{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Egypt", "away_team": "Iran", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260626", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-4-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0994, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0994 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0968 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0947 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0919 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0681 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0449, "0-1": 0.0469, "0-2": 0.0247, "0-3": 0.0086, "0-4": 0.0023, "1-0": 0.0919, "1-1": 0.0968, "1-2": 0.0508, "1-3": 0.0178, "1-4": 0.0047, "1-5": 0.001, "2-0": 0.0947, "2-1": 0.0994, "2-2": 0.0522, "2-3": 0.0183, "2-4": 0.0048, "2-5": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0649, "3-1": 0.0681, "3-2": 0.0358, "3-3": 0.0125, "3-4": 0.0033, "3-5": 0.0007, "4-0": 0.0333, "4-1": 0.035, "4-2": 0.0184, "4-3": 0.0064, "4-4": 0.0017, "5-0": 0.0137, "5-1": 0.0144, "5-2": 0.0076, "5-3": 0.0026, "5-4": 0.0007, "6-0": 0.0047, "6-1": 0.0049, "6-2": 0.0026, "6-3": 0.0009, "7-0": 0.0014, "7-1": 0.0014, "7-2": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.6055, "draw": 0.2083, "away_win": 0.1862 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6001, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3999, "btts_yes": 0.567, "btts_no": 0.433, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3499, "away_clean_sheet": 0.128 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 88.13, "MCR": 90.85, "ATR": 91.48, "GK": 89.62 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 67.43, "MCR": 87.69, "ATR": 86.99, "GK": 88.83 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Egypt vs Iran. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Omar Marmoush, Mohamed Salah, Mohammad Mohebi", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~51% possession expected (Mohamed Salah vs Saeid Ezatolahi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.25, Away: 0.85. Home danger zone: CAM vs CM. Away danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel." }, "confidence": 0.79, "home_lambda": 2.056, "away_lambda": 1.05 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.6055, "draw": 0.2083, "away_win": 0.1862 }, "favorite": "Egypt", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6055, "fair_spread": 1.006, "fair_total": 3.106, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Egypt", "estimate": 2.056, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Iran", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6001, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.567, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Egypt", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3499, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Iran", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.128, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Mohamed Salah (Egypt)", "estimate": 0.6094, "probability": 0.4874, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ramin Rezaeian (Iran)", "estimate": 0.2146, "probability": 0.1862, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Mohamed Salah (Egypt)", "estimate": 0.1831, "probability": 0.3494, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ramin Rezaeian (Iran)", "estimate": 0.1771, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.106, "expected_total_shots": 22, "expected_total_passes": 726, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.1, "possession_home_pct": 51.1, "possession_away_pct": 48.9, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Egypt", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6055, "script": "Egypt is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.01 goals and fair total 3.11.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 11 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Iran must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Egypt lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Egypt chance creation leans on Mohamed Salah against Saman Ghoddos in CAM vs CM; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Egypt: starters carry the main goal usage through Omar Marmoush, Mohamed Salah; bench watchlist: Mahmoud Trézéguet, Zizo, Mohamed Abdelmonem.", "Iran: starters carry the main goal usage through Mohammad Mohebi; bench watchlist: Mehdi Ghayedi, Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh, Aria Yousefi.", "Assist usage should flow through Mohamed Salah; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Egypt tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 11 total first-half shots, and 1.55 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Iran is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Egypt.", "Iran wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Egypt": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Omar Marmoush": { "player_id": 873554, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 183, "market_value": 55000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3978, "goal_rate": 0.3196, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0779, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 91.4797, "minutes": 74, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 5.5099, "dispossessed": 1.3224, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2645, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.411, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ehsan Hajsafi, Shoja Khalilzadeh", "opponent_faced": "Ehsan Hajsafi, Shoja Khalilzadeh", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4407, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0694, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186827, "match_date": "2026-06-22", "home_team": "New Zealand", "away_team": "Egypt", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Egypt", "opponent": "New Zealand", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1206, "expected_assists": 0.1327, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186837, "match_date": "2026-06-15", "home_team": "Belgium", "away_team": "Egypt", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Egypt", "opponent": "Belgium", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4864, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "total_shots": 5, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0944, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2954, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0988, "expected_assists": 0.0678, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631365, "match_date": "2026-03-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631329, "match_date": "2026-03-11", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0134, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 167, "combined_rank_score": 128.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 216.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.4797, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Omar Marmoush", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Igor Vujačić", "ranking": 162 }, { "player_name": "César Montes", "ranking": 163 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Méndez", "ranking": 164 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Tah", "ranking": 165 }, { "player_name": "Marc Cucurella", "ranking": 166 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Reinaldo", "ranking": 168 }, { "player_name": "Dostonbek Khamdamov", "ranking": 169 }, { "player_name": "Yarek Gasiorowski", "ranking": 170 }, { "player_name": "Rey Manaj", "ranking": 171 }, { "player_name": "Tiago Gabriel", "ranking": 172 } ] } } }, "Mostafa Ziko": { "player_id": 1418782, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 180, "market_value": 2000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1769, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4184, "rating": 88.8702, "minutes": 76, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 16, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 10.7935, "dispossessed": 1.9625, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.9944, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1177, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 28, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 1.8, "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ehsan Hajsafi", "opponent_faced": "Ehsan Hajsafi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3464, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1562, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186827, "match_date": "2026-06-22", "home_team": "New Zealand", "away_team": "Egypt", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Egypt", "opponent": "New Zealand", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.5247, "expected_assists": 0.3389, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186837, "match_date": "2026-06-15", "home_team": "Belgium", "away_team": "Egypt", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Egypt", "opponent": "Belgium", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.162, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1600, "combined_rank_score": 354.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 449.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8702, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mostafa Ziko", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Iago Silva", "ranking": 1595 }, { "player_name": "Rodolfo Aloko", "ranking": 1596 }, { "player_name": "Taha Abdi Ali", "ranking": 1597 }, { "player_name": "Saba Kharebashvili", "ranking": 1598 }, { "player_name": "Ivan Guteša", "ranking": 1599 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kostas Galanopoulos", "ranking": 1601 }, { "player_name": "Giacomo Faticanti", "ranking": 1602 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Goncalves", "ranking": 1603 }, { "player_name": "Nikita Stoinov", "ranking": 1604 }, { "player_name": "Gustavo del Prete", "ranking": 1605 } ] } } }, "Emam Ashour": { "player_id": 967032, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 182, "market_value": 4200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0483, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3778, "rating": 88.9783, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 33, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 54, "possession_lost": 12.1536, "dispossessed": 1.311, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.9957, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.1676, "ball_carries": 20, 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"position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 26, "height": 186, "market_value": 1300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0106, "rating": 88.6724, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1980, "combined_rank_score": 323.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 365.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6724, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Amirmohammad Razzaghinia", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Skima Togbe", "ranking": 1975 }, { "player_name": "Higor Meritão", "ranking": 1976 }, { "player_name": "Ahmed Ramadan", "ranking": 1977 }, { "player_name": "Héctor Herrera", "ranking": 1978 }, { "player_name": "Kevyson", "ranking": 1979 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Róber Pier", "ranking": 1981 }, { "player_name": "José Abella", "ranking": 1982 }, { "player_name": "Emiliano Clavijo", "ranking": 1983 }, { "player_name": "Alex Meret", "ranking": 1984 }, { "player_name": "Vanja Ilić", "ranking": 1985 } ] } } }, "Mahdi Torabi": { "player_id": 812953, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 185, "market_value": 1300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 91.6396, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "ball_recovery": 1, 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"data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mahdi Torabi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ahmed Belhadji", "ranking": 1419 }, { "player_name": "Luc Zogbé", "ranking": 1420 }, { "player_name": "Keiber Lamadrid", "ranking": 1421 }, { "player_name": "Igor Sergeev", "ranking": 1422 }, { "player_name": "Diego Callai", "ranking": 1423 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matthew Longstaff", "ranking": 1425 }, { "player_name": "Adrián Kaprálik", "ranking": 1426 }, { "player_name": "Virgilio Olaya", "ranking": 1427 }, { "player_name": "Gonzalo Nápoli", "ranking": 1428 }, { "player_name": "Owen González", "ranking": 1429 } ] } } }, "Mehdi Ghayedi": { "player_id": 881182, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 164, "market_value": 4700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0078, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.052, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 90.6015, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 2.506, "dispossessed": 0.9875, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.38, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186832, "match_date": "2026-06-16", "home_team": "Iran", "away_team": "New Zealand", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Iran", "opponent": "New Zealand", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "expected_assists": 0.1876, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 575, "combined_rank_score": 228.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 233.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6015, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mehdi Ghayedi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lucas Veríssimo", "ranking": 570 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Zapelli", "ranking": 571 }, { "player_name": "Victor Gabriel", "ranking": 572 }, { "player_name": "Ryan Francisco", "ranking": 573 }, { "player_name": "Kayky", "ranking": 574 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Iván Jaime", "ranking": 576 }, { "player_name": "Willi Orbán", "ranking": 577 }, { "player_name": "André Amaro", "ranking": 578 }, { "player_name": "Nair Tiknizyan", "ranking": 579 }, { "player_name": "Franco Romero", "ranking": 580 } ] } } }, "Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh": { "player_id": 905472, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 176, "market_value": 2400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0096, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0037, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 88.4418, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.8273, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186499, "match_date": "2026-06-21", "home_team": "Belgium", "away_team": "Iran", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Iran", "opponent": "Belgium", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0547, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186832, "match_date": "2026-06-16", "home_team": "Iran", "away_team": "New Zealand", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Iran", "opponent": "New Zealand", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 941, "combined_rank_score": 332.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 419.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.4418, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Chris Ramos", "ranking": 936 }, { "player_name": "Thiago Maia", "ranking": 937 }, { "player_name": "Juan Dominguez", "ranking": 938 }, { "player_name": "Maksim Samorodov", "ranking": 939 }, { "player_name": "Filip Uremović", "ranking": 940 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mycael", "ranking": 942 }, { "player_name": "Kaick", "ranking": 943 }, { "player_name": "Cho Sang-Jun", "ranking": 944 }, { "player_name": "Adson", "ranking": 945 }, { "player_name": "Emiliano Gómez", "ranking": 946 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.05, "expected_assists": 0.37, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 304, "interceptions": 13, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 80.24, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mostafa Ziko", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 2000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.425, "defenders": [ "Ehsan Hajsafi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.403, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "xg_contribution": 0.2816, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ehsan Hajsafi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 260000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.554 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mostafa Ziko (LW) is evenly matched against Ehsan Hajsafi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.282 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Mohamed Salah", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Saman Ghoddos" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.415, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.514, "xg_contribution": 0.4497, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Saman Ghoddos", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.486 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mohamed Salah (CAM) is slightly favored against Saman Ghoddos in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.450 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Emam Ashour", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 4200000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.452, "defenders": [ "Ehsan Hajsafi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.403, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.466, "xg_contribution": 0.2616, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ehsan Hajsafi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 260000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.534 } ], "duel_analysis": "Emam Ashour (RW) is evenly matched against Ehsan Hajsafi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.262 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Omar Marmoush", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 55000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.84, "defenders": [ "Ehsan Hajsafi", "Shoja Khalilzadeh" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.402, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.411, "xg_contribution": 0.2586, "shots_in_zone": 2.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ehsan Hajsafi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 260000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.589 }, { "player": "Shoja Khalilzadeh", "role": "CB", "market_value": 110000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.589 } ], "duel_analysis": "Omar Marmoush (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Ehsan Hajsafi and Shoja Khalilzadeh in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 41%. The quality gap is significant (€55M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.259 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mohammad Mohebi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2300000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.429, "defenders": [ "Rami Rabia", "Yasser Ibrahim" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.405, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.221, "xg_contribution": 0.1883, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rami Rabia", "role": "CB", "market_value": 580000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.779 }, { "player": "Yasser Ibrahim", "role": "CB", "market_value": 270000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.779 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mohammad Mohebi (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Rami Rabia and Yasser Ibrahim in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Projected xG contribution: 0.188 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ramin Rezaeian", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 230000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.403, "defenders": [ "Mohamed Hany" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.417, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.477, "xg_contribution": 0.2635, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mohamed Hany", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.523 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ramin Rezaeian (LM) is evenly matched against Mohamed Hany in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.264 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Mehdi Taremi", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.426, "defenders": [ "Ahmed Fatouh" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.412, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.502, "xg_contribution": 0.1932, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ahmed Fatouh", "role": "LB", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.498 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mehdi Taremi (RM) is slightly favored against Ahmed Fatouh in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Projected xG contribution: 0.193 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ali Nemati", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 515000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.406, "defenders": [ "Emam Ashour", "Mohamed Hany" ], "defender_roles": [ "RW", "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.435, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "xg_contribution": 0.0557, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Emam Ashour", "role": "RW", "market_value": 4200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769 }, { "player": "Mohamed Hany", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ali Nemati (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Emam Ashour and Mohamed Hany in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Projected xG contribution: 0.056 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Alireza Jahanbakhsh", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 485000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.406, "defenders": [ "Mostafa Ziko", "Ahmed Fatouh" ], "defender_roles": [ "LW", "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.419, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.238, "xg_contribution": 0.0551, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mostafa Ziko", "role": "LW", "market_value": 2000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.762 }, { "player": "Ahmed Fatouh", "role": "LB", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.762 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alireza Jahanbakhsh (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Mostafa Ziko and Ahmed Fatouh in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. Projected xG contribution: 0.055 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Saman Ghoddos", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1200000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.415, "defenders": [ "Mohanad Lasheen" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.44, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.431, "xg_contribution": 0.0926, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mohanad Lasheen", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.569 } ], "duel_analysis": "Saman Ghoddos (CM) is evenly matched against Mohanad Lasheen in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.093 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.531, "away_midfield_power": 0.413, "home_creative_power": 0.537, "away_creative_power": 0.463, "home_defensive_power": 0.469, "away_defensive_power": 0.481, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.563, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Mostafa Ziko", "Emam Ashour", "Mohamed Salah", "Mohanad Lasheen", "Marwan Attia" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Ramin Rezaeian", "Saman Ghoddos", "Saeid Ezatolahi" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "home_throughball_threat": 2.2, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Mohamed Salah vs Saeid Ezatolahi", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.018, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.986 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-4-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.056, "away_lambda": 1.05, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "CAM vs CM", "LW vs CB" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Mostafa Ziko": { "opponents": [ "Ehsan Hajsafi", "Alireza Jahanbakhsh", "Saman Ghoddos" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mohamed Salah": { "opponents": [ "Saman Ghoddos" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Emam Ashour": { "opponents": [ "Ehsan Hajsafi", "Ali Nemati", "Saeid Ezatolahi" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Omar Marmoush": { "opponents": [ "Ehsan Hajsafi", "Shoja Khalilzadeh" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Rami Rabia": { "opponents": [ "Mohammad Mohebi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Yasser Ibrahim": { "opponents": [ "Mohammad Mohebi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mohamed Hany": { "opponents": [ "Ramin Rezaeian", "Ali Nemati" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ahmed Fatouh": { "opponents": [ "Mehdi Taremi", "Alireza Jahanbakhsh" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mohanad Lasheen": { "opponents": [ "Saman Ghoddos", "Saeid Ezatolahi" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marwan Attia": { "opponents": [ "Ramin Rezaeian" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Mostafa Shobeir": { "opponents": [ "Mehdi Taremi", "Mohammad Mohebi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Ehsan Hajsafi": { "opponents": [ "Mostafa Ziko", "Emam Ashour", "Omar Marmoush" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Saman Ghoddos": { "opponents": [ "Mohamed Salah", "Mohanad Lasheen", "Mostafa Ziko" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Shoja Khalilzadeh": { "opponents": [ "Omar Marmoush" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mohammad Mohebi": { "opponents": [ "Rami Rabia", "Yasser Ibrahim" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ramin Rezaeian": { "opponents": [ "Mohamed Hany", "Marwan Attia" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mehdi Taremi": { "opponents": [ "Ahmed Fatouh" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ali Nemati": { "opponents": [ "Emam Ashour", "Mohamed Hany" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alireza Jahanbakhsh": { "opponents": [ "Mostafa Ziko", "Ahmed Fatouh" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Saeid Ezatolahi": { "opponents": [ "Mohanad Lasheen", "Emam Ashour" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Alireza Beiranvand": { "opponents": [ "Omar Marmoush", "Mohamed Salah" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Hossein Kanaani": { "opponents": [ "Omar Marmoush" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~51% possession expected (Mohamed Salah vs Saeid Ezatolahi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.25, Away: 0.85. Home danger zone: CAM vs CM. Away danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0229, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0193, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.031, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.093, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0165, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0155, "home_midfield_factor": 1.018, "away_midfield_factor": 0.986, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4887, "away_avg_quality": 0.413, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0757, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.6148, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.6975, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.8035, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2093, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.4606, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2931, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0297, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0312, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 2.056, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.812, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.0557, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8122, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 2.056, "final_away_lambda": 1.05 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-26T13:34:23Z" }