{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Panama", "away_team": "Croatia", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260623", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1117, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1117 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1058 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0979 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0932 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0631 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0607, "0-1": 0.1058, "0-2": 0.0932, "0-3": 0.0546, "0-4": 0.024, "0-5": 0.0084, "0-6": 0.0025, "0-7": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.0631, "1-1": 0.1117, "1-2": 0.0979, "1-3": 0.0573, "1-4": 0.0252, "1-5": 0.0088, "1-6": 0.0026, "1-7": 0.0007, "2-0": 0.0333, "2-1": 0.0585, "2-2": 0.0514, "2-3": 0.0301, "2-4": 0.0132, "2-5": 0.0046, "2-6": 0.0014, "3-0": 0.0117, "3-1": 0.0205, "3-2": 0.018, "3-3": 0.0105, "3-4": 0.0046, "3-5": 0.0016, "4-0": 0.0031, "4-1": 0.0054, "4-2": 0.0047, "4-3": 0.0028, "4-4": 0.0012, "5-0": 0.0006, "5-1": 0.0011, "5-2": 0.001, "5-3": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2252, "draw": 0.2357, "away_win": 0.5391 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5322, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4678, "btts_yes": 0.5382, "btts_no": 0.4618, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1726, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3499 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 82.24, "MCR": 82.5, "ATR": 85.55, "GK": 76.7 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 84.97, "MCR": 86.76, "ATR": 88.43, "GK": 87.4 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Panama vs Croatia. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Yoel Bárcenas, Ivan Perišić", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (José Luis Rodríguez vs Petar Sučić). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.31, Away: 0.40. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.76, "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.757 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2252, "draw": 0.2357, "away_win": 0.5391 }, "favorite": "Croatia", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5391, "fair_spread": -0.707, "fair_total": 2.807, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Panama", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Croatia", "estimate": 1.757, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5322, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5382, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Panama", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1726, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Croatia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3499, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Andrés Andrade (Panama)", "estimate": 0.2603, "probability": 0.0796, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Josip Stanišić (Croatia)", "estimate": 0.4079, "probability": 0.1122, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Andrés Andrade (Panama)", "estimate": 0.2815, "probability": 0.1519, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ivan Perišić (Croatia)", "estimate": 0.1922, "probability": 0.3458, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.807, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 958, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.0, "possession_home_pct": 47.7, "possession_away_pct": 52.3, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Croatia", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5391, "script": "Croatia is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.71 goals and fair total 2.81.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Panama must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Croatia lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Croatia chance creation leans on Ante Budimir against Amir Murillo, Jiovany Ramos in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Panama: starters carry the main goal usage through Yoel Bárcenas; bench watchlist: Adalberto Carrasquilla, Eduardo Guerrero, Ismael Díaz.", "Croatia: starters carry the main goal usage through Ivan Perišić; bench watchlist: Luka Vušković, Igor Matanović, Franjo Ivanović.", "Assist usage should flow through Carlos Harvey, Ivan Perišić; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Croatia tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.40 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Panama is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Croatia.", "Panama wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Panama": { "formation": "3-4-3", "players": { "José Luis Rodríguez": { "player_id": 842253, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 180, "market_value": 2600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0976, "rating": 84.2347, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 17, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 13.7372, "dispossessed": 1.4718, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 3, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5495, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 87, "progressive_carries": 4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.471, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Luka Modrić", "opponent_faced": "Luka Modrić", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1185, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1571, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186687, "match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "Ghana", "away_team": "Panama", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Panama", "opponent": "Ghana", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15239047, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "FC Juárez", "away_team": "Atlético San Luis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Juárez", "opponent": "Atlético San Luis", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4216, "expected_assists": 0.053, "total_shots": 1, 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"ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Marcos Leonardo", "ranking": 14065 }, { "player_name": "Toma Tabatadze", "ranking": 14066 }, { "player_name": "Galeno", "ranking": 14067 }, { "player_name": "Paulo Gazzaniga", "ranking": 14068 }, { "player_name": "Rasmus Kristensen", "ranking": 14069 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bobir Abdikholikov", "ranking": 14071 }, { "player_name": "Lovro Majer", "ranking": 14072 }, { "player_name": "Richard Ríos", "ranking": 14073 }, { "player_name": "Pacha", "ranking": 14074 }, { "player_name": "Uğurcan Çakır", "ranking": 14075 } ] } } }, "Yoel Bárcenas": { "player_id": 833352, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 175, "market_value": 705000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0746, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0745, "rating": 86.8988, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 46, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, 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"antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2537, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0901, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186687, "match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "Ghana", "away_team": "Panama", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Panama", "opponent": "Ghana", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0817, "expected_assists": 0.0725, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 52, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15239042, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Tigres UANL", "away_team": "Mazatlán FC", 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"clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065555, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "SC Freiburg", "away_team": "RB Leipzig", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "SC Freiburg", "opponent": "RB Leipzig", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1224, "expected_assists": 0.5338, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 5, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065255, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Hamburger SV", "away_team": "SC Freiburg", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "SC Freiburg", "opponent": "Hamburger SV", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3608, "expected_assists": 0.1647, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632624, "match_date": "2026-05-07", "home_team": "SC Freiburg", "away_team": "Sporting Braga", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "SC Freiburg", "opponent": "Sporting Braga", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0548, "expected_assists": 0.182, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065240, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "SC Freiburg", "away_team": "VfL Wolfsburg", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "SC Freiburg", "opponent": "VfL Wolfsburg", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632622, "match_date": "2026-04-30", "home_team": "Sporting Braga", "away_team": "SC Freiburg", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "SC Freiburg", "opponent": "Sporting Braga", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1858, "expected_assists": 0.0604, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065228, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Borussia Dortmund", "away_team": "SC Freiburg", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "SC Freiburg", "opponent": "Borussia Dortmund", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1948, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632619, "match_date": "2026-04-16", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "SC Freiburg", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "SC Freiburg", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0404, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632615, "match_date": "2026-04-09", "home_team": "SC Freiburg", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "SC Freiburg", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1115, "expected_assists": 0.6319, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 18650, "combined_rank_score": 2932.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 902.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.4, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 4963.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7835, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Igor Matanović", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jeremy Frick", "ranking": 18645 }, { "player_name": "Herrando", "ranking": 18646 }, { "player_name": "Marvin Friedrich", "ranking": 18647 }, { "player_name": "Jeanuël Belocian", "ranking": 18648 }, { "player_name": "Diego Fagúndez", "ranking": 18649 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Diego Chará", "ranking": 18651 }, { "player_name": "Franco Fragapane", "ranking": 18652 }, { "player_name": "Florin Tănase", "ranking": 18653 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Rodríguez", "ranking": 18654 }, { "player_name": "Walter Mazzantti", "ranking": 18655 } ] } } }, "Petar Musa": { "player_id": 827668, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 26, "height": 190, "market_value": 13000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0799, "goal_rate": 0.2007, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 83.1329, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 2.2334, "dispossessed": 3.0513, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1077, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186504, "match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "Croatia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Croatia", "opponent": "England", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1425, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15171565, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "San Jose Earthquakes", "away_team": "FC Dallas", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Dallas", "opponent": "San Jose Earthquakes", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8924, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "MLS", "league_id": "242", "league_slug": "mls", "league_country": "USA", "season_id": "86668", "season_name": "MLS 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13233686, "match_date": "2025-11-17", "home_team": "Montenegro", "away_team": "Croatia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Croatia", "opponent": "Montenegro", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 16190, "combined_rank_score": 1039.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 318.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1761.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.1329, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Petar Musa", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Juan Fernando Quintero", "ranking": 16185 }, { "player_name": "Álex Moreno", "ranking": 16186 }, { "player_name": "Che Adams", "ranking": 16187 }, { "player_name": "Sikou Niakaté", "ranking": 16188 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Mavropanos", "ranking": 16189 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Diego Rico", "ranking": 16191 }, { "player_name": "Issa Diop", "ranking": 16192 }, { "player_name": "Sebastiano Luperto", "ranking": 16193 }, { "player_name": "Ignacio Malcorra", "ranking": 16194 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Gil", "ranking": 16195 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.76, "expected_assists": 0.67, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 8, "total_passes": 420, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 86.32, "possession_estimated_pct": 52.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.9 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Yoel Bárcenas", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 705000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.409, "defenders": [ "Josip Šutalo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.558, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.273, "xg_contribution": 0.0548, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Josip Šutalo", "role": "RB", "market_value": 13100000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.727 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yoel Bárcenas (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Josip Šutalo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 27%. Projected xG contribution: 0.055 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Carlos Harvey", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 630000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.408, "defenders": [ "Luka Modrić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.447, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.476, "xg_contribution": 0.0352, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luka Modrić", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.524 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Harvey (CM) is evenly matched against Luka Modrić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "José Luis Rodríguez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.432, "defenders": [ "Luka Modrić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.447, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.471, "xg_contribution": 0.0987, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luka Modrić", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.529 } ], "duel_analysis": "José Luis Rodríguez (CM) is evenly matched against Luka Modrić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.099 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Cristian Martínez", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 825000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.41, "defenders": [ "Josip Stanišić" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0405, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Josip Stanišić", "role": "LB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cristian Martínez (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Josip Stanišić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €39M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Cecilio Waterman", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 240000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.403, "defenders": [ "Joško Gvardiol" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.861, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.22, "xg_contribution": 0.0402, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Joško Gvardiol", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.78 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cecilio Waterman (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Joško Gvardiol in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 22%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €64M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.040 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "José Córdoba", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4700000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.458, "defenders": [ "Joško Gvardiol", "Marin Pongračić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.667, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0191, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Joško Gvardiol", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Marin Pongračić", "role": "CB", "market_value": 5900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "José Córdoba (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Joško Gvardiol and Marin Pongračić in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €35M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.019 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "César Blackman", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.432, "defenders": [ "Joško Gvardiol" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.861, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.209, "xg_contribution": 0.0177, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Joško Gvardiol", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.791 } ], "duel_analysis": "César Blackman (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Joško Gvardiol in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €64M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.018 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Petar Sučić", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Amir Murillo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.482, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.567, "xg_contribution": 0.009, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Amir Murillo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.433 } ], "duel_analysis": "Petar Sučić (LW) is slightly favored against Amir Murillo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €7M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.009 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Martin Baturina", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 28000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.702, "defenders": [ "Carlos Harvey" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.408, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.504, "xg_contribution": 0.0552, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Harvey", "role": "CM", "market_value": 630000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.496 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martin Baturina (CAM) is slightly favored against Carlos Harvey in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€28M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.055 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ivan Perišić", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 1200000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.415, "defenders": [ "Amir Murillo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.482, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.406, "xg_contribution": 0.1223, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Amir Murillo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.594 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ivan Perišić (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Amir Murillo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.122 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ante Budimir", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.432, "defenders": [ "Amir Murillo", "Jiovany Ramos" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.443, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.217, "xg_contribution": 0.2143, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Amir Murillo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.783 }, { "player": "Jiovany Ramos", "role": "CB", "market_value": 410000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.783 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ante Budimir (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Amir Murillo and Jiovany Ramos in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Projected xG contribution: 0.214 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.44, "away_midfield_power": 0.627, "home_creative_power": 0.395, "away_creative_power": 0.557, "home_defensive_power": 0.396, "away_defensive_power": 0.501, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.412, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "José Luis Rodríguez", "Yoel Bárcenas", "Cristian Martínez", "Carlos Harvey" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Luka Modrić", "Mateo Kovačić", "Martin Baturina", "Petar Sučić", "Ivan Perišić" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 47.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 52.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.9, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.8, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.3, "key_personal_duel": "José Luis Rodríguez vs Petar Sučić", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.972, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.031 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.757, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "RW vs CB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Yoel Bárcenas": { "opponents": [ "Josip Šutalo", "Mateo Kovačić" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carlos Harvey": { "opponents": [ "Luka Modrić", "Martin Baturina", "Ivan Perišić" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "José Luis Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Luka Modrić" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Cristian Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Josip Stanišić", "Petar Sučić" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Cecilio Waterman": { "opponents": [ "Joško Gvardiol" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "José Córdoba": { "opponents": [ "Joško Gvardiol", "Marin Pongračić" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "César Blackman": { "opponents": [ "Joško Gvardiol" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Amir Murillo": { "opponents": [ "Petar Sučić", "Ivan Perišić", "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jiovany Ramos": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Orlando Mosquera": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir", "Martin Baturina" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Andrés Andrade": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Josip Šutalo": { "opponents": [ "Yoel Bárcenas" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luka Modrić": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Harvey", "José Luis Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Josip Stanišić": { "opponents": [ "Cristian Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Joško Gvardiol": { "opponents": [ "Cecilio Waterman", "José Córdoba", "César Blackman" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marin Pongračić": { "opponents": [ "José Córdoba" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Petar Sučić": { "opponents": [ "Amir Murillo", "Cristian Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Martin Baturina": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Harvey" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ivan Perišić": { "opponents": [ "Amir Murillo", "Carlos Harvey" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ante Budimir": { "opponents": [ "Amir Murillo", "Jiovany Ramos" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mateo Kovačić": { "opponents": [ "Yoel Bárcenas" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Dominik Livaković": { "opponents": [ "Cecilio Waterman", "José Luis Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (José Luis Rodríguez vs Petar Sučić). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.31, Away: 0.40. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0051, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0223, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.088, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9333, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9799, "home_midfield_factor": 0.972, "away_midfield_factor": 1.031, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.427, "away_avg_quality": 0.5984, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1714, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.9429, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.9249, "attack_value_gap_log": -2.2439, "elite_count_gap": -2, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3137, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.6901, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.4392, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1014, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0538, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.3137, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0834, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9786, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.751, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.622, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.735, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.757, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.7514, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.6218, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.05, "final_away_lambda": 1.757 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-23T13:35:58Z" }