{ "match_info": { "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Senegal", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260616", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-0", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1221, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1221 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.1034 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0961 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0896 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0759 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0378, "0-1": 0.0278, "0-2": 0.0102, "0-3": 0.0025, "1-0": 0.0961, "1-1": 0.0706, "1-2": 0.0259, "1-3": 0.0063, "1-4": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.1221, "2-1": 0.0896, "2-2": 0.0329, "2-3": 0.008, "2-4": 0.0015, "3-0": 0.1034, "3-1": 0.0759, "3-2": 0.0279, "3-3": 0.0068, "3-4": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.0657, "4-1": 0.0482, "4-2": 0.0177, "4-3": 0.0043, "4-4": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0334, "5-1": 0.0245, "5-2": 0.009, "5-3": 0.0022, "6-0": 0.0141, "6-1": 0.0104, "6-2": 0.0038, "6-3": 0.0009, "7-0": 0.0051, "7-1": 0.0038, "7-2": 0.0014, "8-0": 0.0016, "8-1": 0.0012 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.7651, "draw": 0.149, "away_win": 0.0859 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6354, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3646, "btts_yes": 0.479, "btts_no": 0.521, "home_clean_sheet": 0.48, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0788 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 93.24, "MCR": 92.2, "ATR": 96.45, "GK": 94.19 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 85.07, "MCR": 85.09, "ATR": 86.6, "GK": 86.99 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for France vs Senegal. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Kylian Mbappé, Michael Olise", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Michael Olise vs Lamine Camara will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.39, Away: 0.59. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.85, "home_lambda": 2.541, "away_lambda": 0.734 }, "teams": { "France": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Kylian Mbappé": { "player_id": 826643, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 191000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.6135, "goal_rate": 0.0304, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0886, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 98.8404, "minutes": 75, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 9.1502, "dispossessed": 2.7999, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 1.0528, "offsides": 3, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 97, "progressive_carries": 5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.339, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Moussa Niakhaté, Kalidou Koulibaly", "opponent_faced": "Moussa Niakhaté, Kalidou Koulibaly", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.424, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0811, "fifa_overall": 91.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083731, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2598, "expected_assists": 0.0681, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5088, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "total_shots": 5, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083649, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1734, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632088, "match_date": "2026-04-15", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "FC Bayern München", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2395, "expected_assists": 0.3297, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632084, "match_date": "2026-04-07", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "FC Bayern München", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2688, "expected_assists": 0.0745, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631365, "match_date": "2026-03-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0631, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4, "combined_rank_score": 10.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 18.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.0545, "sofascore_appearances": 11.0, "fifa_rank": 3.0, "fifa_overall": 91.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.8404, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 1 }, { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 2 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Gutiérrez", "ranking": 3 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 }, { "player_name": "Nico López", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Andy Vidal", "ranking": 8 }, { "player_name": "James Rodríguez", "ranking": 9 } ] } } }, "Désiré Doué": { "player_id": 1154605, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 181, "market_value": 124000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1794, "goal_rate": 0.6195, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0869, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 93.0494, "minutes": 65, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 27, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 49, "possession_lost": 11.6753, "dispossessed": 1.6791, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5373, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 85, "progressive_carries": 3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.557, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "opponent_faced": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3166, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0809, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15889331, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "RC Lens", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "RC Lens", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0921, "expected_assists": 0.073, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 58, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14064510, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "away_team": "Stade Brestois", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "Stade Brestois", "stats": { "minutes": 37, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1889, "expected_assists": 0.0894, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632634, "match_date": "2026-05-06", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "FC Bayern München", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2426, "expected_assists": 0.0403, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632632, "match_date": "2026-04-28", "home_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "FC Bayern München", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 7.6, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.1164, "expected_assists": 0.0469, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632087, "match_date": "2026-04-14", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 52, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632083, "match_date": "2026-04-08", "home_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4401, "expected_assists": 0.1093, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631367, "match_date": "2026-03-17", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0535, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631341, "match_date": "2026-03-11", "home_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0463, "expected_assists": 0.3399, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 105, "combined_rank_score": 101.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 80.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.4923, "sofascore_appearances": 13.0, "fifa_rank": 123.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 8.0494, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Désiré Doué", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Veljko Milosavljević", "ranking": 100 }, { "player_name": "Jaylan Hankins", "ranking": 101 }, { "player_name": "Granit Xhaka", "ranking": 102 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Serna", "ranking": 103 }, { "player_name": "Matías Palavecino", "ranking": 104 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alisson", "ranking": 106 }, { "player_name": "Vitinha", "ranking": 107 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Henrique", "ranking": 108 }, { "player_name": "Gastón Ávila", "ranking": 109 }, { "player_name": "Allan", "ranking": 110 } ] } } }, "Ousmane Dembélé": { "player_id": 818244, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 178, "market_value": 97000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.176, "goal_rate": 0.0037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1322, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 97.4556, "minutes": 75, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 27, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 8.9414, "dispossessed": 1.1177, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, 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15976 } ] } } }, "Ibrahim Mbaye": { "player_id": 1590918, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 49, "height": 175, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0297, "goal_rate": 0.1773, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 73.5111, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.4017, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1059, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 66.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14061910, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Paris FC", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "Paris FC", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0284, "expected_assists": 0.1012, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15889331, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "RC Lens", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "RC Lens", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1987, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 21479, "combined_rank_score": 5396.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 633.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.725, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 10159.0, "fifa_overall": 66.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.5111, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ibrahim Mbaye", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Chan-hee Han", "ranking": 21474 }, { "player_name": "Sem Scheperman", "ranking": 21475 }, { "player_name": "Ricky-Jade Jones", "ranking": 21476 }, { "player_name": "Oğulcan Ülgün", "ranking": 21477 }, { "player_name": "Samuel Portugal", "ranking": 21478 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "José Arnáiz", "ranking": 21480 }, { "player_name": "Noah Allen", "ranking": 21481 }, { "player_name": "Um Won Sang", "ranking": 21482 }, { "player_name": "Keegan Jelacic", "ranking": 21483 }, { "player_name": "Michał Karbownik", "ranking": 21484 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.73, "expected_assists": 0.73, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 425, "interceptions": 5, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 85.53, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Michael Olise", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 144000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Krépin Diatta" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.472, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.716, "xg_contribution": 0.4604, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Krépin Diatta", "role": "RB", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.284 } ], "duel_analysis": "Michael Olise (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Krépin Diatta in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 72%. The quality gap is significant (€144M vs €6M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.460 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Désiré Doué", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 124000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.898, "defenders": [ "El Hadji Malick Diouf" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.557, "xg_contribution": 0.1405, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "role": "LB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.443 } ], "duel_analysis": "Désiré Doué (RW) is slightly favored against El Hadji Malick Diouf in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€124M vs €29M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.141 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ousmane Dembélé", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 97000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.892, "defenders": [ "Pape Gueye" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.477, "xg_contribution": 0.1378, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pape Gueye", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.523 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ousmane Dembélé (CAM) is evenly matched against Pape Gueye in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. The quality gap is significant (€97M vs €39M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.138 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Kylian Mbappé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 191000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Moussa Niakhaté", "Kalidou Koulibaly" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.515, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.339, "xg_contribution": 0.4804, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Moussa Niakhaté", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.661 }, { "player": "Kalidou Koulibaly", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.661 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kylian Mbappé (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Moussa Niakhaté and Kalidou Koulibaly in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€191M vs €10M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.480 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Adrien Rabiot", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 17300000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.604, "defenders": [ "Habib Diarra" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.764, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "xg_contribution": 0.1684, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Habib Diarra", "role": "CM", "market_value": 37000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624 } ], "duel_analysis": "Adrien Rabiot (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Habib Diarra in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€17M vs €37M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.168 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Nicolas Jackson", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Jules Koundé" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.861, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.466, "xg_contribution": 0.1662, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jules Koundé", "role": "RB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.534 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nicolas Jackson (LW) is evenly matched against Jules Koundé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€39M vs €64M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.166 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Sadio Mané", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 5600000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.47, "defenders": [ "Dayot Upamecano" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.863, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.263, "xg_contribution": 0.1037, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dayot Upamecano", "role": "LB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.737 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sadio Mané (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dayot Upamecano in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €65M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.104 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ismaïla Sarr", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 38000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.77, "defenders": [ "Theo Hernández", "William Saliba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.766, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.188, "xg_contribution": 0.1374, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Theo Hernández", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.812 }, { "player": "William Saliba", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.812 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ismaïla Sarr (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Theo Hernández and William Saliba in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. The quality gap is significant (€38M vs €58M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.137 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Pape Gueye", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Adrien Rabiot" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.604, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.481, "xg_contribution": 0.1194, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrien Rabiot", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 17300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.519 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pape Gueye (CDM) is evenly matched against Adrien Rabiot in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. The quality gap is significant (€39M vs €17M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.119 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Habib Diarra", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Adrien Rabiot" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.604, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.474, "xg_contribution": 0.062, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrien Rabiot", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 17300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.526 } ], "duel_analysis": "Habib Diarra (CM) is evenly matched against Adrien Rabiot in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €17M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.062 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.793, "away_midfield_power": 0.703, "home_creative_power": 0.864, "away_creative_power": 0.631, "home_defensive_power": 1.006, "away_defensive_power": 0.57, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.53, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Michael Olise", "Adrien Rabiot", "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Sadio Mané", "Pape Gueye", "Habib Diarra", "Lamine Camara", "Krépin Diatta" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.2, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.8, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.3, "home_throughball_threat": 3.2, "away_throughball_threat": 2.5, "key_personal_duel": "Michael Olise vs Lamine Camara", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.021, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.977 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.541, "away_lambda": 0.734, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Michael Olise": { "opponents": [ "Krépin Diatta", "Lamine Camara" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Désiré Doué": { "opponents": [ "El Hadji Malick Diouf" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ousmane Dembélé": { "opponents": [ "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kylian Mbappé": { "opponents": [ "Moussa Niakhaté", "Kalidou Koulibaly" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Adrien Rabiot": { "opponents": [ "Habib Diarra", "Pape Gueye", "Krépin Diatta" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jules Koundé": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Jackson" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dayot Upamecano": { "opponents": [ "Sadio Mané" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Theo Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Ismaïla Sarr" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "William Saliba": { "opponents": [ "Ismaïla Sarr" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aurélien Tchouaméni": { "opponents": [ "Habib Diarra", "Sadio Mané" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Mike Maignan": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Jackson", "Ismaïla Sarr" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Krépin Diatta": { "opponents": [ "Michael Olise", "Adrien Rabiot" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "El Hadji Malick Diouf": { "opponents": [ "Désiré Doué" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pape Gueye": { "opponents": [ "Ousmane Dembélé", "Adrien Rabiot" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Moussa Niakhaté": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kalidou Koulibaly": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Habib Diarra": { "opponents": [ "Adrien Rabiot", "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nicolas Jackson": { "opponents": [ "Jules Koundé" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Sadio Mané": { "opponents": [ "Dayot Upamecano", "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ismaïla Sarr": { "opponents": [ "Theo Hernández", "William Saliba" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lamine Camara": { "opponents": [ "Michael Olise" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Edouard Mendy": { "opponents": [ "Désiré Doué", "Ousmane Dembélé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Michael Olise vs Lamine Camara will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.39, Away: 0.59. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0061, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9234, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1296, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1498, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9628, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8823, "home_midfield_factor": 1.021, "away_midfield_factor": 0.977, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8323, "away_avg_quality": 0.6552, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1771, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.2291, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.1741, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.1141, "elite_count_gap": 7, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2862, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.6295, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.4006, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1193, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0843, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.5413, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7343, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 2.541, "final_away_lambda": 0.734 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-16T13:39:15Z" }