{ "match_info": { "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Iraq", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260622", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "4-0", "home_goals": 4, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0975, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "4-0", "probability": 0.0975 }, { "score": "5-0", "probability": 0.0936 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0812 }, { "score": "6-0", "probability": 0.0749 }, { "score": "4-1", "probability": 0.0634 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0044, "0-1": 0.0029, "0-2": 0.0009, "1-0": 0.0212, "1-1": 0.0138, "1-2": 0.0045, "1-3": 0.001, "2-0": 0.0508, "2-1": 0.033, "2-2": 0.0107, "2-3": 0.0023, "3-0": 0.0812, "3-1": 0.0528, "3-2": 0.0172, "3-3": 0.0037, "3-4": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0975, "4-1": 0.0634, "4-2": 0.0206, "4-3": 0.0045, "4-4": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.0936, "5-1": 0.0608, "5-2": 0.0198, "5-3": 0.0043, "5-4": 0.0007, "6-0": 0.0749, "6-1": 0.0487, "6-2": 0.0158, "6-3": 0.0034, "6-4": 0.0006, "7-0": 0.0513, "7-1": 0.0334, "7-2": 0.0108, "7-3": 0.0023, "8-0": 0.0308, "8-1": 0.02, "8-2": 0.0065, "8-3": 0.0014, "9-0": 0.0164, "9-1": 0.0107, "9-2": 0.0035, "9-3": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.9534, "draw": 0.0334, "away_win": 0.0132 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.9061, "under_2_5_goals": 0.0939, "btts_yes": 0.4739, "btts_no": 0.5261, "home_clean_sheet": 0.522, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0084 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 91.82, "MCR": 90.12, "ATR": 95.99, "GK": 93.53 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 83.34, "MCR": 72.39, "ATR": 81.79, "GK": 89.02 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for France vs Iraq. Most likely scoreline: 4-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Kylian Mbappé (2), Bradley Barcola, Michael Olise", "tactical_analysis": "4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Michael Olise vs Zidane Iqbal). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.86, Away: 0.46. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.95, "home_lambda": 4.8, "away_lambda": 0.65 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.9534, "draw": 0.0334, "away_win": 0.0132 }, "favorite": "France", "favorite_win_probability": 0.9534, "fair_spread": 4.15, "fair_total": 5.45, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "France", "estimate": 4.8, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Iraq", "estimate": 0.65, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.9061, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4739, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "France", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.522, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Iraq", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0084, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kylian Mbappé (France)", "estimate": 1.3209, "probability": 0.8658, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Aymen Hussein (Iraq)", "estimate": 0.1813, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Michael Olise (France)", "estimate": 0.8496, "probability": 0.7977, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Amir Al-Ammari (Iraq)", "estimate": 0.2516, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 5.45, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 835, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.2, "possession_home_pct": 55.2, "possession_away_pct": 44.8, "notes": "France projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "France", "favorite_win_probability": 0.9534, "script": "France is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +4.15 goals and fair total 5.45.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Iraq must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A France lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "France chance creation leans on Kylian Mbappé against Akam Hashem, Zaid Tahseen in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; France projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "France: starters carry the main goal usage through Kylian Mbappé (2), Bradley Barcola, Michael Olise; bench watchlist: Désiré Doué, Rayan Cherki, Maxence Lacroix.", "Iraq: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Ahmed Qasem, Marko Farji, Mohanad Ali.", "Assist usage should flow through Michael Olise, Adrien Rabiot; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: France tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 2.73 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Iraq is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for France.", "Iraq wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "France": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Kylian Mbappé": { "player_id": 826643, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 191000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 1.3209, "goal_rate": 1.5624, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 3, "expected_assists": 0.0365, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 98.9903, "minutes": 87, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 10.0798, "dispossessed": 2.7999, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 1.064, "offsides": 3, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 92, "progressive_carries": 5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.387, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Akam Hashem, Zaid Tahseen", "opponent_faced": "Akam Hashem, Zaid Tahseen", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 2, "goal_probability": 0.8658, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0373, "fifa_overall": 91.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186501, "match_date": "2026-06-16", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Senegal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Senegal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7638, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14083731, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2598, "expected_assists": 0.0681, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5088, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "total_shots": 5, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083649, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1734, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632088, "match_date": "2026-04-15", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "FC Bayern München", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2395, "expected_assists": 0.3297, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632084, "match_date": "2026-04-07", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "FC Bayern München", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2688, "expected_assists": 0.0745, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631365, "match_date": "2026-03-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0631, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4, "combined_rank_score": 10.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 18.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.0545, "sofascore_appearances": 11.0, "fifa_rank": 3.0, "fifa_overall": 91.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.9903, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 1 }, { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 2 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Gutiérrez", "ranking": 3 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 }, { "player_name": "Nico López", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Andy Vidal", "ranking": 8 }, { "player_name": "James Rodríguez", "ranking": 9 } ] } } }, "Bradley Barcola": { "player_id": 996952, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 182, "market_value": 68000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 1.0241, "goal_rate": 0.8043, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0524, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 91.8503, "minutes": 22, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 7.0283, "dispossessed": 1.3879, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.7439, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.716, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Merchas Doski", "opponent_faced": "Merchas Doski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.6915, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0426, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186501, "match_date": "2026-06-16", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Senegal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "France", "opponent": "Senegal", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4286, "expected_assists": 0.0568, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14061910, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Paris FC", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "Paris FC", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 7.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3384, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15889331, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "RC Lens", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "RC Lens", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0625, "expected_assists": 0.011, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14064510, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "away_team": "Stade Brestois", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "Stade Brestois", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0638, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632634, "match_date": "2026-05-06", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "FC Bayern München", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632632, "match_date": "2026-04-28", "home_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "FC Bayern München", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 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"sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 9836.0, "fifa_overall": 66.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.4179, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ahmed Qasem", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jon Bautista", "ranking": 21068 }, { "player_name": "Mohamad Sylla", "ranking": 21069 }, { "player_name": "Saïdou Sow", "ranking": 21070 }, { "player_name": "Peter", "ranking": 21071 }, { "player_name": "Ilias Bronkhorst", "ranking": 21072 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "José Bizama", "ranking": 21074 }, { "player_name": "Nias Hefti", "ranking": 21075 }, { "player_name": "Máximo Alonso", "ranking": 21076 }, { "player_name": "Adam Gabriel", "ranking": 21077 }, { "player_name": "Francisco La Mantía", "ranking": 21078 } ] } } }, "Marko Farji": { "player_id": 1026519, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 184, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 72.3042, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 1.1978, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, 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"sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 9738.0, "fifa_overall": 66.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.3042, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marko Farji", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Simon Pirkl", "ranking": 21028 }, { "player_name": "Lachlan Brook", "ranking": 21029 }, { "player_name": "Kwadwo Opoku", "ranking": 21030 }, { "player_name": "Matthieu Huard", "ranking": 21031 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Mosquera", "ranking": 21032 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Daniel Håkans", "ranking": 21034 }, { "player_name": "Thomas Claes", "ranking": 21035 }, { "player_name": "Mamadou Diakhon", "ranking": 21036 }, { "player_name": "Hyun-taek Cho", "ranking": 21037 }, { "player_name": "Jacques Siwe", "ranking": 21038 } ] } } }, "Mohanad Ali": { "player_id": 951859, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 182, "market_value": 1500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 88.44, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.5515, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186773, "match_date": "2026-06-16", "home_team": "Iraq", "away_team": "Norway", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Iraq", "opponent": "Norway", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1293, "combined_rank_score": 322.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 389.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.44, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mohanad Ali", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ahmed Hadzimujovic", "ranking": 1288 }, { "player_name": "Mahmoud Marei", "ranking": 1289 }, { "player_name": "Cristian Calderón", "ranking": 1290 }, { "player_name": "Sebastián Santos", "ranking": 1291 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Merolla", "ranking": 1292 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matheus Donelli", "ranking": 1294 }, { "player_name": "Shaqueel van Persie", "ranking": 1295 }, { "player_name": "Mateus Carvalho", "ranking": 1296 }, { "player_name": "Igor Rabello", "ranking": 1297 }, { "player_name": "Hossein Kanaani", "ranking": 1298 } ] } } }, "Ali Yousif": { "player_id": 834492, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 192, "market_value": 195000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0373, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 86.6724, "minutes": 25, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "key_pass": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 8211, "combined_rank_score": 542.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 658.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6724, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ali Yousif", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jonathan Argueta", "ranking": 8206 }, { "player_name": "Lukas Leginus", "ranking": 8207 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Henrichs", "ranking": 8208 }, { "player_name": "Dimitrios Grammenos", "ranking": 8209 }, { "player_name": "Khalid Aucho", "ranking": 8210 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dimitrios Bataoulas", "ranking": 8212 }, { "player_name": "Krahire Yannick Zakri", "ranking": 8213 }, { "player_name": "Faton Maloku", "ranking": 8214 }, { "player_name": "Halid Šabanović", "ranking": 8215 }, { "player_name": "Hussein Jabbar", "ranking": 8216 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.65, "expected_assists": 0.65, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 317, "interceptions": 4, "tackles": 9, "avg_rating": 79.59, "possession_estimated_pct": 44.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 5.9 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Michael Olise", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 144000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Hussein Ali" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.405, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.719, "xg_contribution": 0.468, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hussein Ali", "role": "RB", "market_value": 370000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.281 } ], "duel_analysis": "Michael Olise (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Hussein Ali in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 72%. The quality gap is significant (€144M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.468 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Bradley Barcola", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 68000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.868, "defenders": [ "Merchas Doski" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.422, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.716, "xg_contribution": 0.5228, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Merchas Doski", "role": "LB", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.284 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bradley Barcola (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against Merchas Doski in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 72%. The quality gap is significant (€68M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.523 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Ousmane Dembélé", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 97000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.892, "defenders": [ "Ali Jasim" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.406, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.623, "xg_contribution": 0.0776, "shots_in_zone": 2.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ali Jasim", "role": "CM", "market_value": 515000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.377 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ousmane Dembélé (CAM) has a clear attacking advantage against Ali Jasim in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 62%. The quality gap is significant (€97M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.078 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Kylian Mbappé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 191000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Akam Hashem", "Zaid Tahseen" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.408, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.387, "xg_contribution": 0.6743, "shots_in_zone": 2.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Akam Hashem", "role": "CB", "market_value": 720000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.613 }, { "player": "Zaid Tahseen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 565000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.613 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kylian Mbappé (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Akam Hashem and Zaid Tahseen in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€191M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.674 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Adrien Rabiot", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 17300000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.604, "defenders": [ "Ali Jasim" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.406, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.525, "xg_contribution": 0.1179, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ali Jasim", "role": "CM", "market_value": 515000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.475 } ], "duel_analysis": "Adrien Rabiot (CDM) is slightly favored against Ali Jasim in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€17M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.118 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ali Al-Hamadi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.419, "defenders": [ "Dayot Upamecano", "William Saliba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.877, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1504, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dayot Upamecano", "role": "CB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "William Saliba", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ali Al-Hamadi (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dayot Upamecano and William Saliba in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €80M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.150 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Amir Al-Ammari", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 935000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.412, "defenders": [ "Jules Koundé" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.861, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.258, "xg_contribution": 0.0972, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jules Koundé", "role": "RB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.742 } ], "duel_analysis": "Amir Al-Ammari (LM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jules Koundé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €64M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.097 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Zidane Iqbal", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 1000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.412, "defenders": [ "Lucas Digne" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.468, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.443, "xg_contribution": 0.1322, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucas Digne", "role": "LB", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.557 } ], "duel_analysis": "Zidane Iqbal (RM) is evenly matched against Lucas Digne in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.132 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ali Jasim", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 515000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.406, "defenders": [ "Adrien Rabiot" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.604, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.325, "xg_contribution": 0.0849, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrien Rabiot", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 17300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.675 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ali Jasim (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Adrien Rabiot in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €17M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.085 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.772, "away_midfield_power": 0.435, "home_creative_power": 0.864, "away_creative_power": 0.41, "home_defensive_power": 0.935, "away_defensive_power": 0.349, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.64, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Michael Olise", "Adrien Rabiot", "Manu Koné" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Amir Al-Ammari", "Ibrahim Bayesh", "Zidane Iqbal", "Ali Jasim" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 55.2, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 44.8, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 5.9, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "home_throughball_threat": 3.2, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Michael Olise vs Zidane Iqbal", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.06, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.942 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.07, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "formation_verdict": "4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition." }, "home_lambda": 4.8, "away_lambda": 0.65, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Michael Olise": { "opponents": [ "Hussein Ali", "Amir Al-Ammari" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bradley Barcola": { "opponents": [ "Merchas Doski" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ousmane Dembélé": { "opponents": [ "Ali Jasim" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kylian Mbappé": { "opponents": [ "Akam Hashem", "Zaid Tahseen" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Adrien Rabiot": { "opponents": [ "Ali Jasim", "Zidane Iqbal" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dayot Upamecano": { "opponents": [ "Ali Al-Hamadi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "William Saliba": { "opponents": [ "Ali Al-Hamadi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jules Koundé": { "opponents": [ "Amir Al-Ammari" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lucas Digne": { "opponents": [ "Zidane Iqbal" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Manu Koné": { "opponents": [ "Ibrahim Bayesh" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Mike Maignan": { "opponents": [ "Aymen Hussein", "Ali Al-Hamadi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Hussein Ali": { "opponents": [ "Michael Olise" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Merchas Doski": { "opponents": [ "Bradley Barcola" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ali Jasim": { "opponents": [ "Ousmane Dembélé", "Adrien Rabiot" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Akam Hashem": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Zaid Tahseen": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ali Al-Hamadi": { "opponents": [ "Dayot Upamecano", "William Saliba" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Amir Al-Ammari": { "opponents": [ "Jules Koundé", "Michael Olise" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Zidane Iqbal": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Digne", "Adrien Rabiot" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ibrahim Bayesh": { "opponents": [ "Manu Koné" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Jalal Hassan": { "opponents": [ "Ousmane Dembélé", "Bradley Barcola" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Aymen Hussein": { "opponents": [ "William Saliba", "Dayot Upamecano" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Michael Olise vs Zidane Iqbal). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.86, Away: 0.46. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0246, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9234, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1015, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.123, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0103, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.892, "home_midfield_factor": 1.06, "away_midfield_factor": 0.942, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8059, "away_avg_quality": 0.4107, "avg_quality_gap": 0.3952, "squad_value_gap_log": 3.8478, "top5_value_gap_log": 3.9178, "attack_value_gap_log": 4.0241, "elite_count_gap": 8, "combined_quality_gap": 0.6865, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.95, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.6, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1121, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0252, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.6865, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1766, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9414, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 4.295, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.675, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 4.2951, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.6752, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 4.8, "final_away_lambda": 0.65 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-22T13:37:21Z" }