{
  "match_info": {
    "home_team": "Norway",
    "away_team": "Senegal",
    "tournament": "FIFA World Cup",
    "date": "20260622",
    "timezone": "America/New_York",
    "home_formation": "4-4-2",
    "away_formation": "4-3-3"
  },
  "prediction": {
    "most_likely_score": "2-0",
    "home_goals": 2,
    "away_goals": 0,
    "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1072,
    "top_5_scorelines": [
      {
        "score": "2-0",
        "probability": 0.1072
      },
      {
        "score": "2-1",
        "probability": 0.0982
      },
      {
        "score": "1-0",
        "probability": 0.0969
      },
      {
        "score": "1-1",
        "probability": 0.0887
      },
      {
        "score": "3-0",
        "probability": 0.0791
      }
    ],
    "scoreline_probabilities": {
      "0-0": 0.0438,
      "0-1": 0.0401,
      "0-2": 0.0184,
      "0-3": 0.0056,
      "0-4": 0.0013,
      "1-0": 0.0969,
      "1-1": 0.0887,
      "1-2": 0.0406,
      "1-3": 0.0124,
      "1-4": 0.0028,
      "1-5": 0.0005,
      "2-0": 0.1072,
      "2-1": 0.0982,
      "2-2": 0.045,
      "2-3": 0.0137,
      "2-4": 0.0031,
      "2-5": 0.0006,
      "3-0": 0.0791,
      "3-1": 0.0724,
      "3-2": 0.0332,
      "3-3": 0.0101,
      "3-4": 0.0023,
      "4-0": 0.0437,
      "4-1": 0.0401,
      "4-2": 0.0183,
      "4-3": 0.0056,
      "4-4": 0.0013,
      "5-0": 0.0194,
      "5-1": 0.0177,
      "5-2": 0.0081,
      "5-3": 0.0025,
      "5-4": 0.0006,
      "6-0": 0.0071,
      "6-1": 0.0065,
      "6-2": 0.003,
      "6-3": 0.0009,
      "7-0": 0.0023,
      "7-1": 0.0021,
      "7-2": 0.0009,
      "8-0": 0.0006,
      "8-1": 0.0006
    },
    "outcome": {
      "home_win": 0.6683,
      "draw": 0.189,
      "away_win": 0.1428
    },
    "markets": {
      "over_2_5_goals": 0.605,
      "under_2_5_goals": 0.395,
      "btts_yes": 0.5343,
      "btts_no": 0.4657,
      "home_clean_sheet": 0.4001,
      "away_clean_sheet": 0.1094
    },
    "home_ratings": {
      "DR": 80.73,
      "MCR": 88.3,
      "ATR": 90.42,
      "GK": 82.51
    },
    "away_ratings": {
      "DR": 84.42,
      "MCR": 85.48,
      "ATR": 79.84,
      "GK": 86.83
    },
    "insights": {
      "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Norway vs Senegal. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.",
      "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Erling Haaland (2)",
      "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Martin Ødegaard vs Lamine Camara will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.77, Away: 0.67. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest."
    },
    "confidence": 0.81,
    "home_lambda": 2.213,
    "away_lambda": 0.916
  },
  "pregame_baseline": {
    "fair_win_probability": {
      "home_win": 0.6683,
      "draw": 0.189,
      "away_win": 0.1428
    },
    "favorite": "Norway",
    "favorite_win_probability": 0.6683,
    "fair_spread": 1.297,
    "fair_total": 3.129,
    "prop_estimates": [
      {
        "market": "team_total_goals",
        "selection": "Norway",
        "estimate": 2.213,
        "probability": null,
        "unit": "goals"
      },
      {
        "market": "team_total_goals",
        "selection": "Senegal",
        "estimate": 0.916,
        "probability": null,
        "unit": "goals"
      },
      {
        "market": "over_2_5_goals",
        "selection": "yes",
        "estimate": 2.5,
        "probability": 0.605,
        "unit": "probability"
      },
      {
        "market": "both_teams_to_score",
        "selection": "yes",
        "estimate": 1.0,
        "probability": 0.5343,
        "unit": "probability"
      },
      {
        "market": "clean_sheet",
        "selection": "Norway",
        "estimate": 1.0,
        "probability": 0.4001,
        "unit": "probability"
      },
      {
        "market": "clean_sheet",
        "selection": "Senegal",
        "estimate": 1.0,
        "probability": 0.1094,
        "unit": "probability"
      },
      {
        "market": "anytime_goal",
        "selection": "Erling Haaland (Norway)",
        "estimate": 1.8072,
        "probability": 0.9323,
        "unit": "xG"
      },
      {
        "market": "anytime_goal",
        "selection": "Lamine Camara (Senegal)",
        "estimate": 0.3203,
        "probability": 0.0,
        "unit": "xG"
      },
      {
        "market": "assist",
        "selection": "David Møller Wolfe (Norway)",
        "estimate": 0.4758,
        "probability": 0.0962,
        "unit": "xA"
      },
      {
        "market": "assist",
        "selection": "Sadio Mané (Senegal)",
        "estimate": 0.0464,
        "probability": 0.0,
        "unit": "xA"
      }
    ],
    "expected_pace": {
      "tempo": "high",
      "expected_total_goals": 3.129,
      "expected_total_shots": 22,
      "expected_total_passes": 932,
      "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.6,
      "possession_home_pct": 50.4,
      "possession_away_pct": 49.6,
      "notes": "possession projects near even"
    },
    "expected_game_script": {
      "favorite": "Norway",
      "favorite_win_probability": 0.6683,
      "script": "Norway is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.30 goals and fair total 3.13.",
      "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 11 first-half attempts.",
      "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Senegal must keep the match inside one goal.",
      "late_game": "A Norway lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live."
    },
    "key_matchup_thesis": "Norway chance creation leans on Erling Haaland against Moussa Niakhaté, Kalidou Koulibaly in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.",
    "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [
      "Norway: starters carry the main goal usage through Erling Haaland (2); bench watchlist: Jørgen Strand Larsen, Andreas Schjelderup, Oscar Bobb.",
      "Senegal: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Iliman Ndiaye, Ismaïla Sarr, Habib Diarra.",
      "Assist usage should flow through Julian Ryerson; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations."
    ],
    "pregame_play_by_play": [
      "0-15: Norway tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.",
      "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 11 total first-half shots, and 1.56 first-half xG pace.",
      "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.",
      "70-90: If Senegal is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal."
    ],
    "invalidation_triggers": [
      "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Norway.",
      "Senegal wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.",
      "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.",
      "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis."
    ],
    "top_3_risk_factors": [
      {
        "factor": "Low-event scoring variance",
        "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability."
      },
      {
        "factor": "Late lineup or role change",
        "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates."
      },
      {
        "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility",
        "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly."
      }
    ]
  },
  "teams": {
    "Norway": {
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "players": {
        "Erling Haaland": {
          "player_id": 839956,
          "position": "F",
          "position_depth": "F",
          "is_starter": true,
          "shirt_number": 9,
          "height": 194,
          "market_value": 218000000,
          "stats": {
            "expected_goals": 1.8072,
            "goal_rate": 1.7978,
            "goals": 2,
            "shots_on_target": 3,
            "expected_assists": 0.0903,
            "key_pass": 1,
            "rating": 98.1468,
            "minutes": 91,
            "total_shots": 3,
            "duels_won": 6,
            "aerial_won": 2,
            "total_pass": 10,
            "accurate_pass": 5,
            "total_long_balls": 1,
            "accurate_long_balls": 0,
            "total_opp_half_passes": 8,
            "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4,
            "crosses_total": 0,
            "crosses_accurate": 0,
            "touches": 21,
            "possession_lost": 6.5296,
            "dispossessed": 1.12,
            "duels_lost": 3,
            "aerial_lost": 1,
            "total_contest": 2,
            "won_contest": 2,
            "ball_recovery": 2,
            "challenges_lost": 2,
            "fouls": 2,
            "fouls_drawn": 2,
            "assists": 0,
            "shots_off_target": 1,
            "interceptions": 0,
            "tackles_won": 0,
            "tackles": 0,
            "clearances": 1,
            "blocks": 2,
            "big_chances_created": 1,
            "big_chances_missed": 2,
            "xgot": 1.5904,
            "offsides": 1,
            "ball_carries": 6,
            "total_progression": 20,
            "progressive_carries": 1,
            "dribbles_attempted": 2,
            "dribbles_successful": 0.7,
            "crosses_attempted": 0.0,
            "duel_win_rate": 0.395,
            "pressing_faced": "LOW",
            "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle",
            "numerical_situation": "1v2",
            "opponent_defenders": "Moussa Niakhaté, Kalidou Koulibaly",
            "opponent_faced": "Moussa Niakhaté, Kalidou Koulibaly",
            "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel",
            "projected_goals": 2,
            "goal_probability": 0.9323,
            "projected_assists": 0,
            "assist_probability": 0.0756,
            "fifa_overall": 90.0
          },
          "latest_10_games": [
            {
              "match_id": 15186773,
              "match_date": "2026-06-16",
              "home_team": "Iraq",
              "away_team": "Norway",
              "team_side": "away",
              "is_starting_11": 1,
              "team": "Norway",
              "opponent": "Iraq",
              "stats": {
                "minutes": 90,
                "rating": 8.1,
                "goal_rate": 2.0,
                "goals": 2,
                "assists": 0,
                "expected_goals": 1.8475,
                "expected_assists": 0.0662,
                "total_shots": 5,
                "shots_on_target": 4,
                "shots_off_target": 1,
                "total_pass": 9,
                "accurate_pass": 4,
                "key_pass": 1,
                "clearances": 1,
                "aerial_won": 3,
                "duels_won": 7,
                "ball_recovery": 2
              },
              "has_player_stats": true,
              "league_name": "FIFA World Cup",
              "league_id": "16",
              "league_slug": "world-championship",
              "league_country": "World",
              "season_id": "58210",
              "season_name": "World Cup 2026",
              "season_year": "2026"
            },
            {
              "match_id": 14023936,
              "match_date": "2026-05-19",
              "home_team": "Bournemouth",
              "away_team": "Manchester City",
              "team_side": "away",
              "is_starting_11": 1,
              "team": "Manchester City",
              "opponent": "Bournemouth",
              "stats": {
                "minutes": 90,
                "rating": 7.0,
                "goal_rate": 1.0,
                "goals": 1,
                "assists": 0,
                "expected_goals": 0.2337,
                "expected_assists": 0.5618,
                "total_shots": 2,
                "shots_on_target": 1,
                "total_pass": 15,
                "accurate_pass": 12,
                "key_pass": 1,
                "clearances": 3,
                "aerial_won": 1,
                "duels_won": 3,
                "ball_recovery": 2
              },
              "has_player_stats": true,
              "league_name": "Premier League",
              "league_id": "17",
              "league_slug": "premier-league",
              "league_country": "England",
              "season_id": "76986",
              "season_name": "Premier League 25/26",
              "season_year": "25/26"
            },
            {
              "match_id": 14023946,
              "match_date": "2026-05-09",
              "home_team": "Manchester City",
              "away_team": "Brentford",
              "team_side": "home",
              "is_starting_11": 1,
              "team": "Manchester City",
              "opponent": "Brentford",
              "stats": {
                "minutes": 90,
                "rating": 6.9,
                "goal_rate": 1.0,
                "goals": 1,
                "assists": 1,
                "expected_goals": 1.2207,
                "expected_assists": 0.093,
                "total_shots": 5,
                "shots_on_target": 4,
                "shots_off_target": 1,
                "total_pass": 7,
                "accurate_pass": 4,
                "key_pass": 2,
                "ball_recovery": 1
              },
              "has_player_stats": true,
              "league_name": "Premier League",
              "league_id": "17",
              "league_slug": "premier-league",
              "league_country": "England",
              "season_id": "76986",
              "season_name": "Premier League 25/26",
              "season_year": "25/26"
            },
            {
              "match_id": 15631365,
              "match_date": "2026-03-17",
              "home_team": "Manchester City",
              "away_team": "Real Madrid",
              "team_side": "home",
              "is_starting_11": 1,
              "team": "Manchester City",
              "opponent": "Real Madrid",
              "stats": {
                "minutes": 56,
                "rating": 7.1,
                "goal_rate": 1.0,
                "goals": 1,
                "assists": 0,
                "expected_goals": 1.1362,
                "expected_assists": 0.0018,
                "total_shots": 7,
                "shots_on_target": 5,
                "shots_off_target": 1,
                "total_pass": 6,
                "accurate_pass": 2,
                "clearances": 1,
                "aerial_won": 2,
                "duels_won": 2,
                "ball_recovery": 1
              },
              "has_player_stats": true,
              "league_name": "UEFA Champions League",
              "league_id": "7",
              "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league",
              "league_country": "Europe",
              "season_id": "76953",
              "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26",
              "season_year": "25/26"
            },
            {
              "match_id": 15631329,
              "match_date": "2026-03-11",
              "home_team": "Real Madrid",
              "away_team": "Manchester City",
              "team_side": "away",
              "is_starting_11": 1,
              "team": "Manchester City",
              "opponent": "Real Madrid",
              "stats": {
                "minutes": 82,
                "rating": 6.1,
                "assists": 0,
                "expected_assists": 0.0065,
                "total_shots": 0,
                "total_pass": 7,
                "accurate_pass": 3,
                "ball_recovery": 1
              },
              "has_player_stats": true,
              "league_name": "UEFA Champions League",
              "league_id": "7",
              "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league",
              "league_country": "Europe",
              "season_id": "76953",
              "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26",
              "season_year": "25/26"
            },
            {
              "match_id": 13233679,
              "match_date": "2025-11-16",
              "home_team": "Italy",
              "away_team": "Norway",
              "team_side": "away",
              "is_starting_11": 1,
              "team": "Norway",
              "opponent": "Italy",
              "stats": {
                "minutes": 89,
                "rating": 8.6,
                "goal_rate": 2.0,
                "goals": 2,
                "assists": 0,
                "total_shots": 2,
                "shots_on_target": 2,
                "total_pass": 16,
                "accurate_pass": 10,
                "clearances": 1,
                "aerial_won": 4,
                "duels_won": 5,
                "ball_recovery": 3
              },
              "has_player_stats": true,
              "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA",
              "league_id": "11",
              "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa",
              "league_country": "Europe",
              "season_id": "69427",
              "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026",
              "season_year": "2026"
            }
          ],
          "ranking": {
            "global_player_rank": 5,
            "combined_rank_score": 11.0,
            "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv",
            "ranking_status": "combined",
            "sofascore_rank": 12.0,
            "sofascore_rating": 8.2125,
            "sofascore_appearances": 8.0,
            "fifa_rank": 10.0,
            "fifa_overall": 90.0,
            "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings",
            "match_squad_rank": 1,
            "squad_role": "starter",
            "projected_match_rating": 8.1468,
            "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv",
            "player_name": "Erling Haaland",
            "ranking_neighbors": {
              "upper": [
                {
                  "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo",
                  "ranking": 1
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Lamine Yamal",
                  "ranking": 2
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Maximiliano Gutiérrez",
                  "ranking": 3
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé",
                  "ranking": 4
                }
              ],
              "lower": [
                {
                  "player_name": "Pedri",
                  "ranking": 6
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Nico López",
                  "ranking": 7
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Andy Vidal",
                  "ranking": 8
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "James Rodríguez",
                  "ranking": 9
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Memphis Depay",
                  "ranking": 10
                }
              ]
            }
          }
        },
        "Alexander Sørloth": {
          "player_id": 309078,
          "position": "F",
          "position_depth": "F",
          "is_starter": true,
          "shirt_number": 7,
          "height": 195,
          "market_value": 18600000,
          "stats": {
            "expected_goals": 0.197,
            "goal_rate": 0.0004,
            "goals": 0,
            "shots_on_target": 0,
            "expected_assists": 0.0202,
            "key_pass": 1,
            "rating": 90.2633,
            "minutes": 62,
            "total_shots": 2,
            "duels_won": 3,
            "aerial_won": 2,
            "total_pass": 13,
            "accurate_pass": 10,
            "total_long_balls": 1,
            "accurate_long_balls": 1,
            "total_opp_half_passes": 6,
            "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4,
            "crosses_total": 0,
            "crosses_accurate": 0,
            "touches": 17,
            "possession_lost": 6.7904,
            "dispossessed": 1.2421,
            "duels_lost": 5,
            "aerial_lost": 2,
            "total_contest": 3,
            "won_contest": 2,
            "ball_recovery": 1,
            "challenges_lost": 1,
            "fouls": 2,
            "fouls_drawn": 1,
            "assists": 0,
            "shots_off_target": 1,
            "interceptions": 0,
            "tackles_won": 1,
            "tackles": 1,
            "clearances": 1,
            "blocks": 0,
            "big_chances_created": 0,
            "big_chances_missed": 1,
            "xgot": 0.4865,
            "offsides": 1,
            "ball_carries": 4,
            "total_progression": 20,
            "progressive_carries": 1,
            "opponent_faced": "El Hadji Malick Diouf, Moussa Niakhaté",
            "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback",
            "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback",
            "projected_goals": 0,
            "goal_probability": 0.1707,
            "projected_assists": 0,
            "assist_probability": 0.0522,
            "fifa_overall": 84.0
          },
          "latest_10_games": [
            {
              "match_id": 15186773,
              "match_date": "2026-06-16",
              "home_team": "Iraq",
              "away_team": "Norway",
              "team_side": "away",
              "is_starting_11": 1,
              "team": "Norway",
              "opponent": "Iraq",
              "stats": {
                "minutes": 73,
                "rating": 6.1,
                "assists": 0,
                "expected_goals": 0.1879,
                "expected_assists": 0.0136,
                "total_shots": 2,
                "total_pass": 15,
                "accurate_pass": 12,
                "key_pass": 1,
                "aerial_won": 2,
                "duels_won": 3,
                "ball_recovery": 1
              },
              "has_player_stats": true,
              "league_name": "FIFA World Cup",
              "league_id": "16",
              "league_slug": "world-championship",
              "league_country": "World",
              "season_id": "58210",
              "season_name": "World Cup 2026",
              "season_year": "2026"
            },
            {
              "match_id": 14083735,
              "match_date": "2026-05-24",
              "home_team": "Villarreal",
              "away_team": "Atlético Madrid",
              "team_side": "away",
              "is_starting_11": 0,
              "team": "Atlético Madrid",
              "opponent": "Villarreal",
              "stats": {
                "minutes": 45,
                "rating": 6.1,
                "assists": 0,
                "expected_goals": 0.0744,
                "expected_assists": 0.0121,
                "total_shots": 1,
                "shots_on_target": 1,
                "total_pass": 6,
                "accurate_pass": 4,
                "clearances": 1
              },
              "has_player_stats": true,
              "league_name": "LaLiga",
              "league_id": "8",
              "league_slug": "laliga",
              "league_country": "Spain",
              "season_id": "77559",
              "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26",
              "season_year": "25/26"
            },
            {
              "match_id": 14083661,
              "match_date": "2026-05-17",
              "home_team": "Atlético Madrid",
              "away_team": "Girona FC",
              "team_side": "home",
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              "league_country": "Italy",
              "season_id": "76457",
              "season_name": "Serie A 25/26",
              "season_year": "25/26"
            }
          ],
          "ranking": {
            "global_player_rank": 15971,
            "combined_rank_score": 934.0,
            "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv",
            "ranking_status": "combined",
            "sofascore_rank": null,
            "sofascore_rating": null,
            "sofascore_appearances": 0.0,
            "fifa_rank": 1796.0,
            "fifa_overall": 76.0,
            "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings",
            "match_squad_rank": 7,
            "squad_role": "substitute",
            "projected_match_rating": 7.2588,
            "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv",
            "player_name": "Assane Diao",
            "ranking_neighbors": {
              "upper": [
                {
                  "player_name": "Richard Nkomo",
                  "ranking": 15966
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Kye Livingstone",
                  "ranking": 15967
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Ruslan Lisakovich",
                  "ranking": 15968
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Anthony Lopes",
                  "ranking": 15969
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Dirk Carlson",
                  "ranking": 15970
                }
              ],
              "lower": [
                {
                  "player_name": "Nahitan Nández",
                  "ranking": 15972
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Daniel Svensson",
                  "ranking": 15973
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Estiven Villalba",
                  "ranking": 15974
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Diego López",
                  "ranking": 15975
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Ibrokhim Ganikhonov",
                  "ranking": 15976
                }
              ]
            }
          }
        }
      },
      "team_totals": {
        "projected_goals": 0,
        "expected_goals": 0.92,
        "expected_assists": 0.3,
        "total_shots": 11,
        "shots_on_target": 5,
        "total_passes": 472,
        "interceptions": 7,
        "tackles": 19,
        "avg_rating": 84.29,
        "possession_estimated_pct": 49.6,
        "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3
      }
    }
  },
  "antagonist_report": {
    "home_attacking_duels": [
      {
        "attacker": "Erling Haaland",
        "attacker_role": "ST",
        "attacker_market_value": 218000000,
        "attacker_height": 194,
        "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9,
        "defenders": [
          "Moussa Niakhaté",
          "Kalidou Koulibaly"
        ],
        "defender_roles": [
          "CB",
          "CB"
        ],
        "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.515,
        "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle",
        "numerical_situation": "1v2",
        "duel_win_rate": 0.395,
        "xg_contribution": 1.4319,
        "shots_in_zone": 2.9,
        "dribbles_attempted": 2,
        "dribbles_successful": 0.7,
        "aerial_duels": 3,
        "aerial_won": 2.1,
        "crosses_in_zone": 0.0,
        "fouls_drawn": 1.5,
        "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW",
        "defender_stats": [
          {
            "player": "Moussa Niakhaté",
            "role": "CB",
            "market_value": 14600000,
            "tackles_attempted": 1.0,
            "tackles_won": 0.9,
            "fouls_committed": 0.5,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.8,
            "aerial_duels_won": 0.5,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.605
          },
          {
            "player": "Kalidou Koulibaly",
            "role": "CB",
            "market_value": 4400000,
            "tackles_attempted": 1.0,
            "tackles_won": 0.9,
            "fouls_committed": 0.6,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.6,
            "aerial_duels_won": 0.5,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.605
          }
        ],
        "duel_analysis": "Erling Haaland (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Moussa Niakhaté and Kalidou Koulibaly in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 40%. The quality gap is significant (€218M vs €10M avg). Projected xG contribution: 1.432 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball."
      },
      {
        "attacker": "Fredrik Aursnes",
        "attacker_role": "LM",
        "attacker_market_value": 14000000,
        "attacker_height": 179,
        "attacker_skill_quality": 0.568,
        "defenders": [
          "Sadio Mané"
        ],
        "defender_roles": [
          "RB"
        ],
        "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.47,
        "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel",
        "numerical_situation": "1v1",
        "duel_win_rate": 0.52,
        "xg_contribution": 0.1789,
        "shots_in_zone": 1.7,
        "dribbles_attempted": 3,
        "dribbles_successful": 1.4,
        "aerial_duels": 2,
        "aerial_won": 1.0,
        "crosses_in_zone": 2.3,
        "fouls_drawn": 1.1,
        "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW",
        "defender_stats": [
          {
            "player": "Sadio Mané",
            "role": "RB",
            "market_value": 5600000,
            "tackles_attempted": 2.0,
            "tackles_won": 1.5,
            "fouls_committed": 0.6,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.5,
            "aerial_duels_won": 1.0,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.48
          }
        ],
        "duel_analysis": "Fredrik Aursnes (LM) is slightly favored against Sadio Mané in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%.  Projected xG contribution: 0.179 — creating consistent moderate threat."
      },
      {
        "attacker": "Martin Ødegaard",
        "attacker_role": "RM",
        "attacker_market_value": 71000000,
        "attacker_height": 178,
        "attacker_skill_quality": 0.872,
        "defenders": [
          "El Hadji Malick Diouf"
        ],
        "defender_roles": [
          "LB"
        ],
        "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71,
        "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel",
        "numerical_situation": "1v1",
        "duel_win_rate": 0.513,
        "xg_contribution": 0.0295,
        "shots_in_zone": 1.7,
        "dribbles_attempted": 3,
        "dribbles_successful": 1.4,
        "aerial_duels": 2,
        "aerial_won": 1.0,
        "crosses_in_zone": 2.9,
        "fouls_drawn": 1.3,
        "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM",
        "defender_stats": [
          {
            "player": "El Hadji Malick Diouf",
            "role": "LB",
            "market_value": 29000000,
            "tackles_attempted": 2.2,
            "tackles_won": 1.7,
            "fouls_committed": 0.4,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.5,
            "aerial_duels_won": 1.0,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.487
          }
        ],
        "duel_analysis": "Martin Ødegaard (RM) is slightly favored against El Hadji Malick Diouf in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€71M vs €29M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.029 — creating consistent moderate threat."
      },
      {
        "attacker": "Sander Berge",
        "attacker_role": "CM",
        "attacker_market_value": 26000000,
        "attacker_height": 195,
        "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686,
        "defenders": [
          "Krépin Diatta",
          "Lamine Camara"
        ],
        "defender_roles": [
          "CDM",
          "CM"
        ],
        "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.629,
        "duel_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM",
        "numerical_situation": "1v2",
        "duel_win_rate": 0.386,
        "xg_contribution": 0.1307,
        "shots_in_zone": 1.5,
        "dribbles_attempted": 3,
        "dribbles_successful": 1.0,
        "aerial_duels": 2,
        "aerial_won": 1.4,
        "crosses_in_zone": 0.0,
        "fouls_drawn": 1.4,
        "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM",
        "defender_stats": [
          {
            "player": "Krépin Diatta",
            "role": "CDM",
            "market_value": 5800000,
            "tackles_attempted": 1.0,
            "tackles_won": 0.9,
            "fouls_committed": 0.6,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.5,
            "aerial_duels_won": 0.3,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.614
          },
          {
            "player": "Lamine Camara",
            "role": "CM",
            "market_value": 41000000,
            "tackles_attempted": 1.1,
            "tackles_won": 1.0,
            "fouls_committed": 0.4,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.5,
            "aerial_duels_won": 0.3,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.614
          }
        ],
        "duel_analysis": "Sander Berge (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Krépin Diatta and Lamine Camara in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 39%.  Projected xG contribution: 0.131 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball."
      }
    ],
    "away_attacking_duels": [
      {
        "attacker": "Ibrahim Mbaye",
        "attacker_role": "LW",
        "attacker_market_value": 29000000,
        "attacker_height": 175,
        "attacker_skill_quality": 0.71,
        "defenders": [
          "Antonio Nusa"
        ],
        "defender_roles": [
          "RB"
        ],
        "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725,
        "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle",
        "numerical_situation": "1v1",
        "duel_win_rate": 0.453,
        "xg_contribution": 0.1143,
        "shots_in_zone": 1.9,
        "dribbles_attempted": 4,
        "dribbles_successful": 1.6,
        "aerial_duels": 2,
        "aerial_won": 0.9,
        "crosses_in_zone": 2.4,
        "fouls_drawn": 1.3,
        "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH",
        "defender_stats": [
          {
            "player": "Antonio Nusa",
            "role": "RB",
            "market_value": 31000000,
            "tackles_attempted": 2.2,
            "tackles_won": 1.8,
            "fouls_committed": 0.4,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2,
            "clearances_in_zone": 1.0,
            "aerial_duels_won": 1.1,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.547
          }
        ],
        "duel_analysis": "Ibrahim Mbaye (LW) is evenly matched against Antonio Nusa in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%.  Projected xG contribution: 0.114 — with neither side clearly dominant."
      },
      {
        "attacker": "Idrissa Gana Gueye",
        "attacker_role": "RW",
        "attacker_market_value": 485000,
        "attacker_height": 174,
        "attacker_skill_quality": 0.406,
        "defenders": [
          "David Møller Wolfe"
        ],
        "defender_roles": [
          "LB"
        ],
        "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.49,
        "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle",
        "numerical_situation": "1v1",
        "duel_win_rate": 0.398,
        "xg_contribution": 0.1772,
        "shots_in_zone": 1.7,
        "dribbles_attempted": 3,
        "dribbles_successful": 1.1,
        "aerial_duels": 2,
        "aerial_won": 0.9,
        "crosses_in_zone": 1.8,
        "fouls_drawn": 1.1,
        "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW",
        "defender_stats": [
          {
            "player": "David Møller Wolfe",
            "role": "LB",
            "market_value": 7300000,
            "tackles_attempted": 2.0,
            "tackles_won": 1.8,
            "fouls_committed": 0.6,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.7,
            "aerial_duels_won": 1.1,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.602
          }
        ],
        "duel_analysis": "Idrissa Gana Gueye (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against David Møller Wolfe in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%.  Projected xG contribution: 0.177 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball."
      },
      {
        "attacker": "Nicolas Jackson",
        "attacker_role": "ST",
        "attacker_market_value": 39000000,
        "attacker_height": 186,
        "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775,
        "defenders": [
          "Torbjørn Heggem",
          "Kristoffer Ajer"
        ],
        "defender_roles": [
          "CB",
          "CB"
        ],
        "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.587,
        "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle",
        "numerical_situation": "1v2",
        "duel_win_rate": 0.253,
        "xg_contribution": 0.1024,
        "shots_in_zone": 2.3,
        "dribbles_attempted": 2,
        "dribbles_successful": 0.4,
        "aerial_duels": 3,
        "aerial_won": 1.8,
        "crosses_in_zone": 0.0,
        "fouls_drawn": 1.7,
        "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW",
        "defender_stats": [
          {
            "player": "Torbjørn Heggem",
            "role": "CB",
            "market_value": 12200000,
            "tackles_attempted": 1.0,
            "tackles_won": 1.1,
            "fouls_committed": 0.5,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.8,
            "aerial_duels_won": 0.6,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.747
          },
          {
            "player": "Kristoffer Ajer",
            "role": "CB",
            "market_value": 19500000,
            "tackles_attempted": 1.0,
            "tackles_won": 1.1,
            "fouls_committed": 0.5,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.9,
            "aerial_duels_won": 0.6,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.747
          }
        ],
        "duel_analysis": "Nicolas Jackson (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Torbjørn Heggem and Kristoffer Ajer in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€39M vs €16M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.102 — with very limited chance creation expected."
      },
      {
        "attacker": "Krépin Diatta",
        "attacker_role": "CDM",
        "attacker_market_value": 5800000,
        "attacker_height": 173,
        "attacker_skill_quality": 0.472,
        "defenders": [
          "Sander Berge"
        ],
        "defender_roles": [
          "CM"
        ],
        "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686,
        "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel",
        "numerical_situation": "1v1",
        "duel_win_rate": 0.244,
        "xg_contribution": 0.0366,
        "shots_in_zone": 0.8,
        "dribbles_attempted": 2,
        "dribbles_successful": 0.4,
        "aerial_duels": 2,
        "aerial_won": 0.9,
        "crosses_in_zone": 0.0,
        "fouls_drawn": 1.4,
        "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM",
        "defender_stats": [
          {
            "player": "Sander Berge",
            "role": "CM",
            "market_value": 26000000,
            "tackles_attempted": 2.1,
            "tackles_won": 2.3,
            "fouls_committed": 0.5,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.5,
            "aerial_duels_won": 1.1,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.756
          }
        ],
        "duel_analysis": "Krépin Diatta (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Sander Berge in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.037 — with very limited chance creation expected."
      },
      {
        "attacker": "Lamine Camara",
        "attacker_role": "CM",
        "attacker_market_value": 41000000,
        "attacker_height": 174,
        "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786,
        "defenders": [
          "Sander Berge"
        ],
        "defender_roles": [
          "CM"
        ],
        "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686,
        "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest",
        "numerical_situation": "1v1",
        "duel_win_rate": 0.405,
        "xg_contribution": 0.244,
        "shots_in_zone": 1.6,
        "dribbles_attempted": 3,
        "dribbles_successful": 1.1,
        "aerial_duels": 2,
        "aerial_won": 0.9,
        "crosses_in_zone": 0.0,
        "fouls_drawn": 1.4,
        "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM",
        "defender_stats": [
          {
            "player": "Sander Berge",
            "role": "CM",
            "market_value": 26000000,
            "tackles_attempted": 2.1,
            "tackles_won": 1.9,
            "fouls_committed": 0.5,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.5,
            "aerial_duels_won": 1.1,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.595
          }
        ],
        "duel_analysis": "Lamine Camara (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Sander Berge in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%.  Projected xG contribution: 0.244 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball."
      }
    ],
    "midfield_battle": {
      "home_midfield_power": 0.724,
      "away_midfield_power": 0.632,
      "home_creative_power": 0.709,
      "away_creative_power": 0.468,
      "home_defensive_power": 0.533,
      "away_defensive_power": 0.57,
      "home_dominance_ratio": 0.534,
      "home_midfield_count": 4,
      "away_midfield_count": 5,
      "home_midfield_players": [
        "Fredrik Aursnes",
        "Sander Berge",
        "Martin Ødegaard",
        "Julian Ryerson"
      ],
      "away_midfield_players": [
        "Idrissa Gana Gueye",
        "Lamine Camara",
        "Krépin Diatta",
        "Pape Gueye",
        "Sadio Mané"
      ],
      "possession_advantage": "neutral",
      "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.4,
      "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.6,
      "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3,
      "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3,
      "home_key_passes_projected": 5.8,
      "away_key_passes_projected": 4.3,
      "home_throughball_threat": 2.7,
      "away_throughball_threat": 2.0,
      "key_personal_duel": "Martin Ødegaard vs Lamine Camara",
      "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.015,
      "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.988
    },
    "formation_analysis": {
      "home_formation": "4-4-2",
      "away_formation": "4-3-3",
      "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05,
      "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05,
      "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality."
    },
    "home_lambda": 2.213,
    "away_lambda": 0.916,
    "home_top_threat_zones": [
      "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle",
      "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel"
    ],
    "away_top_threat_zones": [
      "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest",
      "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle"
    ],
    "home_player_antagonists": {
      "Erling Haaland": {
        "opponents": [
          "Moussa Niakhaté",
          "Kalidou Koulibaly"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle",
        "source": "attacking_duel"
      },
      "Fredrik Aursnes": {
        "opponents": [
          "Sadio Mané",
          "Pape Gueye"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel",
        "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing"
      },
      "Martin Ødegaard": {
        "opponents": [
          "El Hadji Malick Diouf",
          "Sadio Mané"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel",
        "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing"
      },
      "Sander Berge": {
        "opponents": [
          "Krépin Diatta",
          "Lamine Camara",
          "Idrissa Gana Gueye"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM",
        "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing"
      },
      "Antonio Nusa": {
        "opponents": [
          "Ibrahim Mbaye"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle",
        "source": "defensive_duel"
      },
      "David Møller Wolfe": {
        "opponents": [
          "Idrissa Gana Gueye"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle",
        "source": "defensive_duel"
      },
      "Torbjørn Heggem": {
        "opponents": [
          "Nicolas Jackson"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle",
        "source": "defensive_duel"
      },
      "Kristoffer Ajer": {
        "opponents": [
          "Nicolas Jackson"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle",
        "source": "defensive_duel"
      },
      "Julian Ryerson": {
        "opponents": [
          "Lamine Camara"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Midfield lane",
        "source": "midfield_pairing"
      },
      "Ørjan Nyland": {
        "opponents": [
          "Ibrahim Mbaye",
          "Nicolas Jackson"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Shape fallback",
        "source": "formation_fallback"
      },
      "Alexander Sørloth": {
        "opponents": [
          "El Hadji Malick Diouf",
          "Moussa Niakhaté"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Shape fallback",
        "source": "formation_fallback"
      }
    },
    "away_player_antagonists": {
      "Moussa Niakhaté": {
        "opponents": [
          "Erling Haaland"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle",
        "source": "defensive_duel"
      },
      "Kalidou Koulibaly": {
        "opponents": [
          "Erling Haaland"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle",
        "source": "defensive_duel"
      },
      "Sadio Mané": {
        "opponents": [
          "Fredrik Aursnes",
          "Martin Ødegaard"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel",
        "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing"
      },
      "El Hadji Malick Diouf": {
        "opponents": [
          "Martin Ødegaard"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel",
        "source": "defensive_duel"
      },
      "Krépin Diatta": {
        "opponents": [
          "Sander Berge"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM",
        "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing"
      },
      "Lamine Camara": {
        "opponents": [
          "Sander Berge",
          "Julian Ryerson"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM",
        "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing"
      },
      "Ibrahim Mbaye": {
        "opponents": [
          "Antonio Nusa"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle",
        "source": "attacking_duel"
      },
      "Idrissa Gana Gueye": {
        "opponents": [
          "David Møller Wolfe",
          "Sander Berge"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle",
        "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing"
      },
      "Nicolas Jackson": {
        "opponents": [
          "Torbjørn Heggem",
          "Kristoffer Ajer"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle",
        "source": "attacking_duel"
      },
      "Pape Gueye": {
        "opponents": [
          "Fredrik Aursnes"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Midfield lane",
        "source": "midfield_pairing"
      },
      "Edouard Mendy": {
        "opponents": [
          "Alexander Sørloth",
          "Antonio Nusa"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Shape fallback",
        "source": "formation_fallback"
      }
    },
    "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Martin Ødegaard vs Lamine Camara will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.77, Away: 0.67. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.",
    "lambda_factors": {
      "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0061,
      "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0218,
      "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18,
      "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.113,
      "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9678,
      "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9764,
      "home_midfield_factor": 1.015,
      "away_midfield_factor": 0.988,
      "stage_discount": 1.0,
      "quality_gap_applied": true,
      "home_avg_quality": 0.6701,
      "away_avg_quality": 0.6134,
      "avg_quality_gap": 0.0567,
      "squad_value_gap_log": 0.7288,
      "top5_value_gap_log": 0.7091,
      "attack_value_gap_log": 0.8874,
      "elite_count_gap": 1,
      "combined_quality_gap": 0.1153,
      "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2536,
      "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1614,
      "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0551,
      "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0829,
      "home_bench_players_modelled": 7,
      "away_bench_players_modelled": 7,
      "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false,
      "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false,
      "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.2131,
      "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.9159,
      "competition_calibration_applied": false,
      "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data",
      "competition_calibration_samples": 0,
      "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0,
      "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0,
      "neutral_share_preserved": true,
      "final_home_lambda": 2.213,
      "final_away_lambda": 0.916
    }
  },
  "home_standing": {
    "available": false,
    "team_position": null,
    "opponent_position": null,
    "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0,
    "attack_index": null,
    "defense_concede_index": null,
    "form_multiplier": null,
    "team_attack_rate_contextual": null,
    "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null,
    "team_ppg": null,
    "opponent_ppg": null
  },
  "away_standing": {
    "available": false,
    "team_position": null,
    "opponent_position": null,
    "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0,
    "attack_index": null,
    "defense_concede_index": null,
    "form_multiplier": null,
    "team_attack_rate_contextual": null,
    "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null,
    "team_ppg": null,
    "opponent_ppg": null
  },
  "timestamp": "2026-06-22T13:37:39Z"
}