{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Colombia", "away_team": "DR Congo", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260623", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-3-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1155, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1155 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1091 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0966 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.092 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.068 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0657, "0-1": 0.068, "0-2": 0.036, "0-3": 0.0126, "0-4": 0.0033, "0-5": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.1091, "1-1": 0.1155, "1-2": 0.0604, "1-3": 0.0211, "1-4": 0.0055, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.092, "2-1": 0.0966, "2-2": 0.0507, "2-3": 0.0178, "2-4": 0.0047, "2-5": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0515, "3-1": 0.0541, "3-2": 0.0284, "3-3": 0.0099, "3-4": 0.0026, "3-5": 0.0005, "4-0": 0.0216, "4-1": 0.0227, "4-2": 0.0119, "4-3": 0.0042, "4-4": 0.0011, "5-0": 0.0073, "5-1": 0.0076, "5-2": 0.004, "5-3": 0.0014, "6-0": 0.002, "6-1": 0.0021, "6-2": 0.0011, "7-1": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5206, "draw": 0.2431, "away_win": 0.2363 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5137, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4863, "btts_yes": 0.5294, "btts_no": 0.4706, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3499, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1864 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 85.27, "MCR": 86.78, "ATR": 83.78, "GK": 88.32 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 82.88, "MCR": 82.55, "ATR": 86.47, "GK": 86.01 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Colombia vs DR Congo. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Jhon Arias, Yoane Wissa", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~51% possession expected (Luis Díaz vs Ngal'ayel Mukau). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.89, Away: 0.48. Home danger zone: CAM vs CM. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.76, "home_lambda": 1.68, "away_lambda": 1.05 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5206, "draw": 0.2431, "away_win": 0.2363 }, "favorite": "Colombia", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5206, "fair_spread": 0.63, "fair_total": 2.73, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Colombia", "estimate": 1.68, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "DR Congo", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5137, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5294, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Colombia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3499, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "DR Congo", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1864, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Daniel Muñoz (Colombia)", "estimate": 0.3634, "probability": 0.1258, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Yoane Wissa (DR Congo)", "estimate": 0.2877, "probability": 0.5699, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Luis Díaz (Colombia)", "estimate": 0.5688, "probability": 0.2795, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Arthur Masuaku (DR Congo)", "estimate": 0.3263, "probability": 0.2251, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.73, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 761, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.1, "possession_home_pct": 51.0, "possession_away_pct": 49.0, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Colombia", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5206, "script": "Colombia is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.63 goals and fair total 2.73.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; DR Congo must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Colombia lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Colombia chance creation leans on Luis Díaz against Ngal'ayel Mukau in CAM vs CM; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Colombia: starters carry the main goal usage through Jhon Arias; bench watchlist: Jhon Durán, Richard Ríos, Cucho Hernández.", "DR Congo: starters carry the main goal usage through Yoane Wissa; bench watchlist: Noah Sadiki, Simon Banza, Matthieu Epolo.", "Assist usage should flow through Luis Díaz, Arthur Masuaku; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Colombia tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.36 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If DR Congo is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Colombia.", "DR Congo wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Colombia": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Luis Javier Suárez": { "player_id": 914213, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 185, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1864, "goal_rate": 0.0187, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0881, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 83.7848, "minutes": 82, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 9.9474, "dispossessed": 1.6932, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5714, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.29, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Steve Kapuadi, Axel Tuanzebe", "opponent_faced": "Steve Kapuadi, Axel Tuanzebe", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1341, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0475, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186722, "match_date": "2026-06-18", "home_team": "Uzbekistan", "away_team": "Colombia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Colombia", "opponent": "Uzbekistan", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14288901, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "Sporting CP", "away_team": "Gil Vicente", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sporting CP", "opponent": "Gil Vicente", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2195, "expected_assists": 0.931, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Liga Portugal Betclic", "league_id": "238", "league_slug": "liga-portugal-betclic", "league_country": "Portugal", "season_id": "77806", "season_name": "Liga Portugal 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14288896, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Rio Ave", "away_team": "Sporting CP", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sporting CP", "opponent": "Rio Ave", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.1015, "expected_assists": 0.0994, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Liga Portugal Betclic", "league_id": "238", "league_slug": "liga-portugal-betclic", "league_country": "Portugal", "season_id": "77806", "season_name": "Liga Portugal 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14288884, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Sporting CP", "away_team": "Vitória SC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sporting CP", "opponent": "Vitória SC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 1.1208, "expected_assists": 0.8547, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Liga Portugal Betclic", "league_id": "238", "league_slug": "liga-portugal-betclic", "league_country": "Portugal", "season_id": "77806", "season_name": "Liga Portugal 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 16033937, "match_date": "2026-04-29", "home_team": "Sporting CP", "away_team": "Tondela", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sporting CP", "opponent": "Tondela", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5012, "expected_assists": 0.1104, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Liga Portugal Betclic", "league_id": "238", "league_slug": "liga-portugal-betclic", "league_country": "Portugal", "season_id": "77806", "season_name": "Liga Portugal 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632631, "match_date": "2026-04-15", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Sporting CP", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sporting CP", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632086, "match_date": "2026-04-07", "home_team": "Sporting CP", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sporting CP", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2482, "expected_assists": 0.0634, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631335, "match_date": "2026-03-11", "home_team": "Bodø/Glimt", "away_team": "Sporting CP", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sporting CP", "opponent": "Bodø/Glimt", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1857, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14169223, "match_date": "2025-09-09", "home_team": "Venezuela", "away_team": "Colombia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Colombia", "opponent": "Venezuela", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 9.9, "goal_rate": 4.0, "goals": 4, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13856222, "match_date": "2025-06-06", "home_team": "Colombia", "away_team": "Peru", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Colombia", "opponent": "Peru", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 15344, "combined_rank_score": 834.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 237.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1083, "sofascore_appearances": 12.0, "fifa_rank": 1432.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.7848, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Luis Javier Suárez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Myeong-heui Choi", "ranking": 15339 }, { "player_name": "Moses Simon", "ranking": 15340 }, { "player_name": "Luis Rioja", "ranking": 15341 }, { "player_name": "Saïd Benrahma", "ranking": 15342 }, { "player_name": "Christopher Díaz", "ranking": 15343 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Oğuz Aydın", "ranking": 15345 }, { "player_name": "Shahzod Akramov", "ranking": 15346 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Soler", "ranking": 15347 }, { "player_name": "Óscar Valentín", "ranking": 15348 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Bragança", "ranking": 15349 } ] } } }, "Luis Díaz": { "player_id": 883537, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 178, "market_value": 76000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.5688, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3321, "rating": 93.3014, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 8, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 66, "possession_lost": 13.9736, "dispossessed": 2.5275, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 1.034, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.501, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 147, "progressive_carries": 6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.518, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ngal'ayel Mukau", "opponent_faced": "Ngal'ayel Mukau", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1657, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.2795, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186722, "match_date": "2026-06-18", "home_team": "Uzbekistan", "away_team": "Colombia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Colombia", "opponent": "Uzbekistan", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 8.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3605, "expected_assists": 0.6216, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14065556, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "1. FC Köln", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "1. 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"bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.98, "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 87.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 797, "combined_rank_score": 150.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 62.0, "fifa_overall": 87.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6749, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Théo Bongonda", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Shea Lacey", "ranking": 792 }, { "player_name": "Ruan Pereira Duarte", "ranking": 793 }, { "player_name": "Karim Dermane", "ranking": 794 }, { "player_name": "Oliver Valaker Edvardsen", "ranking": 795 }, { "player_name": "Cauly", "ranking": 796 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Anis Ben Slimane", "ranking": 798 }, { "player_name": "Gustavo Martins", "ranking": 799 }, { "player_name": "Léo Linck", "ranking": 800 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Moreno", "ranking": 801 }, { "player_name": "Milan Iloski", "ranking": 802 } ] } } }, "Simon Banza": { "player_id": 825945, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 189, "market_value": 10400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 87.53, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.5746, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.575, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.65, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186709, "match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "Portugal", "away_team": "DR Congo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "DR Congo", "opponent": "Portugal", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3696, "combined_rank_score": 367.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 563.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.53, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Simon Banza", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rodrigo Pérez", "ranking": 3691 }, { "player_name": "André Gonçalves", "ranking": 3692 }, { "player_name": "Luciano Paredes", "ranking": 3693 }, { "player_name": "Julian Ceballos", "ranking": 3694 }, { "player_name": "Shuhei Tokumoto", "ranking": 3695 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ramazan Orazov", "ranking": 3697 }, { "player_name": "Mohannad Abu Taha", "ranking": 3698 }, { "player_name": "Fahad Talib", "ranking": 3699 }, { "player_name": "Mohammad Ali Hasheesh", "ranking": 3700 }, { "player_name": "Ricardo Phillips", "ranking": 3701 } ] } } }, "Fiston Mayele": { "player_id": 1007556, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 185, "market_value": 1700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1346, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 87.6564, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16150283, "match_date": "2026-05-20", "home_team": "Pyramids FC", "away_team": "Smouha", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Pyramids FC", "opponent": "Smouha", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3649, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Egyptian Premier League", "league_id": "808", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "Egypt", "season_id": "79317", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1146, "combined_rank_score": 361.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 469.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6564, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Fiston Mayele", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Thalente Mbatha", "ranking": 1141 }, { "player_name": "Nkosinathi Sibisi", "ranking": 1142 }, { "player_name": "Valentín Vada", "ranking": 1143 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Esteves", "ranking": 1144 }, { "player_name": "Fábio Martins", "ranking": 1145 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Yael Padilla", "ranking": 1147 }, { "player_name": "Diego Hernández", "ranking": 1148 }, { "player_name": "Facundo Almada", "ranking": 1149 }, { "player_name": "José Alvarado", "ranking": 1150 }, { "player_name": "Jesús Murillo", "ranking": 1151 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.05, "expected_assists": 0.67, "total_shots": 9, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 255, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 83.73, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "James Rodríguez", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.419, "defenders": [ "Chancel Mbemba", "Steve Kapuadi" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.427, "duel_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.26, "xg_contribution": 0.0654, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Chancel Mbemba", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.74 }, { "player": "Steve Kapuadi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.74 } ], "duel_analysis": "James Rodríguez (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Chancel Mbemba and Steve Kapuadi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. Projected xG contribution: 0.065 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jhon Arias", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 16100000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.591, "defenders": [ "Arthur Masuaku", "Steve Kapuadi" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.428, "duel_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.313, "xg_contribution": 0.1335, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Arthur Masuaku", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.687 }, { "player": "Steve Kapuadi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.687 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jhon Arias (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Arthur Masuaku and Steve Kapuadi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 31%. Projected xG contribution: 0.133 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Luis Díaz", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 76000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.878, "defenders": [ "Ngal'ayel Mukau" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.57, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.518, "xg_contribution": 0.3682, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ngal'ayel Mukau", "role": "CM", "market_value": 14200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.482 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luis Díaz (CAM) is slightly favored against Ngal'ayel Mukau in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€76M vs €14M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.368 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Luis Javier Suárez", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Steve Kapuadi", "Axel Tuanzebe" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.445, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.29, "xg_contribution": 0.1809, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Steve Kapuadi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.71 }, { "player": "Axel Tuanzebe", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.71 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luis Javier Suárez (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Steve Kapuadi and Axel Tuanzebe in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.181 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jefferson Lerma", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 5500000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.468, "defenders": [ "Samuel Moutoussamy" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.42, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "xg_contribution": 0.146, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Samuel Moutoussamy", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.554 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jefferson Lerma (CDM) is evenly matched against Samuel Moutoussamy in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Yoane Wissa", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Johan Mojica", "Jhon Lucumí" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.539, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.218, "xg_contribution": 0.2049, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Johan Mojica", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.782 }, { "player": "Jhon Lucumí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.782 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yoane Wissa (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Johan Mojica and Jhon Lucumí in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Projected xG contribution: 0.205 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Arthur Masuaku", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.424, "defenders": [ "Gustavo Puerta" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.531, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.384, "xg_contribution": 0.0683, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gustavo Puerta", "role": "RB", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.616 } ], "duel_analysis": "Arthur Masuaku (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Gustavo Puerta in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.068 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Chancel Mbemba", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 1800000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.422, "defenders": [ "Davinson Sánchez" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.595, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.302, "xg_contribution": 0.0242, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Davinson Sánchez", "role": "LB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.698 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chancel Mbemba (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Davinson Sánchez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. Projected xG contribution: 0.024 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Samuel Moutoussamy", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.42, "defenders": [ "Jefferson Lerma" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.468, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "xg_contribution": 0.0437, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 1, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jefferson Lerma", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.606 } ], "duel_analysis": "Samuel Moutoussamy (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Jefferson Lerma in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ngal'ayel Mukau", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 14200000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.57, "defenders": [ "Jefferson Lerma" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.468, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.532, "xg_contribution": 0.1416, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jefferson Lerma", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.468 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ngal'ayel Mukau (CM) is slightly favored against Jefferson Lerma in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. Projected xG contribution: 0.142 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.666, "away_midfield_power": 0.481, "home_creative_power": 0.656, "away_creative_power": 0.371, "home_defensive_power": 0.398, "away_defensive_power": 0.466, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.581, "home_midfield_count": 6, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Luis Díaz", "James Rodríguez", "Jhon Arias", "Gustavo Puerta", "Jefferson Lerma", "Daniel Muñoz" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Ngal'ayel Mukau", "Samuel Moutoussamy", "Edo Kayembe" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.4, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.7, "home_throughball_threat": 2.6, "away_throughball_threat": 1.7, "key_personal_duel": "Luis Díaz vs Ngal'ayel Mukau", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.03, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.98 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-3-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.68, "away_lambda": 1.05, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "CAM vs CM", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "James Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Chancel Mbemba", "Steve Kapuadi", "Samuel Moutoussamy" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jhon Arias": { "opponents": [ "Arthur Masuaku", "Steve Kapuadi", "Edo Kayembe" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Luis Díaz": { "opponents": [ "Ngal'ayel Mukau", "Samuel Moutoussamy" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Luis Javier Suárez": { "opponents": [ "Steve Kapuadi", "Axel Tuanzebe" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jefferson Lerma": { "opponents": [ "Samuel Moutoussamy", "Ngal'ayel Mukau" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Johan Mojica": { "opponents": [ "Yoane Wissa" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jhon Lucumí": { "opponents": [ "Yoane Wissa" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gustavo Puerta": { "opponents": [ "Arthur Masuaku", "Ngal'ayel Mukau" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Davinson Sánchez": { "opponents": [ "Chancel Mbemba" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Daniel Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Edo Kayembe" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Camilo Vargas": { "opponents": [ "Cédric Bakambu", "Yoane Wissa" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Chancel Mbemba": { "opponents": [ "James Rodríguez", "Davinson Sánchez" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Steve Kapuadi": { "opponents": [ "James Rodríguez", "Jhon Arias", "Luis Javier Suárez" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Arthur Masuaku": { "opponents": [ "Jhon Arias", "Gustavo Puerta" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Ngal'ayel Mukau": { "opponents": [ "Luis Díaz", "Jefferson Lerma", "Gustavo Puerta" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Axel Tuanzebe": { "opponents": [ "Luis Javier Suárez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Samuel Moutoussamy": { "opponents": [ "Jefferson Lerma", "Luis Díaz", "James Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yoane Wissa": { "opponents": [ "Johan Mojica", "Jhon Lucumí" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Edo Kayembe": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Muñoz", "Jhon Arias" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Lionel Mpasi Nzau": { "opponents": [ "Luis Javier Suárez", "Daniel Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Aaron Wan-Bissaka": { "opponents": [ "Luis Javier Suárez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Cédric Bakambu": { "opponents": [ "Jhon Lucumí", "Davinson Sánchez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~51% possession expected (Luis Díaz vs Ngal'ayel Mukau). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.89, Away: 0.48. Home danger zone: CAM vs CM. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0241, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0236, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0707, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.081, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9932, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9805, "home_midfield_factor": 1.03, "away_midfield_factor": 0.98, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5913, "away_avg_quality": 0.4822, "avg_quality_gap": 0.109, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.9785, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.9177, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.1419, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1729, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3803, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.242, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1141, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0667, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.68, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.717, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.6801, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7167, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.68, "final_away_lambda": 1.05 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-23T13:36:02Z" }