{ "match_info": { "home_team": "BiH", "away_team": "Qatar", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260624", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-3-3" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1352, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1352 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1303 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1164 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1164 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0765 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1164, "0-1": 0.1164, "0-2": 0.0599, "0-3": 0.0204, "0-4": 0.0052, "0-5": 0.0011, "1-0": 0.1303, "1-1": 0.1352, "1-2": 0.0684, "1-3": 0.0233, "1-4": 0.0059, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.075, "2-1": 0.0765, "2-2": 0.039, "2-3": 0.0133, "2-4": 0.0034, "2-5": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.0285, "3-1": 0.0291, "3-2": 0.0148, "3-3": 0.005, "3-4": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.0081, "4-1": 0.0083, "4-2": 0.0042, "4-3": 0.0014, "5-0": 0.0019, "5-1": 0.0019, "5-2": 0.001 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3826, "draw": 0.296, "away_win": 0.3213 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3668, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6332, "btts_yes": 0.4363, "btts_no": 0.5637, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3195 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 81.9, "MCR": 75.83, "ATR": 87.11, "GK": 82.96 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 86.95, "MCR": 88.96, "ATR": 86.68, "GK": 86.69 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for BiH vs Qatar. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Kerim Alajbegović, Edmilson Junior", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Kerim Alajbegović vs Akram Afif will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.25, Away: 0.38. Home danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.141, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3826, "draw": 0.296, "away_win": 0.3213 }, "favorite": "BiH", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3826, "fair_spread": 0.121, "fair_total": 2.161, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "BiH", "estimate": 1.141, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Qatar", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3668, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4363, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "BiH", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Qatar", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3195, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kerim Alajbegović (BiH)", "estimate": 0.2777, "probability": 0.3579, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Edmilson Junior (Qatar)", "estimate": 0.3811, "probability": 0.3098, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Sead Kolašinac (BiH)", "estimate": 0.215, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Almoez Ali (Qatar)", "estimate": 0.0981, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "low", "expected_total_goals": 2.161, "expected_total_shots": 19, "expected_total_passes": 552, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.4, "possession_home_pct": 50.9, "possession_away_pct": 49.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "BiH", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3826, "script": "BiH is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.12 goals and fair total 2.16.", "first_half": "Expect low tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Qatar must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A BiH lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Qatar chance creation leans on Yusuf Abdurisag against Amar Dedić in Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "BiH: starters carry the main goal usage through Kerim Alajbegović; bench watchlist: Tarik Muharemović, Esmir Bajraktarević, Ermin Mahmić.", "Qatar: starters carry the main goal usage through Edmilson Junior; bench watchlist: Meshaal Barsham, Ahmed Al-Ganehi, Mohamed Naceur Almanai.", "Assist usage should flow through the projected key-pass leaders; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: BiH tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects low tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.08 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Qatar is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for BiH.", "Qatar wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "BiH": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Edin Džeko": { "player_id": 14990, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 193, "market_value": 905000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1667, "goal_rate": 0.0003, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1226, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 87.5867, "minutes": 67, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 16, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 37, "possession_lost": 12.756, "dispossessed": 0.9812, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.244, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ayoub Al Oui, Pedro Miguel", "opponent_faced": "Ayoub Al Oui, Pedro Miguel", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1105, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186806, "match_date": "2026-06-18", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "opponent": "Switzerland", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1154, "expected_assists": 0.149, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13233693, "match_date": "2025-11-18", "home_team": "Austria", "away_team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "opponent": "Austria", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2729, "combined_rank_score": 329.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 88.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.4778, "sofascore_appearances": 9.0, "fifa_rank": 571.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.5867, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Edin Džeko", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Hamed Hemdan", "ranking": 2724 }, { "player_name": "Hörður Magnússon", "ranking": 2725 }, { "player_name": "Ivan Yordanov", "ranking": 2726 }, { "player_name": "Shaune Mogaila", "ranking": 2727 }, { "player_name": "Al-Hareth Hatam", "ranking": 2728 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Arda Güler", "ranking": 2730 }, { "player_name": "Goto Masaaki", "ranking": 2731 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Schoofs", "ranking": 2732 }, { "player_name": "Domagoj Bukvić", "ranking": 2733 }, { "player_name": "Alfred Gøthler", "ranking": 2734 } ] } } }, "Ermedin Demirović": { "player_id": 878081, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 184, "market_value": 20000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1015, "goal_rate": 0.0004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 86.643, "minutes": 86, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 6, "aerial_won": 4, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 6.5373, "dispossessed": 1.7357, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 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"match_id": 14065560, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "Eintracht Frankfurt", "away_team": "VfB Stuttgart", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "VfB Stuttgart", "opponent": "Eintracht Frankfurt", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2093, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065248, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "VfB Stuttgart", "away_team": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "VfB Stuttgart", "opponent": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, 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true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631840, "match_date": "2026-03-19", "home_team": "FC Porto", "away_team": "VfB Stuttgart", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "VfB Stuttgart", "opponent": "FC Porto", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0464, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631832, "match_date": "2026-03-12", "home_team": "VfB Stuttgart", "away_team": "FC Porto", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, 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"data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ermedin Demirović", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Franck Yannick Kessié", "ranking": 14261 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Cunha", "ranking": 14262 }, { "player_name": "Viktor Tsygankov", "ranking": 14263 }, { "player_name": "Mahdi Camara", "ranking": 14264 }, { "player_name": "Eric García", "ranking": 14265 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Hwang Seok-ki", "ranking": 14267 }, { "player_name": "Ollabergan Karimov", "ranking": 14268 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Fidalgo", "ranking": 14269 }, { "player_name": "Benjamín Chandía", "ranking": 14270 }, { "player_name": "Fábio", "ranking": 14271 } ] } } }, "Kerim Alajbegović": { "player_id": 1425366, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 185, "market_value": 20000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0823, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2777, "rating": 67.509, "minutes": 61, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 12.8875, "dispossessed": 1.559, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 1.0393, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.4365, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 131, "progressive_carries": 7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.571, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", 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"ranking": 3477 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sebastian Boháč", "ranking": 3479 }, { "player_name": "Takahiro Sekine", "ranking": 3480 }, { "player_name": "Oleksii Husiev", "ranking": 3481 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Longo", "ranking": 3482 }, { "player_name": "Ahmed Khalil", "ranking": 3483 } ] } } }, "Hassan Al Haydos": { "player_id": 93953, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 174, "market_value": 330000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 86.4549, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 0.8962, "dispossessed": 0.9812, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186526, "match_date": "2026-06-13", "home_team": "Qatar", "away_team": "Switzerland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Qatar", "opponent": "Switzerland", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15603918, "match_date": "2026-04-08", "home_team": "Al-Sailiya", "away_team": "Al-Sadd", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Al-Sadd", "opponent": "Al-Sailiya", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Stars League", "league_id": "825", "league_slug": "stars-league", "league_country": "Qatar", "season_id": "77227", "season_name": "Stars League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15603910, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Al-Rayyan", "away_team": "Al-Sadd", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Al-Sadd", "opponent": "Al-Rayyan", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Stars League", "league_id": "825", "league_slug": "stars-league", "league_country": "Qatar", "season_id": "77227", "season_name": "Stars League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15690007, "match_date": "2026-03-13", "home_team": "Al-Sadd", "away_team": "Umm-Salal SC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Al-Sadd", "opponent": "Umm-Salal SC", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Stars League", "league_id": "825", "league_slug": "stars-league", "league_country": "Qatar", "season_id": "77227", "season_name": "Stars League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4708, "combined_rank_score": 554.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 719.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.4549, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Hassan Al Haydos", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Boyd Reith", "ranking": 4703 }, { "player_name": "Andres Correa", "ranking": 4704 }, { "player_name": "Gianfranco Trasante", "ranking": 4705 }, { "player_name": "Omar El Wahsh", "ranking": 4706 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Marcel", "ranking": 4707 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Déo Bassinga", "ranking": 4709 }, { "player_name": "Ludwig Vraa-Jensen", "ranking": 4710 }, { "player_name": "Jean Carlos Estacio", "ranking": 4711 }, { "player_name": "Luis Vega", "ranking": 4712 }, { "player_name": "Oleksandr Pyatov", "ranking": 4713 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.2, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 259, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 10, "avg_rating": 87.82, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Edin Džeko", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 905000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.411, "defenders": [ "Ayoub Al Oui", "Pedro Miguel" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.403, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.244, "xg_contribution": 0.0667, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ayoub Al Oui", "role": "CB", "market_value": 360000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.756 }, { "player": "Pedro Miguel", "role": "CB", "market_value": 160000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.756 } ], "duel_analysis": "Edin Džeko (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ayoub Al Oui and Pedro Miguel in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. Projected xG contribution: 0.067 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Kerim Alajbegović", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 20000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.631, "defenders": [ "Boualem Khoukhi" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.402, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.571, "xg_contribution": 0.1355, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Boualem Khoukhi", "role": "RB", "market_value": 190000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.429 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kerim Alajbegović (LM) is slightly favored against Boualem Khoukhi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€20M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.135 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Amar Memić", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 4400000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.455, "defenders": [ "Sultan Al-Brake" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.404, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.487, "xg_contribution": 0.0398, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sultan Al-Brake", "role": "LB", "market_value": 325000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.513 } ], "duel_analysis": "Amar Memić (RM) is evenly matched against Sultan Al-Brake in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.040 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Benjamin Tahirović", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 4400000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.455, "defenders": [ "Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam", "Akram Afif" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.449, "duel_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.346, "xg_contribution": 0.0101, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 475000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.654 }, { "player": "Akram Afif", "role": "CM", "market_value": 7500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.654 } ], "duel_analysis": "Benjamin Tahirović (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam and Akram Afif in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 35%. Projected xG contribution: 0.010 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Yusuf Abdurisag", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 290000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.404, "defenders": [ "Amar Dedić" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.379, "xg_contribution": 0.1713, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Amar Dedić", "role": "RB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.621 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yusuf Abdurisag (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Amar Dedić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €16M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.171 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Karim Boudiaf", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 160000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.402, "defenders": [ "Sead Kolašinac" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.452, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.485, "xg_contribution": 0.0292, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sead Kolašinac", "role": "LB", "market_value": 4200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.515 } ], "duel_analysis": "Karim Boudiaf (RW) is evenly matched against Sead Kolašinac in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.029 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Almoez Ali", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2400000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.43, "defenders": [ "Nikola Katić", "Dennis Hadžikadunić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.419, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0316, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nikola Katić", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Dennis Hadžikadunić", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Almoez Ali (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Nikola Katić and Dennis Hadžikadunić in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 475000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.406, "defenders": [ "Benjamin Tahirović" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.455, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.346, "xg_contribution": 0.0439, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 1, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Benjamin Tahirović", "role": "CM", "market_value": 4400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.654 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Benjamin Tahirović in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Akram Afif", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 7500000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.493, "defenders": [ "Benjamin Tahirović" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.455, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.381, "xg_contribution": 0.1043, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Benjamin Tahirović", "role": "CM", "market_value": 4400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.619 } ], "duel_analysis": "Akram Afif (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Benjamin Tahirović in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.104 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.516, "away_midfield_power": 0.481, "home_creative_power": 0.49, "away_creative_power": 0.421, "home_defensive_power": 0.423, "away_defensive_power": 0.351, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.518, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Kerim Alajbegović", "Benjamin Tahirović", "Ivan Šunjić", "Amar Memić" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Akram Afif", "Almoez Ali", "Karim Boudiaf", "Edmilson Junior", "Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.4, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "home_throughball_threat": 2.1, "away_throughball_threat": 1.9, "key_personal_duel": "Kerim Alajbegović vs Akram Afif", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.015, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.996 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.141, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Edin Džeko": { "opponents": [ "Ayoub Al Oui", "Pedro Miguel" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kerim Alajbegović": { "opponents": [ "Boualem Khoukhi", "Edmilson Junior" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Amar Memić": { "opponents": [ "Sultan Al-Brake", "Karim Boudiaf" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Benjamin Tahirović": { "opponents": [ "Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam", "Akram Afif", "Almoez Ali" ], "primary_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Amar Dedić": { "opponents": [ "Yusuf Abdurisag" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sead Kolašinac": { "opponents": [ "Karim Boudiaf" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nikola Katić": { "opponents": [ "Almoez Ali" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dennis Hadžikadunić": { "opponents": [ "Almoez Ali" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ivan Šunjić": { "opponents": [ "Akram Afif" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Nikola Vasilj": { "opponents": [ "Yusuf Abdurisag", "Edmilson Junior" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ermedin Demirović": { "opponents": [ "Ayoub Al Oui", "Sultan Al-Brake" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Ayoub Al Oui": { "opponents": [ "Edin Džeko" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pedro Miguel": { "opponents": [ "Edin Džeko" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Boualem Khoukhi": { "opponents": [ "Kerim Alajbegović" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sultan Al-Brake": { "opponents": [ "Amar Memić" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam": { "opponents": [ "Benjamin Tahirović" ], "primary_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Akram Afif": { "opponents": [ "Benjamin Tahirović", "Ivan Šunjić" ], "primary_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yusuf Abdurisag": { "opponents": [ "Amar Dedić" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Karim Boudiaf": { "opponents": [ "Sead Kolašinac", "Amar Memić" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Almoez Ali": { "opponents": [ "Nikola Katić", "Dennis Hadžikadunić", "Benjamin Tahirović" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Edmilson Junior": { "opponents": [ "Kerim Alajbegović" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Mahmud Abunada": { "opponents": [ "Ermedin Demirović", "Edin Džeko" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Kerim Alajbegović vs Akram Afif will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.25, Away: 0.38. Home danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0238, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0051, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.163, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.041, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0229, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9906, "home_midfield_factor": 1.015, "away_midfield_factor": 0.996, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4881, "away_avg_quality": 0.4171, "avg_quality_gap": 0.071, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.2664, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.1886, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.9957, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.152, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3344, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2128, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0819, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0257, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.141, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.676, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1409, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.6757, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.141, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-24T13:34:55Z" }