{ "match_info": { "home_team": "New Zealand", "away_team": "Egypt", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260621", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1153, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1153 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1089 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0967 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0921 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0677 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0654, "0-1": 0.1089, "0-2": 0.0921, "0-3": 0.0517, "0-4": 0.0218, "0-5": 0.0073, "0-6": 0.0021, "1-0": 0.0677, "1-1": 0.1153, "1-2": 0.0967, "1-3": 0.0543, "1-4": 0.0229, "1-5": 0.0077, "1-6": 0.0022, "1-7": 0.0005, "2-0": 0.0358, "2-1": 0.0603, "2-2": 0.0508, "2-3": 0.0285, "2-4": 0.012, "2-5": 0.004, "2-6": 0.0011, "3-0": 0.0125, "3-1": 0.0211, "3-2": 0.0178, "3-3": 0.01, "3-4": 0.0042, "3-5": 0.0014, "4-0": 0.0033, "4-1": 0.0055, "4-2": 0.0047, "4-3": 0.0026, "4-4": 0.0011, "5-0": 0.0007, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.001, "5-3": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2356, "draw": 0.2426, "away_win": 0.5218 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5149, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4851, "btts_yes": 0.53, "btts_no": 0.47, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1854, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3499 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 73.61, "MCR": 78.16, "ATR": 88.47, "GK": 71.65 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 88.2, "MCR": 90.35, "ATR": 91.3, "GK": 89.27 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for New Zealand vs Egypt. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Elijah Just, Omar Marmoush", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Joe Bell vs Mohamed Salah will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.74, Away: 1.01. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.76, "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.685 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2356, "draw": 0.2426, "away_win": 0.5218 }, "favorite": "Egypt", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5218, "fair_spread": -0.635, "fair_total": 2.735, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "New Zealand", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Egypt", "estimate": 1.685, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5149, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.53, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "New Zealand", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1854, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Egypt", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3499, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Finn Surman (New Zealand)", "estimate": 0.3873, "probability": 0.0764, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Omar Marmoush (Egypt)", "estimate": 0.5208, "probability": 0.4136, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Elijah Just (New Zealand)", "estimate": 0.1027, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ahmed Fatouh (Egypt)", "estimate": 0.1498, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.735, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 836, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.7, "possession_home_pct": 49.3, "possession_away_pct": 50.7, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Egypt", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5218, "script": "Egypt is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.64 goals and fair total 2.73.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; New Zealand must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Egypt lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Egypt chance creation leans on Omar Marmoush against Michael Boxall, Finn Surman in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "New Zealand: starters carry the main goal usage through Elijah Just; bench watchlist: Tyler Bindon, Benjamin Old, Jesse Randall.", "Egypt: starters carry the main goal usage through Omar Marmoush; bench watchlist: Mahmoud Trézéguet, Haissem Hassan, Zizo.", "Assist usage should flow through the projected key-pass leaders; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Egypt tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.37 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If New Zealand is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Egypt.", "New Zealand wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "New Zealand": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Chris Wood": { "player_id": 50480, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 191, "market_value": 5200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1422, "goal_rate": 0.0004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0778, "key_pass": 3, "rating": 88.4659, "minutes": 80, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 9.5674, "dispossessed": 1.4841, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 3, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.4848, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.258, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yasser Ibrahim, Mohamed Hany", "opponent_faced": "Yasser Ibrahim, Mohamed Hany", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2329, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186832, "match_date": "2026-06-16", "home_team": "Iran", "away_team": "New Zealand", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "New Zealand", "opponent": "Iran", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.2226, "expected_assists": 0.092, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023964, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5845, "expected_assists": 0.0916, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0602, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 10, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023943, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632625, "match_date": "2026-05-07", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4948, 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"ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Moatasem Al-Musrati", "ranking": 628 }, { "player_name": "Uchenna Ogundu", "ranking": 629 }, { "player_name": "Talles Magno", "ranking": 630 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Ronier", "ranking": 631 }, { "player_name": "Darko Nejašmić", "ranking": 632 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Odin Luras Bjørtuft", "ranking": 634 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Bourigeaud", "ranking": 635 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Fuchs", "ranking": 636 }, { "player_name": "Natanael", "ranking": 637 }, { "player_name": "Juninho", "ranking": 638 } ] } } }, "Haissem Hassan": { "player_id": 942836, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 175, "market_value": 4099999, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 78.4676, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 0, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, 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"sofascore_rating": 6.8297, "sofascore_appearances": 37.0, "fifa_rank": 4145.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.4676, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Haissem Hassan", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kristoffer Zachariassen", "ranking": 17826 }, { "player_name": "Gerasimos Mitoglou", "ranking": 17827 }, { "player_name": "Alieu Fadera", "ranking": 17828 }, { "player_name": "Bongokuhle Hlongwane", "ranking": 17829 }, { "player_name": "Fabián Sambueza", "ranking": 17830 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Omri Gandelman", "ranking": 17832 }, { "player_name": "Franco Jara", "ranking": 17833 }, { "player_name": "Javier Méndez", "ranking": 17834 }, { "player_name": "Ryotaro Ito", "ranking": 17835 }, { "player_name": "Idrissa Touré", "ranking": 17836 } ] } } }, "Hamza Abdelkarim": { "player_id": 1961596, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 182, "market_value": 1500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 91.5497, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.8273, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, 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"sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 132.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.5497, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Hamza Abdelkarim", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Yusuke Matsuo", "ranking": 1654 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Zarza", "ranking": 1655 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Freitas", "ranking": 1656 }, { "player_name": "Thiago Andrade", "ranking": 1657 }, { "player_name": "Jakub Pira", "ranking": 1658 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jack Fletcher", "ranking": 1660 }, { "player_name": "Jaloliddin Masharipov", "ranking": 1661 }, { "player_name": "Alex Santana", "ranking": 1662 }, { "player_name": "Ahmed Fatouh", "ranking": 1663 }, { "player_name": "Erick Belé", "ranking": 1664 } ] } } }, "Zizo": { "player_id": 547494, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 174, "market_value": 3700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "rating": 88.5038, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.4811, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.01, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186837, "match_date": "2026-06-15", "home_team": "Belgium", "away_team": "Egypt", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Egypt", "opponent": "Belgium", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0196, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 16138371, "match_date": "2026-05-20", "home_team": "Al-Masry", "away_team": "Al Ahly FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Al Ahly FC", "opponent": "Al-Masry", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Egyptian Premier League", "league_id": "808", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "Egypt", "season_id": "79317", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 690, "combined_rank_score": 218.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 203.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 4.5038, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Zizo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Muhammed-Cham Saračević", "ranking": 685 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Chávez", "ranking": 686 }, { "player_name": "Henrik Wendel Meister", "ranking": 687 }, { "player_name": "Iker Fimbres", "ranking": 688 }, { "player_name": "Iago Borduchi", "ranking": 689 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "José Caicedo", "ranking": 691 }, { "player_name": "Adam Markhiev", "ranking": 692 }, { "player_name": "Giorgi Jgerenaia", "ranking": 693 }, { "player_name": "Manuel Neuer", "ranking": 694 }, { "player_name": "Luis Alberto", "ranking": 695 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.69, "expected_assists": 0.44, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 393, "interceptions": 14, "tackles": 27, "avg_rating": 89.75, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Sarpreet Singh", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 485000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.406, "defenders": [ "Marwan Attia" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.449, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.461, "xg_contribution": 0.1498, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marwan Attia", "role": "RB", "market_value": 3900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.539 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sarpreet Singh (LW) is evenly matched against Marwan Attia in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.150 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Elijah Just", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.434, "defenders": [ "Ahmed Fatouh" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.412, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.474, "xg_contribution": 0.3587, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ahmed Fatouh", "role": "LB", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.526 } ], "duel_analysis": "Elijah Just (RW) is evenly matched against Ahmed Fatouh in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.359 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Liberato Cacace", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 2300000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.429, "defenders": [ "Mohanad Lasheen", "Hamdy Fathy" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.432, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.257, "xg_contribution": 0.0231, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mohanad Lasheen", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.743 }, { "player": "Hamdy Fathy", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.743 } ], "duel_analysis": "Liberato Cacace (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Mohanad Lasheen and Hamdy Fathy in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. Projected xG contribution: 0.023 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Chris Wood", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Yasser Ibrahim", "Mohamed Hany" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.41, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.258, "xg_contribution": 0.1645, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yasser Ibrahim", "role": "CB", "market_value": 270000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.742 }, { "player": "Mohamed Hany", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.742 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chris Wood (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Yasser Ibrahim and Mohamed Hany in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. Projected xG contribution: 0.165 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Marko Stamenić", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Mohanad Lasheen" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.44, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.455, "xg_contribution": 0.0416, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mohanad Lasheen", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.545 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marko Stamenić (CDM) is evenly matched against Mohanad Lasheen in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mostafa Ziko", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 2000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.425, "defenders": [ "Callum McCowatt" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.434, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.484, "xg_contribution": 0.2039, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Callum McCowatt", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.516 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mostafa Ziko (LW) is evenly matched against Callum McCowatt in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.204 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Emam Ashour", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 4200000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.452, "defenders": [ "Tim Payne" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.404, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.514, "xg_contribution": 0.2838, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tim Payne", "role": "LB", "market_value": 340000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.486 } ], "duel_analysis": "Emam Ashour (RW) is slightly favored against Tim Payne in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. Projected xG contribution: 0.284 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Mohamed Salah", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Marko Stamenić", "Joe Bell" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.442, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.29, "xg_contribution": 0.1084, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marko Stamenić", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.71 }, { "player": "Joe Bell", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.71 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mohamed Salah (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Marko Stamenić and Joe Bell in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €3M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.108 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Omar Marmoush", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 55000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.84, "defenders": [ "Michael Boxall", "Finn Surman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.413, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.368, "xg_contribution": 0.3643, "shots_in_zone": 2.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Michael Boxall", "role": "CB", "market_value": 155000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632 }, { "player": "Finn Surman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632 } ], "duel_analysis": "Omar Marmoush (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Michael Boxall and Finn Surman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€55M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.364 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Mohanad Lasheen", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Marko Stamenić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.385, "xg_contribution": 0.049, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marko Stamenić", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.615 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mohanad Lasheen (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Marko Stamenić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.049 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.506, "away_midfield_power": 0.547, "home_creative_power": 0.388, "away_creative_power": 0.492, "home_defensive_power": 0.397, "away_defensive_power": 0.442, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.481, "home_midfield_count": 6, "away_midfield_count": 6, "home_midfield_players": [ "Sarpreet Singh", "Callum McCowatt", "Elijah Just", "Marko Stamenić", "Joe Bell", "Liberato Cacace" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Mostafa Ziko", "Emam Ashour", "Mohamed Salah", "Mohanad Lasheen", "Marwan Attia", "Hamdy Fathy" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Joe Bell vs Mohamed Salah", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.991, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.012 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.685, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Sarpreet Singh": { "opponents": [ "Marwan Attia", "Mostafa Ziko" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Elijah Just": { "opponents": [ "Ahmed Fatouh", "Emam Ashour" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Liberato Cacace": { "opponents": [ "Mohanad Lasheen", "Hamdy Fathy", "Mohamed Salah" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Chris Wood": { "opponents": [ "Yasser Ibrahim", "Mohamed Hany" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Marko Stamenić": { "opponents": [ "Mohanad Lasheen", "Mohamed Salah" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Callum McCowatt": { "opponents": [ "Mostafa Ziko", "Marwan Attia" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tim Payne": { "opponents": [ "Emam Ashour" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Joe Bell": { "opponents": [ "Mohamed Salah", "Hamdy Fathy" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Michael Boxall": { "opponents": [ "Omar Marmoush" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Finn Surman": { "opponents": [ "Omar Marmoush" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Max Crocombe": { "opponents": [ "Omar Marmoush", "Emam Ashour" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Marwan Attia": { "opponents": [ "Sarpreet Singh", "Callum McCowatt" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ahmed Fatouh": { "opponents": [ "Elijah Just" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mohanad Lasheen": { "opponents": [ "Liberato Cacace", "Marko Stamenić" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hamdy Fathy": { "opponents": [ "Liberato Cacace", "Joe Bell" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yasser Ibrahim": { "opponents": [ "Chris Wood" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mohamed Hany": { "opponents": [ "Chris Wood" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mostafa Ziko": { "opponents": [ "Callum McCowatt", "Sarpreet Singh" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Emam Ashour": { "opponents": [ "Tim Payne", "Elijah Just" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mohamed Salah": { "opponents": [ "Marko Stamenić", "Joe Bell", "Liberato Cacace" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Omar Marmoush": { "opponents": [ "Michael Boxall", "Finn Surman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mostafa Shobeir": { "opponents": [ "Chris Wood", "Joe Bell" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Joe Bell vs Mohamed Salah will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.74, Away: 1.01. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0193, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0209, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.123, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.015, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0252, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0256, "home_midfield_factor": 0.991, "away_midfield_factor": 1.012, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.428, "away_avg_quality": 0.4904, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0623, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.1625, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.2709, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.2131, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1576, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3468, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2207, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0025, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0925, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.823, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.685, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.8235, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.6855, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.05, "final_away_lambda": 1.685 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-21T13:31:50Z" }