{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Ghana", "away_team": "Panama", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260617", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1107, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1107 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1048 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0981 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0935 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0618 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0594, "0-1": 0.0618, "0-2": 0.0326, "0-3": 0.0114, "0-4": 0.003, "0-5": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.1048, "1-1": 0.1107, "1-2": 0.058, "1-3": 0.0203, "1-4": 0.0053, "1-5": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.0935, "2-1": 0.0981, "2-2": 0.0515, "2-3": 0.018, "2-4": 0.0047, "2-5": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0554, "3-1": 0.0582, "3-2": 0.0305, "3-3": 0.0107, "3-4": 0.0028, "3-5": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0246, "4-1": 0.0259, "4-2": 0.0136, "4-3": 0.0048, "4-4": 0.0012, "5-0": 0.0088, "5-1": 0.0092, "5-2": 0.0048, "5-3": 0.0017, "6-0": 0.0026, "6-1": 0.0027, "6-2": 0.0014, "6-3": 0.0005, "7-0": 0.0007, "7-1": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.544, "draw": 0.2337, "away_win": 0.2223 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5372, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4628, "btts_yes": 0.5405, "btts_no": 0.4595, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3499, "away_clean_sheet": 0.169 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 83.41, "MCR": 85.43, "ATR": 79.67, "GK": 79.64 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 83.18, "MCR": 80.12, "ATR": 74.72, "GK": 76.4 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Ghana vs Panama. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Iñaki Williams, Yoel Bárcenas", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Antoine Semenyo vs Ismael Díaz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: LW vs CB. Away danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run." }, "confidence": 0.77, "home_lambda": 1.778, "away_lambda": 1.05 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.544, "draw": 0.2337, "away_win": 0.2223 }, "favorite": "Ghana", "favorite_win_probability": 0.544, "fair_spread": 0.728, "fair_total": 2.828, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Ghana", "estimate": 1.778, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Panama", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5372, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5405, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Ghana", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3499, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Panama", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.169, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Iñaki Williams (Ghana)", "estimate": 0.7639, "probability": 0.4108, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ismael Díaz (Panama)", "estimate": 0.2113, "probability": 0.1161, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Iñaki Williams (Ghana)", "estimate": 0.2624, "probability": 0.2874, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Éric Davis (Panama)", "estimate": 0.1276, "probability": 0.1128, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.828, "expected_total_shots": 21, "expected_total_passes": 767, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.2, "possession_home_pct": 52.7, "possession_away_pct": 47.3, "notes": "Ghana projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Ghana", "favorite_win_probability": 0.544, "script": "Ghana is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.73 goals and fair total 2.83.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Panama must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Ghana lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Ghana chance creation leans on Iñaki Williams against José Córdoba in LW vs CB; Ghana projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Ghana: starters carry the main goal usage through Iñaki Williams; bench watchlist: Kamaldeen Sulemana, Brandon Thomas-Asante, Christopher Baah.", "Panama: starters carry the main goal usage through Yoel Bárcenas; bench watchlist: Adalberto Carrasquilla, Eduardo Guerrero, César Blackman.", "Assist usage should flow through Iñaki Williams, Yoel Bárcenas; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Ghana tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.41 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Panama is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Ghana.", "Panama wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Ghana": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Iñaki Williams": { "player_id": 783374, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 186, "market_value": 7300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.2624, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.7639, "rating": 90.0457, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 33, "possession_lost": 12.4634, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 4, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.9971, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.8675, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 43, "progressive_carries": 3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.426, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "José Córdoba", "opponent_faced": "José Córdoba", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4108, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.2874, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083731, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 2, "expected_assists": 0.5147, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.1391, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "total_shots": 7, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 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80, "rating": 6.6, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.08, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Primera División, Clausura", "league_id": "11542", "league_slug": "primera-division-clausura", "league_country": "Costa Rica", "season_id": "87226", "season_name": "Primera Division, Clausura 2026", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 16167662, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Deportivo Saprissa", "away_team": "Herediano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Saprissa", "opponent": "Herediano", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.04, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, 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"Primera Division, Clausura 2026", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15188475, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Puntarenas FC", "away_team": "Deportivo Saprissa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Saprissa", "opponent": "Puntarenas FC", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.49, "expected_assists": 0.11, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Primera División, Clausura", "league_id": "11542", "league_slug": "primera-division-clausura", "league_country": "Costa Rica", "season_id": "87226", "season_name": "Primera Division, Clausura 2026", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15188470, "match_date": "2026-04-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Saprissa", "away_team": "Guadalupe FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Saprissa", "opponent": "Guadalupe FC", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.56, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Primera División, Clausura", "league_id": "11542", "league_slug": "primera-division-clausura", "league_country": "Costa Rica", "season_id": "87226", "season_name": "Primera Division, Clausura 2026", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15188465, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "LD Alajuelense", "away_team": "Deportivo Saprissa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Saprissa", "opponent": "LD Alajuelense", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.8, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.04, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Primera División, Clausura", "league_id": "11542", "league_slug": "primera-division-clausura", "league_country": "Costa Rica", "season_id": "87226", "season_name": "Primera Division, Clausura 2026", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15188458, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Deportivo Saprissa", "away_team": "Municipal Liberia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Saprissa", "opponent": "Municipal Liberia", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.92, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Primera División, Clausura", "league_id": "11542", "league_slug": "primera-division-clausura", "league_country": "Costa Rica", "season_id": "87226", "season_name": "Primera Division, Clausura 2026", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15706142, "match_date": "2026-04-05", "home_team": "Deportivo Saprissa", "away_team": "Municipal Pérez Zeledón", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Saprissa", "opponent": "Municipal Pérez Zeledón", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.7, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.08, "expected_assists": 0.12, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Primera División, Clausura", "league_id": "11542", "league_slug": "primera-division-clausura", "league_country": "Costa Rica", "season_id": "87226", "season_name": "Primera Division, Clausura 2026", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1636, "combined_rank_score": 196.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 132.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.0638, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tomás Rodríguez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mirko Milikić", "ranking": 1631 }, { "player_name": "Hossam Essadak", "ranking": 1632 }, { "player_name": "Osinachi Ebere", "ranking": 1633 }, { "player_name": "Jádson", "ranking": 1634 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Paraco", "ranking": 1635 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Volodymyr Vilivald", "ranking": 1637 }, { "player_name": "Ahmed Hegazy", "ranking": 1638 }, { "player_name": "August De Wannemacker", "ranking": 1639 }, { "player_name": "Joedrick Pupe", "ranking": 1640 }, { "player_name": "Luis Díaz", "ranking": 1641 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.05, "expected_assists": 0.66, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 405, "interceptions": 5, "tackles": 9, "avg_rating": 80.68, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Iñaki Williams", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "José Córdoba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.458, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.426, "xg_contribution": 0.3098, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José Córdoba", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.574 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iñaki Williams (LW) is evenly matched against José Córdoba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.310 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Yoel Bárcenas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.409, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.544, "xg_contribution": 0.0615, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yoel Bárcenas", "role": "CM", "market_value": 705000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.456 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku (CAM) is slightly favored against Yoel Bárcenas in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.061 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Antoine Semenyo", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 85000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.886, "defenders": [ "José Córdoba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.458, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.6, "xg_contribution": 0.1673, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José Córdoba", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.4 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antoine Semenyo (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against José Córdoba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€85M vs €5M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.167 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Jordan Ayew", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1100000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.414, "defenders": [ "José Córdoba", "Edgardo Fariña" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.434, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0949, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José Córdoba", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Edgardo Fariña", "role": "CB", "market_value": 815000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jordan Ayew (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against José Córdoba and Edgardo Fariña in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.095 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Éric Davis", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 49000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.401, "defenders": [ "Jonas Adjei Adjetey", "Jerome Opoku" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.473, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0253, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jonas Adjei Adjetey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jerome Opoku", "role": "CB", "market_value": 5400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Éric Davis (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jonas Adjei Adjetey and Jerome Opoku in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.025 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "José Fajardo", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 525000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.407, "defenders": [ "Kwasi Sibo", "Jonas Adjei Adjetey" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.449, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "xg_contribution": 0.0482, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kwasi Sibo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769 }, { "player": "Jonas Adjei Adjetey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769 } ], "duel_analysis": "José Fajardo (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Kwasi Sibo and Jonas Adjei Adjetey in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Projected xG contribution: 0.048 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ismael Díaz", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.421, "defenders": [ "Gideon Mensah" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.446, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.405, "xg_contribution": 0.1629, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gideon Mensah", "role": "RB", "market_value": 3700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.595 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ismael Díaz (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Gideon Mensah in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.163 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Aníbal Godoy", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 97000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.401, "defenders": [ "Alidu Seidu" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.478, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.401, "xg_contribution": 0.0476, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alidu Seidu", "role": "LB", "market_value": 6300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.599 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aníbal Godoy (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Alidu Seidu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.048 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Yoel Bárcenas", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 705000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.409, "defenders": [ "Kwasi Sibo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.419, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.418, "xg_contribution": 0.055, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kwasi Sibo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.582 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yoel Bárcenas (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Kwasi Sibo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.055 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.628, "away_midfield_power": 0.435, "home_creative_power": 0.554, "away_creative_power": 0.349, "home_defensive_power": 0.544, "away_defensive_power": 0.379, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.591, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Iñaki Williams", "Antoine Semenyo", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "Kwasi Sibo", "Elisha Owusu" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Ismael Díaz", "Yoel Bárcenas", "Aníbal Godoy", "Carlos Harvey" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.6, "home_throughball_threat": 2.3, "away_throughball_threat": 1.6, "key_personal_duel": "Antoine Semenyo vs Ismael Díaz", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.033, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.965 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.778, "away_lambda": 1.05, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "LW vs CB", "RW vs CB" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Iñaki Williams": { "opponents": [ "José Córdoba", "Aníbal Godoy" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku": { "opponents": [ "Yoel Bárcenas" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Antoine Semenyo": { "opponents": [ "José Córdoba", "Yoel Bárcenas" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jordan Ayew": { "opponents": [ "José Córdoba", "Edgardo Fariña" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jonas Adjei Adjetey": { "opponents": [ "Éric Davis", "José Fajardo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jerome Opoku": { "opponents": [ "Éric Davis" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kwasi Sibo": { "opponents": [ "José Fajardo", "Yoel Bárcenas", "Carlos Harvey" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gideon Mensah": { "opponents": [ "Ismael Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alidu Seidu": { "opponents": [ "Aníbal Godoy" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Elisha Owusu": { "opponents": [ "Ismael Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Lawrence Ati Zigi": { "opponents": [ "José Fajardo", "Carlos Harvey" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "José Córdoba": { "opponents": [ "Iñaki Williams", "Antoine Semenyo", "Jordan Ayew" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Yoel Bárcenas": { "opponents": [ "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "Kwasi Sibo", "Antoine Semenyo" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Edgardo Fariña": { "opponents": [ "Jordan Ayew" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Éric Davis": { "opponents": [ "Jonas Adjei Adjetey", "Jerome Opoku" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "José Fajardo": { "opponents": [ "Kwasi Sibo", "Jonas Adjei Adjetey" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ismael Díaz": { "opponents": [ "Gideon Mensah", "Elisha Owusu" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aníbal Godoy": { "opponents": [ "Alidu Seidu", "Iñaki Williams" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carlos Harvey": { "opponents": [ "Kwasi Sibo" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Orlando Mosquera": { "opponents": [ "Jordan Ayew", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Amir Murillo": { "opponents": [ "Jordan Ayew" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Fidel Escobar": { "opponents": [ "Jordan Ayew" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Antoine Semenyo vs Ismael Díaz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: LW vs CB. Away danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0223, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0178, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1143, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.097, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0034, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.001, "home_midfield_factor": 1.033, "away_midfield_factor": 0.965, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5174, "away_avg_quality": 0.4201, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0972, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.7585, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.7132, "attack_value_gap_log": 2.8293, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2555, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.562, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.3576, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0699, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0912, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.778, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.741, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.7779, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7412, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.778, "final_away_lambda": 1.05 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-17T13:31:06Z" }