{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Netherlands", "away_team": "Sweden", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260620", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "3-1-4-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1177, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1177 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1111 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0957 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0912 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0712 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0688, "0-1": 0.0712, "0-2": 0.0376, "0-3": 0.0132, "0-4": 0.0035, "0-5": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.1111, "1-1": 0.1177, "1-2": 0.0615, "1-3": 0.0215, "1-4": 0.0057, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0912, "2-1": 0.0957, "2-2": 0.0503, "2-3": 0.0176, "2-4": 0.0046, "2-5": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0497, "3-1": 0.0521, "3-2": 0.0274, "3-3": 0.0096, "3-4": 0.0025, "3-5": 0.0005, "4-0": 0.0203, "4-1": 0.0213, "4-2": 0.0112, "4-3": 0.0039, "4-4": 0.001, "5-0": 0.0066, "5-1": 0.007, "5-2": 0.0037, "5-3": 0.0013, "6-0": 0.0018, "6-1": 0.0019, "6-2": 0.001 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5093, "draw": 0.2475, "away_win": 0.2432 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5024, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4976, "btts_yes": 0.5237, "btts_no": 0.4763, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3499, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1951 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 91.25, "MCR": 89.94, "ATR": 85.82, "GK": 84.26 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 82.52, "MCR": 82.29, "ATR": 87.15, "GK": 78.34 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Netherlands vs Sweden. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Donyell Malen, Viktor Gyökeres", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 3-1-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~51% possession expected (Ryan Gravenberch vs Yasin Ayari). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.71, Away: 0.68. Home danger zone: LW vs CB. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.75, "home_lambda": 1.634, "away_lambda": 1.05 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5093, "draw": 0.2475, "away_win": 0.2432 }, "favorite": "Netherlands", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5093, "fair_spread": 0.584, "fair_total": 2.684, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Netherlands", "estimate": 1.634, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sweden", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5024, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5237, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Netherlands", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3499, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sweden", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1951, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Donyell Malen (Netherlands)", "estimate": 0.402, "probability": 0.281, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Viktor Gyökeres (Sweden)", "estimate": 0.4034, "probability": 0.2892, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Crysencio Summerville (Netherlands)", "estimate": 0.2874, "probability": 0.2393, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Viktor Gyökeres (Sweden)", "estimate": 0.0977, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.684, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 847, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.5, "possession_home_pct": 51.0, "possession_away_pct": 49.0, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Netherlands", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5093, "script": "Netherlands is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.58 goals and fair total 2.68.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Sweden must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Netherlands lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Sweden chance creation leans on Viktor Gyökeres against Virgil van Dijk, Micky van de Ven in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Netherlands: starters carry the main goal usage through Donyell Malen; bench watchlist: Jurriën Timber, Xavi Simons, Frenkie de Jong.", "Sweden: starters carry the main goal usage through Viktor Gyökeres; bench watchlist: Lucas Bergvall, Anthony Elanga, Hugo Larsson.", "Assist usage should flow through Crysencio Summerville; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Netherlands tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.34 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Sweden is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Netherlands.", "Sweden wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Netherlands": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Bart Verbruggen": { "player_id": 994363, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 193, "market_value": 37000000, "stats": { "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 84.2566, "minutes": 92, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 14, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 43, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.0792, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 9.4973, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "expected_saves": 1.44, "high_pressure_saves": 0.55, "shots_faced": 3.1, "opponent_faced": "Viktor Gyökeres, Victor Lindelöf", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186945, "match_date": "2026-06-14", "home_team": "Netherlands", "away_team": "Japan", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Netherlands", "opponent": "Japan", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.6757 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -0.8221 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 20, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.1713 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023935, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 28, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0899 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233683, "match_date": "2025-11-17", "home_team": "Netherlands", "away_team": "Lithuania", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Netherlands", "opponent": "Lithuania", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 14850, "combined_rank_score": 728.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 456.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8667, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 1001.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.2566, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Bart Verbruggen", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Hicham Boudaoui", "ranking": 14845 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Araújo", "ranking": 14846 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Strefezza", "ranking": 14847 }, { "player_name": "Ali Auglah", "ranking": 14848 }, { "player_name": "Ibrokhim Ibrokhimov", "ranking": 14849 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Florentino", "ranking": 14851 }, { "player_name": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "ranking": 14852 }, { "player_name": "Min-sik Kim", "ranking": 14853 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Carrillo", "ranking": 14854 }, { "player_name": "Igor Nikić", "ranking": 14855 } ] } } }, "Cody Gakpo": { "player_id": 862967, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 193, "market_value": 58000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1231, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1827, "rating": 91.5029, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 30, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "fouls_drawn": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gabriel Gudmundsson, Isak Hien", "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson, Isak Hien", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0529, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.122, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186945, "match_date": "2026-06-14", "home_team": "Netherlands", "away_team": "Japan", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Netherlands", "opponent": "Japan", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1952, "expected_assists": 0.1286, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023962, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.209, "expected_assists": 0.0502, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023928, "match_date": "2026-05-15", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5338, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632087, "match_date": "2026-04-14", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0439, "expected_assists": 0.1769, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632083, "match_date": "2026-04-08", "home_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631369, "match_date": "2026-03-18", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Galatasaray", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Galatasaray", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631351, "match_date": "2026-03-10", "home_team": "Galatasaray", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Galatasaray", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1005, "expected_assists": 0.0981, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233683, "match_date": "2025-11-17", "home_team": "Netherlands", "away_team": "Lithuania", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Netherlands", "opponent": "Lithuania", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 8.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 136, "combined_rank_score": 114.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 21.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.0375, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 207.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.5029, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Cody Gakpo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kacper Potulski", "ranking": 131 }, { "player_name": "Luis Díaz", "ranking": 132 }, { "player_name": "Federico Dimarco", "ranking": 133 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Mac Allister", "ranking": 134 }, { "player_name": "Bremer", "ranking": 135 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": 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"shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632089, "match_date": "2026-04-14", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0221, "expected_assists": 0.2361, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233688, "match_date": "2025-11-18", "home_team": "Sweden", "away_team": "Slovenia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sweden", "opponent": "Slovenia", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 19647, "combined_rank_score": 3758.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 663.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6944, "sofascore_appearances": 21.0, "fifa_rank": 6854.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7185, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Roony Bardghji", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alaa Bellaarouch", "ranking": 19642 }, { "player_name": "Édier Ocampo", "ranking": 19643 }, { "player_name": "Besard Sabović", "ranking": 19644 }, { "player_name": "Moussa Sissoko", "ranking": 19645 }, { "player_name": "Martin Linnes", "ranking": 19646 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Marcel Schuhen", "ranking": 19648 }, { "player_name": "Lukas Lerager", "ranking": 19649 }, { "player_name": "Clemens Riedel", "ranking": 19650 }, { "player_name": "Leandro Brey", "ranking": 19651 }, { "player_name": "Davíð Kristján Ólafsson", "ranking": 19652 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.05, "expected_assists": 0.48, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 7, "total_passes": 351, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 83.78, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ryan Gravenberch", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 87000000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.887, "defenders": [ "Jesper Karlström" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.69, "xg_contribution": 0.0735, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jesper Karlström", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.31 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryan Gravenberch (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Jesper Karlström in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 69%. The quality gap is significant (€87M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.074 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Tijjani Reijnders", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Jesper Karlström" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.639, "xg_contribution": 0.0674, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jesper Karlström", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.361 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tijjani Reijnders (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Jesper Karlström in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 64%. The quality gap is significant (€48M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.067 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Donyell Malen", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "xg_contribution": 0.337, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.521 } ], "duel_analysis": "Donyell Malen (LW) is evenly matched against Gabriel Gudmundsson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. The quality gap is significant (€48M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.337 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Cody Gakpo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "Isak Hien" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "xg_contribution": 0.1305, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679 }, { "player": "Isak Hien", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cody Gakpo (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Gabriel Gudmundsson and Isak Hien in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.131 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Teun Koopmeiners", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 13200000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.559, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.391, "xg_contribution": 0.1052, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.609 } ], "duel_analysis": "Teun Koopmeiners (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Gabriel Gudmundsson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.105 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Viktor Gyökeres", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 61000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.855, "defenders": [ "Virgil van Dijk", "Micky van de Ven" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.703, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.24, "xg_contribution": 0.3926, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Virgil van Dijk", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.76 }, { "player": "Micky van de Ven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.76 } ], "duel_analysis": "Viktor Gyökeres (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Virgil van Dijk and Micky van de Ven in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€61M vs €32M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.393 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Yasin Ayari", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Denzel Dumfries" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.421, "xg_contribution": 0.0478, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Denzel Dumfries", "role": "RB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.579 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yasin Ayari (LM) is evenly matched against Denzel Dumfries in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.048 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Victor Lindelöf", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 4800000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.46, "defenders": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.821, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.29, "xg_contribution": 0.1101, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "role": "LB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.71 } ], "duel_analysis": "Victor Lindelöf (RM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jan Paul van Hecke in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €49M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.110 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Benjamin Nygren", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 13600000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.564, "defenders": [ "Ryan Gravenberch" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.887, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.25, "xg_contribution": 0.0905, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ryan Gravenberch", "role": "CM", "market_value": 87000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.75 } ], "duel_analysis": "Benjamin Nygren (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ryan Gravenberch in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€14M vs €87M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.090 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jesper Karlström", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 4099999, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.451, "defenders": [ "Crysencio Summerville" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.77, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "xg_contribution": 0.0429, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Crysencio Summerville", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 38000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.703 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jesper Karlström (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Crysencio Summerville in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €38M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.836, "away_midfield_power": 0.567, "home_creative_power": 0.847, "away_creative_power": 0.383, "home_defensive_power": 0.475, "away_defensive_power": 0.613, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.596, "home_midfield_count": 6, "away_midfield_count": 2, "home_midfield_players": [ "Cody Gakpo", "Crysencio Summerville", "Tijjani Reijnders", "Teun Koopmeiners", "Ryan Gravenberch", "Denzel Dumfries" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Yasin Ayari", "Jesper Karlström" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "home_throughball_threat": 3.1, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Ryan Gravenberch vs Yasin Ayari", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.032, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.971 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "3-1-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 3-1-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.634, "away_lambda": 1.05, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "LW vs CB", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Ryan Gravenberch": { "opponents": [ "Jesper Karlström", "Benjamin Nygren", "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tijjani Reijnders": { "opponents": [ "Jesper Karlström" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Donyell Malen": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Cody Gakpo": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "Isak Hien", "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Teun Koopmeiners": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "Jesper Karlström" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Virgil van Dijk": { "opponents": [ "Viktor Gyökeres" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Micky van de Ven": { "opponents": [ "Viktor Gyökeres" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Denzel Dumfries": { "opponents": [ "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jan Paul van Hecke": { "opponents": [ "Victor Lindelöf" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Crysencio Summerville": { "opponents": [ "Jesper Karlström" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bart Verbruggen": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Isak", "Alexander Bernhardsson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jesper Karlström": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Gravenberch", "Tijjani Reijnders", "Crysencio Summerville", "Teun Koopmeiners" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gabriel Gudmundsson": { "opponents": [ "Donyell Malen", "Cody Gakpo", "Teun Koopmeiners" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Isak Hien": { "opponents": [ "Cody Gakpo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Viktor Gyökeres": { "opponents": [ "Virgil van Dijk", "Micky van de Ven" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yasin Ayari": { "opponents": [ "Denzel Dumfries", "Ryan Gravenberch", "Cody Gakpo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Victor Lindelöf": { "opponents": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Benjamin Nygren": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Gravenberch" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kristoffer Nordfeldt": { "opponents": [ "Donyell Malen", "Tijjani Reijnders" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Gustaf Lagerbielke": { "opponents": [ "Donyell Malen" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Alexander Isak": { "opponents": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke", "Micky van de Ven" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Alexander Bernhardsson": { "opponents": [ "Virgil van Dijk", "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~51% possession expected (Ryan Gravenberch vs Yasin Ayari). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.71, Away: 0.68. Home danger zone: LW vs CB. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.025, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8767, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9622, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9095, "home_midfield_factor": 1.032, "away_midfield_factor": 0.971, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7609, "away_avg_quality": 0.6198, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1412, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.4955, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.2561, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.4375, "elite_count_gap": 4, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1685, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3707, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2359, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0983, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0249, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.634, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.675, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.6343, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.6749, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.634, "final_away_lambda": 1.05 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-20T13:37:21Z" }