{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Croatia", "away_team": "Ghana", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260627", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1216, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1216 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1012 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0913 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0791 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0771 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0683, "0-1": 0.1012, "0-2": 0.0771, "0-3": 0.0389, "0-4": 0.0147, "0-5": 0.0044, "0-6": 0.0011, "1-0": 0.0791, "1-1": 0.1216, "1-2": 0.0913, "1-3": 0.046, "1-4": 0.0174, "1-5": 0.0053, "1-6": 0.0013, "2-0": 0.0473, "2-1": 0.0715, "2-2": 0.0541, "2-3": 0.0272, "2-4": 0.0103, "2-5": 0.0031, "2-6": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0187, "3-1": 0.0282, "3-2": 0.0213, "3-3": 0.0108, "3-4": 0.0041, "3-5": 0.0012, "4-0": 0.0055, "4-1": 0.0084, "4-2": 0.0063, "4-3": 0.0032, "4-4": 0.0012, "5-0": 0.0013, "5-1": 0.002, "5-2": 0.0015, "5-3": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2967, "draw": 0.2561, "away_win": 0.4473 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5054, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4946, "btts_yes": 0.5418, "btts_no": 0.4582, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2205, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3061 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 83.52, "MCR": 87.95, "ATR": 88.44, "GK": 87.13 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 82.67, "MCR": 83.13, "ATR": 79.86, "GK": 86.7 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Croatia vs Ghana. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Ante Budimir, Caleb Yirenkyi", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Martin Baturina vs Antoine Semenyo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.82, Away: 1.37. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel." }, "confidence": 0.74, "home_lambda": 1.184, "away_lambda": 1.512 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2967, "draw": 0.2561, "away_win": 0.4473 }, "favorite": "Ghana", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4473, "fair_spread": -0.328, "fair_total": 2.696, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Croatia", "estimate": 1.184, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Ghana", "estimate": 1.512, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5054, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5418, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Croatia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2205, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Ghana", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3061, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ante Budimir (Croatia)", "estimate": 0.5232, "probability": 0.332, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Caleb Yirenkyi (Ghana)", "estimate": 0.8122, "probability": 0.3269, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Josip Stanišić (Croatia)", "estimate": 0.2045, "probability": 0.0767, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jordan Ayew (Ghana)", "estimate": 0.0674, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.696, "expected_total_shots": 21, "expected_total_passes": 667, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.7, "possession_home_pct": 49.4, "possession_away_pct": 50.6, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Ghana", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4473, "script": "Ghana is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.33 goals and fair total 2.70.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Croatia must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Ghana lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Ghana chance creation leans on Caleb Yirenkyi against Luka Modrić in Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Croatia: starters carry the main goal usage through Ante Budimir; bench watchlist: Joško Gvardiol, Luka Vušković, Petar Sučić.", "Ghana: starters carry the main goal usage through Caleb Yirenkyi; bench watchlist: Abdul Fatawu Issahaku, Kamaldeen Sulemana, Kojo Peprah Oppong.", "Assist usage should flow through Ivan Perišić; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Ghana tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.35 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Croatia is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Ghana.", "Croatia wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Croatia": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Ante Budimir": { "player_id": 37318, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 190, "market_value": 2600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5232, "goal_rate": 0.7012, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 89.3524, "minutes": 55, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 9, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 10.5482, "dispossessed": 1.9625, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 3, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 0.4121, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jerome Opoku, Jonas Adjei Adjetey", "opponent_faced": "Jerome Opoku, Jonas Adjei Adjetey", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.332, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0134, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186520, "match_date": "2026-06-23", "home_team": "Panama", "away_team": "Croatia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Croatia", "opponent": "Panama", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8001, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14083723, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0194, "expected_assists": 0.1265, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083696, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.374, "expected_assists": 0.0587, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083634, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.3121, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "total_shots": 9, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 5, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 7357, "combined_rank_score": 420.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 398.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.92, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 443.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC 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"expected_goals": 0.03, "rating": 86.7175, "minutes": 49, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 19, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 4.4688, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.9931, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.9236, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.5, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Thomas Partey", "opponent_faced": "Thomas Partey", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1617, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2344, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186520, "match_date": "2026-06-23", "home_team": "Panama", "away_team": "Croatia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Croatia", "opponent": "Panama", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186504, "match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "Croatia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Croatia", "opponent": "England", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0182, "expected_assists": 0.4195, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13980080, "match_date": "2026-05-22", "home_team": "Fiorentina", "away_team": "Atalanta", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atalanta", "opponent": "Fiorentina", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6005, "expected_assists": 0.0788, "total_shots": 6, "shots_off_target": 5, "total_pass": 74, "accurate_pass": 68, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Serie A", "league_id": "23", "league_slug": "serie-a", "league_country": "Italy", "season_id": "76457", "season_name": "Serie A 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13980058, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Atalanta", "away_team": "Bologna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atalanta", "opponent": "Bologna", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1219, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Serie A", "league_id": "23", "league_slug": "serie-a", "league_country": "Italy", "season_id": "76457", "season_name": "Serie A 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13980096, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "AC Milan", "away_team": "Atalanta", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atalanta", "opponent": "AC Milan", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1154, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Serie A", "league_id": "23", "league_slug": "serie-a", "league_country": "Italy", "season_id": "76457", "season_name": "Serie A 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631371, "match_date": "2026-03-18", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "Atalanta", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atalanta", "opponent": "FC Bayern München", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.737, "expected_assists": 0.7183, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 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73, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 18077, "combined_rank_score": 2493.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 4882.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7687, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kamaldeen Sulemana", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Santiago Solari", "ranking": 18072 }, { "player_name": "Rúben Vezo", "ranking": 18073 }, { "player_name": "Adama Camara", "ranking": 18074 }, { "player_name": "Eugenio Mena", "ranking": 18075 }, { "player_name": "Patrick Sequeira", "ranking": 18076 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jure Balkovec", "ranking": 18078 }, { "player_name": "Habib Maïga", "ranking": 18079 }, { "player_name": "Mattijs Branderhorst", "ranking": 18080 }, { "player_name": "Iván Ramírez", "ranking": 18081 }, { "player_name": "Jeremy Ebobisse", "ranking": 18082 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.51, "expected_assists": 0.3, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 7, "total_passes": 268, "interceptions": 12, "tackles": 22, "avg_rating": 82.99, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Martin Baturina", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 28000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.702, "defenders": [ "Marvin Senaya" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.571, "xg_contribution": 0.0492, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marvin Senaya", "role": "RB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.429 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martin Baturina (LW) is slightly favored against Marvin Senaya in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€28M vs €3M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.049 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ivan Perišić", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 1200000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.415, "defenders": [ "Gideon Mensah" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.446, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.506, "xg_contribution": 0.2089, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gideon Mensah", "role": "LB", "market_value": 3700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.494 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ivan Perišić (RW) is slightly favored against Gideon Mensah in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. Projected xG contribution: 0.209 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Mario Pašalić", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 6200000, "attacker_height": 189, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.477, "defenders": [ "Thomas Partey" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.424, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.5, "xg_contribution": 0.033, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Thomas Partey", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.5 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mario Pašalić (CAM) is evenly matched against Thomas Partey in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Projected xG contribution: 0.033 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ante Budimir", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.432, "defenders": [ "Jerome Opoku", "Jonas Adjei Adjetey" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.473, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.5163, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jerome Opoku", "role": "CB", "market_value": 5400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jonas Adjei Adjetey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ante Budimir (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jerome Opoku and Jonas Adjei Adjetey in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.516 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Luka Modrić", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 3800000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.447, "defenders": [ "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.527, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.328, "xg_contribution": 0.0114, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.672 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luka Modrić (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Caleb Yirenkyi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. Projected xG contribution: 0.011 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jordan Ayew", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 1100000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.414, "defenders": [ "Andrej Kramarić" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.434, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.491, "xg_contribution": 0.2045, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrej Kramarić", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.509 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jordan Ayew (LW) is evenly matched against Andrej Kramarić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.204 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Iñaki Williams", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Josip Stanišić" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.352, "xg_contribution": 0.1132, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Josip Stanišić", "role": "LB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.648 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iñaki Williams (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Josip Stanišić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €39M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.113 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Kwasi Sibo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.419, "defenders": [ "Duje Ćaleta-Car", "Josip Šutalo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.497, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1946, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Duje Ćaleta-Car", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Josip Šutalo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 13100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kwasi Sibo (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Duje Ćaleta-Car and Josip Šutalo in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.195 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Thomas Partey", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.424, "defenders": [ "Luka Modrić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.447, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.457, "xg_contribution": 0.0533, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 1, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luka Modrić", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.543 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thomas Partey (CDM) is evenly matched against Luka Modrić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.053 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 10400000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.527, "defenders": [ "Luka Modrić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.447, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.522, "xg_contribution": 0.8024, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luka Modrić", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.478 } ], "duel_analysis": "Caleb Yirenkyi (CM) is slightly favored against Luka Modrić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. Projected xG contribution: 0.802 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.562, "away_midfield_power": 0.599, "home_creative_power": 0.489, "away_creative_power": 0.509, "home_defensive_power": 0.473, "away_defensive_power": 0.524, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.484, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Mario Pašalić", "Martin Baturina", "Luka Modrić", "Ivan Perišić", "Mateo Kovačić" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Caleb Yirenkyi", "Kwasi Sibo", "Thomas Partey", "Iñaki Williams", "Antoine Semenyo" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.4, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.6, "home_throughball_threat": 2.1, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Martin Baturina vs Antoine Semenyo", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.994, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.006 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.184, "away_lambda": 1.512, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Martin Baturina": { "opponents": [ "Marvin Senaya", "Iñaki Williams" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ivan Perišić": { "opponents": [ "Gideon Mensah", "Kwasi Sibo" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mario Pašalić": { "opponents": [ "Thomas Partey" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ante Budimir": { "opponents": [ "Jerome Opoku", "Jonas Adjei Adjetey" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Luka Modrić": { "opponents": [ "Caleb Yirenkyi", "Thomas Partey" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Andrej Kramarić": { "opponents": [ "Jordan Ayew" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Josip Stanišić": { "opponents": [ "Iñaki Williams" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Duje Ćaleta-Car": { "opponents": [ "Kwasi Sibo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Josip Šutalo": { "opponents": [ "Kwasi Sibo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mateo Kovačić": { "opponents": [ "Antoine Semenyo" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Dominik Livaković": { "opponents": [ "Jordan Ayew", "Antoine Semenyo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Marvin Senaya": { "opponents": [ "Martin Baturina" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gideon Mensah": { "opponents": [ "Ivan Perišić" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Thomas Partey": { "opponents": [ "Mario Pašalić", "Luka Modrić" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jerome Opoku": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jonas Adjei Adjetey": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Caleb Yirenkyi": { "opponents": [ "Luka Modrić" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jordan Ayew": { "opponents": [ "Andrej Kramarić" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iñaki Williams": { "opponents": [ "Josip Stanišić", "Martin Baturina" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kwasi Sibo": { "opponents": [ "Duje Ćaleta-Car", "Josip Šutalo", "Ivan Perišić" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Antoine Semenyo": { "opponents": [ "Mateo Kovačić" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Benjamin Asare": { "opponents": [ "Andrej Kramarić", "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Martin Baturina vs Antoine Semenyo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.82, Away: 1.37. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0255, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0051, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.169, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.102, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9943, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9694, "home_midfield_factor": 0.994, "away_midfield_factor": 1.006, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.5196, "away_avg_quality": 0.4991, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0206, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.1304, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.1609, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.6019, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0177, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.053, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0256, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.184, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.512, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.184, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.5116, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.184, "final_away_lambda": 1.512 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-27T13:33:31Z" }