{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Morocco", "away_team": "Haiti", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260624", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-0", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1401, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1401 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1377 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0951 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0922 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0906 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0677, "0-1": 0.0445, "0-2": 0.0147, "0-3": 0.0032, "0-4": 0.0005, "1-0": 0.1377, "1-1": 0.0906, "1-2": 0.0298, "1-3": 0.0065, "1-4": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.1401, "2-1": 0.0922, "2-2": 0.0303, "2-3": 0.0067, "2-4": 0.0011, "3-0": 0.0951, "3-1": 0.0626, "3-2": 0.0206, "3-3": 0.0045, "3-4": 0.0007, "4-0": 0.0484, "4-1": 0.0318, "4-2": 0.0105, "4-3": 0.0023, "5-0": 0.0197, "5-1": 0.013, "5-2": 0.0043, "5-3": 0.0009, "6-0": 0.0067, "6-1": 0.0044, "6-2": 0.0014, "7-0": 0.0019, "7-1": 0.0013 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.697, "draw": 0.1936, "away_win": 0.1094 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5046, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4954, "btts_yes": 0.4191, "btts_no": 0.5809, "home_clean_sheet": 0.5179, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1307 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 88.61, "MCR": 84.4, "ATR": 90.59, "GK": 91.67 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 73.38, "MCR": 78.54, "ATR": 76.12, "GK": 75.63 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Morocco vs Haiti. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Brahim Díaz, Ismael Saibari", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Ayyoub Bouaddi vs Jean-Ricner Bellegarde). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 0.87. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.81, "home_lambda": 2.035, "away_lambda": 0.658 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.697, "draw": 0.1936, "away_win": 0.1094 }, "favorite": "Morocco", "favorite_win_probability": 0.697, "fair_spread": 1.377, "fair_total": 2.693, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Morocco", "estimate": 2.035, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Haiti", "estimate": 0.658, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5046, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4191, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Morocco", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5179, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Haiti", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1307, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ismael Saibari (Morocco)", "estimate": 0.5792, "probability": 0.3591, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Frantzdy Pierrot (Haiti)", "estimate": 0.1763, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Brahim Díaz (Morocco)", "estimate": 0.244, "probability": 0.2995, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde (Haiti)", "estimate": 0.1213, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.693, "expected_total_shots": 22, "expected_total_passes": 780, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.4, "possession_home_pct": 53.3, "possession_away_pct": 46.7, "notes": "Morocco projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Morocco", "favorite_win_probability": 0.697, "script": "Morocco is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.38 goals and fair total 2.69.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 11 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Haiti must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Morocco lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Morocco chance creation leans on Ismael Saibari against Carlens Arcus in Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle; Morocco projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Morocco: starters carry the main goal usage through Brahim Díaz, Ismael Saibari; bench watchlist: Chemsdine Talbi, Neil El Aynaoui, Chadi Riad.", "Haiti: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Lenny Joseph, Derrick Etienne, Martin Expérience.", "Assist usage should flow through Brahim Díaz; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Morocco tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 11 total first-half shots, and 1.35 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Haiti is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Morocco.", "Haiti wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Morocco": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Bono": { "player_id": 360938, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 37, "height": 195, "market_value": 3400000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.3192, "rating": 91.6694, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 21, "total_long_balls": 11, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 35, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.9654, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 7.3704, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "expected_saves": 1.83, "high_pressure_saves": 0.7, "shots_faced": 3.9, "opponent_faced": "Frantzdy Pierrot, Wilson Isidor", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186859, "match_date": "2026-06-19", "home_team": "Scotland", "away_team": "Morocco", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Morocco", "opponent": "Scotland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186850, "match_date": "2026-06-13", "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Morocco", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Morocco", "opponent": "Brazil", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.376 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14773800, "match_date": "2026-05-21", "home_team": "Al-Fayha", "away_team": "Al-Hilal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Al-Hilal", "opponent": "Al-Fayha", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 21, "ball_recovery": 6, "goals_prevented": -0.9214 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Saudi Pro League", "league_id": "955", "league_slug": "saudi-pro-league", "league_country": "Saudi Arabia", "season_id": "80443", "season_name": "Saudi Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14773794, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "Al-Hilal", "away_team": "Neom SC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Al-Hilal", "opponent": "Neom SC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 30, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0833 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Saudi Pro League", "league_id": "955", "league_slug": "saudi-pro-league", "league_country": "Saudi Arabia", "season_id": "80443", "season_name": "Saudi Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14771891, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Al-Nassr", "away_team": "Al-Hilal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Al-Hilal", "opponent": "Al-Nassr", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 27, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.098 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Saudi Pro League", "league_id": "955", "league_slug": "saudi-pro-league", "league_country": "Saudi Arabia", "season_id": "80443", "season_name": "Saudi Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 16017798, "match_date": "2026-05-05", "home_team": "Al-Khaleej", "away_team": "Al-Hilal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Al-Hilal", "opponent": "Al-Khaleej", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 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"Agustin Sant Anna", "ranking": 716 }, { "player_name": "Niko Janković", "ranking": 717 }, { "player_name": "Gustavo Neves", "ranking": 718 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Fidel Ambríz", "ranking": 720 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Sarabia", "ranking": 721 }, { "player_name": "David De Gea", "ranking": 722 }, { "player_name": "Viery", "ranking": 723 }, { "player_name": "Henry Mosquera", "ranking": 724 } ] } } }, "Achraf Hakimi": { "player_id": 814594, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 181, "market_value": 82000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 5, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 96.2609, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 64, "accurate_pass": 59, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 31, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 34, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 91, 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"is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1417, "expected_assists": 0.1218, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 79, "accurate_pass": 72, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631367, "match_date": "2026-03-17", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0514, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 54, 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"is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ferencváros TC", "opponent": "Sporting Braga", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0277, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631830, "match_date": "2026-03-12", "home_team": "Ferencváros TC", "away_team": "Sporting Braga", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ferencváros TC", "opponent": "Sporting Braga", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.6717, "expected_assists": 0.2493, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 19957, "combined_rank_score": 4029.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 7801.0, "fifa_overall": 68.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.4753, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lenny Joseph", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Max Johnston", "ranking": 19952 }, { "player_name": "Patryk Klimala", "ranking": 19953 }, { "player_name": "Kassoum Ouattara", "ranking": 19954 }, { "player_name": "Eric Ramírez", "ranking": 19955 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Mathisen", "ranking": 19956 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Afimico Pululu", "ranking": 19958 }, { "player_name": "Tyrese Campbell", "ranking": 19959 }, { "player_name": "Alex Cochrane", "ranking": 19960 }, { "player_name": "José Sagredo", "ranking": 19961 }, { "player_name": "Adam Dźwigała", "ranking": 19962 } ] } } }, "Derrick Etienne": { "player_id": 828012, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 178, "market_value": 770000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 72.2756, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 1.6545, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 66.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186856, "match_date": "2026-06-20", "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Haiti", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Haiti", "opponent": "Brazil", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15171574, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Chicago Fire", "away_team": "Toronto FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Toronto FC", "opponent": "Chicago Fire", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1239, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "MLS", "league_id": "242", "league_slug": "mls", "league_country": "USA", "season_id": "86668", "season_name": "MLS 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15171553, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "Charlotte FC", "away_team": "Toronto FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Toronto FC", "opponent": "Charlotte FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0857, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "MLS", "league_id": "242", "league_slug": "mls", "league_country": "USA", "season_id": "86668", "season_name": "MLS 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 20941, "combined_rank_score": 4913.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 9524.0, "fifa_overall": 66.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.2756, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Derrick Etienne", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ryan Thomas", "ranking": 20936 }, { "player_name": "Unai Hernández", "ranking": 20937 }, { "player_name": "Matías Palacios", "ranking": 20938 }, { "player_name": "Augusto Schott", "ranking": 20939 }, { "player_name": "Darragh Lenihan", "ranking": 20940 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rochinha", "ranking": 20942 }, { "player_name": "Benedikt Gimber", "ranking": 20943 }, { "player_name": "Sander Erik Kartum", "ranking": 20944 }, { "player_name": "Ali Hazazi", "ranking": 20945 }, { "player_name": "Loureiro", "ranking": 20946 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.66, "expected_assists": 0.41, "total_shots": 7, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 355, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 75.74, "possession_estimated_pct": 46.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ismael Saibari", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 35000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.752, "defenders": [ "Carlens Arcus" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.424, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.648, "xg_contribution": 0.4343, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlens Arcus", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.352 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ismael Saibari (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Carlens Arcus in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 65%. The quality gap is significant (€35M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.434 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Hannes Delcroix" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.426, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.586, "xg_contribution": 0.0552, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hannes Delcroix", "role": "LB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.414 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli (RW) is slightly favored against Hannes Delcroix in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 59%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.055 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Brahim Díaz", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Danley Jean Jacques" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.44, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.566, "xg_contribution": 0.2353, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Danley Jean Jacques", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.434 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brahim Díaz (CAM) is slightly favored against Danley Jean Jacques in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €3M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.235 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ayoube Amaimouni Echghouyab", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.494, "defenders": [ "Jean-Kévin Duverne", "Wilguens Paugain" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.418, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.218, "xg_contribution": 0.0587, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jean-Kévin Duverne", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.782 }, { "player": "Wilguens Paugain", "role": "CB", "market_value": 620000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.782 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ayoube Amaimouni Echghouyab (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jean-Kévin Duverne and Wilguens Paugain in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.607, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.564, "xg_contribution": 0.0097, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde", "role": "CM", "market_value": 17600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.436 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ayyoub Bouaddi (CDM) is slightly favored against Jean-Ricner Bellegarde in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €18M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.010 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Wilson Isidor", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 18500000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.616, "defenders": [ "Zakaria El Ouahdi" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.593, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.538, "xg_contribution": 0.2791, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Zakaria El Ouahdi", "role": "RB", "market_value": 16300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.462 } ], "duel_analysis": "Wilson Isidor (LW) is slightly favored against Zakaria El Ouahdi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. Projected xG contribution: 0.279 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Louicius Don Deedson", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 1300000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.416, "defenders": [ "Achraf Hakimi" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.884, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.258, "xg_contribution": 0.1147, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Achraf Hakimi", "role": "LB", "market_value": 82000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.742 } ], "duel_analysis": "Louicius Don Deedson (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Achraf Hakimi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €82M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.115 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Frantzdy Pierrot", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2400000, "attacker_height": 194, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.43, "defenders": [ "Noussair Mazraoui", "Nayef Aguerd" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.607, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3451, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noussair Mazraoui", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Nayef Aguerd", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Frantzdy Pierrot (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Noussair Mazraoui and Nayef Aguerd in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €18M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.345 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Danley Jean Jacques", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Ayyoub Bouaddi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.221, "xg_contribution": 0.0442, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.779 } ], "duel_analysis": "Danley Jean Jacques (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ayyoub Bouaddi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 22%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 17600000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.607, "defenders": [ "Ayyoub Bouaddi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.286, "xg_contribution": 0.0892, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.714 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ayyoub Bouaddi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€18M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.089 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.811, "away_midfield_power": 0.496, "home_creative_power": 0.737, "away_creative_power": 0.536, "home_defensive_power": 0.648, "away_defensive_power": 0.44, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.621, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "Brahim Díaz", "Ismael Saibari", "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "Bilal El Khannouss" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde", "Danley Jean Jacques", "Josué Casimir" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 53.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 46.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.7, "home_throughball_threat": 2.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.2, "key_personal_duel": "Ayyoub Bouaddi vs Jean-Ricner Bellegarde", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.044, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.967 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.035, "away_lambda": 0.658, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Ismael Saibari": { "opponents": [ "Carlens Arcus", "Danley Jean Jacques" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli": { "opponents": [ "Hannes Delcroix", "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Brahim Díaz": { "opponents": [ "Danley Jean Jacques" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ayoube Amaimouni Echghouyab": { "opponents": [ "Jean-Kévin Duverne", "Wilguens Paugain" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ayyoub Bouaddi": { "opponents": [ "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde", "Danley Jean Jacques" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Zakaria El Ouahdi": { "opponents": [ "Wilson Isidor" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Achraf Hakimi": { "opponents": [ "Louicius Don Deedson" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Noussair Mazraoui": { "opponents": [ "Frantzdy Pierrot" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nayef Aguerd": { "opponents": [ "Frantzdy Pierrot" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Bilal El Khannouss": { "opponents": [ "Josué Casimir" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Bono": { "opponents": [ "Wilson Isidor", "Louicius Don Deedson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Carlens Arcus": { "opponents": [ "Ismael Saibari" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Hannes Delcroix": { "opponents": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Danley Jean Jacques": { "opponents": [ "Brahim Díaz", "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "Ismael Saibari" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jean-Kévin Duverne": { "opponents": [ "Ayoube Amaimouni Echghouyab" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Wilguens Paugain": { "opponents": [ "Ayoube Amaimouni Echghouyab" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde": { "opponents": [ "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Wilson Isidor": { "opponents": [ "Zakaria El Ouahdi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Louicius Don Deedson": { "opponents": [ "Achraf Hakimi" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Frantzdy Pierrot": { "opponents": [ "Noussair Mazraoui", "Nayef Aguerd" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Josué Casimir": { "opponents": [ "Bilal El Khannouss" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Johny Placide": { "opponents": [ "Ayoube Amaimouni Echghouyab", "Brahim Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Ayyoub Bouaddi vs Jean-Ricner Bellegarde). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 0.87. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0252, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0086, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0781, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.066, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0168, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9213, "home_midfield_factor": 1.044, "away_midfield_factor": 0.967, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6987, "away_avg_quality": 0.4634, "avg_quality_gap": 0.2353, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.6831, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.5159, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.297, "elite_count_gap": 2, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3153, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.6936, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.4414, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0314, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.022, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.3153, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0838, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9785, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.878, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.672, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.8784, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.672, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 2.035, "final_away_lambda": 0.658 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-22T13:36:12Z" }