{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Sweden", "away_team": "Tunisia", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260615", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-0", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1577, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1577 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.1311 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1263 }, { "score": "4-0", "probability": 0.0817 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.077 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0509, "0-1": 0.0246, "0-2": 0.006, "0-3": 0.001, "1-0": 0.1263, "1-1": 0.0619, "1-2": 0.0151, "1-3": 0.0024, "2-0": 0.1577, "2-1": 0.077, "2-2": 0.0188, "2-3": 0.0031, "3-0": 0.1311, "3-1": 0.064, "3-2": 0.0156, "3-3": 0.0025, "4-0": 0.0817, "4-1": 0.0399, "4-2": 0.0097, "4-3": 0.0016, "5-0": 0.0408, "5-1": 0.0199, "5-2": 0.0049, "5-3": 0.0008, "6-0": 0.0169, "6-1": 0.0083, "6-2": 0.002, "7-0": 0.006, "7-1": 0.0029, "7-2": 0.0007, "8-0": 0.0019, "8-1": 0.0009, "9-0": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.8123, "draw": 0.1343, "away_win": 0.0534 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5726, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4274, "btts_yes": 0.3544, "btts_no": 0.6456, "home_clean_sheet": 0.6139, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0826 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.83, "MCR": 7.14, "ATR": 7.04, "GK": 6.65 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.52, "MCR": 6.61, "ATR": 6.74, "GK": 6.67 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Sweden vs Tunisia. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Daniel Svensson, Viktor Gyökeres", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Lucas Bergvall vs Sebastian Tounekti). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.25, Away: 0.37. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.87, "home_lambda": 2.494, "away_lambda": 0.488 }, "teams": { "Sweden": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Melker Ellborg": { "player_id": 1099795, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 31, "height": 191, "market_value": 2800000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.302, "rating": 6.6504, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 15, "total_long_balls": 21, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 43, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 1.4718, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 15.6997, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "expected_saves": 0.77, "high_pressure_saves": 0.29, "shots_faced": 1.7, "opponent_faced": "Elias Saad, Louey Ben Farhat", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, "Gabriel Gudmundsson": { "player_id": 834308, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 181, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.853, "minutes": 57, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 38, "possession_lost": 8.859, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0417, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Louey Ben Farhat", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0139 } }, "Isak Hien": { "player_id": 1157713, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 191, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.9608, "minutes": 68, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 4.8881, "dispossessed": 1.5633, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2189, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.8129, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 32, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Louey Ben Farhat", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1259 } }, "Victor Lindelöf": { "player_id": 143334, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 187, "market_value": 5800000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.6682, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 54, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 40, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 67, "possession_lost": 5.781, "dispossessed": 0.9916, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0081, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1435, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 82, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "opponent_faced": "Louey Ben Farhat", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0507 } }, "Lucas Bergvall": { "player_id": 1391251, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 186, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 7.1212, "minutes": 32, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.6689, "dispossessed": 1.4441, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.593, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ellyes Skhiri", "opponent_faced": "Ellyes Skhiri", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.047 } }, "Hugo Larsson": { "player_id": 1142211, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 187, "market_value": 34000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.066, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 7.3712, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 45, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 5.8622, "dispossessed": 1.0737, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0737, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.3436, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 52, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.579, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ellyes Skhiri", "opponent_faced": "Ellyes Skhiri", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2733 } }, "Yasin Ayari": { "player_id": 1036269, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 26, "height": 172, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0462, "rating": 6.9505, "minutes": 64, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 5.7568, "dispossessed": 1.4075, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0533, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Anis Ben Slimane", "opponent_faced": "Anis Ben Slimane", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0618 } }, "Daniel Svensson": { "player_id": 1021272, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 183, "market_value": 20000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1238, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 7.1151, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 43, "possession_lost": 9.4266, "dispossessed": 1.2991, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0393, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.7899, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.537, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ismael Gharbi", "opponent_faced": "Ismael Gharbi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3196 } }, "Viktor Gyökeres": { "player_id": 804508, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 187, "market_value": 61000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3423, "goal_rate": 0.2675, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0267, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.325, "minutes": 80, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 8.9732, "dispossessed": 2.2129, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 0.6971, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.397, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ali Abdi, Alaa Ghram", "opponent_faced": "Ali Abdi, Alaa Ghram", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4529 } }, "Anthony Elanga": { "player_id": 979232, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 178, "market_value": 38000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1088, "goal_rate": 0.0966, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 68, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 8.1829, "dispossessed": 2.1619, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5621, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.584, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ali Abdi", "opponent_faced": "Ali Abdi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2687 } }, "Roony Bardghji": { "player_id": 1162107, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 173, "market_value": 15500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2689, "goal_rate": 0.0004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0882, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8073, "minutes": 38, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 6.7367, "dispossessed": 2.5635, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1128, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ali Abdi", "opponent_faced": "Ali Abdi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2243 } } }, "bench_players": { "Viktor Johansson": { "player_id": 561430, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", 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"attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } } }, "bench_players": { "Noureddine Farhati": { "player_id": 1013956, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 188, "market_value": 630000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.0144, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 4, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 } }, "Adem Arous": { "player_id": 2018238, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 188, "market_value": 970000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.555, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.2163, "dispossessed": 0.9812, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.003, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 } }, "Moutaz Neffati": { "player_id": 1391526, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 37, "height": 182, "market_value": 850000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 } }, "Rani Khedira": { "player_id": 149479, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 188, "market_value": 2100000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0085, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 6.364, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.0075, "dispossessed": 0.9812, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0048, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 } }, "Mortadha Ben Ouanes": { "player_id": 919225, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 182, "market_value": 1400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 6.5681, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 2.6087, "dispossessed": 1.4718, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.2395, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0527, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 } }, "Sayfallah Ltaief": { "player_id": 1032926, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 47, "height": 180, "market_value": 1300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0414, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 25, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "key_pass": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 } }, "Khalil Ayari": { "player_id": 1606568, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 174, "market_value": 775000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0414, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 25, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "key_pass": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.49, "expected_assists": 0.74, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 8, "total_passes": 269, "interceptions": 5, "tackles": 7, "avg_rating": 6.61, "possession_estimated_pct": 46.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Yasin Ayari", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Anis Ben Slimane" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "xg_contribution": 0.0498, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Anis Ben Slimane", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yasin Ayari (LWB) is evenly matched against Anis Ben Slimane in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €3M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.050 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Hugo Larsson", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 34000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.746, "defenders": [ "Ellyes Skhiri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.477, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.579, "xg_contribution": 0.1802, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ellyes Skhiri", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.421 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hugo Larsson (CM) is slightly favored against Ellyes Skhiri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 58%. The quality gap is significant (€34M vs €6M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.180 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Lucas Bergvall", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Ellyes Skhiri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.477, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.593, "xg_contribution": 0.1903, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ellyes Skhiri", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.407 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Bergvall (CM) is slightly favored against Ellyes Skhiri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 59%. The quality gap is significant (€41M vs €6M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.190 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Daniel Svensson", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 20000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.631, "defenders": [ "Ismael Gharbi" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.46, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.537, "xg_contribution": 0.1089, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ismael Gharbi", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 4800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.463 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daniel Svensson (RWB) is slightly favored against Ismael Gharbi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€20M vs €5M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.109 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Anthony Elanga", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 38000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.77, "defenders": [ "Ali Abdi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.429, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.584, "xg_contribution": 0.1088, "shots_in_zone": 2.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ali Abdi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.416 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anthony Elanga (SS) is slightly favored against Ali Abdi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 58%. The quality gap is significant (€38M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.109 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Roony Bardghji", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 15500000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.585, "defenders": [ "Ali Abdi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.429, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "xg_contribution": 0.2689, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ali Abdi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.52 } ], "duel_analysis": "Roony Bardghji (SS) is evenly matched against Ali Abdi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.269 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Viktor Gyökeres", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 61000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.855, "defenders": [ "Ali Abdi", "Alaa Ghram" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.422, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.397, "xg_contribution": 0.3423, "shots_in_zone": 2.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ali Abdi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.603 }, { "player": "Alaa Ghram", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.603 } ], "duel_analysis": "Viktor Gyökeres (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Ali Abdi and Alaa Ghram in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 40%. The quality gap is significant (€61M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.342 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ismael Gharbi", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 4800000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.46, "defenders": [ "Daniel Svensson" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.631, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.303, "xg_contribution": 0.0546, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Daniel Svensson", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 20000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.697 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ismael Gharbi (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Daniel Svensson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €20M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.055 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.432, "defenders": [ "Hugo Larsson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.746, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.247, "xg_contribution": 0.0343, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hugo Larsson", "role": "CM", "market_value": 34000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.753 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Hugo Larsson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €34M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.034 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Sebastian Tounekti", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 6500000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.481, "defenders": [ "Hugo Larsson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.746, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.241, "xg_contribution": 0.0215, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hugo Larsson", "role": "CM", "market_value": 34000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.759 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sebastian Tounekti (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Hugo Larsson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €34M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.022 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Anis Ben Slimane", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Yasin Ayari" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.365, "xg_contribution": 0.0522, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.635 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anis Ben Slimane (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Yasin Ayari in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €27M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.052 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Louey Ben Farhat", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 8100000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.5, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "Isak Hien" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0967, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Isak Hien", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Louey Ben Farhat (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Gabriel Gudmundsson and Isak Hien in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.097 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Elias Saad", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.434, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "Isak Hien" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1081, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Isak Hien", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Elias Saad (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Gabriel Gudmundsson and Isak Hien in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.108 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.739, "away_midfield_power": 0.508, "home_creative_power": 0.661, "away_creative_power": 0.389, "home_defensive_power": 0.705, "away_defensive_power": 0.389, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.593, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Lucas Bergvall", "Hugo Larsson", "Yasin Ayari", "Daniel Svensson" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Sebastian Tounekti", "Ellyes Skhiri", "Ismael Gharbi", "Anis Ben Slimane", "Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 53.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 46.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "home_throughball_threat": 2.6, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Lucas Bergvall vs Sebastian Tounekti", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.039, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.959 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.02, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.02, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.494, "away_lambda": 0.488, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Yasin Ayari": { "opponents": [ "Anis Ben Slimane", "Sebastian Tounekti" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hugo Larsson": { "opponents": [ "Ellyes Skhiri", "Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud", "Sebastian Tounekti", "Anis Ben Slimane" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lucas Bergvall": { "opponents": [ "Ellyes Skhiri", "Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Daniel Svensson": { "opponents": [ "Ismael Gharbi" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Anthony Elanga": { "opponents": [ "Ali Abdi" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Roony Bardghji": { "opponents": [ "Ali Abdi" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Viktor Gyökeres": { "opponents": [ "Ali Abdi", "Alaa Ghram" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Gabriel Gudmundsson": { "opponents": [ "Louey Ben Farhat", "Elias Saad" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Isak Hien": { "opponents": [ "Louey Ben Farhat", "Elias Saad" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Melker Ellborg": { "opponents": [ "Louey Ben Farhat", "Elias Saad" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Victor Lindelöf": { "opponents": [ "Louey Ben Farhat" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Anis Ben Slimane": { "opponents": [ "Yasin Ayari", "Hugo Larsson" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ellyes Skhiri": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Larsson", "Lucas Bergvall" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ismael Gharbi": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Svensson" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ali Abdi": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Elanga", "Roony Bardghji", "Viktor Gyökeres" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alaa Ghram": { "opponents": [ "Viktor Gyökeres" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Larsson", "Lucas Bergvall" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sebastian Tounekti": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Larsson", "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Louey Ben Farhat": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "Isak Hien" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Elias Saad": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "Isak Hien" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Aymen Dahmen": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Elanga", "Roony Bardghji" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Yan Valery": { "opponents": [ "Viktor Gyökeres" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Lucas Bergvall vs Sebastian Tounekti). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.25, Away: 0.37. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0223, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0117, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.108, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.062, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0271, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9713, "home_midfield_factor": 1.039, "away_midfield_factor": 0.959, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6819, "away_avg_quality": 0.4483, "avg_quality_gap": 0.2336, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.7948, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.696, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.7232, "elite_count_gap": 2, "combined_quality_gap": 0.476, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3427, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.238, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0393, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0548, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.476, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.188, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9048, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 2.099, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.539, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.0993, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.5388, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 2.494, "final_away_lambda": 0.488 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-01T17:36:27Z" }