{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Ecuador", "away_team": "Germany", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260625", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1327, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1327 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1282 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1044 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1043 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0823 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1043, "0-1": 0.1282, "0-2": 0.0807, "0-3": 0.0336, "0-4": 0.0105, "0-5": 0.0026, "0-6": 0.0005, "1-0": 0.1044, "1-1": 0.1327, "1-2": 0.0823, "1-3": 0.0343, "1-4": 0.0107, "1-5": 0.0027, "1-6": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0537, "2-1": 0.0672, "2-2": 0.042, "2-3": 0.0175, "2-4": 0.0055, "2-5": 0.0014, "3-0": 0.0183, "3-1": 0.0228, "3-2": 0.0143, "3-3": 0.0059, "3-4": 0.0019, "4-0": 0.0047, "4-1": 0.0058, "4-2": 0.0036, "4-3": 0.0015, "5-0": 0.001, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3003, "draw": 0.2854, "away_win": 0.4143 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.396, "under_2_5_goals": 0.604, "btts_yes": 0.4572, "btts_no": 0.5428, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2865, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 88.45, "MCR": 87.17, "ATR": 79.71, "GK": 81.23 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 88.97, "MCR": 89.32, "ATR": 86.98, "GK": 89.37 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Ecuador vs Germany. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Enner Valencia, Deniz Undav", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Moisés Caicedo vs Angelo Stiller will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 0.66. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.71, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.25 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3003, "draw": 0.2854, "away_win": 0.4143 }, "favorite": "Germany", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4143, "fair_spread": -0.23, "fair_total": 2.27, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Ecuador", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Germany", "estimate": 1.25, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.396, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4572, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Ecuador", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2865, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Germany", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Enner Valencia (Ecuador)", "estimate": 0.3051, "probability": 0.3744, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Deniz Undav (Germany)", "estimate": 0.4335, "probability": 0.4108, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Moisés Caicedo (Ecuador)", "estimate": 0.4016, "probability": 0.3312, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Joshua Kimmich (Germany)", "estimate": 0.3093, "probability": 0.2962, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.27, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 908, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.1, "possession_home_pct": 48.6, "possession_away_pct": 51.4, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Germany", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4143, "script": "Germany is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.23 goals and fair total 2.27.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Ecuador must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Germany lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Germany chance creation leans on Deniz Undav against Piero Hincapié, Willian Pacho in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Ecuador: starters carry the main goal usage through Enner Valencia; bench watchlist: Nilson Angulo, Keny Arroyo, Kendry Páez.", "Germany: starters carry the main goal usage through Deniz Undav; bench watchlist: Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, Nick Woltemade.", "Assist usage should flow through Moisés Caicedo, Joshua Kimmich; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Germany tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.14 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Ecuador is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Germany.", "Ecuador wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Ecuador": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Enner Valencia": { "player_id": 106456, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 177, "market_value": 905000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3051, "goal_rate": 0.001, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 4, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 82.6267, "minutes": 80, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 7.1728, "dispossessed": 1.413, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 0.6182, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jamie Leweling, Antonio Rüdiger", "opponent_faced": "Jamie Leweling, Antonio Rüdiger", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3744, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0104, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186906, "match_date": "2026-06-21", "home_team": "Ecuador", "away_team": "Curaçao", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ecuador", "opponent": "Curaçao", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.4958, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "total_shots": 7, "shots_on_target": 5, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186904, "match_date": "2026-06-14", "home_team": "Côte d'Ivoire", "away_team": "Ecuador", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ecuador", "opponent": "Côte d'Ivoire", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0293, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 16167494, "match_date": "2026-05-18", "home_team": "Pumas UNAM", "away_team": "CF Pachuca", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "CF Pachuca", "opponent": "Pumas UNAM", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1865, "expected_assists": 0.0037, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Liga MX, Clausura", "league_id": "11620", "league_slug": "liga-mx-clausura", "league_country": "Mexico", "season_id": "87699", "season_name": "Liga MX, Clausura 2026", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 16166281, "match_date": "2026-05-15", "home_team": "CF Pachuca", "away_team": "Pumas UNAM", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "CF Pachuca", "opponent": "Pumas UNAM", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2008, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Liga MX, Clausura", "league_id": "11620", "league_slug": "liga-mx-clausura", "league_country": "Mexico", "season_id": "87699", "season_name": "Liga MX, Clausura 2026", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 16082388, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "CF Pachuca", "away_team": "CD Toluca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "CF Pachuca", "opponent": "CD Toluca", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9987, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Liga MX, Clausura", "league_id": "11620", "league_slug": "liga-mx-clausura", "league_country": "Mexico", "season_id": "87699", "season_name": "Liga MX, Clausura 2026", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 16081538, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "CD Toluca", "away_team": "CF Pachuca", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "CF Pachuca", "opponent": "CD Toluca", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0353, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Liga MX, Clausura", "league_id": "11620", "league_slug": "liga-mx-clausura", "league_country": "Mexico", "season_id": "87699", "season_name": "Liga MX, Clausura 2026", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15239038, "match_date": "2026-04-23", "home_team": "Club Tijuana", "away_team": "CF Pachuca", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "CF Pachuca", "opponent": "Club Tijuana", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0795, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Liga MX, Clausura", "league_id": "11620", "league_slug": "liga-mx-clausura", "league_country": "Mexico", "season_id": "87699", "season_name": "Liga MX, Clausura 2026", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14169218, "match_date": "2025-09-09", "home_team": "Ecuador", "away_team": "Argentina", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ecuador", "opponent": "Argentina", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 6.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14169216, "match_date": "2025-09-04", "home_team": "Paraguay", "away_team": "Ecuador", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ecuador", "opponent": "Paraguay", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 3, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13856226, "match_date": "2025-06-11", "home_team": "Peru", "away_team": "Ecuador", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ecuador", "opponent": "Peru", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 16073, "combined_rank_score": 1325.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 960.0, "sofascore_rating": 5.4, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1691.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.6267, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Enner Valencia", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Davy Roef", "ranking": 16068 }, { "player_name": "Sem Steijn", "ranking": 16069 }, { "player_name": "Eric Veiga", "ranking": 16070 }, { "player_name": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "ranking": 16071 }, { "player_name": "Zeki Çelik", "ranking": 16072 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Manu Morlanes", "ranking": 16074 }, { "player_name": "Tim Weah", "ranking": 16075 }, { "player_name": "Saúl Coco", "ranking": 16076 }, { "player_name": "Djibril Sow", "ranking": 16077 }, { "player_name": "Bojan Dimoski", "ranking": 16078 } ] } } }, "Gonzalo Plata": { "player_id": 937937, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 178, "market_value": 8600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 3, "expected_assists": 0.1637, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1279, "rating": 89.1662, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 38, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 7, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 43, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 78, "possession_lost": 18.0317, "dispossessed": 1.0018, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 8, "won_contest": 5, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 6, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 27, "total_progression": 133, "progressive_carries": 6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.25, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Maximilian Beier", "opponent_faced": "Maximilian Beier", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0897, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2289, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186906, "match_date": "2026-06-21", "home_team": "Ecuador", "away_team": "Curaçao", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ecuador", "opponent": "Curaçao", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3756, "expected_assists": 0.1685, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 43, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186904, "match_date": "2026-06-14", "home_team": "Côte d'Ivoire", "away_team": "Ecuador", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ecuador", "opponent": "Côte d'Ivoire", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.048, "expected_assists": 0.1886, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15832766, "match_date": "2026-05-27", "home_team": "Flamengo", "away_team": "Cusco FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Flamengo", "opponent": "Cusco FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2449, "expected_assists": 0.2662, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 5, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 13, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "CONMEBOL Libertadores", "league_id": "384", "league_slug": "conmebol-libertadores", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "87760", "season_name": "CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15235572, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Flamengo", "away_team": "Palmeiras", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Flamengo", "opponent": "Palmeiras", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "expected_assists": 0.0475, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Brasileirão Betano", "league_id": "325", "league_slug": "brasileirao-serie-a", "league_country": "Brazil", "season_id": "87678", "season_name": "Brasileiro Serie A 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14169218, "match_date": "2025-09-09", "home_team": "Ecuador", "away_team": "Argentina", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ecuador", "opponent": "Argentina", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, 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"expected_goals": 0.7525, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631372, "match_date": "2026-03-17", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631363, "match_date": "2026-03-11", "home_team": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 7.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7884, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1679, "combined_rank_score": 260.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 126.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3333, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 395.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.3515, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kai Havertz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jonatás Noro", "ranking": 1674 }, { "player_name": "Matthew Corcoran", "ranking": 1675 }, { "player_name": "Stefan Tomović", "ranking": 1676 }, { "player_name": "Hamidou Kante", "ranking": 1677 }, { "player_name": "Angelo Mina", "ranking": 1678 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Adam Ennafati", "ranking": 1680 }, { "player_name": "Ahmed Nadhir Benbouali", "ranking": 1681 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Baleba", "ranking": 1682 }, { "player_name": "Asbjorn Bøndergaard", "ranking": 1683 }, { "player_name": "Jean Pedroso", "ranking": 1684 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.25, "expected_assists": 1.25, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 9, "total_passes": 431, "interceptions": 11, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 88.8, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ángelo Preciado", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Antonio Rüdiger", "Malick Thiaw" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.631, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2017, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonio Rüdiger", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Malick Thiaw", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ángelo Preciado (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Antonio Rüdiger and Malick Thiaw in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €24M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.202 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Enner Valencia", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 905000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.411, "defenders": [ "Jamie Leweling", "Antonio Rüdiger" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.621, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.384, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jamie Leweling", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 37000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Antonio Rüdiger", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enner Valencia (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jamie Leweling and Antonio Rüdiger in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €22M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.384 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Gonzalo Plata", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 8600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.506, "defenders": [ "Maximilian Beier" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.796, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.25, "xg_contribution": 0.1202, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Maximilian Beier", "role": "RB", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.75 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonzalo Plata (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Maximilian Beier in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€9M vs €43M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.120 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Alan Franco", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 4700000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.458, "defenders": [ "David Raum" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.27, "xg_contribution": 0.0589, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Raum", "role": "LB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.73 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alan Franco (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against David Raum in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €27M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Moisés Caicedo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 104000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.895, "defenders": [ "Jamie Leweling" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.764, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.485, "xg_contribution": 0.0209, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jamie Leweling", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 37000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.515 } ], "duel_analysis": "Moisés Caicedo (CM) is evenly matched against Jamie Leweling in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. The quality gap is significant (€104M vs €37M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.021 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Nadiem Amiri", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 15500000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.585, "defenders": [ "Piero Hincapié" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.809, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.303, "xg_contribution": 0.0708, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Piero Hincapié", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.697 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nadiem Amiri (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Piero Hincapié in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €46M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.071 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Joshua Kimmich", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 38000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.77, "defenders": [ "Moisés Caicedo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.895, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.356, "xg_contribution": 0.047, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Moisés Caicedo", "role": "CM", "market_value": 104000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.644 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joshua Kimmich (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Moisés Caicedo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. The quality gap is significant (€38M vs €104M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Leon Goretzka", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 189, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Piero Hincapié" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.809, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.316, "xg_contribution": 0.1, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Piero Hincapié", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.684 } ], "duel_analysis": "Leon Goretzka (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Piero Hincapié in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€11M vs €46M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.100 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Deniz Undav", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 20000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.631, "defenders": [ "Piero Hincapié", "Willian Pacho" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.843, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.4385, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Piero Hincapié", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Willian Pacho", "role": "CB", "market_value": 76000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Deniz Undav (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Piero Hincapié and Willian Pacho in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€20M vs €61M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.438 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.618, "away_midfield_power": 0.742, "home_creative_power": 0.595, "away_creative_power": 0.718, "home_defensive_power": 0.461, "away_defensive_power": 0.551, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.454, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Gonzalo Plata", "Pervis Estupiñán", "Moisés Caicedo", "Alan Franco", "Ángelo Preciado" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Nadiem Amiri", "Jamie Leweling", "Angelo Stiller", "Leon Goretzka", "Joshua Kimmich" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.8, "home_throughball_threat": 2.4, "away_throughball_threat": 2.8, "key_personal_duel": "Moisés Caicedo vs Angelo Stiller", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.993, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.025 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.25, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "RW vs CB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Ángelo Preciado": { "opponents": [ "Antonio Rüdiger", "Malick Thiaw", "Leon Goretzka" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Enner Valencia": { "opponents": [ "Jamie Leweling", "Antonio Rüdiger" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Gonzalo Plata": { "opponents": [ "Maximilian Beier", "Angelo Stiller" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alan Franco": { "opponents": [ "David Raum", "Nadiem Amiri" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Moisés Caicedo": { "opponents": [ "Jamie Leweling", "Joshua Kimmich" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Piero Hincapié": { "opponents": [ "Nadiem Amiri", "Leon Goretzka", "Deniz Undav" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Willian Pacho": { "opponents": [ "Deniz Undav" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pervis Estupiñán": { "opponents": [ "Jamie Leweling" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Hernán Galíndez": { "opponents": [ "Maximilian Beier", "Deniz Undav" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Joel Ordóñez": { "opponents": [ "Maximilian Beier" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "John Yeboah": { "opponents": [ "Malick Thiaw", "David Raum" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Antonio Rüdiger": { "opponents": [ "Ángelo Preciado", "Enner Valencia" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Malick Thiaw": { "opponents": [ "Ángelo Preciado" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jamie Leweling": { "opponents": [ "Enner Valencia", "Moisés Caicedo", "Pervis Estupiñán" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Maximilian Beier": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo Plata" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "David Raum": { "opponents": [ "Alan Franco" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nadiem Amiri": { "opponents": [ "Piero Hincapié", "Alan Franco" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Joshua Kimmich": { "opponents": [ "Moisés Caicedo" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Leon Goretzka": { "opponents": [ "Piero Hincapié", "Ángelo Preciado" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Deniz Undav": { "opponents": [ "Piero Hincapié", "Willian Pacho" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Angelo Stiller": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo Plata" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Oliver Baumann": { "opponents": [ "John Yeboah", "Enner Valencia" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Moisés Caicedo vs Angelo Stiller will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 0.66. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0122, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0246, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0857, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1585, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9482, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8829, "home_midfield_factor": 0.993, "away_midfield_factor": 1.025, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.6167, "away_avg_quality": 0.6844, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0677, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.0403, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.2752, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.3935, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0487, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0698, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.002, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.25, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.0018, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.25, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 1.25 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-25T13:31:13Z" }