{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Scotland", "away_team": "Morocco", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260619", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-2", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1298, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.1298 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.112 }, { "score": "0-3", "probability": 0.1003 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0924 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0798 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0483, "0-1": 0.112, "0-2": 0.1298, "0-3": 0.1003, "0-4": 0.0581, "0-5": 0.0269, "0-6": 0.0104, "0-7": 0.0034, "0-8": 0.001, "1-0": 0.0344, "1-1": 0.0798, "1-2": 0.0924, "1-3": 0.0714, "1-4": 0.0414, "1-5": 0.0192, "1-6": 0.0074, "1-7": 0.0025, "1-8": 0.0007, "2-0": 0.0122, "2-1": 0.0284, "2-2": 0.0329, "2-3": 0.0254, "2-4": 0.0147, "2-5": 0.0068, "2-6": 0.0026, "2-7": 0.0009, "3-0": 0.0029, "3-1": 0.0067, "3-2": 0.0078, "3-3": 0.006, "3-4": 0.0035, "3-5": 0.0016, "3-6": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0005, "4-1": 0.0012, "4-2": 0.0014, "4-3": 0.0011, "4-4": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.0975, "draw": 0.1677, "away_win": 0.7349 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5834, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4166, "btts_yes": 0.4592, "btts_no": 0.5408, "home_clean_sheet": 0.0985, "away_clean_sheet": 0.4907 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 83.08, "MCR": 88.41, "ATR": 81.52, "GK": 79.12 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 86.17, "MCR": 84.14, "ATR": 6.5, "GK": 91.83 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Scotland vs Morocco. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Brahim Díaz, Ismael Saibari", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Scott McTominay vs Ayyoub Bouaddi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 1.21. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.83, "home_lambda": 0.712, "away_lambda": 2.318 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.0975, "draw": 0.1677, "away_win": 0.7349 }, "favorite": "Morocco", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7349, "fair_spread": -1.606, "fair_total": 3.03, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Scotland", "estimate": 0.712, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Morocco", "estimate": 2.318, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5834, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4592, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Scotland", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0985, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Morocco", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4907, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Che Adams (Scotland)", "estimate": 0.2226, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Issa Diop (Morocco)", "estimate": 0.8289, "probability": 0.3843, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Andy Robertson (Scotland)", "estimate": 0.149, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Brahim Díaz (Morocco)", "estimate": 0.2034, "probability": 0.2415, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.03, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 810, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.1, "possession_home_pct": 48.1, "possession_away_pct": 51.9, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Morocco", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7349, "script": "Morocco is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -1.61 goals and fair total 3.03.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Scotland must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Morocco lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Morocco chance creation leans on Ismael Saibari against Andy Robertson in Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Scotland: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Nathan Patterson, George Hirst, Ryan Christie.", "Morocco: starters carry the main goal usage through Brahim Díaz, Ismael Saibari; bench watchlist: Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, Chemsdine Talbi, Zakaria El Ouahdi.", "Assist usage should flow through Brahim Díaz; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Morocco tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.51 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Scotland is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Morocco.", "Scotland wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Scotland": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Angus Gunn": { "player_id": 227946, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 196, "market_value": 1100000, "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.2183, "rating": 79.1165, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 25, "total_long_balls": 23, "accurate_long_balls": 11, "touches": 44, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 11.7747, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "expected_saves": 2.55, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "shots_faced": 5.5, "opponent_faced": "Ismael Saibari, Neil El Aynaoui", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186853, "match_date": "2026-06-14", "home_team": "Haiti", "away_team": "Scotland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Scotland", "opponent": "Haiti", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 25, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.223 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17420, "combined_rank_score": 1976.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 181.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 3772.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.1165, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Angus Gunn", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Connor Barron", "ranking": 17415 }, { "player_name": "Luke O'Nien", "ranking": 17416 }, { "player_name": "Lekue", "ranking": 17417 }, { "player_name": "Mathis Amougou", "ranking": 17418 }, { "player_name": "Pasquale Mazzocchi", "ranking": 17419 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Morlaye Sylla", "ranking": 17421 }, { "player_name": "Ousmane Diao", "ranking": 17422 }, { "player_name": "Evan Ferguson", "ranking": 17423 }, { "player_name": "Luis Mejía", "ranking": 17424 }, { "player_name": "Niels Nkounkou", "ranking": 17425 } ] } } }, "Che Adams": { "player_id": 773409, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 175, "market_value": 4800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2226, "goal_rate": 0.011, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 83.4557, "minutes": 65, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 5.4335, "dispossessed": 1.9758, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5829, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Chadi Riad, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Chadi Riad, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186853, "match_date": "2026-06-14", "home_team": "Haiti", "away_team": "Scotland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Scotland", "opponent": "Haiti", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5774, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13980077, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Torino", "away_team": "Juventus", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Torino", "opponent": "Juventus", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1794, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Serie A", "league_id": "23", "league_slug": "serie-a", "league_country": "Italy", "season_id": "76457", "season_name": "Serie A 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13980060, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Cagliari", "away_team": "Torino", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Torino", "opponent": "Cagliari", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3666, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Serie A", "league_id": "23", "league_slug": "serie-a", "league_country": "Italy", "season_id": "76457", "season_name": "Serie A 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233690, "match_date": "2025-11-18", "home_team": "Scotland", "away_team": "Denmark", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Scotland", "opponent": "Denmark", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 16187, "combined_rank_score": 1034.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 643.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7167, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 1426.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.4557, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Che Adams", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Luca Ranieri", "ranking": 16182 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Ikoné", "ranking": 16183 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Edwards", "ranking": 16184 }, { "player_name": "Juan Fernando Quintero", "ranking": 16185 }, { "player_name": "Álex Moreno", "ranking": 16186 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sikou Niakaté", "ranking": 16188 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Mavropanos", "ranking": 16189 }, { "player_name": "Petar Musa", "ranking": 16190 }, { "player_name": "Diego Rico", "ranking": 16191 }, { "player_name": "Issa Diop", "ranking": 16192 } ] } } }, "John McGinn": { "player_id": 250223, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 175, "market_value": 12600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0525, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1458, "rating": 88.3711, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 33, "possession_lost": 10.2387, "dispossessed": 2.0315, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 1.0809, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5485, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.287, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Achraf Hakimi", "opponent_faced": "Achraf Hakimi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186853, "match_date": "2026-06-14", "home_team": "Haiti", "away_team": "Scotland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Scotland", "opponent": "Haiti", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2284, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0598, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632626, "match_date": "2026-05-20", "home_team": "SC Freiburg", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "SC Freiburg", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3776, "expected_assists": 0.4313, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023928, "match_date": "2026-05-15", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0318, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023929, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 1, 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"sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 166.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7019, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ayoube Amaimouni Echghouyab", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Wael Mohya", "ranking": 272 }, { "player_name": "Luka Modrić", "ranking": 273 }, { "player_name": "Leonard Pllana", "ranking": 274 }, { "player_name": "Alan Medina", "ranking": 275 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Moya", "ranking": 276 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sancet", "ranking": 278 }, { "player_name": "Xavi Simons", "ranking": 279 }, { "player_name": "Mousa Tamari", "ranking": 280 }, { "player_name": "Eldor Adhamov", "ranking": 281 }, { "player_name": "Allan Saint-Maximin", "ranking": 282 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.32, "expected_assists": 0.7, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 9, "total_passes": 449, "interceptions": 5, "tackles": 23, "avg_rating": 85.58, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Che Adams", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4800000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.46, "defenders": [ "Chadi Riad", "Issa Diop" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.538, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3044, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Chadi Riad", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Issa Diop", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8199999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Che Adams (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Chadi Riad and Issa Diop in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.304 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "John McGinn", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 12600000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.552, "defenders": [ "Achraf Hakimi" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.884, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.287, "xg_contribution": 0.1599, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Achraf Hakimi", "role": "RB", "market_value": 82000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.713 } ], "duel_analysis": "John McGinn (LM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Achraf Hakimi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€13M vs €82M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.160 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ben Gannon-Doak", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 14600000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.575, "defenders": [ "Noussair Mazraoui" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.606, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.41, "xg_contribution": 0.0548, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noussair Mazraoui", "role": "LB", "market_value": 17500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.59 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ben Gannon-Doak (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Noussair Mazraoui in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.055 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Lewis Ferguson", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 13000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.557, "defenders": [ "Neil El Aynaoui" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.65, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.388, "xg_contribution": 0.114, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Neil El Aynaoui", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 22000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.612 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lewis Ferguson (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Neil El Aynaoui in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.114 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Bilal El Khannouss", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Grant Hanley" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.402, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.596, "xg_contribution": 0.0428, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Grant Hanley", "role": "RB", "market_value": 195000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.404 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bilal El Khannouss (LW) is slightly favored against Grant Hanley in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ismael Saibari", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Andy Robertson" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.493, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.646, "xg_contribution": 0.8282, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andy Robertson", "role": "LB", "market_value": 7500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.354 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ismael Saibari (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against Andy Robertson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 65%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €8M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.828 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Brahim Díaz", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Lewis Ferguson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.557, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.469, "xg_contribution": 0.1165, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Ferguson", "role": "CM", "market_value": 13000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.531 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brahim Díaz (CAM) is evenly matched against Lewis Ferguson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €13M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.116 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Azzedine Ounahi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10300000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.526, "defenders": [ "Jack Hendry", "Aaron Hickey" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.513, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0652, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jack Hendry", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Aaron Hickey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Azzedine Ounahi (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jack Hendry and Aaron Hickey in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.065 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Neil El Aynaoui", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 22000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.65, "defenders": [ "Lewis Ferguson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.557, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "xg_contribution": 0.1602, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Ferguson", "role": "CM", "market_value": 13000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.538 } ], "duel_analysis": "Neil El Aynaoui (CDM) is evenly matched against Lewis Ferguson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.160 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.639, "away_midfield_power": 0.793, "home_creative_power": 0.595, "away_creative_power": 0.751, "home_defensive_power": 0.588, "away_defensive_power": 0.797, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.446, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 6, "home_midfield_players": [ "John McGinn", "Lewis Ferguson", "Scott McTominay", "Ben Gannon-Doak" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Brahim Díaz", "Neil El Aynaoui", "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "Azzedine Ounahi", "Bilal El Khannouss", "Ismael Saibari" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.0, "home_throughball_threat": 2.4, "away_throughball_threat": 2.9, "key_personal_duel": "Scott McTominay vs Ayyoub Bouaddi", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.978, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.02 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.07, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.712, "away_lambda": 2.318, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Che Adams": { "opponents": [ "Chadi Riad", "Issa Diop" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "John McGinn": { "opponents": [ "Achraf Hakimi", "Ayyoub Bouaddi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ben Gannon-Doak": { "opponents": [ "Noussair Mazraoui", "Bilal El Khannouss" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lewis Ferguson": { "opponents": [ "Neil El Aynaoui", "Brahim Díaz", "Ismael Saibari" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Grant Hanley": { "opponents": [ "Bilal El Khannouss" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Andy Robertson": { "opponents": [ "Ismael Saibari" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jack Hendry": { "opponents": [ "Azzedine Ounahi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aaron Hickey": { "opponents": [ "Azzedine Ounahi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Scott McTominay": { "opponents": [ "Neil El Aynaoui", "Azzedine Ounahi" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Angus Gunn": { "opponents": [ "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "Brahim Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Lawrence Shankland": { "opponents": [ "Achraf Hakimi", "Noussair Mazraoui" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Chadi Riad": { "opponents": [ "Che Adams" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Issa Diop": { "opponents": [ "Che Adams" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Achraf Hakimi": { "opponents": [ "John McGinn" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Noussair Mazraoui": { "opponents": [ "Ben Gannon-Doak" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Neil El Aynaoui": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Ferguson", "Scott McTominay" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bilal El Khannouss": { "opponents": [ "Grant Hanley", "Ben Gannon-Doak" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ismael Saibari": { "opponents": [ "Andy Robertson", "Lewis Ferguson" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Brahim Díaz": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Ferguson" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Azzedine Ounahi": { "opponents": [ "Jack Hendry", "Aaron Hickey", "Scott McTominay" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ayyoub Bouaddi": { "opponents": [ "John McGinn" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Bono": { "opponents": [ "Lawrence Shankland", "Che Adams" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Scott McTominay vs Ayyoub Bouaddi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 1.21. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0112, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0204, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.122, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1437, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9269, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9968, "home_midfield_factor": 0.978, "away_midfield_factor": 1.02, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5274, "away_avg_quality": 0.6875, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1601, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.9934, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.9057, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.7773, "elite_count_gap": -3, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2167, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.4768, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.3034, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0618, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0493, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.7118, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.3183, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 0.712, "final_away_lambda": 2.318 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-19T13:38:52Z" }