{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Jordan", "away_team": "Algeria", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260622", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1286, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1286 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1245 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0919 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0917 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.088 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0917, "0-1": 0.1245, "0-2": 0.0863, "0-3": 0.0396, "0-4": 0.0137, "0-5": 0.0038, "0-6": 0.0009, "1-0": 0.0919, "1-1": 0.1286, "1-2": 0.088, "1-3": 0.0404, "1-4": 0.0139, "1-5": 0.0038, "1-6": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.0473, "2-1": 0.0652, "2-2": 0.0449, "2-3": 0.0206, "2-4": 0.0071, "2-5": 0.002, "3-0": 0.0161, "3-1": 0.0222, "3-2": 0.0153, "3-3": 0.007, "3-4": 0.0024, "3-5": 0.0007, "4-0": 0.0041, "4-1": 0.0056, "4-2": 0.0039, "4-3": 0.0018, "4-4": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0008, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2772, "draw": 0.2728, "away_win": 0.45 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4298, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5702, "btts_yes": 0.479, "btts_no": 0.521, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2521, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 84.59, "MCR": 88.37, "ATR": 89.28, "GK": 86.8 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 85.06, "MCR": 82.16, "ATR": 81.47, "GK": 77.29 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Jordan vs Algeria. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Ali Olwan, Houssem Aouar", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Nizar Al-Rashdan vs Farès Chaïbi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.60, Away: 0.43. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: LW vs CB." }, "confidence": 0.73, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.378 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2772, "draw": 0.2728, "away_win": 0.45 }, "favorite": "Algeria", "favorite_win_probability": 0.45, "fair_spread": -0.358, "fair_total": 2.398, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Jordan", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Algeria", "estimate": 1.378, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4298, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.479, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Jordan", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2521, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Algeria", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ali Olwan (Jordan)", "estimate": 0.3635, "probability": 0.5431, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ramy Bensebaini (Algeria)", "estimate": 0.4882, "probability": 0.1777, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Mousa Tamari (Jordan)", "estimate": 0.1048, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Riyad Mahrez (Algeria)", "estimate": 0.1351, "probability": 0.3586, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.398, "expected_total_shots": 21, "expected_total_passes": 861, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.7, "possession_home_pct": 48.8, "possession_away_pct": 51.2, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Algeria", "favorite_win_probability": 0.45, "script": "Algeria is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.36 goals and fair total 2.40.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Jordan must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Algeria lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Jordan chance creation leans on Ali Olwan against Rayan Aït-Nouri, Ramy Bensebaini in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Jordan: starters carry the main goal usage through Ali Olwan; bench watchlist: Mohammad Abu Zrayq, Ibrahim Sadeh, Amer Jamous.", "Algeria: starters carry the main goal usage through Houssem Aouar; bench watchlist: Mohamed Amoura, Anis Hadj Moussa, Hicham Boudaoui.", "Assist usage should flow through Riyad Mahrez; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Algeria tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.20 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Jordan is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Algeria.", "Jordan wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Jordan": { "formation": "3-4-3", "players": { "Mousa Tamari": { "player_id": 876600, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 175, "market_value": 10800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2915, "goal_rate": 0.0004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1048, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 90.5567, "minutes": 89, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 10.6002, "dispossessed": 1.0095, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0606, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 45, "progressive_carries": 3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.324, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Rayan Aït-Nouri", "opponent_faced": "Rayan Aït-Nouri", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1595, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186751, "match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "Austria", "away_team": "Jordan", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Jordan", "opponent": "Austria", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1386, "expected_assists": 0.1075, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14061907, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Olympique de Marseille", "away_team": "Stade Rennais", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Stade Rennais", "opponent": "Olympique de Marseille", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2861, "expected_assists": 0.4219, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14064513, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Stade Rennais", "away_team": "Paris FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Stade Rennais", "opponent": "Paris FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1487, "expected_assists": 0.0989, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14167989, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Olympique Lyonnais", "away_team": "Stade Rennais", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Stade Rennais", "opponent": "Olympique Lyonnais", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0316, "expected_assists": 0.0814, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 280, "combined_rank_score": 184.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 201.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.5567, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mousa Tamari", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alan Medina", "ranking": 275 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Moya", "ranking": 276 }, { "player_name": "Ayoube Amaimouni Echghouyab", "ranking": 277 }, { "player_name": "Sancet", "ranking": 278 }, { "player_name": "Xavi Simons", "ranking": 279 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Eldor Adhamov", "ranking": 281 }, { "player_name": "Allan Saint-Maximin", "ranking": 282 }, { "player_name": "Luciano Juba", "ranking": 283 }, { "player_name": "Robert Renan", "ranking": 284 }, { "player_name": "Marcel Ruíz", "ranking": 285 } ] } } }, "Ali Olwan": { "player_id": 980728, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 180, "market_value": 825000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3635, "goal_rate": 1.0947, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.019, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 90.6278, "minutes": 89, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 21.587, "dispossessed": 3.9249, "duels_lost": 9, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.8537, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 117, "progressive_carries": 4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Rayan Aït-Nouri, Ramy Bensebaini", "opponent_faced": "Rayan Aït-Nouri, Ramy Bensebaini", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.5431, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186751, "match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "Austria", "away_team": "Jordan", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Jordan", "opponent": "Austria", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2481, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 14, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2124, "combined_rank_score": 290.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 290.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.6278, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ali Olwan", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mohamed Reda", "ranking": 2119 }, { "player_name": "Baptiste Roux", "ranking": 2120 }, { "player_name": "Diego Medina", "ranking": 2121 }, { "player_name": "Danylo Varakuta", "ranking": 2122 }, { "player_name": "Nick Shinton", "ranking": 2123 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "DeAndre Yedlin", "ranking": 2125 }, { "player_name": "Amjad Attwan", "ranking": 2126 }, { "player_name": "Artur Gajdoš", "ranking": 2127 }, { "player_name": "Stefan Ranđelović", "ranking": 2128 }, { "player_name": "Frane Maglica", "ranking": 2129 } ] } } }, "Odeh Fakhoury": { "player_id": 1937497, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 180, "market_value": 315000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0582, "goal_rate": 0.001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 86.6437, "minutes": 78, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.4343, "dispossessed": 0.9812, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 6, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2453, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.287, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Rayan Aït-Nouri", "opponent_faced": "Rayan Aït-Nouri", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1057, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186751, "match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "Austria", "away_team": "Jordan", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Jordan", "opponent": "Austria", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0445, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, 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6210, "combined_rank_score": 540.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 671.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.6437, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Odeh Fakhoury", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mohamed El Sayed", "ranking": 6205 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Mosquera", "ranking": 6206 }, { "player_name": "Kendall Porras", "ranking": 6207 }, { "player_name": "Mauro Martín", "ranking": 6208 }, { "player_name": "Steven Bergwijn", "ranking": 6209 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Wisdom Aondowase Sule", "ranking": 6211 }, { "player_name": "Dániel Gyollai", "ranking": 6212 }, { "player_name": "Ovidio Lopez", "ranking": 6213 }, { "player_name": "Harrison Paton", "ranking": 6214 }, { 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"shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "VriendenLoterij Eredivisie", "league_id": "37", "league_slug": "eredivisie", "league_country": "Netherlands", "season_id": "77012", "season_name": "VriendenLoterij Eredivisie 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 16109, "combined_rank_score": 979.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 1879.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6789, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Anis Hadj Moussa", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Romain Del Castillo", "ranking": 16104 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Mora", "ranking": 16105 }, { "player_name": "Ismael Doukouré", "ranking": 16106 }, { "player_name": "Vinícius Souza", "ranking": 16107 }, { "player_name": "Beto", "ranking": 16108 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kevin Mac Allister", "ranking": 16110 }, { "player_name": "Jérémie Boga", "ranking": 16111 }, { "player_name": "Lukas Nmecha", "ranking": 16112 }, { "player_name": "Diego Moreira", "ranking": 16113 }, { "player_name": "Yahia Fofana", "ranking": 16114 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.38, "expected_assists": 0.58, "total_shots": 9, "shots_on_target": 12, "total_passes": 533, "interceptions": 11, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 82.38, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mohannad Abu Taha", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 535000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.407, "defenders": [ "Amine Gouiri" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.718, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.244, "xg_contribution": 0.0522, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Amine Gouiri", "role": "RB", "market_value": 30000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.756 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mohannad Abu Taha (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Amine Gouiri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €30M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.052 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Nizar Al-Rashdan", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 620000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.408, "defenders": [ "Nabil Bentaleb" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.461, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.418, "xg_contribution": 0.0985, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nabil Bentaleb", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.582 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nizar Al-Rashdan (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Nabil Bentaleb in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.099 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Noor Al-Rawabdeh", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 455000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.406, "defenders": [ "Nabil Bentaleb" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.461, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.393, "xg_contribution": 0.0946, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nabil Bentaleb", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.607 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noor Al-Rawabdeh (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Nabil Bentaleb in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.095 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ehsan Haddad", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 290000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.404, "defenders": [ "Aïssa Mandi" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.414, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.371, "xg_contribution": 0.0436, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "LB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.629 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ehsan Haddad (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Aïssa Mandi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Mousa Tamari", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 10800000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.532, "defenders": [ "Rayan Aït-Nouri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.324, "xg_contribution": 0.1263, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rayan Aït-Nouri", "role": "CB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.676 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mousa Tamari (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Rayan Aït-Nouri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€11M vs €39M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.126 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Odeh Fakhoury", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 315000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.404, "defenders": [ "Rayan Aït-Nouri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.287, "xg_contribution": 0.0252, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rayan Aït-Nouri", "role": "CB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.713 } ], "duel_analysis": "Odeh Fakhoury (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Rayan Aït-Nouri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €39M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.025 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ali Olwan", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 825000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.41, "defenders": [ "Rayan Aït-Nouri", "Ramy Bensebaini" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.633, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1575, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rayan Aït-Nouri", "role": "CB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ramy Bensebaini", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ali Olwan (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Rayan Aït-Nouri and Ramy Bensebaini in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €23M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.158 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Riyad Mahrez", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Mo Abualnadi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.405, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.423, "xg_contribution": 0.119, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mo Abualnadi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 380000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.577 } ], "duel_analysis": "Riyad Mahrez (LW) is evenly matched against Mo Abualnadi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.119 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Farès Chaïbi", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 14500000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.574, "defenders": [ "Nizar Al-Rashdan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.408, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.487, "xg_contribution": 0.1026, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nizar Al-Rashdan", "role": "CM", "market_value": 620000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.513 } ], "duel_analysis": "Farès Chaïbi (CAM) is evenly matched against Nizar Al-Rashdan in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.103 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Houssem Aouar", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Mo Abualnadi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.405, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.418, "xg_contribution": 0.1118, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mo Abualnadi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 380000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.582 } ], "duel_analysis": "Houssem Aouar (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Mo Abualnadi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.112 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ibrahim Maza", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Mo Abualnadi", "Abdallah Nasib" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.405, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.356, "xg_contribution": 0.0967, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mo Abualnadi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 380000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.644 }, { "player": "Abdallah Nasib", "role": "CB", "market_value": 360000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.644 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ibrahim Maza (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Mo Abualnadi and Abdallah Nasib in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 36%. The quality gap is significant (€41M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.097 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.431, "away_midfield_power": 0.546, "home_creative_power": 0.425, "away_creative_power": 0.449, "home_defensive_power": 0.407, "away_defensive_power": 0.428, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.441, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Mohannad Abu Taha", "Noor Al-Rawabdeh", "Nizar Al-Rashdan", "Ehsan Haddad" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Riyad Mahrez", "Nabil Bentaleb", "Houssem Aouar", "Rafik Belghali", "Farès Chaïbi" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.2, "home_throughball_threat": 1.9, "away_throughball_threat": 1.9, "key_personal_duel": "Nizar Al-Rashdan vs Farès Chaïbi", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.987, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.016 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.378, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "LW vs CB", "RW vs CB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Mohannad Abu Taha": { "opponents": [ "Amine Gouiri", "Rafik Belghali" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nizar Al-Rashdan": { "opponents": [ "Nabil Bentaleb", "Farès Chaïbi", "Houssem Aouar" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Noor Al-Rawabdeh": { "opponents": [ "Nabil Bentaleb" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ehsan Haddad": { "opponents": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Riyad Mahrez" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mousa Tamari": { "opponents": [ "Rayan Aït-Nouri" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Odeh Fakhoury": { "opponents": [ "Rayan Aït-Nouri" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ali Olwan": { "opponents": [ "Rayan Aït-Nouri", "Ramy Bensebaini" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mo Abualnadi": { "opponents": [ "Riyad Mahrez", "Houssem Aouar", "Ibrahim Maza" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Abdallah Nasib": { "opponents": [ "Ibrahim Maza" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Yazeed Abu Laila": { "opponents": [ "Amine Gouiri", "Ibrahim Maza" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Yazan Al-Arab": { "opponents": [ "Amine Gouiri" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Amine Gouiri": { "opponents": [ "Mohannad Abu Taha" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nabil Bentaleb": { "opponents": [ "Nizar Al-Rashdan", "Noor Al-Rawabdeh" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aïssa Mandi": { "opponents": [ "Ehsan Haddad" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rayan Aït-Nouri": { "opponents": [ "Mousa Tamari", "Odeh Fakhoury", "Ali Olwan" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ramy Bensebaini": { "opponents": [ "Ali Olwan" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Riyad Mahrez": { "opponents": [ "Mo Abualnadi", "Ehsan Haddad" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Farès Chaïbi": { "opponents": [ "Nizar Al-Rashdan" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Houssem Aouar": { "opponents": [ "Mo Abualnadi", "Nizar Al-Rashdan" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ibrahim Maza": { "opponents": [ "Mo Abualnadi", "Abdallah Nasib" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Rafik Belghali": { "opponents": [ "Mohannad Abu Taha" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Luca Zidane": { "opponents": [ "Mousa Tamari", "Odeh Fakhoury" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Nizar Al-Rashdan vs Farès Chaïbi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.60, Away: 0.43. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: LW vs CB.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0213, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0245, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.021, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.057, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9645, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0215, "home_midfield_factor": 0.987, "away_midfield_factor": 1.016, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4192, "away_avg_quality": 0.5663, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1471, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.8798, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.7863, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.617, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2671, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.5877, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.374, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.058, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0316, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.708, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.378, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.708, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.3776, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 1.378 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-22T13:37:42Z" }