{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Algeria", "away_team": "Austria", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260627", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1335, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1335 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1288 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1073 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1073 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0809 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1073, "0-1": 0.1288, "0-2": 0.0793, "0-3": 0.0323, "0-4": 0.0099, "0-5": 0.0024, "1-0": 0.1073, "1-1": 0.1335, "1-2": 0.0809, "1-3": 0.033, "1-4": 0.0101, "1-5": 0.0025, "1-6": 0.0005, "2-0": 0.0553, "2-1": 0.0675, "2-2": 0.0413, "2-3": 0.0168, "2-4": 0.0051, "2-5": 0.0013, "3-0": 0.0188, "3-1": 0.023, "3-2": 0.014, "3-3": 0.0057, "3-4": 0.0017, "4-0": 0.0048, "4-1": 0.0059, "4-2": 0.0036, "4-3": 0.0015, "5-0": 0.001, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3056, "draw": 0.2882, "away_win": 0.4063 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3885, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6115, "btts_yes": 0.452, "btts_no": 0.548, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2946, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 85.44, "MCR": 82.28, "ATR": 81.78, "GK": 77.43 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 87.18, "MCR": 85.74, "ATR": 87.63, "GK": 79.7 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Algeria vs Austria. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Amine Gouiri, Marko Arnautović", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Farès Chaïbi vs Nicolas Seiwald will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.66, Away: 0.83. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.71, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.222 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3056, "draw": 0.2882, "away_win": 0.4063 }, "favorite": "Austria", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4063, "fair_spread": -0.202, "fair_total": 2.242, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Algeria", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Austria", "estimate": 1.222, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3885, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.452, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Algeria", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2946, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Austria", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Amine Gouiri (Algeria)", "estimate": 0.3059, "probability": 0.3943, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Marko Arnautović (Austria)", "estimate": 0.5539, "probability": 0.3556, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Riyad Mahrez (Algeria)", "estimate": 0.2353, "probability": 0.2838, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Marcel Sabitzer (Austria)", "estimate": 0.247, "probability": 0.2824, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.242, "expected_total_shots": 22, "expected_total_passes": 989, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.3, "possession_home_pct": 49.0, "possession_away_pct": 51.0, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Austria", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4063, "script": "Austria is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.20 goals and fair total 2.24.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 11 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Algeria must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Austria lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Austria chance creation leans on Marko Arnautović against Ramy Bensebaini, Aïssa Mandi in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Algeria: starters carry the main goal usage through Amine Gouiri; bench watchlist: Anis Hadj Moussa, Mohamed Amoura, Houssem Aouar.", "Austria: starters carry the main goal usage through Marko Arnautović; bench watchlist: Christoph Baumgartner, Paul Wanner, David Affengruber.", "Assist usage should flow through Riyad Mahrez, Marcel Sabitzer; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Austria tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 11 total first-half shots, and 1.12 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Algeria is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Austria.", "Algeria wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Algeria": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Amine Gouiri": { "player_id": 859026, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 180, "market_value": 30000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3059, "goal_rate": 0.7924, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 85.8224, "minutes": 78, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 6.3916, "dispossessed": 1.5979, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.6605, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 0, "opponent_faced": "Marcel Sabitzer", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3943, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.047, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186740, "match_date": "2026-06-23", "home_team": "Jordan", "away_team": "Algeria", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Algeria", "opponent": "Jordan", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.491, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186854, "match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Algeria", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Algeria", "opponent": "Argentina", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0118, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14061907, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Olympique de Marseille", "away_team": "Stade Rennais", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Olympique de Marseille", "opponent": "Stade Rennais", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5564, "expected_assists": 0.258, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14064504, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Le Havre", "away_team": "Olympique de Marseille", 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"player_name": "Amine Gouiri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Anthony Alvarez", "ranking": 9892 }, { "player_name": "Osman Rivera", "ranking": 9893 }, { "player_name": "Abrorjon Aliev", "ranking": 9894 }, { "player_name": "Jefferson Pinilla", "ranking": 9895 }, { "player_name": "Jacinto Fuentes", "ranking": 9896 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Abbos Otakhonov", "ranking": 9898 }, { "player_name": "Jong-seong Lee", "ranking": 9899 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Mera", "ranking": 9900 }, { "player_name": "Patricio Coronel", "ranking": 9901 }, { "player_name": "Mcedi Vandala", "ranking": 9902 } ] } } }, "Hicham Boudaoui": { "player_id": 985923, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 176, "market_value": 11300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.2234, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 83.7518, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 34, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 43, "possession_lost": 5.8958, "dispossessed": 1.0113, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0506, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 32, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.213, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Xaver 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"match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Algeria", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Algeria", "opponent": "Argentina", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0612, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 16198895, "match_date": "2026-05-26", "home_team": "Saint-Étienne", "away_team": "Nice", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nice", "opponent": "Saint-Étienne", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": 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{ "player_name": "Ibrokhim Ibrokhimov", "ranking": 14849 }, { "player_name": "Bart Verbruggen", "ranking": 14850 } ] } } }, "Riyad Mahrez": { "player_id": 158213, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 179, "market_value": 5200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 3, "expected_assists": 0.2353, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1701, "rating": 90.9947, "minutes": 60, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 9.231, "dispossessed": 0.9894, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, 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"combined_rank_score": 1357.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 532.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 2182.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.4786, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marco Grüll", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Hugo Bueno", "ranking": 16623 }, { "player_name": "Santi Cazorla", "ranking": 16624 }, { "player_name": "Leandro Lozano", "ranking": 16625 }, { "player_name": "Christopher Operi", "ranking": 16626 }, { "player_name": "Glen Kamara", "ranking": 16627 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vítor Carvalho", "ranking": 16629 }, { "player_name": "James Justin", "ranking": 16630 }, { "player_name": "Allahyar Sayyadmanesh", "ranking": 16631 }, { "player_name": "Ricardo Pepi", "ranking": 16632 }, { "player_name": "Qazim Laci", "ranking": 16633 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.22, "expected_assists": 0.78, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 448, "interceptions": 12, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 86.06, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Riyad Mahrez", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Stefan Posch" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.477, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.438, "xg_contribution": 0.221, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Stefan Posch", "role": "RB", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.562 } ], "duel_analysis": "Riyad Mahrez (LW) is evenly matched against Stefan Posch in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.221 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Farès Chaïbi", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 14500000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.574, "defenders": [ "David Alaba" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.434, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.555, "xg_contribution": 0.0997, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Alaba", "role": "LB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.445 } ], "duel_analysis": "Farès Chaïbi (RW) is slightly favored against David Alaba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. Projected xG contribution: 0.100 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Hicham Boudaoui", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 11300000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.538, "defenders": [ "Xaver Schlager", "Nicolas Seiwald" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.593, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.213, "xg_contribution": 0.1278, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Xaver Schlager", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 9500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787 }, { "player": "Nicolas Seiwald", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hicham Boudaoui (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Xaver Schlager and Nicolas Seiwald in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Projected xG contribution: 0.128 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ibrahim Maza", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Konrad Laimer", "Kevin Danso" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.675, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "xg_contribution": 0.1918, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Konrad Laimer", "role": "CB", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766 }, { "player": "Kevin Danso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ibrahim Maza (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Konrad Laimer and Kevin Danso in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€41M vs €25M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.192 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Nabil Bentaleb", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 4900000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.461, "defenders": [ "Xaver Schlager" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.517, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.447, "xg_contribution": 0.0162, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Xaver Schlager", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 9500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.553 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nabil Bentaleb (CDM) is evenly matched against Xaver Schlager in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.016 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Marcel Sabitzer", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 6200000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.477, "defenders": [ "Amine Gouiri" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.718, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "xg_contribution": 0.0709, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Amine Gouiri", "role": "RB", "market_value": 30000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.64 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marcel Sabitzer (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Amine Gouiri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €30M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.071 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Michael Gregoritsch", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 1600000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.42, "defenders": [ "Rayan Aït-Nouri" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "xg_contribution": 0.1176, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rayan Aït-Nouri", "role": "LB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624 } ], "duel_analysis": "Michael Gregoritsch (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Rayan Aït-Nouri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €39M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.118 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Romano Schmid", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 168, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "Nabil Bentaleb", "Rafik Belghali" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.475, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.238, "xg_contribution": 0.0246, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nabil Bentaleb", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.762 }, { "player": "Rafik Belghali", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 7200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.762 } ], "duel_analysis": "Romano Schmid (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Nabil Bentaleb and Rafik Belghali in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. Projected xG contribution: 0.025 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Marko Arnautović", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 192, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.426, "defenders": [ "Ramy Bensebaini", "Aïssa Mandi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.453, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.212, "xg_contribution": 0.5671, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ramy Bensebaini", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.788 }, { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.788 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marko Arnautović (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ramy Bensebaini and Aïssa Mandi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Projected xG contribution: 0.567 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Xaver Schlager", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 9500000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.517, "defenders": [ "Nabil Bentaleb" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.461, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.393, "xg_contribution": 0.0547, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nabil Bentaleb", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.607 } ], "duel_analysis": "Xaver Schlager (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Nabil Bentaleb in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.055 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.555, "away_midfield_power": 0.589, "home_creative_power": 0.49, "away_creative_power": 0.527, "home_defensive_power": 0.489, "away_defensive_power": 0.623, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.485, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Hicham Boudaoui", "Riyad Mahrez", "Nabil Bentaleb", "Rafik Belghali", "Farès Chaïbi" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Romano Schmid", "Xaver Schlager", "Nicolas Seiwald", "Marcel Sabitzer" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.4, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.7, "home_throughball_threat": 2.1, "away_throughball_threat": 2.2, "key_personal_duel": "Farès Chaïbi vs Nicolas Seiwald", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.988, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.006 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.222, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Riyad Mahrez": { "opponents": [ "Stefan Posch", "Marcel Sabitzer" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Farès Chaïbi": { "opponents": [ "David Alaba", "Romano Schmid" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hicham Boudaoui": { "opponents": [ "Xaver Schlager", "Nicolas Seiwald", "Romano Schmid" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ibrahim Maza": { "opponents": [ "Konrad Laimer", "Kevin Danso" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Nabil Bentaleb": { "opponents": [ "Xaver Schlager", "Romano Schmid" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Amine Gouiri": { "opponents": [ "Marcel Sabitzer" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rayan Aït-Nouri": { "opponents": [ "Michael Gregoritsch" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rafik Belghali": { "opponents": [ "Romano Schmid", "Nicolas Seiwald" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ramy Bensebaini": { "opponents": [ "Marko Arnautović" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aïssa Mandi": { "opponents": [ "Marko Arnautović" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luca Zidane": { "opponents": [ "Michael Gregoritsch", "Marko Arnautović" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Stefan Posch": { "opponents": [ "Riyad Mahrez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "David Alaba": { "opponents": [ "Farès Chaïbi" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Xaver Schlager": { "opponents": [ "Hicham Boudaoui", "Nabil Bentaleb" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nicolas Seiwald": { "opponents": [ "Hicham Boudaoui", "Rafik Belghali" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Konrad Laimer": { "opponents": [ "Ibrahim Maza" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kevin Danso": { "opponents": [ "Ibrahim Maza" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marcel Sabitzer": { "opponents": [ "Amine Gouiri", "Riyad Mahrez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Michael Gregoritsch": { "opponents": [ "Rayan Aït-Nouri" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Romano Schmid": { "opponents": [ "Nabil Bentaleb", "Rafik Belghali", "Hicham Boudaoui", "Farès Chaïbi" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marko Arnautović": { "opponents": [ "Ramy Bensebaini", "Aïssa Mandi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alexander Schlager": { "opponents": [ "Amine Gouiri", "Ibrahim Maza" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Farès Chaïbi vs Nicolas Seiwald will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.66, Away: 0.83. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0163, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0213, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0755, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9628, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9695, "home_midfield_factor": 0.988, "away_midfield_factor": 1.006, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.571, "away_avg_quality": 0.5364, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0346, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.2838, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.2781, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.574, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0644, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0518, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0749, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.937, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.222, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.9368, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.2219, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 1.222 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-27T13:34:19Z" }