{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Portugal", "away_team": "DR Congo", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260617", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "5-3-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-0", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1292, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1292 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1205 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0949 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0923 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0886 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0562, "0-1": 0.0413, "0-2": 0.0152, "0-3": 0.0037, "0-4": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.1205, "1-1": 0.0886, "1-2": 0.0325, "1-3": 0.008, "1-4": 0.0015, "2-0": 0.1292, "2-1": 0.0949, "2-2": 0.0349, "2-3": 0.0085, "2-4": 0.0016, "3-0": 0.0923, "3-1": 0.0678, "3-2": 0.0249, "3-3": 0.0061, "3-4": 0.0011, "4-0": 0.0495, "4-1": 0.0364, "4-2": 0.0134, "4-3": 0.0033, "4-4": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0212, "5-1": 0.0156, "5-2": 0.0057, "5-3": 0.0014, "6-0": 0.0076, "6-1": 0.0056, "6-2": 0.002, "6-3": 0.0005, "7-0": 0.0023, "7-1": 0.0017, "7-2": 0.0006, "8-0": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.6986, "draw": 0.1864, "away_win": 0.115 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5491, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4509, "btts_yes": 0.4595, "btts_no": 0.5405, "home_clean_sheet": 0.4795, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1172 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 89.69, "MCR": 92.51, "ATR": 91.95, "GK": 91.95 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 82.89, "MCR": 83.77, "ATR": 86.09, "GK": 86.67 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Portugal vs DR Congo. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Cristiano Ronaldo (2)", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (João Neves vs Noah Sadiki). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.72, Away: 0.47. Home danger zone: LW vs RWB + CB. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.81, "home_lambda": 2.144, "away_lambda": 0.735 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.6986, "draw": 0.1864, "away_win": 0.115 }, "favorite": "Portugal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6986, "fair_spread": 1.409, "fair_total": 2.879, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Portugal", "estimate": 2.144, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "DR Congo", "estimate": 0.735, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5491, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4595, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Portugal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4795, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "DR Congo", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1172, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Gonçalo Inácio (Portugal)", "estimate": 0.7823, "probability": 0.2215, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Yoane Wissa (DR Congo)", "estimate": 0.416, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Bruno Fernandes (Portugal)", "estimate": 0.3746, "probability": 0.4388, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Samuel Moutoussamy (DR Congo)", "estimate": 0.0749, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.879, "expected_total_shots": 20, "expected_total_passes": 980, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.1, "possession_home_pct": 52.9, "possession_away_pct": 47.1, "notes": "Portugal projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Portugal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6986, "script": "Portugal is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.41 goals and fair total 2.88.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; DR Congo must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Portugal lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Portugal chance creation leans on Cristiano Ronaldo against Chancel Mbemba, Arthur Masuaku in LW vs RWB + CB; Portugal projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Portugal: starters carry the main goal usage through Cristiano Ronaldo (2); bench watchlist: Rúben Dias, Rafael Leão, Matheus Nunes.", "DR Congo: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Simon Banza, Matthieu Epolo, Edo Kayembe.", "Assist usage should flow through Bruno Fernandes; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Portugal tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.44 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If DR Congo is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Portugal.", "DR Congo wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Portugal": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Pedro Neto": { "player_id": 879349, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 172, "market_value": 58000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.2161, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0674, "rating": 87.1672, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 26, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 14.3566, "dispossessed": 1.6565, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0883, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 101, "progressive_carries": 5, "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0639, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2138, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1108, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 16087727, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0891, "expected_assists": 0.02, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631367, "match_date": "2026-03-17", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0961, "expected_assists": 0.2844, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631341, "match_date": "2026-03-11", "home_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", 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"ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Soulaïman Allouch", "ranking": 3296 }, { "player_name": "Wonderboy Makhubu", "ranking": 3297 }, { "player_name": "Mihai Butean", "ranking": 3298 }, { "player_name": "Matej Radosta", "ranking": 3299 }, { "player_name": "Lewis Hall", "ranking": 3300 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Joseph Bakasu", "ranking": 3302 }, { "player_name": "Jean Evrard Kouassi", "ranking": 3303 }, { "player_name": "Seiya Baba", "ranking": 3304 }, { "player_name": "Papa Ndiaga Yade", "ranking": 3305 }, { "player_name": "Guillermo Villalobos", "ranking": 3306 } ] } } }, "Cristiano Ronaldo": { "player_id": 750, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 187, "market_value": 10400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5366, "goal_rate": 1.0284, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0438, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 91.9466, "minutes": 87, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 5.7162, "dispossessed": 1.0081, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.8267, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.373, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Chancel Mbemba, Arthur Masuaku", "opponent_faced": "Chancel Mbemba, Arthur Masuaku", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, 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"home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Al-Nassr", "opponent": "Al-Hilal", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3472, "expected_assists": 0.1272, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Saudi Pro League", "league_id": "955", "league_slug": "saudi-pro-league", "league_country": "Saudi Arabia", "season_id": "80443", "season_name": "Saudi Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14773797, "match_date": "2026-05-07", "home_team": "Al-Shabab", "away_team": "Al-Nassr", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Al-Nassr", "opponent": "Al-Shabab", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8211, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Saudi Pro League", "league_id": "955", "league_slug": "saudi-pro-league", "league_country": "Saudi Arabia", "season_id": "80443", "season_name": "Saudi Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 236, "combined_rank_score": 151.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 151.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.9466, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Cristiano Ronaldo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Julio González", "ranking": 231 }, { "player_name": "Juan Pablo Vargas", "ranking": 232 }, { "player_name": "Mateo Kovačić", "ranking": 233 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Sørloth", "ranking": 234 }, { "player_name": "Giovane", "ranking": 235 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Anthony Gordon", "ranking": 237 }, { "player_name": "Paulo Dybala", "ranking": 238 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Mec", "ranking": 239 }, { "player_name": "Claudinho", "ranking": 240 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Ramos Mingo", "ranking": 241 } ] } } }, "Bernardo Silva": { "player_id": 331209, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 173, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0847, "rating": 91.1634, "minutes": 65, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 49, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 33, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 65, "possession_lost": 7.8167, "dispossessed": 3.1267, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 3, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.271, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 104, "progressive_carries": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.238, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Arthur Masuaku, Steve Kapuadi", "opponent_faced": "Arthur Masuaku, Steve Kapuadi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0733, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0443, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1818, "expected_assists": 0.0368, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0787, "expected_assists": 0.0794, 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"ranking": 17797 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jack Elliott", "ranking": 17799 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Passerini", "ranking": 17800 }, { "player_name": "Domagoj Bradarić", "ranking": 17801 }, { "player_name": "Matt Miazga", "ranking": 17802 }, { "player_name": "Riccardo Sottil", "ranking": 17803 } ] } } }, "Théo Bongonda": { "player_id": 344953, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 77, "height": 177, "market_value": 3100000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.024, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "rating": 93.6749, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.98, "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 87.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 797, "combined_rank_score": 150.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 62.0, "fifa_overall": 87.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6749, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Théo Bongonda", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Shea Lacey", "ranking": 792 }, { "player_name": "Ruan Pereira Duarte", "ranking": 793 }, { "player_name": "Karim Dermane", "ranking": 794 }, { "player_name": "Oliver Valaker Edvardsen", "ranking": 795 }, { "player_name": "Cauly", "ranking": 796 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Anis Ben Slimane", "ranking": 798 }, { "player_name": "Gustavo Martins", "ranking": 799 }, { "player_name": "Léo Linck", "ranking": 800 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Moreno", "ranking": 801 }, { "player_name": "Milan Iloski", "ranking": 802 } ] } } }, "Simon Banza": { "player_id": 825945, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 189, "market_value": 10400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.069, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 87.8554, "minutes": 26, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "key_pass": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.575, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.65, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3696, "combined_rank_score": 367.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 563.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8554, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Simon Banza", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rodrigo Pérez", "ranking": 3691 }, { "player_name": "André Gonçalves", "ranking": 3692 }, { "player_name": "Luciano Paredes", "ranking": 3693 }, { "player_name": "Julian Ceballos", "ranking": 3694 }, { "player_name": "Shuhei Tokumoto", "ranking": 3695 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ramazan Orazov", "ranking": 3697 }, { "player_name": "Mohannad Abu Taha", "ranking": 3698 }, { "player_name": "Fahad Talib", "ranking": 3699 }, { "player_name": "Mohammad Ali Hasheesh", "ranking": 3700 }, { "player_name": "Ricardo Phillips", "ranking": 3701 } ] } } }, "Fiston Mayele": { "player_id": 1007556, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 185, "market_value": 1700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1529, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 87.6193, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16150283, "match_date": "2026-05-20", "home_team": "Pyramids FC", "away_team": "Smouha", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Pyramids FC", "opponent": "Smouha", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3649, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Egyptian Premier League", "league_id": "808", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "Egypt", "season_id": "79317", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1146, "combined_rank_score": 361.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 469.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6193, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Fiston Mayele", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Thalente Mbatha", "ranking": 1141 }, { "player_name": "Nkosinathi Sibisi", "ranking": 1142 }, { "player_name": "Valentín Vada", "ranking": 1143 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Esteves", "ranking": 1144 }, { "player_name": "Fábio Martins", "ranking": 1145 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Yael Padilla", "ranking": 1147 }, { "player_name": "Diego Hernández", "ranking": 1148 }, { "player_name": "Facundo Almada", "ranking": 1149 }, { "player_name": "José Alvarado", "ranking": 1150 }, { "player_name": "Jesús Murillo", "ranking": 1151 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.73, "expected_assists": 0.3, "total_shots": 7, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 376, "interceptions": 13, "tackles": 10, "avg_rating": 84.06, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Cristiano Ronaldo", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 10400000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.527, "defenders": [ "Chancel Mbemba", "Arthur Masuaku" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.423, "duel_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.373, "xg_contribution": 0.4027, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Chancel Mbemba", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.627 }, { "player": "Arthur Masuaku", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.627 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cristiano Ronaldo (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Chancel Mbemba and Arthur Masuaku in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 37%. Projected xG contribution: 0.403 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Bruno Fernandes", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Axel Tuanzebe", "Arthur Masuaku" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.44, "duel_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.419, "xg_contribution": 0.0847, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Axel Tuanzebe", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.581 }, { "player": "Arthur Masuaku", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.581 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bruno Fernandes (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Axel Tuanzebe and Arthur Masuaku in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 42%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €3M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.085 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Bernardo Silva", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Arthur Masuaku", "Steve Kapuadi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.428, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.238, "xg_contribution": 0.0464, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Arthur Masuaku", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.762 }, { "player": "Steve Kapuadi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.762 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bernardo Silva (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Arthur Masuaku and Steve Kapuadi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.046 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Vitinha", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 130000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.898, "defenders": [ "Ngal'ayel Mukau" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.57, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.508, "xg_contribution": 0.189, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ngal'ayel Mukau", "role": "CM", "market_value": 14200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.492 } ], "duel_analysis": "Vitinha (CM) is slightly favored against Ngal'ayel Mukau in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€130M vs €14M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.189 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Yoane Wissa", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Gonçalo Inácio", "Tomás Araújo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.765, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2598, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gonçalo Inácio", "role": "CB", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Tomás Araújo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yoane Wissa (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Gonçalo Inácio and Tomás Araújo in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.260 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Axel Tuanzebe", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 4600000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.457, "defenders": [ "Bruno Fernandes", "Nuno Mendes" ], "defender_roles": [ "RW", "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.806, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0488, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "role": "RW", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Nuno Mendes", "role": "RB", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Axel Tuanzebe (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Bruno Fernandes and Nuno Mendes in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.049 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Chancel Mbemba", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 1800000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.422, "defenders": [ "Cristiano Ronaldo", "João Cancelo" ], "defender_roles": [ "LW", "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.517, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.188, "xg_contribution": 0.0193, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cristiano Ronaldo", "role": "LW", "market_value": 10400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.812 }, { "player": "João Cancelo", "role": "LB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.812 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chancel Mbemba (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Cristiano Ronaldo and João Cancelo in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Projected xG contribution: 0.019 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Samuel Moutoussamy", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.42, "defenders": [ "Vitinha" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.898, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.209, "xg_contribution": 0.0346, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 1, "dribbles_successful": 0.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitinha", "role": "CM", "market_value": 130000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.791 } ], "duel_analysis": "Samuel Moutoussamy (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Vitinha in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €130M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ngal'ayel Mukau", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 14200000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.57, "defenders": [ "Vitinha" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.898, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.332, "xg_contribution": 0.1058, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitinha", "role": "CM", "market_value": 130000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.668 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ngal'ayel Mukau (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Vitinha in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€14M vs €130M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.106 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.854, "away_midfield_power": 0.585, "home_creative_power": 0.86, "away_creative_power": 0.503, "home_defensive_power": 0.845, "away_defensive_power": 0.554, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.593, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Pedro Neto", "Bernardo Silva", "Vitinha", "João Neves", "Bruno Fernandes" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Ngal'ayel Mukau", "Samuel Moutoussamy", "Noah Sadiki" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "home_throughball_threat": 3.2, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "João Neves vs Noah Sadiki", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.036, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.962 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "5-3-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.144, "away_lambda": 0.735, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "LW vs RWB + CB", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Cristiano Ronaldo": { "opponents": [ "Chancel Mbemba", "Arthur Masuaku" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Bruno Fernandes": { "opponents": [ "Axel Tuanzebe", "Arthur Masuaku", "Samuel Moutoussamy" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bernardo Silva": { "opponents": [ "Arthur Masuaku", "Steve Kapuadi", "Ngal'ayel Mukau" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Vitinha": { "opponents": [ "Ngal'ayel Mukau", "Samuel Moutoussamy" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gonçalo Inácio": { "opponents": [ "Yoane Wissa" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tomás Araújo": { "opponents": [ "Yoane Wissa" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nuno Mendes": { "opponents": [ "Axel Tuanzebe" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "João Cancelo": { "opponents": [ "Chancel Mbemba" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "João Neves": { "opponents": [ "Samuel Moutoussamy" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Pedro Neto": { "opponents": [ "Noah Sadiki" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Diogo Costa": { "opponents": [ "Cédric Bakambu", "Yoane Wissa" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Chancel Mbemba": { "opponents": [ "Cristiano Ronaldo", "João Cancelo" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Arthur Masuaku": { "opponents": [ "Cristiano Ronaldo", "Bruno Fernandes", "Bernardo Silva" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Axel Tuanzebe": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Fernandes", "Nuno Mendes" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Steve Kapuadi": { "opponents": [ "Bernardo Silva" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ngal'ayel Mukau": { "opponents": [ "Vitinha", "Bernardo Silva" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yoane Wissa": { "opponents": [ "Gonçalo Inácio", "Tomás Araújo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Samuel Moutoussamy": { "opponents": [ "Vitinha", "João Neves", "Bruno Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Noah Sadiki": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Neto" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Lionel Mpasi Nzau": { "opponents": [ "Cristiano Ronaldo", "João Neves" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Aaron Wan-Bissaka": { "opponents": [ "Cristiano Ronaldo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Cédric Bakambu": { "opponents": [ "Nuno Mendes", "Gonçalo Inácio" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (João Neves vs Noah Sadiki). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.72, Away: 0.47. Home danger zone: LW vs RWB + CB. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0241, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8657, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1075, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.081, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9882, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8984, "home_midfield_factor": 1.036, "away_midfield_factor": 0.962, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7461, "away_avg_quality": 0.5134, "avg_quality_gap": 0.2326, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.6271, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.5083, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.5488, "elite_count_gap": 5, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3424, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.7532, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.4793, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0504, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1025, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.3424, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0906, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9758, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.966, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.753, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.9664, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7525, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 2.144, "final_away_lambda": 0.735 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-17T13:31:31Z" }