{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Paraguay", "away_team": "Australia", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260625", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "5-4-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1343, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1343 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1295 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.111 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.111 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0791 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.111, "0-1": 0.111, "0-2": 0.0572, "0-3": 0.0194, "0-4": 0.005, "0-5": 0.001, "1-0": 0.1295, "1-1": 0.1343, "1-2": 0.0679, "1-3": 0.0231, "1-4": 0.0059, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0776, "2-1": 0.0791, "2-2": 0.0404, "2-3": 0.0137, "2-4": 0.0035, "2-5": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.0307, "3-1": 0.0313, "3-2": 0.016, "3-3": 0.0054, "3-4": 0.0014, "4-0": 0.0091, "4-1": 0.0093, "4-2": 0.0047, "4-3": 0.0016, "5-0": 0.0022, "5-1": 0.0022, "5-2": 0.0011 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3964, "draw": 0.2915, "away_win": 0.3121 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3794, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6206, "btts_yes": 0.4456, "btts_no": 0.5544, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3048 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 88.24, "MCR": 81.07, "ATR": 89.06, "GK": 68.87 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 80.19, "MCR": 81.29, "ATR": 74.21, "GK": 72.47 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Paraguay vs Australia. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Julio Enciso, Nestory Irankunda", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Diego Gómez vs Aiden O'Neill). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.68, Away: 0.53. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel." }, "confidence": 0.71, "home_lambda": 1.188, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3964, "draw": 0.2915, "away_win": 0.3121 }, "favorite": "Paraguay", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3964, "fair_spread": 0.168, "fair_total": 2.208, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Paraguay", "estimate": 1.188, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Australia", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3794, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4456, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Paraguay", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Australia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3048, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Mauricio (Paraguay)", "estimate": 0.2249, "probability": 0.1712, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Nestory Irankunda (Australia)", "estimate": 0.3999, "probability": 0.4023, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Julio Enciso (Paraguay)", "estimate": 0.0875, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Connor Metcalfe (Australia)", "estimate": 0.0578, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.208, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 538, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.2, "possession_home_pct": 52.5, "possession_away_pct": 47.5, "notes": "Paraguay projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Paraguay", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3964, "script": "Paraguay is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.17 goals and fair total 2.21.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Australia must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Paraguay lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Australia chance creation leans on Nestory Irankunda against Junior Alonso in Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel; Paraguay projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Paraguay: starters carry the main goal usage through Julio Enciso; bench watchlist: Ramón Sosa, Miguel Almirón, Damián Bobadilla.", "Australia: starters carry the main goal usage through Nestory Irankunda; bench watchlist: Cristian Volpato, Lucas Herrington, Cameron Devlin.", "Assist usage should flow through the projected key-pass leaders; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Paraguay tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.10 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Australia is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Paraguay.", "Australia wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Paraguay": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Julio Enciso": { "player_id": 973556, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 173, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0875, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1462, "rating": 80.3937, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 18, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 8, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 15.7584, "dispossessed": 2.6264, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 1.0506, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5148, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 80, "progressive_carries": 3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Cameron Burgess", "opponent_faced": "Cameron Burgess", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.1983, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186879, "match_date": "2026-06-20", "home_team": "Türkiye", "away_team": "Paraguay", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paraguay", "opponent": "Türkiye", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.6, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0941, "expected_assists": 0.1184, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186873, "match_date": "2026-06-13", "home_team": "USA", "away_team": "Paraguay", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paraguay", "opponent": "USA", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0474, "expected_assists": 0.0885, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14061905, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "RC Strasbourg", "away_team": "AS Monaco", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "RC Strasbourg", "opponent": "AS Monaco", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.9, "assists": 3, "expected_goals": 0.1458, "expected_assists": 0.6558, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15889322, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Stade Brestois", "away_team": "RC Strasbourg", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "RC Strasbourg", "opponent": "Stade Brestois", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1642, "expected_assists": 0.7897, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14064518, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Angers", "away_team": "RC Strasbourg", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "RC Strasbourg", "opponent": "Angers", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.5687, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "total_shots": 9, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 5, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14167988, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "RC Strasbourg", "away_team": "Toulouse", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "RC Strasbourg", "opponent": "Toulouse", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13856229, "match_date": "2025-06-11", "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Paraguay", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paraguay", "opponent": "Brazil", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. 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CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13129492, "match_date": "2025-03-26", "home_team": "Colombia", "away_team": "Paraguay", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paraguay", "opponent": "Colombia", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13129490, "match_date": "2025-03-20", "home_team": "Paraguay", "away_team": "Chile", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paraguay", "opponent": "Chile", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17157, "combined_rank_score": 1775.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 79.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 3471.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.3937, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Julio Enciso", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alexis Castro", "ranking": 17152 }, { "player_name": "Alexandros Paschalakis", "ranking": 17153 }, { "player_name": "Pedrinho", "ranking": 17154 }, { "player_name": "Lawrence Ati Zigi", "ranking": 17155 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Gonzalez", "ranking": 17156 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Carlos Zambrano", "ranking": 17158 }, { "player_name": "Areso", "ranking": 17159 }, { "player_name": "Juan Pintado", "ranking": 17160 }, { "player_name": "Branco Van den Boomen", "ranking": 17161 }, { "player_name": "Oussama Targhalline", "ranking": 17162 } ] } } }, "Isidro Pitta": { "player_id": 979861, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 183, "market_value": 7700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1867, "goal_rate": 0.0009, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0276, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 89.0646, "minutes": 53, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 8.9867, "dispossessed": 2.1968, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.7189, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Cameron Burgess, Harry Souttar", "opponent_faced": "Cameron Burgess, Harry Souttar", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1532, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186879, "match_date": "2026-06-20", "home_team": "Türkiye", "away_team": "Paraguay", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paraguay", "opponent": "Türkiye", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15235584, "match_date": "2026-05-31", "home_team": "Red Bull Bragantino", "away_team": "Internacional", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Red Bull Bragantino", "opponent": "Internacional", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2657, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Brasileirão Betano", "league_id": "325", "league_slug": "brasileirao-serie-a", "league_country": "Brazil", "season_id": "87678", "season_name": "Brasileiro Serie A 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15832157, "match_date": "2026-05-28", "home_team": "Red Bull Bragantino", "away_team": "Carabobo FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Red Bull Bragantino", "opponent": "Carabobo FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.1051, "expected_assists": 0.0274, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "CONMEBOL Sudamericana", "league_id": "480", "league_slug": "conmebol-sudamericana", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "87770", "season_name": 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"Javier Guerra", "ranking": 24084 }, { "player_name": "David Herold", "ranking": 24085 }, { "player_name": "Miguel Perez", "ranking": 24086 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Noah Loosli", "ranking": 24088 }, { "player_name": "Alassane Ndao", "ranking": 24089 }, { "player_name": "Noah Botić", "ranking": 24090 }, { "player_name": "Alan Tobías Morinigo", "ranking": 24091 }, { "player_name": "Hákon Valdimarsson", "ranking": 24092 } ] } } }, "Jackson Irvine": { "player_id": 181581, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 190, "market_value": 1100000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 81.5275, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.0602, "dispossessed": 1.4718, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0431, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186878, "match_date": "2026-06-19", "home_team": "USA", "away_team": "Australia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Australia", "opponent": "USA", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186874, "match_date": "2026-06-14", "home_team": "Australia", "away_team": "Türkiye", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Australia", "opponent": "Türkiye", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14065563, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "FC St. Pauli", "away_team": "VfL Wolfsburg", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC St. Pauli", "opponent": "VfL Wolfsburg", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.237, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065250, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "RB Leipzig", "away_team": "FC St. Pauli", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC St. Pauli", "opponent": "RB Leipzig", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1105, "expected_assists": 0.3263, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065246, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "FC St. Pauli", "away_team": "1. FSV Mainz 05", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC St. Pauli", "opponent": "1. FSV Mainz 05", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1271, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 16288, "combined_rank_score": 1112.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 1966.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.5275, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jackson Irvine", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Josh Cullen", "ranking": 16283 }, { "player_name": "Tom Krauß", "ranking": 16284 }, { "player_name": "Yannick Gerhardt", "ranking": 16285 }, { "player_name": "Giannis Konstantelias", "ranking": 16286 }, { "player_name": "Felix Agu", "ranking": 16287 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Florian Neuhaus", "ranking": 16289 }, { "player_name": "Yerry Mina", "ranking": 16290 }, { "player_name": "Alexandru Maxim", "ranking": 16291 }, { "player_name": "Cédric Bakambu", "ranking": 16292 }, { "player_name": "Borja Mayoral", "ranking": 16293 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.32, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 283, "interceptions": 11, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 78.7, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Julio Enciso", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Cameron Burgess" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.419, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "xg_contribution": 0.1062, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cameron Burgess", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528 } ], "duel_analysis": "Julio Enciso (LM) is evenly matched against Cameron Burgess in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.106 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Andrés Cubas", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 4300000, "attacker_height": 165, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.454, "defenders": [ "Paul Okon-Engstler" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.414, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.378, "xg_contribution": 0.0987, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Paul Okon-Engstler", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.622 } ], "duel_analysis": "Andrés Cubas (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Paul Okon-Engstler in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.099 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Mauricio", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 15800000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.588, "defenders": [ "Paul Okon-Engstler" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.414, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.45, "xg_contribution": 0.1584, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Paul Okon-Engstler", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.55 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mauricio (CM) is evenly matched against Paul Okon-Engstler in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.158 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Diego Gómez", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Cameron Burgess" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.419, "duel_zone": "RM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.508, "xg_contribution": 0.1256, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cameron Burgess", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.492 } ], "duel_analysis": "Diego Gómez (RM) is slightly favored against Cameron Burgess in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.126 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Isidro Pitta", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7700000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.495, "defenders": [ "Cameron Burgess", "Harry Souttar" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.432, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1262, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cameron Burgess", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Harry Souttar", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Isidro Pitta (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Cameron Burgess and Harry Souttar in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.126 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Matías Galarza", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.435, "defenders": [ "Cameron Burgess", "Harry Souttar" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.432, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.064, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cameron Burgess", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Harry Souttar", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matías Galarza (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Cameron Burgess and Harry Souttar in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.064 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mohamed Touré", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Omar Alderete", "Gustavo Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.504, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.2, "xg_contribution": 0.0274, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Omar Alderete", "role": "CB", "market_value": 13800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.8 }, { "player": "Gustavo Gómez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.8 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mohamed Touré (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Omar Alderete and Gustavo Gómez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Projected xG contribution: 0.027 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Connor Metcalfe", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 1400000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.417, "defenders": [ "Juan Cáceres" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.456, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.447, "xg_contribution": 0.0618, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Juan Cáceres", "role": "RB", "market_value": 4500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.553 } ], "duel_analysis": "Connor Metcalfe (LM) is evenly matched against Juan Cáceres in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.062 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Nestory Irankunda", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 8500000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.505, "defenders": [ "Junior Alonso" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.417, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "xg_contribution": 0.3332, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Junior Alonso", "role": "LB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.541 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nestory Irankunda (RM) is evenly matched against Junior Alonso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.333 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Paul Okon-Engstler", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1100000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.414, "defenders": [ "Andrés Cubas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.454, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "xg_contribution": 0.1058, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrés Cubas", "role": "CM", "market_value": 4300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.538 } ], "duel_analysis": "Paul Okon-Engstler (CM) is evenly matched against Andrés Cubas in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.106 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.618, "away_midfield_power": 0.422, "home_creative_power": 0.619, "away_creative_power": 0.363, "home_defensive_power": 0.528, "away_defensive_power": 0.4, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.594, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Julio Enciso", "Matías Galarza", "Diego Gómez", "Andrés Cubas", "Mauricio" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Paul Okon-Engstler", "Aiden O'Neill", "Connor Metcalfe" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.2, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.7, "home_throughball_threat": 2.5, "away_throughball_threat": 1.7, "key_personal_duel": "Diego Gómez vs Aiden O'Neill", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.036, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.966 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "5-4-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.03, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.188, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Julio Enciso": { "opponents": [ "Cameron Burgess", "Connor Metcalfe" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Andrés Cubas": { "opponents": [ "Paul Okon-Engstler" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mauricio": { "opponents": [ "Paul Okon-Engstler", "Aiden O'Neill" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Diego Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Cameron Burgess", "Paul Okon-Engstler" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Isidro Pitta": { "opponents": [ "Cameron Burgess", "Harry Souttar" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Matías Galarza": { "opponents": [ "Cameron Burgess", "Harry Souttar", "Aiden O'Neill" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Omar Alderete": { "opponents": [ "Mohamed Touré" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gustavo Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Mohamed Touré" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Juan Cáceres": { "opponents": [ "Connor Metcalfe" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Junior Alonso": { "opponents": [ "Nestory Irankunda" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Orlando Gill": { "opponents": [ "Nestory Irankunda", "Mohamed Touré" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Cameron Burgess": { "opponents": [ "Julio Enciso", "Diego Gómez", "Isidro Pitta", "Matías Galarza" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Paul Okon-Engstler": { "opponents": [ "Andrés Cubas", "Mauricio", "Diego Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Harry Souttar": { "opponents": [ "Isidro Pitta", "Matías Galarza" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mohamed Touré": { "opponents": [ "Omar Alderete", "Gustavo Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Connor Metcalfe": { "opponents": [ "Juan Cáceres", "Julio Enciso" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nestory Irankunda": { "opponents": [ "Junior Alonso" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Aiden O'Neill": { "opponents": [ "Mauricio", "Matías Galarza" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Patrick Beach": { "opponents": [ "Isidro Pitta", "Andrés Cubas" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jordan Bos": { "opponents": [ "Isidro Pitta" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Alessandro Circati": { "opponents": [ "Isidro Pitta" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jason Geria": { "opponents": [ "Isidro Pitta" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Diego Gómez vs Aiden O'Neill). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.68, Away: 0.53. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0211, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9975, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0473, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9794, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9951, "home_midfield_factor": 1.036, "away_midfield_factor": 0.966, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5215, "away_avg_quality": 0.4637, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0578, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.6154, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.5862, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.0424, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.104, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2289, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1457, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0104, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.019, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.188, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.816, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1884, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.816, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.188, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-25T13:32:40Z" }