{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Tunisia", "away_team": "Netherlands", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260625", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-4", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 4, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0982, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-4", "probability": 0.0982 }, { "score": "0-5", "probability": 0.0932 }, { "score": "0-3", "probability": 0.0828 }, { "score": "0-6", "probability": 0.0737 }, { "score": "1-4", "probability": 0.0638 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0047, "0-1": 0.0221, "0-2": 0.0524, "0-3": 0.0828, "0-4": 0.0982, "0-5": 0.0932, "0-6": 0.0737, "0-7": 0.0499, "0-8": 0.0296, "0-9": 0.0156, "1-0": 0.003, "1-1": 0.0143, "1-2": 0.034, "1-3": 0.0538, "1-4": 0.0638, "1-5": 0.0606, "1-6": 0.0479, "1-7": 0.0325, "1-8": 0.0192, "1-9": 0.0101, "2-0": 0.001, "2-1": 0.0047, "2-2": 0.0111, "2-3": 0.0175, "2-4": 0.0207, "2-5": 0.0197, "2-6": 0.0156, "2-7": 0.0105, "2-8": 0.0063, "2-9": 0.0033, "3-1": 0.001, "3-2": 0.0024, "3-3": 0.0038, "3-4": 0.0045, "3-5": 0.0043, "3-6": 0.0034, "3-7": 0.0023, "3-8": 0.0014, "3-9": 0.0007, "4-3": 0.0006, "4-4": 0.0007, "4-5": 0.0007, "4-6": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.0138, "draw": 0.0347, "away_win": 0.9515 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.9026, "under_2_5_goals": 0.0974, "btts_yes": 0.4737, "btts_no": 0.5263, "home_clean_sheet": 0.0089, "away_clean_sheet": 0.522 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 82.83, "MCR": 87.19, "ATR": 89.45, "GK": 89.33 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 91.19, "MCR": 91.23, "ATR": 84.34, "GK": 85.13 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Tunisia vs Netherlands. Most likely scoreline: 0-4. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Cody Gakpo, Brian Brobbey (3)", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~55% possession expected (Hannibal Mejbri vs Ryan Gravenberch). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.41, Away: 1.80. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: LW vs CB." }, "confidence": 0.95, "home_lambda": 0.65, "away_lambda": 4.744 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.0138, "draw": 0.0347, "away_win": 0.9515 }, "favorite": "Netherlands", "favorite_win_probability": 0.9515, "fair_spread": -4.094, "fair_total": 5.394, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Tunisia", "estimate": 0.65, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Netherlands", "estimate": 4.744, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.9026, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4737, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Tunisia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0089, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Netherlands", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.522, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ali Abdi (Tunisia)", "estimate": 0.2311, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Brian Brobbey (Netherlands)", "estimate": 2.2431, "probability": 0.9285, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Hannibal Mejbri (Tunisia)", "estimate": 0.1398, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Cody Gakpo (Netherlands)", "estimate": 0.2437, "probability": 0.1694, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 5.394, "expected_total_shots": 18, "expected_total_passes": 855, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.1, "possession_home_pct": 45.3, "possession_away_pct": 54.7, "notes": "Netherlands projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Netherlands", "favorite_win_probability": 0.9515, "script": "Netherlands is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -4.09 goals and fair total 5.39.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 9 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Tunisia must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Netherlands lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Netherlands chance creation leans on Brian Brobbey against Omar Rekik in LW vs CB; Netherlands projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Tunisia: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Sebastian Tounekti, Ismael Gharbi, Adem Arous.", "Netherlands: starters carry the main goal usage through Cody Gakpo, Brian Brobbey (3); bench watchlist: Jurriën Timber, Xavi Simons, Donyell Malen.", "Assist usage should flow through Denzel Dumfries; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Netherlands tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 9 total first-half shots, and 2.70 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Tunisia is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Netherlands.", "Tunisia wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Tunisia": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Firas Chaouat": { "player_id": 919198, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 185, "market_value": 1100000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1046, "goal_rate": 0.0004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 89.4506, "minutes": 19, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.4718, "dispossessed": 1.9625, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 11, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Virgil van Dijk, Ryan Gravenberch", "opponent_faced": "Virgil van Dijk, Ryan Gravenberch", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186963, "match_date": "2026-06-21", "home_team": "Tunisia", "away_team": "Japan", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Tunisia", "opponent": "Japan", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186951, "match_date": "2026-06-15", "home_team": "Sweden", "away_team": "Tunisia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Tunisia", "opponent": "Sweden", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2276, "combined_rank_score": 298.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 294.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.4506, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Firas Chaouat", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Hady Reyad", "ranking": 2271 }, { "player_name": "Kennedy Egbus Mikuni", "ranking": 2272 }, { "player_name": "Kai Matsuzaki", "ranking": 2273 }, { "player_name": "Filip Slavíček", "ranking": 2274 }, { "player_name": "André Ramalho", "ranking": 2275 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Saleh Hardani", "ranking": 2277 }, { 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"ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17678, "combined_rank_score": 2184.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 4136.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.0806, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Elias Achouri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Pedro Henrique", "ranking": 17673 }, { "player_name": "Juan Soriano", "ranking": 17674 }, { "player_name": "Jari De Busser", "ranking": 17675 }, { "player_name": "Ally Samatta", "ranking": 17676 }, { "player_name": "Raúl Fernández", "ranking": 17677 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Álex Sancris", "ranking": 17679 }, { "player_name": "Tobias Lawal", "ranking": 17680 }, { "player_name": "Martin Erlić", "ranking": 17681 }, { "player_name": "Jay Idzes", "ranking": 17682 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UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 14816, "combined_rank_score": 947.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 718.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.65, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1177.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8794, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Emmanuel Emegha", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nacho Pérez", "ranking": 14811 }, { "player_name": "Haxzel Quirós", "ranking": 14812 }, { "player_name": "Erick Sánchez", "ranking": 14813 }, { "player_name": "Vladislav Malkevich", "ranking": 14814 }, { "player_name": "Geon-ho Moon", "ranking": 14815 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Egor Khvalko", "ranking": 14817 }, { "player_name": "Abror Khusinov", "ranking": 14818 }, { "player_name": "Woo-young Cho", "ranking": 14819 }, { "player_name": "Georgi Rusev", "ranking": 14820 }, { "player_name": "Franco González", "ranking": 14821 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 4, "expected_goals": 4.74, "expected_assists": 1.18, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 10, "total_passes": 515, "interceptions": 11, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 90.04, "possession_estimated_pct": 54.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 9.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ali Abdi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.424, "defenders": [ "Virgil van Dijk", "Micky van de Ven" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.703, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1835, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Virgil van Dijk", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Micky van de Ven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ali Abdi (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Virgil van Dijk and Micky van de Ven in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €32M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.183 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Firas Chaouat", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 1100000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.414, "defenders": [ "Virgil van Dijk", "Ryan Gravenberch" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.736, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1288, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Virgil van Dijk", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ryan Gravenberch", "role": "CM", "market_value": 87000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Firas Chaouat (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Virgil van Dijk and Ryan Gravenberch in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €51M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.129 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Anis Ben Slimane", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 4099999, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.451, "defenders": [ "Crysencio Summerville" ], "defender_roles": [ "RW" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.77, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.353, "xg_contribution": 0.0675, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Crysencio Summerville", "role": "RW", "market_value": 38000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.647 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anis Ben Slimane (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Crysencio Summerville in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €38M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.067 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Elias Achouri", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Brian Brobbey" ], "defender_roles": [ "LW" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.732, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "xg_contribution": 0.0078, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Brian Brobbey", "role": "LW", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.703 } ], "duel_analysis": "Elias Achouri (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Brian Brobbey in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €32M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.008 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Hannibal Mejbri", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 15700000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.587, "defenders": [ "Ryan Gravenberch", "Denzel Dumfries" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.787, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Mid + CDM Pressing Trap", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.018, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ryan Gravenberch", "role": "CM", "market_value": 87000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Denzel Dumfries", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hannibal Mejbri (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ryan Gravenberch and Denzel Dumfries in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €56M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.018 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ryan Gravenberch", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 87000000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.887, "defenders": [ "Hannibal Mejbri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.587, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.587, "xg_contribution": 0.0496, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hannibal Mejbri", "role": "CM", "market_value": 15700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.413 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryan Gravenberch (CM) is slightly favored against Hannibal Mejbri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 59%. The quality gap is significant (€87M vs €16M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.050 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Tijjani Reijnders", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Hannibal Mejbri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.587, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.536, "xg_contribution": 0.0419, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hannibal Mejbri", "role": "CM", "market_value": 15700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.464 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tijjani Reijnders (CM) is slightly favored against Hannibal Mejbri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€48M vs €16M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Brian Brobbey", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Omar Rekik" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.406, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.543, "xg_contribution": 1.1703, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Omar Rekik", "role": "CB", "market_value": 515000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.457 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brian Brobbey (LW) is slightly favored against Omar Rekik in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 1.170 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Cody Gakpo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Omar Rekik", "Montassar Talbi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.45, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.399, "xg_contribution": 0.4758, "shots_in_zone": 2.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Omar Rekik", "role": "CB", "market_value": 515000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.601 }, { "player": "Montassar Talbi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.601 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cody Gakpo (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Omar Rekik and Montassar Talbi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 40%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.476 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Crysencio Summerville", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 38000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.77, "defenders": [ "Omar Rekik" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.406, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.536, "xg_contribution": 0.0655, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Omar Rekik", "role": "CB", "market_value": 515000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.464 } ], "duel_analysis": "Crysencio Summerville (RW) is slightly favored against Omar Rekik in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€38M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.065 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.511, "away_midfield_power": 0.865, "home_creative_power": 0.477, "away_creative_power": 0.873, "home_defensive_power": 0.431, "away_defensive_power": 0.98, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.371, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 6, "home_midfield_players": [ "Anis Ben Slimane", "Elias Achouri", "Hannibal Mejbri", "Ellyes Skhiri" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Cody Gakpo", "Crysencio Summerville", "Tijjani Reijnders", "Frenkie de Jong", "Ryan Gravenberch", "Denzel Dumfries" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 45.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 54.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.4, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.7, "home_throughball_threat": 2.0, "away_throughball_threat": 3.2, "key_personal_duel": "Hannibal Mejbri vs Ryan Gravenberch", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.948, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.052 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.06, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.06, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.65, "away_lambda": 4.744, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "LW vs CB", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Ali Abdi": { "opponents": [ "Virgil van Dijk", "Micky van de Ven" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Firas Chaouat": { "opponents": [ "Virgil van Dijk", "Ryan Gravenberch" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Anis Ben Slimane": { "opponents": [ "Crysencio Summerville", "Tijjani Reijnders" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Elias Achouri": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey", "Frenkie de Jong" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hannibal Mejbri": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Gravenberch", "Denzel Dumfries", "Tijjani Reijnders", "Crysencio Summerville" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Mid + CDM Pressing Trap", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Omar Rekik": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey", "Cody Gakpo", "Crysencio Summerville" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Montassar Talbi": { "opponents": [ "Cody Gakpo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ellyes Skhiri": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Gravenberch", "Cody Gakpo" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Aymen Dahmen": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey", "Frenkie de Jong" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Amine Ben Hmida": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Yan Valery": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Virgil van Dijk": { "opponents": [ "Ali Abdi", "Firas Chaouat" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Micky van de Ven": { "opponents": [ "Ali Abdi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ryan Gravenberch": { "opponents": [ "Firas Chaouat", "Hannibal Mejbri", "Ellyes Skhiri" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Crysencio Summerville": { "opponents": [ "Anis Ben Slimane", "Omar Rekik", "Hannibal Mejbri" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Brian Brobbey": { "opponents": [ "Elias Achouri", "Omar Rekik" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Denzel Dumfries": { "opponents": [ "Hannibal Mejbri" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Mid + CDM Pressing Trap", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tijjani Reijnders": { "opponents": [ "Hannibal Mejbri", "Anis Ben Slimane" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Cody Gakpo": { "opponents": [ "Omar Rekik", "Montassar Talbi", "Ellyes Skhiri" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Frenkie de Jong": { "opponents": [ "Elias Achouri" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Bart Verbruggen": { "opponents": [ "Firas Chaouat", "Ellyes Skhiri" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jan Paul van Hecke": { "opponents": [ "Firas Chaouat" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~55% possession expected (Hannibal Mejbri vs Ryan Gravenberch). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.41, Away: 1.80. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: LW vs CB.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8767, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0223, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.088, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9145, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9984, "home_midfield_factor": 0.948, "away_midfield_factor": 1.052, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4511, "away_avg_quality": 0.7697, "avg_quality_gap": -0.3186, "squad_value_gap_log": -2.1493, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.8828, "attack_value_gap_log": -2.1309, "elite_count_gap": -5, "combined_quality_gap": -0.4461, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.95, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.6, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.013, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1306, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.4461, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1165, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9654, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.663, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 4.249, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.663, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 4.2486, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 0.65, "final_away_lambda": 4.744 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-25T13:31:41Z" }