{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Uzbekistan", "away_team": "Colombia", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260618", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-5-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1379, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1379 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.1238 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1073 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0953 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0782 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0782, "0-1": 0.1379, "0-2": 0.1238, "0-3": 0.0737, "0-4": 0.0329, "0-5": 0.0118, "0-6": 0.0035, "0-7": 0.0009, "1-0": 0.0591, "1-1": 0.1073, "1-2": 0.0953, "1-3": 0.0568, "1-4": 0.0254, "1-5": 0.0091, "1-6": 0.0027, "1-7": 0.0007, "2-0": 0.023, "2-1": 0.0411, "2-2": 0.0367, "2-3": 0.0219, "2-4": 0.0098, "2-5": 0.0035, "2-6": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0059, "3-1": 0.0105, "3-2": 0.0094, "3-3": 0.0056, "3-4": 0.0025, "3-5": 0.0009, "4-0": 0.0011, "4-1": 0.002, "4-2": 0.0018, "4-3": 0.0011 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.1562, "draw": 0.2283, "away_win": 0.6155 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4707, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5293, "btts_yes": 0.4477, "btts_no": 0.5523, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1675, "away_clean_sheet": 0.463 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.04, "MCR": 6.68, "ATR": 7.14, "GK": 6.92 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.99, "MCR": 7.32, "ATR": 7.29, "GK": 6.88 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Uzbekistan vs Colombia. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Luis Javier Suárez", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Abbosbek Fayzullaev vs Luis Díaz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.68, Away: 0.87. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.77, "home_lambda": 0.77, "away_lambda": 1.787 }, "teams": { "Uzbekistan": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Abduvokhid Nematov": { "player_id": 1000465, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 35, "height": 182, "market_value": 1400000, "stats": { "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.118, "rating": 6.9171, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 21, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 33, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 7.4181, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "expected_saves": 1.83, "high_pressure_saves": 0.7, "shots_faced": 3.9, "opponent_faced": "Luis Javier Suárez, Luis Díaz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, "Abdukodir Khusanov": { "player_id": 1194333, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 45, "height": 186, "market_value": 33000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.5648, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 68, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 36, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34, "total_opp_half_passes": 37, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 86, "possession_lost": 6.6122, "dispossessed": 1.6075, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0643, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 29, "total_progression": 97, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.76, "opponent_faced": "Luis Javier Suárez", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, "Husniddin Aliqulov": { "player_id": 1121174, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 186, "market_value": 1500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 32, "goal_rate": 0.0397, "goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0353, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.76, "opponent_faced": "Luis Javier Suárez", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, "Khozhiakbar Alizhonov": { "player_id": 888187, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 180, "market_value": 1300000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.9906, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 44, "duels_won": 8, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 80, "possession_lost": 16.2884, "dispossessed": 1.6387, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 4, "ball_recovery": 8, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0602, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0536, "expected_assists": 0.1766, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 2, "opponent_faced": "Luis Javier Suárez", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, "Abbosbek Fayzullaev": { "player_id": 1118429, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 172, "market_value": 6500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.2346, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.078, "rating": 6.7773, "minutes": 62, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 5.965, "dispossessed": 0.9942, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.6368, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.845, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, 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"opponent_faced": "Luis Díaz, Richard Ríos, Daniel Muñoz", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, "Eldor Shomurodov": { "player_id": 791355, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 190, "market_value": 7400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2933, "goal_rate": 0.4703, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2713, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 7.6171, "minutes": 90, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 17, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 15.4603, "dispossessed": 1.4962, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 3, 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2, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 90, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "key_pass": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "fouls_drawn": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jhon Lucumí, Davinson Sánchez", "opponent_faced": "Jhon Lucumí, Davinson Sánchez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } } }, "bench_players": { "Utkir Yusupov": { "player_id": 791592, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 185, "market_value": 540000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.0166, "rating": 6.6516, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 1, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, 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"aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.6038, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.5884, "dispossessed": 1.0043, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0093, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.313, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.88 } }, "Carlos Cuesta": { "player_id": 839095, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 179, "market_value": 7400000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.7027, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 0.5531, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0153, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.308, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.79 } }, "Yáser Asprilla": { "player_id": 1092769, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 176, "market_value": 15000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0106, "rating": 6.8833, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.1534, "dispossessed": 1.0238, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 11, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.524, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.53 } }, "Andrés Gómez": { "player_id": 1160386, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 172, "market_value": 7800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0531, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0786, "rating": 6.5224, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 3.9432, "dispossessed": 2.6171, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.2465, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0986, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.509, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.21 } }, "Jhon Durán": { "player_id": 974577, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 185, "market_value": 35000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0019, "goal_rate": 0.0005, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.0627, "minutes": 27, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 2.1154, "dispossessed": 1.6134, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 5, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.615, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.54 } }, "Cucho Hernández": { "player_id": 887055, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 175, "market_value": 16500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0639, "goal_rate": 0.0041, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.9165, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 3.0983, "dispossessed": 2.7772, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2192, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92 } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.79, "expected_assists": 1.33, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 10, "total_passes": 383, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 19, "avg_rating": 7.19, "possession_estimated_pct": 53.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Oston Urunov", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.426, "defenders": [ "Jorge Carrascal" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.525, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.384, "xg_contribution": 0.0928, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jorge Carrascal", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 10200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.616 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oston Urunov (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Jorge Carrascal in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.093 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Abbosbek Fayzullaev", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 6500000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.481, "defenders": [ "Daniel Muñoz" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.702, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.306, "xg_contribution": 0.0648, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Daniel Muñoz", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.694 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abbosbek Fayzullaev (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Daniel Muñoz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €28M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.065 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Azizjon Ganiev", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.426, "defenders": [ "Daniel Muñoz" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.702, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.314, "xg_contribution": 0.0413, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Daniel Muñoz", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.686 } ], "duel_analysis": "Azizjon Ganiev (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Daniel Muñoz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €28M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Otabek Shukurov", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.419, "defenders": [ "Jhon Arias" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.591, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.39, "xg_contribution": 0.0547, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jhon Arias", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 16100000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.61 } ], "duel_analysis": "Otabek Shukurov (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Jhon Arias in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.055 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Eldor Shomurodov", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7400000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.491, "defenders": [ "Jhon Lucumí", "Davinson Sánchez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.651, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2933, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jhon Lucumí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Davinson Sánchez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 18500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Eldor Shomurodov (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jhon Lucumí and Davinson Sánchez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.293 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Igor Sergeev", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1300000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.416, "defenders": [ "Jhon Lucumí", "Davinson Sánchez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.651, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1286, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jhon Lucumí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Davinson Sánchez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 18500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Igor Sergeev (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jhon Lucumí and Davinson Sánchez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €22M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.129 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jhon Arias", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 16100000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.591, "defenders": [ "Otabek Shukurov" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.419, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.45, "xg_contribution": 0.062, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Otabek Shukurov", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.55 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jhon Arias (LWB) is evenly matched against Otabek Shukurov in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.062 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Luis Díaz", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 76000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.878, "defenders": [ "Akmal Mozgovoy" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.417, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.649, "xg_contribution": 0.1846, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Akmal Mozgovoy", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.351 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luis Díaz (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Akmal Mozgovoy in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 65%. The quality gap is significant (€76M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.185 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Richard Ríos", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Akmal Mozgovoy" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.417, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.583, "xg_contribution": 0.1336, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Akmal Mozgovoy", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.417 } ], "duel_analysis": "Richard Ríos (CM) is slightly favored against Akmal Mozgovoy in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 58%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.134 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Jorge Carrascal", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 10200000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.525, "defenders": [ "Oston Urunov" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.426, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.456, "xg_contribution": 0.064, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Oston Urunov", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.544 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jorge Carrascal (RWB) is evenly matched against Oston Urunov in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.064 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Luis Javier Suárez", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 25000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.677, "defenders": [ "Abdukodir Khusanov", "Husniddin Aliqulov" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.579, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.24, "xg_contribution": 0.319, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Abdukodir Khusanov", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.76 }, { "player": "Husniddin Aliqulov", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.76 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luis Javier Suárez (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Abdukodir Khusanov and Husniddin Aliqulov in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. Projected xG contribution: 0.319 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jhon Córdoba", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 9500000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.517, "defenders": [ "Abdukodir Khusanov", "Husniddin Aliqulov" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.579, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1095, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Abdukodir Khusanov", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Husniddin Aliqulov", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jhon Córdoba (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Abdukodir Khusanov and Husniddin Aliqulov in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.109 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.484, "away_midfield_power": 0.723, "home_creative_power": 0.408, "away_creative_power": 0.671, "home_defensive_power": 0.39, "away_defensive_power": 0.626, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.401, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Abbosbek Fayzullaev", "Azizjon Ganiev", "Oston Urunov", "Otabek Shukurov", "Akmal Mozgovoy" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Luis Díaz", "Daniel Muñoz", "Richard Ríos", "Jhon Arias", "Jorge Carrascal" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 46.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 53.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.5, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.6, "key_personal_duel": "Abbosbek Fayzullaev vs Luis Díaz", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.963, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.04 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.77, "away_lambda": 1.787, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Oston Urunov": { "opponents": [ "Jorge Carrascal", "Jhon Arias" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Abbosbek Fayzullaev": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Muñoz", "Luis Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Azizjon Ganiev": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Muñoz", "Richard Ríos" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Otabek Shukurov": { "opponents": [ "Jhon Arias", "Jorge Carrascal" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Eldor Shomurodov": { "opponents": [ "Jhon Lucumí", "Davinson Sánchez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Igor Sergeev": { "opponents": [ "Jhon Lucumí", "Davinson Sánchez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Akmal Mozgovoy": { "opponents": [ "Luis Díaz", "Richard Ríos", "Daniel Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Abdukodir Khusanov": { "opponents": [ "Luis Javier Suárez", "Jhon Córdoba" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Husniddin Aliqulov": { "opponents": [ "Luis Javier Suárez", "Jhon Córdoba" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Abduvokhid Nematov": { "opponents": [ "Luis Javier Suárez", "Jhon Córdoba" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Khozhiakbar Alizhonov": { "opponents": [ "Luis Javier Suárez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jorge Carrascal": { "opponents": [ "Oston Urunov", "Otabek Shukurov" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Daniel Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Abbosbek Fayzullaev", "Azizjon Ganiev", "Akmal Mozgovoy" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jhon Arias": { "opponents": [ "Otabek Shukurov", "Oston Urunov" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jhon Lucumí": { "opponents": [ "Eldor Shomurodov", "Igor Sergeev" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Davinson Sánchez": { "opponents": [ "Eldor Shomurodov", "Igor Sergeev" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luis Díaz": { "opponents": [ "Akmal Mozgovoy", "Abbosbek Fayzullaev" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Richard Ríos": { "opponents": [ "Akmal Mozgovoy", "Azizjon Ganiev" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Luis Javier Suárez": { "opponents": [ "Abdukodir Khusanov", "Husniddin Aliqulov" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jhon Córdoba": { "opponents": [ "Abdukodir Khusanov", "Husniddin Aliqulov" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Álvaro Montero": { "opponents": [ "Eldor Shomurodov", "Igor Sergeev" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Yerson Mosquera": { "opponents": [ "Eldor Shomurodov" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Abbosbek Fayzullaev vs Luis Díaz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.68, Away: 0.87. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0122, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0188, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.114, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1285, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9493, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9816, "home_midfield_factor": 0.963, "away_midfield_factor": 1.04, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4651, "away_avg_quality": 0.6417, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1767, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.3254, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.1292, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.8172, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3647, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2626, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1823, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0932, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.103, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.3647, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1324, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9271, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.831, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.578, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.8312, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.578, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 0.77, "final_away_lambda": 1.787 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-01T17:40:52Z" }