{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Mexico", "away_team": "South Korea", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260618", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-1-4-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-2", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0943, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0943 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0908 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0692 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.066 }, { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.0655 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0322, "0-1": 0.066, "0-2": 0.0692, "0-3": 0.0481, "0-4": 0.0251, "0-5": 0.0105, "0-6": 0.0036, "0-7": 0.0011, "1-0": 0.043, "1-1": 0.0908, "1-2": 0.0943, "1-3": 0.0655, "1-4": 0.0342, "1-5": 0.0142, "1-6": 0.0049, "1-7": 0.0015, "2-0": 0.0295, "2-1": 0.0616, "2-2": 0.0642, "2-3": 0.0446, "2-4": 0.0233, "2-5": 0.0097, "2-6": 0.0034, "2-7": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0134, "3-1": 0.028, "3-2": 0.0291, "3-3": 0.0203, "3-4": 0.0106, "3-5": 0.0044, "3-6": 0.0015, "4-0": 0.0046, "4-1": 0.0095, "4-2": 0.0099, "4-3": 0.0069, "4-4": 0.0036, "4-5": 0.0015, "4-6": 0.0005, "5-0": 0.0012, "5-1": 0.0026, "5-2": 0.0027, "5-3": 0.0019, "5-4": 0.001, "6-1": 0.0006, "6-2": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2477, "draw": 0.2115, "away_win": 0.5408 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6692, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3308, "btts_yes": 0.6517, "btts_no": 0.3483, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1243, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2561 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 86.91, "MCR": 87.2, "ATR": 85.75, "GK": 90.24 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 85.89, "MCR": 81.97, "ATR": 85.13, "GK": 89.3 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Mexico vs South Korea. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 7 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Raúl Jiménez, Hyeon-gyu Oh, Son Heung-min", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-1-4-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Edson Álvarez vs Kang-in Lee will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.07, Away: 2.25. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat." }, "confidence": 0.79, "home_lambda": 1.362, "away_lambda": 2.085 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2477, "draw": 0.2115, "away_win": 0.5408 }, "favorite": "South Korea", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5408, "fair_spread": -0.723, "fair_total": 3.447, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Mexico", "estimate": 1.362, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "South Korea", "estimate": 2.085, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6692, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6517, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Mexico", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1243, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "South Korea", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2561, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Raúl Jiménez (Mexico)", "estimate": 0.5974, "probability": 0.3762, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Son Heung-min (South Korea)", "estimate": 1.0359, "probability": 0.5515, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Roberto Alvarado (Mexico)", "estimate": 0.5094, "probability": 0.3456, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Hwang In-beom (South Korea)", "estimate": 0.4946, "probability": 0.2767, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.447, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 926, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.0, "possession_home_pct": 51.0, "possession_away_pct": 49.0, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "South Korea", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5408, "script": "South Korea is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.72 goals and fair total 3.45.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Mexico must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A South Korea lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "South Korea chance creation leans on Son Heung-min against Erik Lira in Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Mexico: starters carry the main goal usage through Raúl Jiménez; bench watchlist: Santiago Giménez, Armando González, Brian Gutiérrez.", "South Korea: starters carry the main goal usage through Hyeon-gyu Oh, Son Heung-min; bench watchlist: Jens Castrop, Hwang Hee-chan, Yang Hyun-Jun.", "Assist usage should flow through Roberto Alvarado, Hwang In-beom; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: South Korea tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.72 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Mexico is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for South Korea.", "Mexico wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Mexico": { "formation": "4-1-4-1", "players": { "Raúl Rangel": { "player_id": 990408, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 190, "market_value": 6300000, "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.1187, "rating": 90.2447, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 26, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 36, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 3.9737, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.004, "total_shots": 0, "expected_saves": 4.73, "high_pressure_saves": 1.8, "shots_faced": 10.1, "opponent_faced": "Son Heung-min, Hyeon-gyu Oh", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186710, "match_date": "2026-06-11", "home_team": "Mexico", "away_team": "South Africa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Mexico", "opponent": "South Africa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 26, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.1287 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 485, "combined_rank_score": 227.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 242.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.2447, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Raúl Rangel", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Morten Hjulmand", "ranking": 480 }, { "player_name": "Lee Jong-Eon", "ranking": 481 }, { "player_name": "Oussama Idrissi", "ranking": 482 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Bontempo", "ranking": 483 }, { "player_name": "Michel Diaz", "ranking": 484 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Paulo Henrique", "ranking": 486 }, { "player_name": "Sulemana", "ranking": 487 }, { "player_name": "Elías Montiel", "ranking": 488 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Martins", "ranking": 489 }, { "player_name": "Renato Nhaga", "ranking": 490 } ] } } }, "Raúl Jiménez": { "player_id": 192442, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 189, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5974, "goal_rate": 0.7826, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 84.3801, "minutes": 65, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 5.8918, "dispossessed": 0.982, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 1.1293, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.355, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kang-in Lee", "opponent_faced": "Kang-in Lee", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3762, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.071, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186710, "match_date": "2026-06-11", "home_team": "Mexico", "away_team": "South Africa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Mexico", "opponent": "South Africa", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8443, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1101, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 15408, "combined_rank_score": 852.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 1466.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.3801, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Raúl Jiménez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Dramane Salou", "ranking": 15403 }, { "player_name": "Kostas Tsimikas", "ranking": 15404 }, { "player_name": "Joe Willock", "ranking": 15405 }, { "player_name": "Panagiotis Retsos", "ranking": 15406 }, { "player_name": "Seung-ik Roh", "ranking": 15407 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mats Wieffer", "ranking": 15409 }, { "player_name": "Timo Werner", "ranking": 15410 }, { "player_name": "Noah Maieroni", "ranking": 15411 }, { "player_name": "Will Hughes", "ranking": 15412 }, { "player_name": "Thiago Pitarch", "ranking": 15413 } ] } } }, "Julián Quiñones": { "player_id": 843114, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 180, "market_value": 12900000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2971, "goal_rate": 0.7092, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1251, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 88.0992, "minutes": 81, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 7, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 11.947, "dispossessed": 2.0335, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.7524, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 30, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.186, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gi-Hyuk Lee, Kim Min-jae", "opponent_faced": "Gi-Hyuk Lee, Kim Min-jae", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2984, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1245, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186710, "match_date": "2026-06-11", "home_team": "Mexico", "away_team": "South Africa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Mexico", "opponent": "South Africa", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 8.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3701, "expected_assists": 0.078, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14773803, "match_date": "2026-05-21", "home_team": "Al-Ittihad", "away_team": "Al-Qadsiah", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Al-Qadsiah", "opponent": "Al-Ittihad", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 8.5, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.9077, "expected_assists": 0.007, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Saudi Pro League", "league_id": "955", "league_slug": "saudi-pro-league", "league_country": "Saudi Arabia", "season_id": "80443", "season_name": "Saudi Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14773795, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Al-Qadsiah", "away_team": "Al-Hazem", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Al-Qadsiah", "opponent": "Al-Hazem", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.7168, "expected_assists": 0.7163, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Saudi Pro League", "league_id": "955", "league_slug": "saudi-pro-league", "league_country": "Saudi Arabia", "season_id": "80443", "season_name": "Saudi Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14771882, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Al-Fayha", "away_team": "Al-Qadsiah", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Al-Qadsiah", "opponent": "Al-Fayha", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5403, "expected_assists": 0.1103, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 30, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Saudi Pro League", "league_id": "955", "league_slug": "saudi-pro-league", "league_country": "Saudi Arabia", "season_id": "80443", "season_name": "Saudi Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 11886364, "match_date": "2024-07-01", "home_team": "Mexico", "away_team": "Ecuador", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Mexico", "opponent": "Ecuador", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1299, "expected_assists": 0.2508, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, 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"is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celtic", "opponent": "Motherwell", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1135, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Scottish Premiership", "league_id": "36", "league_slug": "premiership", "league_country": "Scotland", "season_id": "77128", "season_name": "Premiership 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15981432, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Celtic", "away_team": "Rangers", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celtic", "opponent": "Rangers", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2836, "expected_assists": 0.0485, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Scottish Premiership", "league_id": "36", "league_slug": "premiership", "league_country": "Scotland", "season_id": "77128", "season_name": "Premiership 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15981430, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Hibernian", "away_team": "Celtic", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celtic", "opponent": "Hibernian", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1926, "expected_assists": 0.8761, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Scottish Premiership", "league_id": "36", "league_slug": "premiership", "league_country": "Scotland", "season_id": "77128", "season_name": "Premiership 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17949, "combined_rank_score": 2410.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 4602.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7304, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yang Hyun-Jun", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Anass Salah-Eddine", "ranking": 17944 }, { "player_name": "Kamil Piątkowski", "ranking": 17945 }, { "player_name": "Matías Espinoza", "ranking": 17946 }, { "player_name": "Alex Paulsen", "ranking": 17947 }, { "player_name": "Adrián Bernabé", "ranking": 17948 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Denis Drăguş", "ranking": 17950 }, { "player_name": "Isak Jansson", "ranking": 17951 }, { "player_name": "Jack Rudoni", "ranking": 17952 }, { "player_name": "Horațiu Moldovan", "ranking": 17953 }, { "player_name": "Leart Paqarada", "ranking": 17954 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.08, "expected_assists": 1.24, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 523, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 7, "avg_rating": 84.64, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Gilberto Mora", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 11000000, "attacker_height": 166, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.534, "defenders": [ "Gi-Hyuk Lee" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.41, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.416, "xg_contribution": 0.0465, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.7, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gi-Hyuk Lee", "role": "CB", "market_value": 825000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.584 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gilberto Mora (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Gi-Hyuk Lee in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.046 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Edson Álvarez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 14600000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.575, "defenders": [ "Kang-in Lee" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.718, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.416, "xg_contribution": 0.1214, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kang-in Lee", "role": "CM", "market_value": 30000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.584 } ], "duel_analysis": "Edson Álvarez (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Kang-in Lee in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. The quality gap is significant (€15M vs €30M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.121 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Julián Quiñones", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 12900000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.556, "defenders": [ "Gi-Hyuk Lee", "Kim Min-jae" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.526, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.186, "xg_contribution": 0.2967, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gi-Hyuk Lee", "role": "CB", "market_value": 825000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.814 }, { "player": "Kim Min-jae", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.814 } ], "duel_analysis": "Julián Quiñones (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Gi-Hyuk Lee and Kim Min-jae in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Projected xG contribution: 0.297 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Raúl Jiménez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 189, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Kang-in Lee" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.718, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.355, "xg_contribution": 0.5967, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kang-in Lee", "role": "CM", "market_value": 30000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.645 } ], "duel_analysis": "Raúl Jiménez (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Kang-in Lee in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €30M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.597 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Roberto Alvarado", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Gi-Hyuk Lee" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.41, "duel_zone": "RM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.424, "xg_contribution": 0.0047, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gi-Hyuk Lee", "role": "CB", "market_value": 825000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.576 } ], "duel_analysis": "Roberto Alvarado (RM) is evenly matched against Gi-Hyuk Lee in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.005 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Seung Ho Paik", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.424, "defenders": [ "Jorge Sánchez" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.422, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.429, "xg_contribution": 0.0731, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jorge Sánchez", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.571 } ], "duel_analysis": "Seung Ho Paik (LWB) is evenly matched against Jorge Sánchez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.073 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Kang-in Lee", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 30000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.718, "defenders": [ "Álvaro Fidalgo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.481, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.553, "xg_contribution": 0.0135, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Álvaro Fidalgo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.447 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kang-in Lee (CM) is slightly favored against Álvaro Fidalgo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 55%. The quality gap is significant (€30M vs €6M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.013 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Lee Tae-seok", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.426, "defenders": [ "Álvaro Fidalgo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.481, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.426, "xg_contribution": 0.1022, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Álvaro Fidalgo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.574 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lee Tae-seok (CM) is evenly matched against Álvaro Fidalgo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.102 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Hwang In-beom", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 6400000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.479, "defenders": [ "Jesús Gallardo" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.434, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "xg_contribution": 0.3404, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jesús Gallardo", "role": "LB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.575 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hwang In-beom (RWB) is evenly matched against Jesús Gallardo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.340 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Hyeon-gyu Oh", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 16000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.59, "defenders": [ "Erik Lira" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.559, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.516, "xg_contribution": 0.3978, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Erik Lira", "role": "CB", "market_value": 13200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.484 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hyeon-gyu Oh (SS) is slightly favored against Erik Lira in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. Projected xG contribution: 0.398 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Son Heung-min", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 16399999, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.594, "defenders": [ "Erik Lira" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.559, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.514, "xg_contribution": 1.1136, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Erik Lira", "role": "CB", "market_value": 13200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.486 } ], "duel_analysis": "Son Heung-min (SS) is slightly favored against Erik Lira in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. Projected xG contribution: 1.114 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Young-woo Seol", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6700000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.483, "defenders": [ "Erik Lira", "Johan Vásquez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.548, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.181, "xg_contribution": 0.2122, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Erik Lira", "role": "CB", "market_value": 13200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.819 }, { "player": "Johan Vásquez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 11300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.819 } ], "duel_analysis": "Young-woo Seol (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Erik Lira and Johan Vásquez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.212 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.53, "away_midfield_power": 0.537, "home_creative_power": 0.551, "away_creative_power": 0.557, "home_defensive_power": 0.521, "away_defensive_power": 0.36, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.497, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Álvaro Fidalgo", "Gilberto Mora", "Edson Álvarez" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Kang-in Lee", "Lee Tae-seok", "Seung Ho Paik", "Hwang In-beom" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.9, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.8, "home_throughball_threat": 2.3, "away_throughball_threat": 2.3, "key_personal_duel": "Edson Álvarez vs Kang-in Lee", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.014, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.003 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-1-4-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.03, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-1-4-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.362, "away_lambda": 2.085, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Gilberto Mora": { "opponents": [ "Gi-Hyuk Lee", "Seung Ho Paik" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Edson Álvarez": { "opponents": [ "Kang-in Lee", "Lee Tae-seok" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Julián Quiñones": { "opponents": [ "Gi-Hyuk Lee", "Kim Min-jae" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Raúl Jiménez": { "opponents": [ "Kang-in Lee" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Roberto Alvarado": { "opponents": [ "Gi-Hyuk Lee" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jorge Sánchez": { "opponents": [ "Seung Ho Paik" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Álvaro Fidalgo": { "opponents": [ "Kang-in Lee", "Lee Tae-seok", "Hwang In-beom" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jesús Gallardo": { "opponents": [ "Hwang In-beom" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Erik Lira": { "opponents": [ "Hyeon-gyu Oh", "Son Heung-min", "Young-woo Seol" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Johan Vásquez": { "opponents": [ "Young-woo Seol" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Raúl Rangel": { "opponents": [ "Son Heung-min", "Hyeon-gyu Oh" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Gi-Hyuk Lee": { "opponents": [ "Gilberto Mora", "Julián Quiñones", "Roberto Alvarado" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kang-in Lee": { "opponents": [ "Edson Álvarez", "Raúl Jiménez", "Álvaro Fidalgo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kim Min-jae": { "opponents": [ "Julián Quiñones" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Seung Ho Paik": { "opponents": [ "Jorge Sánchez", "Gilberto Mora" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lee Tae-seok": { "opponents": [ "Álvaro Fidalgo", "Edson Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hwang In-beom": { "opponents": [ "Jesús Gallardo", "Álvaro Fidalgo" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hyeon-gyu Oh": { "opponents": [ "Erik Lira" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Son Heung-min": { "opponents": [ "Erik Lira" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Young-woo Seol": { "opponents": [ "Erik Lira", "Johan Vásquez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kim Seung-gyu": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Alvarado", "Raúl Jiménez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Han-Beom Lee": { "opponents": [ "Julián Quiñones" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Edson Álvarez vs Kang-in Lee will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.07, Away: 2.25. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0233, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.994, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.046, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1031, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9776, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.984, "home_midfield_factor": 1.014, "away_midfield_factor": 1.003, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.5029, "away_avg_quality": 0.52, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0171, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.1887, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.3157, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.2344, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0327, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1201, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.046, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.362, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 2.085, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.3621, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.085, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.362, "final_away_lambda": 2.085 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-18T13:39:31Z" }