name": "Martin Pečar", "ranking": 2263 } ] } } }, "Ramin Rezaeian": { "player_id": 786133, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 186, "market_value": 230000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0981, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0491, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 36, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 1, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.396, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marko Stamenić", "opponent_faced": "Marko Stamenić", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "fifa_overall": 80.0, "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5459, "combined_rank_score": 540.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 671.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.6724, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ramin Rezaeian", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Abdelhay El Forsy", "ranking": 5454 }, { "player_name": "Matúš Rusnák", "ranking": 5455 }, { "player_name": "Ronaldo Báez", "ranking": 5456 }, { "player_name": "Sebastián Tamara", "ranking": 5457 }, { "player_name": "Chukwu Emmanuel", "ranking": 5458 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mouad Enzo", "ranking": 5460 }, { "player_name": "Sami Habib", "ranking": 5461 }, { "player_name": "Luca Szimionas", "ranking": 5462 }, { "player_name": "Humam Tariq", "ranking": 5463 }, { "player_name": "David Babunski", "ranking": 5464 } ] } } }, "Mehdi Taremi": { "player_id": 812533, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 187, "market_value": 2600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1833, "goal_rate": 0.0008, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5675, "minutes": 28, "total_shots": 1, 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"opponent": "Panathinaikos FC", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3108, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Stoiximan Super League", "league_id": "185", "league_slug": "stoiximan-super-league", "league_country": "Greece", "season_id": "78175", "season_name": "Super League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15866466, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Olympiacos FC", "away_team": "PAOK", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Olympiacos FC", "opponent": "PAOK", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1561, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5 }, 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190, "market_value": 745000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1534, "goal_rate": 0.14, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.081, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 8.1, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.171, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 47, "progressive_carries": 5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, 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"ranking": 2061 }, { "player_name": "Ha Jung-Woo", "ranking": 2062 }, { "player_name": "Martin Agnarsson", "ranking": 2063 }, { "player_name": "Stefan Pirgić", "ranking": 2064 }, { "player_name": "Ibrahim Kanate", "ranking": 2065 } ] } } }, "Saeid Ezatolahi": { "player_id": 359334, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 190, "market_value": 1700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0981, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0491, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 36, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.45, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marko Stamenić", "opponent_faced": "Marko Stamenić", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, 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"accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 0.8273, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14671777, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Western Sydney Wanderers", "away_team": "Sydney FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Western Sydney Wanderers", "opponent": "Sydney FC", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "A-League Men", "league_id": "136", "league_slug": "a-league-men", "league_country": "Australia", "season_id": "82603", "season_name": "A-League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 18382, "combined_rank_score": 3996.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 794.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5773, "sofascore_appearances": 22.0, "fifa_rank": 7198.0, "fifa_overall": 68.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.2949, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kosta Barbarouses", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Etienne Camara", "ranking": 18377 }, { "player_name": "Habib Gueye", "ranking": 18378 }, { "player_name": "Filip Marchwiński", "ranking": 18379 }, { "player_name": "Vladyslav Dubinchak", "ranking": 18380 }, { "player_name": "Franculino", "ranking": 18381 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Santiago Hidalgo", "ranking": 18383 }, { "player_name": "Andries Noppert", "ranking": 18384 }, { "player_name": "Elijah Adebayo", "ranking": 18385 }, { "player_name": "Jordi Liongola", "ranking": 18386 }, { "player_name": "Thomas Oude Kotte", "ranking": 18387 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.05, "expected_assists": 0.54, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 367, "interceptions": 4, "tackles": 9, "avg_rating": 6.6, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Shahriar Moghanlou", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 745000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.409, "defenders": [ "Michael Boxall", "Finn Surman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.411, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.203, "xg_contribution": 0.1534, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Michael Boxall", "role": "CB", "market_value": 155000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.797 }, { "player": "Finn Surman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.797 } ], "duel_analysis": "Shahriar Moghanlou (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Michael Boxall and Finn Surman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Projected xG contribution: 0.153 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Saleh Hardani", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 770000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.41, "defenders": [ "Matthew Garbett" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.405, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.354, "xg_contribution": 0.0639, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matthew Garbett", "role": "RB", "market_value": 440000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.646 } ], "duel_analysis": "Saleh Hardani (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Matthew Garbett in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Projected xG contribution: 0.064 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Mehdi Taremi", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.432, "defenders": [ "Tim Payne" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.404, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.445, "xg_contribution": 0.1833, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tim Payne", "role": "LB", "market_value": 340000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.555 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mehdi Taremi (RWB) is evenly matched against Tim Payne in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.183 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ramin Rezaeian", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 230000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.403, "defenders": [ "Marko Stamenić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.396, "xg_contribution": 0.0472, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 1, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marko Stamenić", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.604 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ramin Rezaeian (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Marko Stamenić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Saeid Ezatolahi", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.421, "defenders": [ "Marko Stamenić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.45, "xg_contribution": 0.0511, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marko Stamenić", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.55 } ], "duel_analysis": "Saeid Ezatolahi (CM) is evenly matched against Marko Stamenić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Sarpreet Singh", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 485000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.406, "defenders": [ "Mehdi Taremi", "Shoja Khalilzadeh" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.417, "duel_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.243, "xg_contribution": 0.1354, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mehdi Taremi", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.757 }, { "player": "Shoja Khalilzadeh", "role": "CB", "market_value": 110000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.757 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sarpreet Singh (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Mehdi Taremi and Shoja Khalilzadeh in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. Projected xG contribution: 0.135 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Elijah Just", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.434, "defenders": [ "Saleh Hardani", "Shoja Khalilzadeh" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.405, "duel_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.291, "xg_contribution": 0.4072, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Saleh Hardani", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 770000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.709 }, { "player": "Shoja Khalilzadeh", "role": "CB", "market_value": 110000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.709 } ], "duel_analysis": "Elijah Just (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Saleh Hardani and Shoja Khalilzadeh in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 29%. Projected xG contribution: 0.407 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Joe Bell", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Saeid Ezatolahi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.421, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.399, "xg_contribution": 0.0475, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Saeid Ezatolahi", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.601 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joe Bell (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Saeid Ezatolahi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.048 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Chris Wood", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Shoja Khalilzadeh", "Hossein Kanaani" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.41, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.247, "xg_contribution": 0.0108, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Shoja Khalilzadeh", "role": "CB", "market_value": 110000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.753 }, { "player": "Hossein Kanaani", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.753 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chris Wood (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Shoja Khalilzadeh and Hossein Kanaani in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. Projected xG contribution: 0.011 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Marko Stamenić", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Ramin Rezaeian" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.403, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "xg_contribution": 0.0507, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ramin Rezaeian", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 230000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.556 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marko Stamenić (CDM) is evenly matched against Ramin Rezaeian in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.413, "away_midfield_power": 0.501, "home_creative_power": 0.351, "away_creative_power": 0.405, "home_defensive_power": 0.351, "away_defensive_power": 0.36, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.452, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 6, "home_midfield_players": [ "Ramin Rezaeian", "Saeid Ezatolahi", "Saman Ghoddos" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Sarpreet Singh", "Matthew Garbett", "Elijah Just", "Marko Stamenić", "Joe Bell", "Liberato Cacace" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 5.9, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "home_throughball_threat": 1.7, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Saeid Ezatolahi vs Joe Bell", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.988, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.016 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "5-3-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.928, "away_lambda": 1.055, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "RW vs LWB + CB", "LW vs RWB + CB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Shahriar Moghanlou": { "opponents": [ "Michael Boxall", "Finn Surman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Saleh Hardani": { "opponents": [ "Matthew Garbett", "Elijah Just" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Mehdi Taremi": { "opponents": [ "Tim Payne", "Sarpreet Singh" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Ramin Rezaeian": { "opponents": [ "Marko Stamenić", "Joe Bell", "Sarpreet Singh" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Saeid Ezatolahi": { "opponents": [ "Marko Stamenić", "Joe Bell", "Matthew Garbett" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Shoja Khalilzadeh": { "opponents": [ "Sarpreet Singh", "Elijah Just", "Chris Wood" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Hossein Kanaani": { "opponents": [ "Chris Wood" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Saman Ghoddos": { "opponents": [ "Liberato Cacace", "Elijah Just" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Alireza Beiranvand": { "opponents": [ "Chris Wood", "Liberato Cacace" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Milad Mohammadi": { "opponents": [ "Chris Wood" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Mohammad Mohebi": { "opponents": [ "Finn Surman", "Tim Payne" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Michael Boxall": { "opponents": [ "Shahriar Moghanlou" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Finn Surman": { "opponents": [ "Shahriar Moghanlou" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Matthew Garbett": { "opponents": [ "Saleh Hardani", "Saeid Ezatolahi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tim Payne": { "opponents": [ "Mehdi Taremi" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marko Stamenić": { "opponents": [ "Ramin Rezaeian", "Saeid Ezatolahi" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sarpreet Singh": { "opponents": [ "Mehdi Taremi", "Shoja Khalilzadeh", "Ramin Rezaeian" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Elijah Just": { "opponents": [ "Saleh Hardani", "Shoja Khalilzadeh", "Saman Ghoddos" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Joe Bell": { "opponents": [ "Saeid Ezatolahi", "Ramin Rezaeian" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Chris Wood": { "opponents": [ "Shoja Khalilzadeh", "Hossein Kanaani" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Liberato Cacace": { "opponents": [ "Saman Ghoddos" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Max Crocombe": { "opponents": [ "Mohammad Mohebi", "Mehdi Taremi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Saeid Ezatolahi vs Joe Bell will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.50, Away: 0.65. Home danger zone: Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: RW vs LWB + CB.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0209, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0229, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.134, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.128, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.031, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0205, "home_midfield_factor": 0.988, "away_midfield_factor": 1.016, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4155, "away_avg_quality": 0.4248, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0094, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.2901, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.3222, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.3935, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0353, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0461, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.043, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 0.85, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.928, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.055, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.9281, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.055, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 0.928, "final_away_lambda": 1.055 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-15T13:40:07Z" }