{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Curaçao", "away_team": "Côte d'Ivoire", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260625", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "5-4-1", "away_formation": "4-1-4-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-2", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.128, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.128 }, { "score": "0-3", "probability": 0.1146 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0953 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0836 }, { "score": "0-4", "probability": 0.077 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0355, "0-1": 0.0953, "0-2": 0.128, "0-3": 0.1146, "0-4": 0.077, "0-5": 0.0414, "0-6": 0.0185, "0-7": 0.0071, "0-8": 0.0024, "0-9": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.0232, "1-1": 0.0622, "1-2": 0.0836, "1-3": 0.0749, "1-4": 0.0503, "1-5": 0.027, "1-6": 0.0121, "1-7": 0.0046, "1-8": 0.0016, "2-0": 0.0076, "2-1": 0.0203, "2-2": 0.0273, "2-3": 0.0244, "2-4": 0.0164, "2-5": 0.0088, "2-6": 0.004, "2-7": 0.0015, "2-8": 0.0005, "3-0": 0.0016, "3-1": 0.0044, "3-2": 0.0059, "3-3": 0.0053, "3-4": 0.0036, "3-5": 0.0019, "3-6": 0.0009, "4-1": 0.0007, "4-2": 0.001, "4-3": 0.0009, "4-4": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.0664, "draw": 0.1309, "away_win": 0.8027 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6484, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3516, "btts_yes": 0.4469, "btts_no": 0.5531, "home_clean_sheet": 0.0681, "away_clean_sheet": 0.5205 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 83.32, "MCR": 79.94, "ATR": 85.54, "GK": 89.42 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 83.87, "MCR": 84.25, "ATR": 83.11, "GK": 83.09 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Curaçao vs Côte d'Ivoire. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Franck Kessié, Amad Diallo", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 5-4-1 and 4-1-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Tahith Chong vs Amad Diallo). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.54, Away: 0.86. Home danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest." }, "confidence": 0.87, "home_lambda": 0.653, "away_lambda": 2.687 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.0664, "draw": 0.1309, "away_win": 0.8027 }, "favorite": "Côte d'Ivoire", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8027, "fair_spread": -2.034, "fair_total": 3.34, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Curaçao", "estimate": 0.653, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Côte d'Ivoire", "estimate": 2.687, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6484, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4469, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Curaçao", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0681, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Côte d'Ivoire", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5205, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Leandro Bacuna (Curaçao)", "estimate": 0.1453, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Franck Kessié (Côte d'Ivoire)", "estimate": 0.863, "probability": 0.5165, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Joshua Brenet (Curaçao)", "estimate": 0.0883, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Yan Diomande (Côte d'Ivoire)", "estimate": 0.3211, "probability": 0.2362, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.34, "expected_total_shots": 21, "expected_total_passes": 681, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.2, "possession_home_pct": 46.9, "possession_away_pct": 53.1, "notes": "Côte d'Ivoire projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Côte d'Ivoire", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8027, "script": "Côte d'Ivoire is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -2.03 goals and fair total 3.34.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Curaçao must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Côte d'Ivoire lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Côte d'Ivoire chance creation leans on Franck Kessié against Juninho Bacuna in Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest; Côte d'Ivoire projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Curaçao: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Sontje Hansen, Riechedly Bazoer, Shurandy Sambo.", "Côte d'Ivoire: starters carry the main goal usage through Franck Kessié, Amad Diallo; bench watchlist: Ousmane Diomande, Bazoumana Touré, Evan Ndicka.", "Assist usage should flow through Amad Diallo; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Côte d'Ivoire tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.67 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Curaçao is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Côte d'Ivoire.", "Curaçao wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Curaçao": { "formation": "5-4-1", "players": { "Jürgen Locadia": { "player_id": 97409, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 193, "market_value": 215000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0565, "goal_rate": 0.0004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 85.542, "minutes": 74, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 7.8498, "dispossessed": 0.9812, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Odilon Kossounou, Guéla Doué", "opponent_faced": "Odilon Kossounou, Guéla Doué", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186906, "match_date": "2026-06-21", "home_team": "Ecuador", "away_team": "Curaçao", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Curaçao", "opponent": "Ecuador", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1098, "expected_assists": 0.0105, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 11, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186899, "match_date": "2026-06-14", "home_team": "Germany", "away_team": "Curaçao", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Curaçao", "opponent": "Germany", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0283, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6380, "combined_rank_score": 582.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 753.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.542, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jürgen Locadia", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ismail Sayad", "ranking": 6375 }, { "player_name": "Christian Valladolid", "ranking": 6376 }, { "player_name": "Ayman Moka", "ranking": 6377 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Sowah", "ranking": 6378 }, { "player_name": "Radosław Żelezny", "ranking": 6379 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Árni Frederiksberg", "ranking": 6381 }, { "player_name": "Víctor Griffith", "ranking": 6382 }, { "player_name": "Marko Kerkez", "ranking": 6383 }, { "player_name": "Luis Cárdenas", "ranking": 6384 }, { "player_name": "Coniah Boyce-Clarke", "ranking": 6385 } ] } } }, "Juninho Bacuna": { "player_id": 788971, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 178, "market_value": 1800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0892, "rating": 75.7267, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 54, "possession_lost": 15.6997, "dispossessed": 2.2863, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 3, "interceptions": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.1276, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 43, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.3, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ibrahim Sangaré", "opponent_faced": "Ibrahim Sangaré", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186906, "match_date": "2026-06-21", "home_team": "Ecuador", "away_team": "Curaçao", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Curaçao", "opponent": "Ecuador", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1429, "expected_assists": 0.0774, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186899, "match_date": "2026-06-14", "home_team": "Germany", "away_team": "Curaçao", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Curaçao", "opponent": "Germany", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0153, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 5, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 16195914, "match_date": "2026-05-20", "home_team": "Willem II Tilburg", "away_team": "FC Volendam", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Volendam", "opponent": "Willem II Tilburg", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "VriendenLoterij Eredivisie", "league_id": "37", "league_slug": "eredivisie", "league_country": "Netherlands", "season_id": "77012", "season_name": "VriendenLoterij Eredivisie 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14028531, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Volendam", "away_team": "SC Telstar", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Volendam", "opponent": "SC Telstar", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1137, "expected_assists": 0.1005, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "VriendenLoterij Eredivisie", "league_id": "37", "league_slug": "eredivisie", "league_country": "Netherlands", "season_id": "77012", "season_name": "VriendenLoterij Eredivisie 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, 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6026.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.7267, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Juninho Bacuna", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Vid Belec", "ranking": 18895 }, { "player_name": "Ramiro Funes Mori", "ranking": 18896 }, { "player_name": "Mikael Ellertsson", "ranking": 18897 }, { "player_name": "Samet Akaydın", "ranking": 18898 }, { "player_name": "Joel Robles", "ranking": 18899 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Paulinho", "ranking": 18901 }, { "player_name": "Stefan Mitrović", "ranking": 18902 }, { "player_name": "Paul Nardi", "ranking": 18903 }, { "player_name": "Juan Ferney Otero", "ranking": 18904 }, { "player_name": "Paul Arriola", "ranking": 18905 } ] } } }, "Leandro Bacuna": { "player_id": 74545, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 187, "market_value": 270000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1453, "rating": 86.4084, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 33, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 12.2654, "dispossessed": 0.9812, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1079, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, 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"away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.096, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 13927, "combined_rank_score": 474.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 872.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.5784, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Evann Guessand", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gonzalo Flores", "ranking": 13922 }, { "player_name": "Sagiv Jehezkel", "ranking": 13923 }, { "player_name": "Vitalie Damașcan", "ranking": 13924 }, { "player_name": "Lee Joon-Ho", "ranking": 13925 }, { "player_name": "Nelson Da Silva", "ranking": 13926 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dani Ceballos", "ranking": 13928 }, { "player_name": "Michael Vadulli", "ranking": 13929 }, { "player_name": "Seung-hyeon Cha", "ranking": 13930 }, { "player_name": "Angelo Stiller", "ranking": 13931 }, { "player_name": "Kingsley Sarfo", "ranking": 13932 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.69, "expected_assists": 0.87, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 388, "interceptions": 12, "tackles": 20, "avg_rating": 83.8, "possession_estimated_pct": 53.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Deveron Fonville", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.419, "defenders": [ "Ghislain Konan" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.435, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.401, "xg_contribution": 0.1236, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ghislain Konan", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.599 } ], "duel_analysis": "Deveron Fonville (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Ghislain Konan in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.124 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Sherel Constancio Floranus", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 855000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.411, "defenders": [ "Emmanuel Agbadou" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.595, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.273, "xg_contribution": 0.0395, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Emmanuel Agbadou", "role": "LB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.727 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sherel Constancio Floranus (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Emmanuel Agbadou in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €16M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.039 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Tahith Chong", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 3400000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.442, "defenders": [ "Ghislain Konan" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.435, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.499, "xg_contribution": 0.0358, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ghislain Konan", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.501 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tahith Chong (LM) is evenly matched against Ghislain Konan in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Projected xG contribution: 0.036 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Juninho Bacuna", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1800000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.422, "defenders": [ "Ibrahim Sangaré" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.3, "xg_contribution": 0.0648, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ibrahim Sangaré", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.7 } ], "duel_analysis": "Juninho Bacuna (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ibrahim Sangaré in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.065 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Leandro Bacuna", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 270000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.403, "defenders": [ "Ibrahim Sangaré" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.327, "xg_contribution": 0.1107, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ibrahim Sangaré", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.673 } ], "duel_analysis": "Leandro Bacuna (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Ibrahim Sangaré in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.111 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jürgen Locadia", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 215000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.403, "defenders": [ "Odilon Kossounou", "Guéla Doué" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.613, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.05, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Odilon Kossounou", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Guéla Doué", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jürgen Locadia (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Odilon Kossounou and Guéla Doué in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €18M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.050 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Joshua Brenet", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 905000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.411, "defenders": [ "Emmanuel Agbadou" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.595, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.333, "xg_contribution": 0.1114, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Emmanuel Agbadou", "role": "LB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.667 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joshua Brenet (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Emmanuel Agbadou in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €16M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.111 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Amad Diallo", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Livano Comenencia" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.406, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.537, "xg_contribution": 0.2604, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Livano Comenencia", "role": "CB", "market_value": 480000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.463 } ], "duel_analysis": "Amad Diallo (LM) is slightly favored against Livano Comenencia in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.260 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Christ Inao Oulaï", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 22000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.65, "defenders": [ "Juninho Bacuna" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.422, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.502, "xg_contribution": 0.089, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Juninho Bacuna", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.498 } ], "duel_analysis": "Christ Inao Oulaï (CM) is slightly favored against Juninho Bacuna in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€22M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.089 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Franck Kessié", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 10800000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.532, "defenders": [ "Juninho Bacuna" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.422, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.489, "xg_contribution": 0.3538, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Juninho Bacuna", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.511 } ], "duel_analysis": "Franck Kessié (CM) is evenly matched against Juninho Bacuna in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.354 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Yan Diomande", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 99000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.893, "defenders": [ "Livano Comenencia", "Armando Obispo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.426, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.38, "xg_contribution": 0.1137, "shots_in_zone": 2.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Livano Comenencia", "role": "CB", "market_value": 480000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.62 }, { "player": "Armando Obispo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.62 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yan Diomande (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Livano Comenencia and Armando Obispo in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€99M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.114 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ange-Yoan Bonny", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 34000000, "attacker_height": 189, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.746, "defenders": [ "Livano Comenencia" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.406, "duel_zone": "RM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.565, "xg_contribution": 0.0419, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Livano Comenencia", "role": "CB", "market_value": 480000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.435 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ange-Yoan Bonny (RM) is slightly favored against Livano Comenencia in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€34M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.423, "away_midfield_power": 0.681, "home_creative_power": 0.497, "away_creative_power": 0.686, "home_defensive_power": 0.464, "away_defensive_power": 0.646, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.383, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Juninho Bacuna", "Leandro Bacuna", "Tahith Chong" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Ibrahim Sangaré", "Franck Kessié", "Amad Diallo", "Christ Inao Oulaï" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 46.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 53.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.6, "home_throughball_threat": 2.1, "away_throughball_threat": 2.7, "key_personal_duel": "Tahith Chong vs Amad Diallo", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.965, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.039 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "5-4-1", "away_formation": "4-1-4-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 5-4-1 and 4-1-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.653, "away_lambda": 2.687, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "LM vs CB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Deveron Fonville": { "opponents": [ "Ghislain Konan" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Sherel Constancio Floranus": { "opponents": [ "Emmanuel Agbadou" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Tahith Chong": { "opponents": [ "Ghislain Konan", "Franck Kessié" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Juninho Bacuna": { "opponents": [ "Ibrahim Sangaré", "Christ Inao Oulaï", "Franck Kessié", "Amad Diallo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Leandro Bacuna": { "opponents": [ "Ibrahim Sangaré", "Christ Inao Oulaï" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jürgen Locadia": { "opponents": [ "Odilon Kossounou", "Guéla Doué" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Joshua Brenet": { "opponents": [ "Emmanuel Agbadou" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Livano Comenencia": { "opponents": [ "Amad Diallo", "Yan Diomande", "Ange-Yoan Bonny" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Armando Obispo": { "opponents": [ "Yan Diomande" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Eloy Room": { "opponents": [ "Ange-Yoan Bonny", "Yan Diomande" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jurien Gaari": { "opponents": [ "Ange-Yoan Bonny" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Ghislain Konan": { "opponents": [ "Deveron Fonville", "Tahith Chong" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Emmanuel Agbadou": { "opponents": [ "Sherel Constancio Floranus", "Joshua Brenet" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ibrahim Sangaré": { "opponents": [ "Juninho Bacuna", "Leandro Bacuna" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Odilon Kossounou": { "opponents": [ "Jürgen Locadia" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Guéla Doué": { "opponents": [ "Jürgen Locadia" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Amad Diallo": { "opponents": [ "Livano Comenencia", "Juninho Bacuna" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Christ Inao Oulaï": { "opponents": [ "Juninho Bacuna", "Leandro Bacuna" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Franck Kessié": { "opponents": [ "Juninho Bacuna", "Tahith Chong" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yan Diomande": { "opponents": [ "Livano Comenencia", "Armando Obispo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ange-Yoan Bonny": { "opponents": [ "Livano Comenencia" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yahia Fofana": { "opponents": [ "Jürgen Locadia", "Tahith Chong" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Tahith Chong vs Amad Diallo). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.54, Away: 0.86. Home danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9995, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0252, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.107, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9583, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9885, "home_midfield_factor": 0.965, "away_midfield_factor": 1.039, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4168, "away_avg_quality": 0.6517, "avg_quality_gap": -0.2349, "squad_value_gap_log": -2.536, "top5_value_gap_log": -2.3791, "attack_value_gap_log": -3.0349, "elite_count_gap": -2, "combined_quality_gap": -0.4115, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.9053, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.5761, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0241, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0776, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.4115, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1079, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9688, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.674, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 2.425, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.6741, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.4246, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 0.653, "final_away_lambda": 2.687 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-25T13:32:10Z" }