{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Haiti", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260619", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-0", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1178, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1178 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.1104 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0837 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0827 }, { "score": "4-0", "probability": 0.0777 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0298, "0-1": 0.0209, "0-2": 0.0073, "0-3": 0.0017, "1-0": 0.0837, "1-1": 0.0588, "1-2": 0.0206, "1-3": 0.0048, "1-4": 0.0008, "2-0": 0.1178, "2-1": 0.0827, "2-2": 0.029, "2-3": 0.0068, "2-4": 0.0012, "3-0": 0.1104, "3-1": 0.0775, "3-2": 0.0272, "3-3": 0.0064, "3-4": 0.0011, "4-0": 0.0777, "4-1": 0.0545, "4-2": 0.0191, "4-3": 0.0045, "4-4": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0437, "5-1": 0.0307, "5-2": 0.0108, "5-3": 0.0025, "6-0": 0.0205, "6-1": 0.0144, "6-2": 0.005, "6-3": 0.0012, "7-0": 0.0082, "7-1": 0.0058, "7-2": 0.002, "8-0": 0.0029, "8-1": 0.002, "8-2": 0.0007, "9-0": 0.0009, "9-1": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.8089, "draw": 0.1248, "away_win": 0.0663 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6817, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3183, "btts_yes": 0.4741, "btts_no": 0.5259, "home_clean_sheet": 0.4956, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0601 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 88.39, "MCR": 92.92, "ATR": 92.41, "GK": 95.93 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 77.29, "MCR": 82.41, "ATR": 76.24, "GK": 75.84 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Brazil vs Haiti. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Raphinha, Vinícius Júnior", "tactical_analysis": "4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Bruno Guimarães vs Jean-Ricner Bellegarde). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.91, Away: 0.65. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.88, "home_lambda": 2.813, "away_lambda": 0.702 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.8089, "draw": 0.1248, "away_win": 0.0663 }, "favorite": "Brazil", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8089, "fair_spread": 2.111, "fair_total": 3.515, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Brazil", "estimate": 2.813, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Haiti", "estimate": 0.702, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6817, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4741, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Brazil", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4956, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Haiti", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0601, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Matheus Cunha (Brazil)", "estimate": 0.923, "probability": 0.3932, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Frantzdy Pierrot (Haiti)", "estimate": 0.1997, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Raphinha (Brazil)", "estimate": 0.3118, "probability": 0.4421, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ruben Providence (Haiti)", "estimate": 0.257, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.515, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 891, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.4, "possession_home_pct": 52.5, "possession_away_pct": 47.5, "notes": "Brazil projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Brazil", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8089, "script": "Brazil is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +2.11 goals and fair total 3.52.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Haiti must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Brazil lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Brazil chance creation leans on Matheus Cunha against Martin Expérience in Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle; Brazil projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Brazil: starters carry the main goal usage through Raphinha, Vinícius Júnior; bench watchlist: Estêvão, João Pedro, Rodrygo.", "Haiti: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Josué Casimir, Jean-Kévin Duverne, Lenny Joseph.", "Assist usage should flow through Raphinha; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Brazil tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.76 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Haiti is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Brazil.", "Haiti wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Brazil": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Alisson": { "player_id": 243609, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 193, "market_value": 16500000, "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 95.9323, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 35, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.0286, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 6.583, "duels_won": 2, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 0, "expected_saves": 1.36, "high_pressure_saves": 0.52, "shots_faced": 2.9, "opponent_faced": "Frantzdy Pierrot, Ruben Providence", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186850, "match_date": "2026-06-13", "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Morocco", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brazil", "opponent": "Morocco", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.2586 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023962, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 19, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.1557 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631369, "match_date": "2026-03-18", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Galatasaray", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Galatasaray", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0185 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14169220, "match_date": "2025-09-09", "home_team": "Bolivia", "away_team": "Brazil", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brazil", "opponent": "Bolivia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 29, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 15, "saves": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14169219, "match_date": "2025-09-05", "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Chile", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brazil", "opponent": "Chile", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 19, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13856229, "match_date": "2025-06-11", "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Paraguay", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brazil", "opponent": "Paraguay", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13856221, "match_date": "2025-06-05", "home_team": "Ecuador", "away_team": "Brazil", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brazil", "opponent": "Ecuador", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 21, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13129489, "match_date": "2025-03-21", "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Colombia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brazil", "opponent": "Colombia", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 16, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 11886385, "match_date": "2024-07-03", "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Colombia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brazil", "opponent": "Colombia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -0.0909 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" }, { "match_id": 11886398, "match_date": "2024-06-29", "home_team": "Paraguay", "away_team": "Brazil", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brazil", "opponent": "Paraguay", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 24, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -0.1297 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 106, "combined_rank_score": 101.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 181.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 22.0, "fifa_overall": 89.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.9323, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alisson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jaylan Hankins", "ranking": 101 }, { "player_name": "Granit Xhaka", "ranking": 102 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Serna", "ranking": 103 }, { "player_name": "Matías Palavecino", "ranking": 104 }, { "player_name": "Désiré Doué", "ranking": 105 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vitinha", "ranking": 107 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Henrique", "ranking": 108 }, { "player_name": "Gastón Ávila", "ranking": 109 }, { "player_name": "Allan", "ranking": 110 }, { "player_name": "Robert Lewandowski", "ranking": 111 } ] } } }, "Matheus Cunha": { "player_id": 886363, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 184, "market_value": 79000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.923, "goal_rate": 0.0004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 89.9028, "minutes": 30, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 7.0537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 30, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.718, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Martin Expérience", "opponent_faced": "Martin Expérience", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3932, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0164, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186850, "match_date": "2026-06-13", "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Morocco", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brazil", "opponent": "Morocco", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 8.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.319, "expected_assists": 0.4868, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3259, "expected_assists": 0.1151, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13856229, "match_date": "2025-06-11", "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Paraguay", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brazil", "opponent": "Paraguay", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.7, "assists": 1, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13856221, "match_date": "2025-06-05", "home_team": "Ecuador", "away_team": "Brazil", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brazil", "opponent": "Ecuador", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. 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"dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlens Arcus", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.34 } ], "duel_analysis": "Raphinha (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Carlens Arcus in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 66%. The quality gap is significant (€63M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.242 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Matheus Cunha", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 79000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.881, "defenders": [ "Martin Expérience" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.404, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.718, "xg_contribution": 0.441, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Martin Expérience", "role": "LB", "market_value": 360000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.282 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matheus Cunha (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against Martin Expérience in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 72%. The quality gap is significant (€79M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.441 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Luiz Henrique", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 25000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.677, "defenders": [ "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.607, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.5, "xg_contribution": 0.0587, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde", "role": "CM", "market_value": 17600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.5 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luiz Henrique (CAM) is evenly matched against Jean-Ricner Bellegarde in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Vinícius Júnior", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 146000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Hannes Delcroix", "Ricardo Adé" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.415, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.372, "xg_contribution": 0.1492, "shots_in_zone": 2.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hannes Delcroix", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.628 }, { "player": "Ricardo Adé", "role": "CB", "market_value": 310000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.628 } ], "duel_analysis": "Vinícius Júnior (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Hannes Delcroix and Ricardo Adé in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€146M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.149 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Bruno Guimarães", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 72000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.873, "defenders": [ "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.607, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "xg_contribution": 0.0228, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde", "role": "CM", "market_value": 17600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.432 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bruno Guimarães (CDM) is slightly favored against Jean-Ricner Bellegarde in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€72M vs €18M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.023 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Frantzdy Pierrot", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1400000, "attacker_height": 194, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.417, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Magalhães", "Marquinhos" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.782, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3451, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Magalhães", "role": "CB", "market_value": 70000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Marquinhos", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Frantzdy Pierrot (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Gabriel Magalhães and Marquinhos in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.345 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ruben Providence", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 270000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.403, "defenders": [ "Danilo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.432, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.399, "xg_contribution": 0.1234, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Danilo", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.601 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ruben Providence (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Danilo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.123 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Louicius Don Deedson", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 1300000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.416, "defenders": [ "Douglas Santos" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.487, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "xg_contribution": 0.076, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Douglas Santos", "role": "LB", "market_value": 7000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.556 } ], "duel_analysis": "Louicius Don Deedson (RM) is evenly matched against Douglas Santos in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.076 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 17600000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.607, "defenders": [ "Bruno Guimarães" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.873, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.282, "xg_contribution": 0.102, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bruno Guimarães", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 72000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.718 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Bruno Guimarães in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€18M vs €72M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.102 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.761, "away_midfield_power": 0.483, "home_creative_power": 0.69, "away_creative_power": 0.581, "home_defensive_power": 0.591, "away_defensive_power": 0.506, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.612, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Raphinha", "Luiz Henrique", "Bruno Guimarães", "Fabinho" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde", "Danley Jean Jacques", "Ruben Providence" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.0, "home_throughball_threat": 2.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.3, "key_personal_duel": "Bruno Guimarães vs Jean-Ricner Bellegarde", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.035, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.975 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.07, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "formation_verdict": "4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition." }, "home_lambda": 2.813, "away_lambda": 0.702, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Raphinha": { "opponents": [ "Carlens Arcus", "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Matheus Cunha": { "opponents": [ "Martin Expérience" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Luiz Henrique": { "opponents": [ "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Vinícius Júnior": { "opponents": [ "Hannes Delcroix", "Ricardo Adé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bruno Guimarães": { "opponents": [ "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde", "Danley Jean Jacques" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gabriel Magalhães": { "opponents": [ "Frantzdy Pierrot" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marquinhos": { "opponents": [ "Frantzdy Pierrot" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Danilo": { "opponents": [ "Ruben Providence" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Douglas Santos": { "opponents": [ "Louicius Don Deedson" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Fabinho": { "opponents": [ "Ruben Providence" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Alisson": { "opponents": [ "Wilson Isidor", "Louicius Don Deedson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Carlens Arcus": { "opponents": [ "Raphinha" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Martin Expérience": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Cunha" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde": { "opponents": [ "Luiz Henrique", "Bruno Guimarães", "Raphinha" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hannes Delcroix": { "opponents": [ "Vinícius Júnior" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ricardo Adé": { "opponents": [ "Vinícius Júnior" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Frantzdy Pierrot": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Magalhães", "Marquinhos" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ruben Providence": { "opponents": [ "Danilo", "Fabinho" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Louicius Don Deedson": { "opponents": [ "Douglas Santos" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Danley Jean Jacques": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Guimarães" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Johny Placide": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Cunha", "Vinícius Júnior" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Wilson Isidor": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Magalhães", "Marquinhos" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Bruno Guimarães vs Jean-Ricner Bellegarde). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.91, Away: 0.65. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0252, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9459, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0868, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.117, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.014, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9439, "home_midfield_factor": 1.035, "away_midfield_factor": 0.975, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7208, "away_avg_quality": 0.4558, "avg_quality_gap": 0.265, "squad_value_gap_log": 2.1975, "top5_value_gap_log": 2.1108, "attack_value_gap_log": 2.0499, "elite_count_gap": 5, "combined_quality_gap": 0.414, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.9109, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.5796, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1061, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0751, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.414, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1085, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9686, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 2.538, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.725, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.5381, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7251, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 2.813, "final_away_lambda": 0.702 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-19T13:38:59Z" }