{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Canada", "away_team": "Qatar", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260618", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-3-3" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1357, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1357 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1306 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1194 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1194 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.075 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1194, "0-1": 0.1194, "0-2": 0.0615, "0-3": 0.0209, "0-4": 0.0053, "0-5": 0.0011, "1-0": 0.1306, "1-1": 0.1357, "1-2": 0.0686, "1-3": 0.0233, "1-4": 0.0059, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0735, "2-1": 0.075, "2-2": 0.0382, "2-3": 0.013, "2-4": 0.0033, "2-5": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.0273, "3-1": 0.0279, "3-2": 0.0142, "3-3": 0.0048, "3-4": 0.0012, "4-0": 0.0076, "4-1": 0.0078, "4-2": 0.004, "4-3": 0.0013, "5-0": 0.0017, "5-1": 0.0017, "5-2": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3749, "draw": 0.2985, "away_win": 0.3265 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3598, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6402, "btts_yes": 0.4309, "btts_no": 0.5691, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3279 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 77.5, "MCR": 80.37, "ATR": 86.36, "GK": 75.76 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 86.75, "MCR": 89.06, "ATR": 86.91, "GK": 86.94 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Canada vs Qatar. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Cyle Larin, Edmilson Junior", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Ismael Koné vs Akram Afif will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.32, Away: 0.82. Home danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.115, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3749, "draw": 0.2985, "away_win": 0.3265 }, "favorite": "Canada", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3749, "fair_spread": 0.095, "fair_total": 2.135, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Canada", "estimate": 1.115, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Qatar", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3598, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4309, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Canada", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Qatar", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3279, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Jonathan David (Canada)", "estimate": 0.3629, "probability": 0.3016, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Edmilson Junior (Qatar)", "estimate": 0.5022, "probability": 0.3336, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Richie Laryea (Canada)", "estimate": 0.3635, "probability": 0.137, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Akram Afif (Qatar)", "estimate": 0.1488, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.135, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 686, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.9, "possession_home_pct": 51.4, "possession_away_pct": 48.6, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Canada", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3749, "script": "Canada is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.10 goals and fair total 2.13.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Qatar must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Canada lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Qatar chance creation leans on Edmilson Junior against Ismael Koné in Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Canada: starters carry the main goal usage through Cyle Larin; bench watchlist: Alphonso Davies, Promise David, Tani Oluwaseyi.", "Qatar: starters carry the main goal usage through Edmilson Junior; bench watchlist: Almoez Ali, Meshaal Barsham, Ahmed Al-Ganehi.", "Assist usage should flow through Stephen Eustaquio; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Canada tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.07 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Qatar is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Canada.", "Qatar wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Canada": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Maxime Crépeau": { "player_id": 155736, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 185, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.1406, "rating": 75.7594, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 17, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "touches": 34, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.9812, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 6.8686, "duels_won": 2, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "tackles": 1, "expected_saves": 1.72, "high_pressure_saves": 0.66, "shots_faced": 3.7, "opponent_faced": "Edmilson Junior, Ayoub Al Oui", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186836, "match_date": "2026-06-12", "home_team": "Canada", "away_team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0025 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 11886259, "match_date": "2024-07-10", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Argentina", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 26, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.5864 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" }, { "match_id": 11886368, "match_date": "2024-06-30", "home_team": "Canada", "away_team": "Chile", "team_side": "home", 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"player_name": "Morgan Poaty", "ranking": 19009 }, { "player_name": "Caspar Jander", "ranking": 19010 }, { "player_name": "Luka Ilić", "ranking": 19011 }, { "player_name": "Ahmed Kutucu", "ranking": 19012 } ] } } }, "Cyle Larin": { "player_id": 790179, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 187, "market_value": 3600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1571, "goal_rate": 0.7005, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0807, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 84.3056, "minutes": 29, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 10, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 6.8842, "dispossessed": 1.9669, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 0.4327, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.218, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Issa Laye, Homam Al-Amin", "opponent_faced": "Issa Laye, Homam Al-Amin", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4151, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0934, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186836, "match_date": "2026-06-12", "home_team": "Canada", "away_team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2138, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 11886259, "match_date": "2024-07-10", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Argentina", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2349, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" }, { "match_id": 11886368, "match_date": "2024-06-30", "home_team": "Canada", "away_team": "Chile", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Chile", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0902, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" }, { "match_id": 11886361, "match_date": "2024-06-25", "home_team": "Peru", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Peru", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 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"shirt_number": 10, "height": 174, "market_value": 330000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 86.4526, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 0.8962, "dispossessed": 0.9812, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, 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"expected_goals": 0.1132, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15603932, "match_date": "2026-04-27", "home_team": "Al-Rayyan", "away_team": "Al-Arabi SC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Al-Rayyan", "opponent": "Al-Arabi SC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Stars League", "league_id": "825", "league_slug": "stars-league", "league_country": "Qatar", 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"ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Stars League", "league_id": "825", "league_slug": "stars-league", "league_country": "Qatar", "season_id": "77227", "season_name": "Stars League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5235, "combined_rank_score": 481.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 566.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.3969, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ahmed Alaaeldin", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Luis Miranda", "ranking": 5230 }, { "player_name": "Angelos Liasos", "ranking": 5231 }, { "player_name": "Samir Fekri", "ranking": 5232 }, { "player_name": "Gergő Holdampf", "ranking": 5233 }, { "player_name": "Luis Abreu", "ranking": 5234 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Elione Fernandes Neto", "ranking": 5236 }, { "player_name": "Evan Eghosa", "ranking": 5237 }, { "player_name": "Bautista Tomatis", "ranking": 5238 }, { "player_name": "Kai Shibato", "ranking": 5239 }, { "player_name": "Ayabulela Konqobe", "ranking": 5240 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.2, "total_shots": 9, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 295, "interceptions": 11, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 87.62, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Cyle Larin", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Issa Laye", "Homam Al-Amin" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.404, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.218, "xg_contribution": 0.1288, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Issa Laye", "role": "CB", "market_value": 210000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.782 }, { "player": "Homam Al-Amin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 460000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.782 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cyle Larin (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Issa Laye and Homam Al-Amin in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Projected xG contribution: 0.129 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Liam Millar", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 2900000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.436, "defenders": [ "Pedro Miguel" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.402, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.447, "xg_contribution": 0.1375, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedro Miguel", "role": "RB", "market_value": 160000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.553 } ], "duel_analysis": "Liam Millar (LM) is evenly matched against Pedro Miguel in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.138 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Stephen Eustaquio", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 6500000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.481, "defenders": [ "Boualem Khoukhi" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.402, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "xg_contribution": 0.0123, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Boualem Khoukhi", "role": "LB", "market_value": 190000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525 } ], "duel_analysis": "Stephen Eustaquio (RM) is evenly matched against Boualem Khoukhi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.012 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ismael Koné", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Assim Madibo", "Edmilson Junior" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.414, "duel_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.478, "xg_contribution": 0.0446, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Assim Madibo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 325000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.522 }, { "player": "Edmilson Junior", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.522 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ismael Koné (CM) is evenly matched against Assim Madibo and Edmilson Junior in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 48%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.045 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Yusuf Abdurisag", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 290000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.404, "defenders": [ "Derek Cornelius" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.429, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.417, "xg_contribution": 0.1816, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Derek Cornelius", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.583 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yusuf Abdurisag (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Derek Cornelius in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.182 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ayoub Al Oui", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 360000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.404, "defenders": [ "Richie Laryea" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.412, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.489, "xg_contribution": 0.2012, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Richie Laryea", "role": "LB", "market_value": 950000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.511 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ayoub Al Oui (RW) is evenly matched against Richie Laryea in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.201 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 475000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.406, "defenders": [ "Luc De Fougerolles", "Alistair Johnston" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.453, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.185, "xg_contribution": 0.1932, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luc De Fougerolles", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.815 }, { "player": "Alistair Johnston", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.815 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Luc De Fougerolles and Alistair Johnston in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.193 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Assim Madibo", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 325000, "attacker_height": 168, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.404, "defenders": [ "Ismael Koné" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.213, "xg_contribution": 0.0342, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 1, "dribbles_successful": 0.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ismael Koné", "role": "CM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787 } ], "duel_analysis": "Assim Madibo (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ismael Koné in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.034 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Edmilson Junior", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.424, "defenders": [ "Ismael Koné" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.27, "xg_contribution": 0.2099, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ismael Koné", "role": "CM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.73 } ], "duel_analysis": "Edmilson Junior (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ismael Koné in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.210 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.565, "away_midfield_power": 0.457, "home_creative_power": 0.495, "away_creative_power": 0.466, "home_defensive_power": 0.476, "away_defensive_power": 0.405, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.553, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Liam Millar", "Stephen Eustaquio", "Ismael Koné", "Tajon Buchanan" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Assim Madibo", "Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam", "Edmilson Junior", "Akram Afif" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "home_throughball_threat": 2.1, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Ismael Koné vs Akram Afif", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.019, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.988 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.115, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Cyle Larin": { "opponents": [ "Issa Laye", "Homam Al-Amin" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Liam Millar": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Miguel", "Akram Afif" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Stephen Eustaquio": { "opponents": [ "Boualem Khoukhi", "Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ismael Koné": { "opponents": [ "Assim Madibo", "Edmilson Junior" ], "primary_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Derek Cornelius": { "opponents": [ "Yusuf Abdurisag" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Richie Laryea": { "opponents": [ "Ayoub Al Oui" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luc De Fougerolles": { "opponents": [ "Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alistair Johnston": { "opponents": [ "Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tajon Buchanan": { "opponents": [ "Edmilson Junior" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Maxime Crépeau": { "opponents": [ "Yusuf Abdurisag", "Akram Afif" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jonathan David": { "opponents": [ "Homam Al-Amin", "Ayoub Al Oui" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Issa Laye": { "opponents": [ "Cyle Larin" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Homam Al-Amin": { "opponents": [ "Cyle Larin" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pedro Miguel": { "opponents": [ "Liam Millar" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Boualem Khoukhi": { "opponents": [ "Stephen Eustaquio" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Assim Madibo": { "opponents": [ "Ismael Koné" ], "primary_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Edmilson Junior": { "opponents": [ "Ismael Koné", "Tajon Buchanan" ], "primary_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yusuf Abdurisag": { "opponents": [ "Derek Cornelius" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ayoub Al Oui": { "opponents": [ "Richie Laryea" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam": { "opponents": [ "Luc De Fougerolles", "Alistair Johnston", "Stephen Eustaquio" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Akram Afif": { "opponents": [ "Liam Millar" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Mahmud Abunada": { "opponents": [ "Jonathan David", "Cyle Larin" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Ismael Koné vs Akram Afif will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.32, Away: 0.82. Home danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0238, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0163, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.077, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.093, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0078, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9915, "home_midfield_factor": 1.019, "away_midfield_factor": 0.988, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5061, "away_avg_quality": 0.4147, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0914, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.5482, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.493, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.4909, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1967, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.4327, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2754, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0432, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0216, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.115, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.817, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1152, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8166, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.115, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-18T13:39:21Z" }