{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Tunisia", "away_team": "Japan", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260620", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1363, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1363 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.131 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1246 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1245 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0724 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1246, "0-1": 0.131, "0-2": 0.071, "0-3": 0.0254, "0-4": 0.0068, "0-5": 0.0015, "1-0": 0.1245, "1-1": 0.1363, "1-2": 0.0724, "1-3": 0.0259, "1-4": 0.0069, "1-5": 0.0015, "2-0": 0.0641, "2-1": 0.0688, "2-2": 0.0369, "2-3": 0.0132, "2-4": 0.0035, "2-5": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0218, "3-1": 0.0234, "3-2": 0.0126, "3-3": 0.0045, "3-4": 0.0012, "4-0": 0.0056, "4-1": 0.006, "4-2": 0.0032, "4-3": 0.0011, "5-0": 0.0011, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3351, "draw": 0.3027, "away_win": 0.3623 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3485, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6515, "btts_yes": 0.4221, "btts_no": 0.5779, "home_clean_sheet": 0.342, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 82.44, "MCR": 82.5, "ATR": 78.67, "GK": 90.67 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 84.09, "MCR": 85.07, "ATR": 83.77, "GK": 81.68 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Tunisia vs Japan. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Elias Saad, Daizen Maeda", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Hannibal Mejbri vs Takefusa Kubo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.23, Away: 0.61. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.073 }, "teams": { "Tunisia": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Aymen Dahmen": { "player_id": 1198374, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 188, "market_value": 720000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2944, "rating": 90.6724, "minutes": 90, "expected_saves": 1.29, "high_pressure_saves": 0.49, "shots_faced": 2.8, "opponent_faced": "Ayase Ueda, Ritsu Doan", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "fifa_overall": 84.0, "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2125, "combined_rank_score": 272.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, 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"interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 80.0703, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 46, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 2.9945, "dispossessed": 0.9982, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0129, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0334, "expected_assists": 0.02, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 122, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, 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"match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.0703, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Montassar Talbi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nazareno Colombo", "ranking": 15801 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Lefort", "ranking": 15802 }, { "player_name": "Anan Khalaili", "ranking": 15803 }, { "player_name": "Edwuin Cetré", "ranking": 15804 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Cataño", "ranking": 15805 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Igor", "ranking": 15807 }, { "player_name": "Gustavo Velázquez", "ranking": 15808 }, { "player_name": "Mojmír Chytil", "ranking": 15809 }, { "player_name": "Michael Keane", "ranking": 15810 }, { "player_name": "Yeremay", "ranking": 15811 } ] } } }, "Ali Abdi": { "player_id": 919027, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 183, "market_value": 2300000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, 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"Ayase Ueda", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "fifa_overall": 76.0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1629 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16198895, "match_date": "2026-05-26", "home_team": "Saint-Étienne", "away_team": "Nice", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nice", "opponent": "Saint-Étienne", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14061909, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Nice", "away_team": "Metz", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nice", "opponent": "Metz", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4666, "expected_assists": 0.1394, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14064519, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Auxerre", "away_team": "Nice", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nice", "opponent": "Auxerre", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0229, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 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"stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065251, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "VfL Wolfsburg", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "VfL Wolfsburg", "opponent": "FC Bayern München", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1263, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 19611, "combined_rank_score": 5102.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 10014.0, "fifa_overall": 66.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.4925, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kento Shiogai", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jack Iredale", "ranking": 19606 }, { "player_name": "Nachon Nsingi", "ranking": 19607 }, { "player_name": "Mahamadou Nagida", "ranking": 19608 }, { "player_name": "Mattie Pollock", "ranking": 19609 }, { "player_name": "Liam Lindsay", "ranking": 19610 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Shane Duffy", "ranking": 19612 }, { "player_name": "Maximilian Bauer", "ranking": 19613 }, { "player_name": "Yan Diomande", "ranking": 19614 }, { "player_name": "Marcel Franke", "ranking": 19615 }, { "player_name": "Villads Nielsen", "ranking": 19616 } ] } } }, "Keisuke Goto": { "player_id": 1391315, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 42, "height": 191, "market_value": 7400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.0002, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 62.6291, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 2.0494, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0961, "offsides": 3, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "fifa_overall": 56.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15858569, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sint-Truidense VV", "away_team": "KV Mechelen", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sint-Truidense VV", "opponent": "KV Mechelen", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0153, "expected_assists": 0.009, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Pro League", "league_id": "38", "league_slug": "pro-league", "league_country": "Belgium", "season_id": "77040", "season_name": "Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15858579, "match_date": "2026-05-21", "home_team": "RSC Anderlecht", "away_team": "Sint-Truidense VV", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sint-Truidense VV", "opponent": "RSC Anderlecht", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3039, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Pro League", "league_id": "38", "league_slug": "pro-league", "league_country": "Belgium", "season_id": "77040", "season_name": "Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15858577, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "Sint-Truidense VV", "away_team": "KAA Gent", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sint-Truidense VV", "opponent": "KAA Gent", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7506, "expected_assists": 0.0782, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Pro League", "league_id": "38", "league_slug": "pro-league", "league_country": "Belgium", "season_id": "77040", "season_name": "Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15858563, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Club Brugge KV", "away_team": "Sint-Truidense VV", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sint-Truidense VV", "opponent": "Club Brugge KV", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0402, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Pro League", "league_id": "38", "league_slug": "pro-league", "league_country": "Belgium", "season_id": "77040", "season_name": "Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 23180, "combined_rank_score": 8527.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 16856.0, "fifa_overall": 56.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6291, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Keisuke Goto", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Diego Rosa", "ranking": 23175 }, { "player_name": "Tibault Citherlet", "ranking": 23176 }, { "player_name": "Ehije Ukaki", "ranking": 23177 }, { "player_name": "Haitham Asiri", "ranking": 23178 }, { "player_name": "Martin Männel", "ranking": 23179 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Peter Abrahamsson", "ranking": 23181 }, { "player_name": "Jop Tijink", "ranking": 23182 }, { "player_name": "Telli Siwe", "ranking": 23183 }, { "player_name": "Lionel Mpasi", "ranking": 23184 }, { "player_name": "Oscar Johansson Schellhas", "ranking": 23185 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.07, "expected_assists": 0.68, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 7, "total_passes": 396, "interceptions": 13, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 84.26, "possession_estimated_pct": 52.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Hannibal Mejbri", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 16700000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.597, "defenders": [ "Daichi Kamada" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.55, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.453, "xg_contribution": 0.0414, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Daichi Kamada", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 12400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.547 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hannibal Mejbri (LW) is evenly matched against Daichi Kamada in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Sebastian Tounekti", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 6500000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.481, "defenders": [ "Ritsu Doan" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.586, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.385, "xg_contribution": 0.0277, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ritsu Doan", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 15600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.615 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sebastian Tounekti (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Ritsu Doan in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.028 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ismael Gharbi", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 4800000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.46, "defenders": [ "Takefusa Kubo", "Yuito Suzuki" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.671, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.199, "xg_contribution": 0.0445, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Takefusa Kubo", "role": "CM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.801 }, { "player": "Yuito Suzuki", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 18600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.801 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ismael Gharbi (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Takefusa Kubo and Yuito Suzuki in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €25M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.045 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Elias Saad", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.434, "defenders": [ "Hiroki Itō", "Tsuyoshi Watanabe" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.572, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1081, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hiroki Itō", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Tsuyoshi Watanabe", "role": "CB", "market_value": 9300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Elias Saad (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Hiroki Itō and Tsuyoshi Watanabe in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.108 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ellyes Skhiri", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Takefusa Kubo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.327, "xg_contribution": 0.0124, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Takefusa Kubo", "role": "CM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.673 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ellyes Skhiri (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Takefusa Kubo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €31M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.012 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ayase Ueda", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 14600000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.575, "defenders": [ "Montassar Talbi", "Ali Abdi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.461, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.233, "xg_contribution": 0.1721, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Montassar Talbi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.767 }, { "player": "Ali Abdi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.767 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ayase Ueda (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Montassar Talbi and Ali Abdi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Projected xG contribution: 0.172 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ritsu Doan", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 15600000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.586, "defenders": [ "Adem Arous" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.412, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.418, "xg_contribution": 0.1441, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adem Arous", "role": "RB", "market_value": 970000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.582 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ritsu Doan (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Adem Arous in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.144 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Daichi Kamada", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 12400000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.55, "defenders": [ "Yan Valery" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.416, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.452, "xg_contribution": 0.0748, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yan Valery", "role": "LB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.548 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daichi Kamada (RWB) is evenly matched against Yan Valery in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.075 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Takefusa Kubo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Ellyes Skhiri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.523, "xg_contribution": 0.0833, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ellyes Skhiri", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.477 } ], "duel_analysis": "Takefusa Kubo (CM) is slightly favored against Ellyes Skhiri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€31M vs €5M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.083 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Yuito Suzuki", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 18600000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.617, "defenders": [ "Ellyes Skhiri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.449, "xg_contribution": 0.1396, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ellyes Skhiri", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.551 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yuito Suzuki (CDM) is evenly matched against Ellyes Skhiri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.140 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.54, "away_midfield_power": 0.683, "home_creative_power": 0.467, "away_creative_power": 0.58, "home_defensive_power": 0.428, "away_defensive_power": 0.654, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.442, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Hannibal Mejbri", "Sebastian Tounekti", "Ellyes Skhiri", "Ismael Gharbi", "Elias Achouri" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Takefusa Kubo", "Kaishu Sano", "Yuito Suzuki", "Ritsu Doan", "Daichi Kamada" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 47.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 52.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.0, "home_throughball_threat": 2.0, "away_throughball_threat": 2.3, "key_personal_duel": "Hannibal Mejbri vs Takefusa Kubo", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.975, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.023 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.06, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.06, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.073, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "CAM vs CM + CDM" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Hannibal Mejbri": { "opponents": [ "Daichi Kamada", "Ritsu Doan" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sebastian Tounekti": { "opponents": [ "Ritsu Doan", "Daichi Kamada" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ismael Gharbi": { "opponents": [ "Takefusa Kubo", "Yuito Suzuki" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Elias Saad": { "opponents": [ "Hiroki Itō", "Tsuyoshi Watanabe" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ellyes Skhiri": { "opponents": [ "Takefusa Kubo", "Yuito Suzuki" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Montassar Talbi": { "opponents": [ "Ayase Ueda" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ali Abdi": { "opponents": [ "Ayase Ueda" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Adem Arous": { "opponents": [ "Ritsu Doan" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Yan Valery": { "opponents": [ "Daichi Kamada" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Elias Achouri": { "opponents": [ "Kaishu Sano" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Aymen Dahmen": { "opponents": [ "Daizen Maeda", "Ayase Ueda" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Daichi Kamada": { "opponents": [ "Hannibal Mejbri", "Yan Valery", "Sebastian Tounekti" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ritsu Doan": { "opponents": [ "Sebastian Tounekti", "Adem Arous", "Hannibal Mejbri" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Takefusa Kubo": { "opponents": [ "Ismael Gharbi", "Ellyes Skhiri" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yuito Suzuki": { "opponents": [ "Ismael Gharbi", "Ellyes Skhiri" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hiroki Itō": { "opponents": [ "Elias Saad" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tsuyoshi Watanabe": { "opponents": [ "Elias Saad" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ayase Ueda": { "opponents": [ "Montassar Talbi", "Ali Abdi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kaishu Sano": { "opponents": [ "Elias Achouri" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Zion Suzuki": { "opponents": [ "Elias Saad", "Elias Achouri" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ko Itakura": { "opponents": [ "Elias Saad" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Daizen Maeda": { "opponents": [ "Montassar Talbi", "Ali Abdi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Hannibal Mejbri vs Takefusa Kubo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.23, Away: 0.61. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0223, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.098, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.108, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9726, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0112, "home_midfield_factor": 0.975, "away_midfield_factor": 1.023, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4634, "away_avg_quality": 0.5938, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1303, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.0584, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.8679, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.0413, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2554, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1405, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0817, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.078, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0372, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.728, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.073, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.728, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.0732, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 1.073 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-12T13:38:12Z" }