{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Uruguay", "away_team": "Cabo Verde", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260621", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1109, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1109 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.105 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0981 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0934 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.062 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0596, "0-1": 0.062, "0-2": 0.0327, "0-3": 0.0114, "0-4": 0.003, "0-5": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.105, "1-1": 0.1109, "1-2": 0.058, "1-3": 0.0203, "1-4": 0.0053, "1-5": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.0934, "2-1": 0.0981, "2-2": 0.0515, "2-3": 0.018, "2-4": 0.0047, "2-5": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0553, "3-1": 0.058, "3-2": 0.0305, "3-3": 0.0107, "3-4": 0.0028, "3-5": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0245, "4-1": 0.0258, "4-2": 0.0135, "4-3": 0.0047, "4-4": 0.0012, "5-0": 0.0087, "5-1": 0.0091, "5-2": 0.0048, "5-3": 0.0017, "6-0": 0.0026, "6-1": 0.0027, "6-2": 0.0014, "7-0": 0.0007, "7-1": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5433, "draw": 0.234, "away_win": 0.2227 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5365, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4635, "btts_yes": 0.5402, "btts_no": 0.4598, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3499, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1695 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 86.41, "MCR": 89.87, "ATR": 78.51, "GK": 85.46 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 86.33, "MCR": 82.59, "ATR": 82.56, "GK": 90.55 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Uruguay vs Cabo Verde. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Federico Valverde, Dailon Rocha Livramento", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Federico Valverde vs Kevin Lenini). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 0.24. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel." }, "confidence": 0.77, "home_lambda": 1.775, "away_lambda": 1.05 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5433, "draw": 0.234, "away_win": 0.2227 }, "favorite": "Uruguay", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5433, "fair_spread": 0.725, "fair_total": 2.825, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Uruguay", "estimate": 1.775, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Cabo Verde", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5365, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5402, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Uruguay", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3499, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Cabo Verde", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1695, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Federico Viñas (Uruguay)", "estimate": 0.4628, "probability": 0.1623, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Diney Borges (Cabo Verde)", "estimate": 0.4309, "probability": 0.1839, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Maximiliano Araújo (Uruguay)", "estimate": 0.3161, "probability": 0.1423, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jovane Cabral (Cabo Verde)", "estimate": 0.0551, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.825, "expected_total_shots": 29, "expected_total_passes": 784, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.7, "possession_home_pct": 53.1, "possession_away_pct": 46.9, "notes": "Uruguay projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Uruguay", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5433, "script": "Uruguay is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.72 goals and fair total 2.83.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Cabo Verde must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Uruguay lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Uruguay chance creation leans on Federico Viñas against Sidny Lopes Cabral in Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle; Uruguay projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Uruguay: starters carry the main goal usage through Federico Valverde; bench watchlist: Rodrigo Zalazar, Manuel Ugarte, Darwin Núñez.", "Cabo Verde: starters carry the main goal usage through Dailon Rocha Livramento; bench watchlist: Logan Costa, Wagner Pina, Telmo Arcanjo.", "Assist usage should flow through Nicolás de la Cruz; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Uruguay tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.41 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Cabo Verde is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Uruguay.", "Cabo Verde wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Uruguay": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Maximiliano Araújo": { "player_id": 929193, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 179, "market_value": 32000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 84.4657, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 69, "possession_lost": 12.8353, "dispossessed": 1.337, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 1.0209, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2693, "expected_assists": 0.3161, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "xgot": 0.3637, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 95, "progressive_carries": 3, "key_pass": 4, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.676, "opponent_faced": "Jovane Cabral", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0842, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1423, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186811, "match_date": "2026-06-15", "home_team": "Saudi Arabia", "away_team": "Uruguay", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Uruguay", "opponent": "Saudi Arabia", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2362, "expected_assists": 0.3829, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 5, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14288901, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "Sporting CP", "away_team": "Gil Vicente", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sporting CP", "opponent": "Gil Vicente", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0206, "expected_assists": 0.0325, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 7, "tackles_won": 5, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Liga Portugal Betclic", "league_id": "238", "league_slug": "liga-portugal-betclic", "league_country": "Portugal", "season_id": "77806", "season_name": "Liga Portugal 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14288896, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Rio Ave", "away_team": "Sporting CP", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sporting CP", "opponent": "Rio Ave", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0984, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Liga Portugal Betclic", "league_id": "238", "league_slug": "liga-portugal-betclic", "league_country": "Portugal", "season_id": "77806", "season_name": "Liga Portugal 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14288884, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Sporting CP", "away_team": "Vitória SC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sporting CP", "opponent": "Vitória SC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6564, "expected_assists": 0.0503, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Liga Portugal Betclic", "league_id": "238", "league_slug": "liga-portugal-betclic", "league_country": "Portugal", "season_id": "77806", "season_name": "Liga Portugal 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 16033937, "match_date": "2026-04-29", "home_team": "Sporting CP", "away_team": "Tondela", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sporting CP", "opponent": "Tondela", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1579, "expected_assists": 0.57, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 56, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Liga Portugal Betclic", "league_id": "238", "league_slug": "liga-portugal-betclic", "league_country": "Portugal", "season_id": "77806", "season_name": "Liga Portugal 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632631, "match_date": "2026-04-15", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Sporting CP", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sporting CP", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0821, "expected_assists": 0.0969, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 5, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632086, "match_date": "2026-04-07", "home_team": "Sporting CP", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sporting CP", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1512, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 9, "tackles_won": 7, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13856228, "match_date": "2025-06-10", "home_team": "Uruguay", "away_team": "Venezuela", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Uruguay", "opponent": "Venezuela", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assists": 1, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13856220, "match_date": "2025-06-05", "home_team": "Paraguay", "away_team": "Uruguay", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Uruguay", "opponent": "Paraguay", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13129494, "match_date": "2025-03-25", "home_team": "Bolivia", "away_team": "Uruguay", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Uruguay", "opponent": "Bolivia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 14846, "combined_rank_score": 727.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 132.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3167, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 1322.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.4657, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Maximiliano Araújo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Warren Zaïre-Emery", "ranking": 14841 }, { "player_name": "Emiliano Buendía", "ranking": 14842 }, { "player_name": "Sergi Cardona", "ranking": 14843 }, { "player_name": "Adrián Martínez", "ranking": 14844 }, { "player_name": "Hicham Boudaoui", "ranking": 14845 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gabriel Strefezza", "ranking": 14847 }, { "player_name": "Ali Auglah", "ranking": 14848 }, { "player_name": "Ibrokhim Ibrokhimov", "ranking": 14849 }, { "player_name": "Bart Verbruggen", "ranking": 14850 }, { "player_name": "Florentino", "ranking": 14851 } ] } } }, "Federico Viñas": { "player_id": 976104, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 180, "market_value": 3600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4628, "goal_rate": 0.0003, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0522, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 78.5061, "minutes": 75, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 10, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 6.1466, "dispossessed": 1.9669, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 15, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.493, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sidny Lopes Cabral", "opponent_faced": "Sidny Lopes Cabral", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1623, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0231, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186811, "match_date": "2026-06-15", "home_team": "Saudi Arabia", "away_team": "Uruguay", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Uruguay", "opponent": "Saudi Arabia", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.502, "expected_assists": 0.0734, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 11, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Oviedo", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0974, "expected_assists": 0.0097, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083649, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Oviedo", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1124, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14169222, 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1502 }, { "player_name": "Joshua Nga Kana", "ranking": 1503 }, { "player_name": "Juan Jose Arias", "ranking": 1504 }, { "player_name": "Rúben Ramos Ismael", "ranking": 1505 } ] } } }, "Gilson Tavares": { "player_id": 1111215, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 175, "market_value": 1200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1398, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 88.6724, "minutes": 25, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "key_pass": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1862, "combined_rank_score": 326.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 380.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6724, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Benchimol", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Tommy Setford", "ranking": 1857 }, { "player_name": "Milad Mohammadi", "ranking": 1858 }, { "player_name": "Odiljon Khamrobekov", "ranking": 1859 }, { "player_name": "Flavio Goncalves", "ranking": 1860 }, { "player_name": "Lebo Mothiba", "ranking": 1861 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mauricio González", "ranking": 1863 }, { "player_name": "Diney Borges", "ranking": 1864 }, { "player_name": "Hayato Tanaka", "ranking": 1865 }, { "player_name": "Micky van de Ven", "ranking": 1866 }, { "player_name": "Alex Fernandes", "ranking": 1867 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.05, "expected_assists": 0.29, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 274, "interceptions": 13, "tackles": 18, "avg_rating": 84.67, "possession_estimated_pct": 46.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Federico Viñas", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Sidny Lopes Cabral" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.493, "xg_contribution": 0.3998, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sidny Lopes Cabral", "role": "RB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.507 } ], "duel_analysis": "Federico Viñas (LW) is evenly matched against Sidny Lopes Cabral in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.400 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Guillermo Varela", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 1300000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.416, "defenders": [ "Steven Moreira" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.419, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.443, "xg_contribution": 0.0392, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Steven Moreira", "role": "LB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.557 } ], "duel_analysis": "Guillermo Varela (RW) is evenly matched against Steven Moreira in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.039 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Agustín Canobbio", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 8199999, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.501, "defenders": [ "Diney Borges", "Pico" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.407, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.2, "xg_contribution": 0.0483, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Diney Borges", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.8 }, { "player": "Pico", "role": "CB", "market_value": 260000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.8 } ], "duel_analysis": "Agustín Canobbio (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Diney Borges and Pico in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Projected xG contribution: 0.048 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Rodrigo Bentancur", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 19300000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.624, "defenders": [ "Jamiro Monteiro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.407, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.566, "xg_contribution": 0.1724, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jamiro Monteiro", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 590000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.434 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rodrigo Bentancur (CDM) is slightly favored against Jamiro Monteiro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.172 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Nicolás de la Cruz", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 167, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Jamiro Monteiro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.407, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.461, "xg_contribution": 0.1273, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jamiro Monteiro", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 590000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.539 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nicolás de la Cruz (CM) is evenly matched against Jamiro Monteiro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.127 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ryan Mendes", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 220000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.403, "defenders": [ "Juan Sanabria" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.447, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "xg_contribution": 0.0304, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Juan Sanabria", "role": "RB", "market_value": 3800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryan Mendes (LW) is evenly matched against Juan Sanabria in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.030 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jovane Cabral", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 910000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.411, "defenders": [ "Maximiliano Araújo" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.732, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.324, "xg_contribution": 0.0077, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Maximiliano Araújo", "role": "LB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.676 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jovane Cabral (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Maximiliano Araújo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €32M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.008 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Laros Duarte", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 1000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.412, "defenders": [ "Rodrigo Bentancur" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.624, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "xg_contribution": 0.1372, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rodrigo Bentancur", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 19300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.663 } ], "duel_analysis": "Laros Duarte (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Rodrigo Bentancur in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €19M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.137 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Dailon Rocha Livramento", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 775000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.41, "defenders": [ "Mathías Olivera", "Sebastián Cáceres" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.512, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.013, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mathías Olivera", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Sebastián Cáceres", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dailon Rocha Livramento (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Mathías Olivera and Sebastián Cáceres in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.013 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jamiro Monteiro", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 590000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.407, "defenders": [ "Nicolás de la Cruz" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.503, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.389, "xg_contribution": 0.0471, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 1, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nicolás de la Cruz", "role": "CM", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.611 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jamiro Monteiro (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Nicolás de la Cruz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.654, "away_midfield_power": 0.446, "home_creative_power": 0.621, "away_creative_power": 0.362, "home_defensive_power": 0.62, "away_defensive_power": 0.388, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.595, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Agustín Canobbio", "Nicolás de la Cruz", "Federico Valverde", "Rodrigo Bentancur" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Jamiro Monteiro", "Ryan Mendes", "Laros Duarte", "Kevin Lenini" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 53.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 46.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.2, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.7, "home_throughball_threat": 2.5, "away_throughball_threat": 1.7, "key_personal_duel": "Federico Valverde vs Kevin Lenini", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.037, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.961 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.775, "away_lambda": 1.05, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "CDM vs CDM" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Federico Viñas": { "opponents": [ "Sidny Lopes Cabral" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Guillermo Varela": { "opponents": [ "Steven Moreira" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Agustín Canobbio": { "opponents": [ "Diney Borges", "Pico", "Ryan Mendes" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rodrigo Bentancur": { "opponents": [ "Jamiro Monteiro", "Laros Duarte" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nicolás de la Cruz": { "opponents": [ "Jamiro Monteiro" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Juan Sanabria": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Mendes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Maximiliano Araújo": { "opponents": [ "Jovane Cabral" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mathías Olivera": { "opponents": [ "Dailon Rocha Livramento" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sebastián Cáceres": { "opponents": [ "Dailon Rocha Livramento" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Federico Valverde": { "opponents": [ "Kevin Lenini" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Fernando Muslera": { "opponents": [ "Jovane Cabral", "Dailon Rocha Livramento" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Sidny Lopes Cabral": { "opponents": [ "Federico Viñas" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Steven Moreira": { "opponents": [ "Guillermo Varela" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Diney Borges": { "opponents": [ "Agustín Canobbio" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pico": { "opponents": [ "Agustín Canobbio" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jamiro Monteiro": { "opponents": [ "Rodrigo Bentancur", "Nicolás de la Cruz" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ryan Mendes": { "opponents": [ "Juan Sanabria", "Agustín Canobbio" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jovane Cabral": { "opponents": [ "Maximiliano Araújo" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Laros Duarte": { "opponents": [ "Rodrigo Bentancur" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dailon Rocha Livramento": { "opponents": [ "Mathías Olivera", "Sebastián Cáceres" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kevin Lenini": { "opponents": [ "Federico Valverde" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Vozinha": { "opponents": [ "Federico Viñas", "Federico Valverde" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Federico Valverde vs Kevin Lenini). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 0.24. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0258, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0227, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.01, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.021, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0118, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9518, "home_midfield_factor": 1.037, "away_midfield_factor": 0.961, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5581, "away_avg_quality": 0.4189, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1392, "squad_value_gap_log": 2.0323, "top5_value_gap_log": 2.0324, "attack_value_gap_log": 2.0837, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2849, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.6268, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.3989, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0719, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0699, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.775, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.72, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.7749, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7199, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.775, "final_away_lambda": 1.05 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-21T13:31:26Z" }