{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Czechia", "away_team": "Mexico", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260624", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-3-3" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1299, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1299 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1054 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.085 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0819 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.085, "0-1": 0.1, "0-2": 0.0611, "0-3": 0.0246, "0-4": 0.0074, "0-5": 0.0018, "1-0": 0.1054, "1-1": 0.1299, "1-2": 0.0777, "1-3": 0.0312, "1-4": 0.0094, "1-5": 0.0023, "2-0": 0.0678, "2-1": 0.0819, "2-2": 0.0494, "2-3": 0.0199, "2-4": 0.006, "2-5": 0.0014, "3-0": 0.0288, "3-1": 0.0347, "3-2": 0.0209, "3-3": 0.0084, "3-4": 0.0025, "3-5": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0091, "4-1": 0.011, "4-2": 0.0067, "4-3": 0.0027, "4-4": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0023, "5-1": 0.0028, "5-2": 0.0017, "5-3": 0.0007, "6-1": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3787, "draw": 0.2736, "away_win": 0.3476 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4508, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5492, "btts_yes": 0.5057, "btts_no": 0.4943, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2991, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2803 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 81.25, "MCR": 84.68, "ATR": 87.51, "GK": 81.91 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 85.05, "MCR": 83.07, "ATR": 83.82, "GK": 88.67 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Czechia vs Mexico. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Patrik Schick, Raúl Jiménez", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Michal Sadílek vs Gilberto Mora will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.93, Away: 0.77. Home danger zone: RWB vs LW + LB. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank." }, "confidence": 0.73, "home_lambda": 1.272, "away_lambda": 1.207 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3787, "draw": 0.2736, "away_win": 0.3476 }, "favorite": "Czechia", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3787, "fair_spread": 0.065, "fair_total": 2.479, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Czechia", "estimate": 1.272, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Mexico", "estimate": 1.207, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4508, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5057, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Czechia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2991, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Mexico", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2803, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Tomáš Holeš (Czechia)", "estimate": 0.4584, "probability": 0.0665, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Raúl Jiménez (Mexico)", "estimate": 0.4545, "probability": 0.3911, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Vladimír Coufal (Czechia)", "estimate": 0.2215, "probability": 0.1922, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Gilberto Mora (Mexico)", "estimate": 0.1299, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.479, "expected_total_shots": 19, "expected_total_passes": 632, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.9, "possession_home_pct": 48.8, "possession_away_pct": 51.2, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Czechia", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3787, "script": "Czechia is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.07 goals and fair total 2.48.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Mexico must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Czechia lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Mexico chance creation leans on Raúl Jiménez against Tomáš Holeš in Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Czechia: starters carry the main goal usage through Patrik Schick; bench watchlist: Pavel Šulc, Lukáš Horníček, Tomáš Souček.", "Mexico: starters carry the main goal usage through Raúl Jiménez; bench watchlist: Santiago Giménez, Armando González, Edson Álvarez.", "Assist usage should flow through Alexandr Sojka; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Czechia tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.24 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Mexico is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Czechia.", "Mexico wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Czechia": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Patrik Schick": { "player_id": 280609, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 191, "market_value": 16600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1045, "goal_rate": 0.0269, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 91.4538, "minutes": 77, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 6.6879, "dispossessed": 1.4405, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 1.2553, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.24, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Johan Vásquez, César Montes", "opponent_faced": "Johan Vásquez, César Montes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2048, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0241, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186731, "match_date": "2026-06-18", "home_team": "Czechia", "away_team": "South Africa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Czechia", "opponent": "South Africa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2, "expected_assists": 0.008, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 20, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186720, "match_date": "2026-06-12", "home_team": "South Korea", "away_team": "Czechia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Czechia", "opponent": "South Korea", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14065557, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen", "away_team": "Hamburger SV", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen", "opponent": "Hamburger SV", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0815, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065248, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "VfB Stuttgart", "away_team": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen", "opponent": "VfB Stuttgart", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1304, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065236, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen", "away_team": "RB Leipzig", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen", "opponent": "RB Leipzig", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 9.2, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 2.8387, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "total_shots": 9, "shots_on_target": 5, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 18, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631372, "match_date": "2026-03-17", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233684, "match_date": "2025-11-17", "home_team": "Czechia", "away_team": "Gibraltar", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Czechia", "opponent": "Gibraltar", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. 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"aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186720, "match_date": "2026-06-12", "home_team": "South Korea", "away_team": "Czechia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Czechia", "opponent": "South Korea", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1756, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14065559, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "Borussia M'gladbach", "away_team": "TSG Hoffenheim", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "TSG Hoffenheim", "opponent": "Borussia M'gladbach", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3662, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065252, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "TSG Hoffenheim", "away_team": "SV Werder Bremen", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "TSG Hoffenheim", "opponent": "SV Werder Bremen", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", 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"attacker_skill_quality": 0.596, "defenders": [ "Johan Vásquez", "César Montes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.517, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.24, "xg_contribution": 0.1521, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Johan Vásquez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 11300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.76 }, { "player": "César Montes", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.76 } ], "duel_analysis": "Patrik Schick (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Johan Vásquez and César Montes in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. Projected xG contribution: 0.152 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Vladimír Darida", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 345000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.404, "defenders": [ "César Huerta", "Israel Reyes" ], "defender_roles": [ "RW", "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.195, "xg_contribution": 0.0882, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "César Huerta", "role": "RW", "market_value": 3700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.805 }, { "player": "Israel Reyes", "role": "RB", "market_value": 6700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.805 } ], "duel_analysis": "Vladimír Darida (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against César Huerta and Israel Reyes in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Projected xG contribution: 0.088 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Tomáš Holeš", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 1000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.412, "defenders": [ "Raúl Jiménez", "Mateo Chávez" ], "defender_roles": [ "LW", "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.445, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.213, "xg_contribution": 0.4626, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Raúl Jiménez", "role": "LW", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787 }, { "player": "Mateo Chávez", "role": "LB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tomáš Holeš (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Raúl Jiménez and Mateo Chávez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Projected xG contribution: 0.463 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Michal Sadílek", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 8500000, "attacker_height": 168, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.505, "defenders": [ "Gilberto Mora" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.534, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.415, "xg_contribution": 0.1949, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gilberto Mora", "role": "CM", "market_value": 11000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.585 } ], "duel_analysis": "Michal Sadílek (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Gilberto Mora in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.195 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Lukáš Červ", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 5500000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.468, "defenders": [ "Álvaro Fidalgo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.481, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "xg_contribution": 0.0351, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Álvaro Fidalgo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.554 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lukáš Červ (CDM) is evenly matched against Álvaro Fidalgo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Raúl Jiménez", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 189, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Tomáš Holeš" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.412, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.488, "xg_contribution": 0.502, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tomáš Holeš", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.512 } ], "duel_analysis": "Raúl Jiménez (LW) is evenly matched against Tomáš Holeš in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.502 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "César Huerta", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 3700000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.446, "defenders": [ "Vladimír Darida" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.404, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.467, "xg_contribution": 0.2068, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vladimír Darida", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 345000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.533 } ], "duel_analysis": "César Huerta (RW) is evenly matched against Vladimír Darida in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.207 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Obed Vargas", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 9300000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.514, "defenders": [ "Vladimír Coufal", "Ladislav Krejčí", "Robin Hranáč" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.535, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "numerical_situation": "1v3", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0106, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vladimír Coufal", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2400000, "tackles_attempted": 0.6, "tackles_won": 0.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ladislav Krejčí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 0.7, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Robin Hranáč", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10900000, "tackles_attempted": 0.7, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Obed Vargas (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Vladimír Coufal and Ladislav Krejčí and Robin Hranáč in a 3-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.011 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Gilberto Mora", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 11000000, "attacker_height": 166, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.534, "defenders": [ "Michal Sadílek" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.505, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "xg_contribution": 0.0473, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Michal Sadílek", "role": "CM", "market_value": 8500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.575 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gilberto Mora (CM) is evenly matched against Michal Sadílek in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.476, "away_midfield_power": 0.541, "home_creative_power": 0.416, "away_creative_power": 0.477, "home_defensive_power": 0.39, "away_defensive_power": 0.48, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.468, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Lukáš Červ", "Vladimír Darida", "Michal Sadílek", "Alexandr Sojka" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Gilberto Mora", "Obed Vargas", "Álvaro Fidalgo", "César Huerta", "Orbelín Pineda" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.4, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Michal Sadílek vs Gilberto Mora", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.988, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.014 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.08, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.272, "away_lambda": 1.207, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "RWB vs LW + LB", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Patrik Schick": { "opponents": [ "Johan Vásquez", "César Montes" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Vladimír Darida": { "opponents": [ "César Huerta", "Israel Reyes" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tomáš Holeš": { "opponents": [ "Raúl Jiménez", "Mateo Chávez" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Michal Sadílek": { "opponents": [ "Gilberto Mora" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lukáš Červ": { "opponents": [ "Álvaro Fidalgo", "Obed Vargas" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Vladimír Coufal": { "opponents": [ "Obed Vargas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ladislav Krejčí": { "opponents": [ "Obed Vargas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Robin Hranáč": { "opponents": [ "Obed Vargas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alexandr Sojka": { "opponents": [ "Orbelín Pineda" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Matěj Kovář": { "opponents": [ "Raúl Jiménez", "Gilberto Mora" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Adam Hložek": { "opponents": [ "Johan Vásquez", "César Montes" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Johan Vásquez": { "opponents": [ "Patrik Schick" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "César Montes": { "opponents": [ "Patrik Schick" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "César Huerta": { "opponents": [ "Vladimír Darida" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Israel Reyes": { "opponents": [ "Vladimír Darida" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Raúl Jiménez": { "opponents": [ "Tomáš Holeš" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Mateo Chávez": { "opponents": [ "Tomáš Holeš" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gilberto Mora": { "opponents": [ "Michal Sadílek" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Álvaro Fidalgo": { "opponents": [ "Lukáš Červ" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Obed Vargas": { "opponents": [ "Vladimír Coufal", "Ladislav Krejčí", "Robin Hranáč", "Lukáš Červ" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Orbelín Pineda": { "opponents": [ "Alexandr Sojka" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Guillermo Ochoa": { "opponents": [ "Adam Hložek", "Patrik Schick" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Michal Sadílek vs Gilberto Mora will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.93, Away: 0.77. Home danger zone: RWB vs LW + LB. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0248, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9841, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.159, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.127, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9927, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9786, "home_midfield_factor": 0.988, "away_midfield_factor": 1.014, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4943, "away_avg_quality": 0.4861, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0082, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.105, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.3206, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.0666, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0193, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1147, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0584, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.272, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.207, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.2717, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.2074, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.272, "final_away_lambda": 1.207 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-24T13:35:35Z" }