{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Tunisia", "away_team": "Japan", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260621", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1324, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1324 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1279 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1032 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.103 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0829 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.103, "0-1": 0.1279, "0-2": 0.0813, "0-3": 0.0342, "0-4": 0.0108, "0-5": 0.0027, "0-6": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.1032, "1-1": 0.1324, "1-2": 0.0829, "1-3": 0.0349, "1-4": 0.011, "1-5": 0.0028, "1-6": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0531, "2-1": 0.067, "2-2": 0.0423, "2-3": 0.0178, "2-4": 0.0056, "2-5": 0.0014, "3-0": 0.0181, "3-1": 0.0228, "3-2": 0.0144, "3-3": 0.006, "3-4": 0.0019, "4-0": 0.0046, "4-1": 0.0058, "4-2": 0.0037, "4-3": 0.0015, "5-0": 0.0009, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2981, "draw": 0.2843, "away_win": 0.4177 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3992, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6008, "btts_yes": 0.4594, "btts_no": 0.5406, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2831, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 81.45, "MCR": 83.26, "ATR": 89.45, "GK": 90.67 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 80.68, "MCR": 85.41, "ATR": 83.14, "GK": 81.68 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Tunisia vs Japan. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Ali Abdi, Daizen Maeda", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Hannibal Mejbri vs Kaishu Sano will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.27, Away: 0.62. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle." }, "confidence": 0.72, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.262 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2981, "draw": 0.2843, "away_win": 0.4177 }, "favorite": "Japan", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4177, "fair_spread": -0.242, "fair_total": 2.282, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Tunisia", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Japan", "estimate": 1.262, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3992, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4594, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Tunisia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2831, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Japan", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ali Abdi (Tunisia)", "estimate": 0.304, "probability": 0.228, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Daizen Maeda (Japan)", "estimate": 0.268, "probability": 0.3032, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Hannibal Mejbri (Tunisia)", "estimate": 0.1985, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Daichi Kamada (Japan)", "estimate": 0.1304, "probability": 0.2809, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.282, "expected_total_shots": 20, "expected_total_passes": 619, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.8, "possession_home_pct": 48.1, "possession_away_pct": 51.9, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Japan", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4177, "script": "Japan is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.24 goals and fair total 2.28.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Tunisia must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Japan lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Japan chance creation leans on Daizen Maeda against Hannibal Mejbri, Ali Abdi in Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Tunisia: starters carry the main goal usage through Ali Abdi; bench watchlist: Sebastian Tounekti, Anis Ben Slimane, Adem Arous.", "Japan: starters carry the main goal usage through Daizen Maeda; bench watchlist: Takefusa Kubo, Yuito Suzuki, Keisuke Goto.", "Assist usage should flow through Daichi Kamada; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Japan tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.14 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Tunisia is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Japan.", "Tunisia wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Tunisia": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Aymen Dahmen": { "player_id": 1198374, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 188, "market_value": 720000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2944, "rating": 90.6724, "minutes": 90, "total_shots": 0, "expected_saves": 1.29, "high_pressure_saves": 0.49, "shots_faced": 2.8, "opponent_faced": "Daizen Maeda, Keito Nakamura", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2446, "combined_rank_score": 272.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 232.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.6724, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Aymen Dahmen", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jose Juninho", "ranking": 2441 }, { "player_name": "Sphelele Mkhulise", "ranking": 2442 }, { "player_name": "Homer Martinez", "ranking": 2443 }, { "player_name": "Frank Boya", "ranking": 2444 }, { "player_name": "Duckens Nazon", "ranking": 2445 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dodi", "ranking": 2447 }, { "player_name": "Styopa Mkrtchyan", "ranking": 2448 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Monti", "ranking": 2449 }, { "player_name": "Richard", "ranking": 2450 }, { "player_name": "Federico Paz", "ranking": 2451 } ] } } }, "Firas Chaouat": { "player_id": 919198, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 185, "market_value": 1100000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2064, "goal_rate": 0.0004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 89.4483, "minutes": 13, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.9812, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Hiroki Itō, Shogo Taniguchi", "opponent_faced": "Hiroki Itō, Shogo Taniguchi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1758, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186951, "match_date": "2026-06-15", "home_team": "Sweden", "away_team": "Tunisia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Tunisia", "opponent": "Sweden", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2276, "combined_rank_score": 298.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 294.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.4483, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Firas Chaouat", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Hady Reyad", "ranking": 2271 }, { "player_name": "Kennedy Egbus Mikuni", "ranking": 2272 }, { "player_name": "Kai Matsuzaki", "ranking": 2273 }, { "player_name": "Filip Slavíček", "ranking": 2274 }, { "player_name": "André Ramalho", "ranking": 2275 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Saleh Hardani", "ranking": 2277 }, { "player_name": "João Pedro Silva", "ranking": 2278 }, { "player_name": "Dmytro Bogdanov", "ranking": 2279 }, { "player_name": "Jaedin Rhodes", "ranking": 2280 }, { "player_name": "Luca Moisa", "ranking": 2281 } ] } } }, "Hannibal Mejbri": { "player_id": 1009386, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 182, "market_value": 15700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 3, "expected_assists": 0.1985, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0349, "rating": 91.1917, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 33, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 10, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 13.0818, "dispossessed": 1.2825, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1129, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 80, "progressive_carries": 2, "opponent_faced": "Daizen Maeda, Kaishu Sano, Ritsu Doan", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0902, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186951, "match_date": "2026-06-15", "home_team": "Sweden", "away_team": "Tunisia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tunisia", "opponent": "Sweden", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, 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true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023950, "match_date": "2026-05-18", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Burnley", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1107, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023929, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Aston Villa", 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"source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Hannibal Mejbri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Dan Biton", "ranking": 124 }, { "player_name": "Fabrício Bruno", "ranking": 125 }, { "player_name": "Ignacio Ovando", "ranking": 126 }, { "player_name": "Denzel Dumfries", "ranking": 127 }, { "player_name": "Tasos Bakasetas", "ranking": 128 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sang-Min Koo", "ranking": 130 }, { "player_name": "Kacper Potulski", "ranking": 131 }, { "player_name": "Luis Díaz", "ranking": 132 }, { "player_name": "Federico Dimarco", "ranking": 133 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Mac Allister", "ranking": 134 } ] } } }, "Elias Achouri": { "player_id": 945204, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 177, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "rating": 78.4287, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 0.982, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0196, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.291, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Hiroki Itō", "opponent_faced": "Hiroki Itō", 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"Keisuke Goto": { "player_id": 1391315, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 191, "market_value": 9300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0598, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0059, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 62.6809, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 2.0707, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0971, "offsides": 3, "ball_carries": 1, 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"ranking": { "global_player_rank": 24770, "combined_rank_score": 8527.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 16856.0, "fifa_overall": 56.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6809, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Keisuke Goto", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Tibault Citherlet", "ranking": 24765 }, { "player_name": "Ehije Ukaki", "ranking": 24766 }, { "player_name": "Haitham Asiri", "ranking": 24767 }, { "player_name": "Simone Stroscio", "ranking": 24768 }, { "player_name": "Martin Männel", "ranking": 24769 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Peter Abrahamsson", "ranking": 24771 }, { "player_name": "Jop Tijink", "ranking": 24772 }, { "player_name": "Telli Siwe", "ranking": 24773 }, { "player_name": "Lionel Mpasi", "ranking": 24774 }, { "player_name": "Oscar Johansson Schellhas", "ranking": 24775 } ] } } }, "Kento Shiogai": { "player_id": 1499696, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 180, "market_value": 8199999, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 72.5171, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.7098, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, 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St. Pauli", "away_team": "VfL Wolfsburg", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "VfL Wolfsburg", "opponent": "FC St. Pauli", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065251, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "VfL Wolfsburg", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "VfL Wolfsburg", "opponent": "FC Bayern München", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1263, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 21161, "combined_rank_score": 5102.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 10014.0, "fifa_overall": 66.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.5171, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kento Shiogai", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jack Iredale", "ranking": 21156 }, { "player_name": "Nachon Nsingi", "ranking": 21157 }, { "player_name": "Mahamadou Nagida", "ranking": 21158 }, { "player_name": "Mattie Pollock", "ranking": 21159 }, { "player_name": "Liam Lindsay", "ranking": 21160 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Shane Duffy", "ranking": 21162 }, { "player_name": "Maximilian Bauer", "ranking": 21163 }, { "player_name": "Yan Diomande", "ranking": 21164 }, { "player_name": "Marcel Franke", "ranking": 21165 }, { "player_name": "Villads Nielsen", "ranking": 21166 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.26, "expected_assists": 0.51, "total_shots": 9, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 330, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 82.94, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Elias Achouri", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Hiroki Itō" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.629, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.291, "xg_contribution": 0.0261, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hiroki Itō", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.709 } ], "duel_analysis": "Elias Achouri (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Hiroki Itō in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €20M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.026 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ismael Gharbi", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 4800000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.46, "defenders": [ "Kaishu Sano" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.791, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.259, "xg_contribution": 0.0376, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kaishu Sano", "role": "CM", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.741 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ismael Gharbi (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Kaishu Sano in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €42M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.038 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Rani Khedira", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.426, "defenders": [ "Hiroki Itō" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.629, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.329, "xg_contribution": 0.0129, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hiroki Itō", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.671 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rani Khedira (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Hiroki Itō in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €20M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.013 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Firas Chaouat", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1100000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.414, "defenders": [ "Hiroki Itō", "Shogo Taniguchi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.519, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1932, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hiroki Itō", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Shogo Taniguchi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 775000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Firas Chaouat (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Hiroki Itō and Shogo Taniguchi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.193 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Yukinari Sugawara", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.462, "defenders": [ "Ali Abdi", "Montassar Talbi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.459, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1009, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ali Abdi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Montassar Talbi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yukinari Sugawara (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ali Abdi and Montassar Talbi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.101 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Daizen Maeda", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 12600000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.552, "defenders": [ "Hannibal Mejbri", "Ali Abdi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.505, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.253, "xg_contribution": 0.2077, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hannibal Mejbri", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 15700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.747 }, { "player": "Ali Abdi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.747 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daizen Maeda (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Hannibal Mejbri and Ali Abdi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. Projected xG contribution: 0.208 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Keito Nakamura", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Yan Valery" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.419, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.426, "xg_contribution": 0.1504, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yan Valery", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.574 } ], "duel_analysis": "Keito Nakamura (LWB) is evenly matched against Yan Valery in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.150 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Daichi Kamada", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 10300000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.526, "defenders": [ "Omar Rekik" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.406, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "xg_contribution": 0.1018, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Omar Rekik", "role": "LB", "market_value": 515000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.554 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daichi Kamada (RWB) is evenly matched against Omar Rekik in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.102 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Kaishu Sano", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 42000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.791, "defenders": [ "Hannibal Mejbri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.587, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.518, "xg_contribution": 0.0549, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hannibal Mejbri", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 15700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.482 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kaishu Sano (CM) is slightly favored against Hannibal Mejbri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€42M vs €16M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.055 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.525, "away_midfield_power": 0.633, "home_creative_power": 0.45, "away_creative_power": 0.576, "home_defensive_power": 0.415, "away_defensive_power": 0.599, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.453, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Hannibal Mejbri", "Elias Achouri", "Rani Khedira", "Ellyes Skhiri", "Ismael Gharbi" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Keito Nakamura", "Kaishu Sano", "Daichi Kamada", "Ritsu Doan" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.2, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.0, "home_throughball_threat": 2.0, "away_throughball_threat": 2.3, "key_personal_duel": "Hannibal Mejbri vs Kaishu Sano", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.98, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.022 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.262, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "CAM vs CM" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Elias Achouri": { "opponents": [ "Hiroki Itō", "Daichi Kamada" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ismael Gharbi": { "opponents": [ "Kaishu Sano" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rani Khedira": { "opponents": [ "Hiroki Itō", "Kaishu Sano" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Firas Chaouat": { "opponents": [ "Hiroki Itō", "Shogo Taniguchi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ali Abdi": { "opponents": [ "Yukinari Sugawara", "Daizen Maeda" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Montassar Talbi": { "opponents": [ "Yukinari Sugawara" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Hannibal Mejbri": { "opponents": [ "Daizen Maeda", "Kaishu Sano", "Ritsu Doan" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yan Valery": { "opponents": [ "Keito Nakamura" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Omar Rekik": { "opponents": [ "Daichi Kamada" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ellyes Skhiri": { "opponents": [ "Keito Nakamura" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Aymen Dahmen": { "opponents": [ "Ayase Ueda", "Daizen Maeda" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Hiroki Itō": { "opponents": [ "Elias Achouri", "Rani Khedira", "Firas Chaouat" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kaishu Sano": { "opponents": [ "Ismael Gharbi", "Hannibal Mejbri", "Rani Khedira" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Shogo Taniguchi": { "opponents": [ "Firas Chaouat" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Yukinari Sugawara": { "opponents": [ "Ali Abdi", "Montassar Talbi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Daizen Maeda": { "opponents": [ "Hannibal Mejbri", "Ali Abdi" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Keito Nakamura": { "opponents": [ "Yan Valery", "Ellyes Skhiri" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Daichi Kamada": { "opponents": [ "Omar Rekik", "Elias Achouri" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ritsu Doan": { "opponents": [ "Hannibal Mejbri" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Zion Suzuki": { "opponents": [ "Firas Chaouat", "Ellyes Skhiri" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Tsuyoshi Watanabe": { "opponents": [ "Firas Chaouat" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ayase Ueda": { "opponents": [ "Montassar Talbi", "Yan Valery" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Hannibal Mejbri vs Kaishu Sano will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.27, Away: 0.62. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0223, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.088, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.072, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9829, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0069, "home_midfield_factor": 0.98, "away_midfield_factor": 1.022, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4534, "away_avg_quality": 0.5596, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1062, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.0458, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.9184, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.0281, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1707, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3756, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.239, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0192, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0543, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.669, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.262, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.6692, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.2623, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 1.262 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-20T13:37:53Z" }