{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Colombia", "away_team": "Portugal", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260627", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-2", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1056, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.1056 }, { "score": "0-3", "probability": 0.1041 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.081 }, { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.0799 }, { "score": "0-4", "probability": 0.077 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0241, "0-1": 0.0714, "0-2": 0.1056, "0-3": 0.1041, "0-4": 0.077, "0-5": 0.0456, "0-6": 0.0225, "0-7": 0.0095, "0-8": 0.0035, "0-9": 0.0012, "1-0": 0.0185, "1-1": 0.0548, "1-2": 0.081, "1-3": 0.0799, "1-4": 0.0591, "1-5": 0.0349, "1-6": 0.0172, "1-7": 0.0073, "1-8": 0.0027, "1-9": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.0071, "2-1": 0.021, "2-2": 0.0311, "2-3": 0.0306, "2-4": 0.0226, "2-5": 0.0134, "2-6": 0.0066, "2-7": 0.0028, "2-8": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0018, "3-1": 0.0054, "3-2": 0.0079, "3-3": 0.0078, "3-4": 0.0058, "3-5": 0.0034, "3-6": 0.0017, "3-7": 0.0007, "4-1": 0.001, "4-2": 0.0015, "4-3": 0.0015, "4-4": 0.0011, "4-5": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.0671, "draw": 0.119, "away_win": 0.8139 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.7185, "under_2_5_goals": 0.2815, "btts_yes": 0.5078, "btts_no": 0.4922, "home_clean_sheet": 0.052, "away_clean_sheet": 0.4644 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 85.7, "MCR": 86.81, "ATR": 83.8, "GK": 88.63 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 90.44, "MCR": 92.93, "ATR": 89.15, "GK": 91.12 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Colombia vs Portugal. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Cristiano Ronaldo (2)", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Luis Díaz vs João Neves). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 1.79. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.88, "home_lambda": 0.767, "away_lambda": 2.958 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.0671, "draw": 0.119, "away_win": 0.8139 }, "favorite": "Portugal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8139, "fair_spread": -2.191, "fair_total": 3.725, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Colombia", "estimate": 0.767, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Portugal", "estimate": 2.958, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.7185, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5078, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Colombia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.052, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Portugal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4644, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Luis Díaz (Colombia)", "estimate": 0.1595, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal)", "estimate": 1.5658, "probability": 0.7313, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Luis Díaz (Colombia)", "estimate": 0.2904, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Bruno Fernandes (Portugal)", "estimate": 0.5095, "probability": 0.3401, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.725, "expected_total_shots": 30, "expected_total_passes": 1156, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.2, "possession_home_pct": 47.1, "possession_away_pct": 52.9, "notes": "Portugal projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Portugal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8139, "script": "Portugal is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -2.19 goals and fair total 3.73.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 15 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Colombia must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Portugal lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Portugal chance creation leans on Cristiano Ronaldo against Johan Mojica in Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle; Portugal projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Colombia: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Jhon Durán, Richard Ríos, Cucho Hernández.", "Portugal: starters carry the main goal usage through Cristiano Ronaldo (2); bench watchlist: Rafael Leão, Matheus Nunes, Francisco Trincão.", "Assist usage should flow through Bruno Fernandes; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Portugal tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 15 total first-half shots, and 1.86 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Colombia is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Portugal.", "Colombia wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Colombia": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Luis Díaz": { "player_id": 883537, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 178, "market_value": 76000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.2904, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1595, "rating": 92.6693, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 29, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 66, "possession_lost": 13.9736, "dispossessed": 2.5275, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 1.034, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.501, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 147, "progressive_carries": 6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.456, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "João Neves", "opponent_faced": "João Neves", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186713, "match_date": "2026-06-24", "home_team": "Colombia", "away_team": "DR Congo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Colombia", "opponent": "DR Congo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2908, "expected_assists": 0.0969, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186722, "match_date": "2026-06-18", "home_team": "Uzbekistan", "away_team": "Colombia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Colombia", "opponent": "Uzbekistan", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 8.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3605, "expected_assists": 0.6216, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14065556, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "1. FC Köln", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "1. FC Köln", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.6311, "expected_assists": 0.6244, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 44, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065251, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "VfL Wolfsburg", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "VfL Wolfsburg", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1463, "expected_assists": 0.0682, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632634, "match_date": "2026-05-06", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1912, "expected_assists": 0.7141, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065232, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "1. FC Heidenheim", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "1. FC Heidenheim", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1545, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632632, "match_date": "2026-04-28", "home_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1943, "expected_assists": 0.7257, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632088, "match_date": "2026-04-15", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2002, "expected_assists": 0.1986, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 46, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632084, "match_date": "2026-04-07", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7823, "expected_assists": 0.0634, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631371, "match_date": "2026-03-18", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "Atalanta", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "Atalanta", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.9556, "expected_assists": 0.2108, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 57, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 132, "combined_rank_score": 113.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 95.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.45, "sofascore_appearances": 12.0, "fifa_rank": 132.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.6693, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Luis Díaz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Denzel Dumfries", "ranking": 127 }, { "player_name": "Tasos Bakasetas", "ranking": 128 }, { "player_name": "Hannibal Mejbri", "ranking": 129 }, { "player_name": "Sang-Min Koo", "ranking": 130 }, { "player_name": "Kacper Potulski", "ranking": 131 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Federico Dimarco", "ranking": 133 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Mac Allister", "ranking": 134 }, { "player_name": "Bremer", "ranking": 135 }, { "player_name": "Cody Gakpo", "ranking": 136 }, { "player_name": "Samuel Lino", "ranking": 137 } ] } } }, "Luis Javier Suárez": { "player_id": 914213, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 185, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0394, "goal_rate": 0.0018, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0536, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 83.7979, "minutes": 74, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 33, "possession_lost": 9.4289, "dispossessed": 1.7673, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5714, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 30, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.417, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Nuno Mendes", "opponent_faced": "Nuno Mendes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186713, "match_date": "2026-06-24", "home_team": "Colombia", "away_team": "DR Congo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Colombia", "opponent": "DR Congo", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0336, "expected_assists": 0.0037, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186722, "match_date": "2026-06-18", "home_team": "Uzbekistan", "away_team": "Colombia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Colombia", "opponent": 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true, "league_name": "Serie A", "league_id": "23", "league_slug": "serie-a", "league_country": "Italy", "season_id": "76457", "season_name": "Serie A 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 182, "combined_rank_score": 136.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 217.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.1143, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Rafael Leão", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Tijjani Reijnders", "ranking": 177 }, { "player_name": "De Gea", "ranking": 178 }, { "player_name": "Mikel Merino", "ranking": 179 }, { "player_name": "Giovino Flamarion", "ranking": 180 }, { "player_name": "Diogo Costa", "ranking": 181 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Heung Min Son", "ranking": 183 }, { "player_name": "Joo-Hoon Song", "ranking": 184 }, { "player_name": "Adenis Shala", "ranking": 185 }, { "player_name": "Diyor Khalmatov", "ranking": 186 }, { "player_name": "Andy Robertson", "ranking": 187 } ] } } }, "Gonçalo Ramos": { "player_id": 934510, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 185, "market_value": 32000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0006, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 86.6108, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 0.8647, "dispossessed": 1.0696, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186709, "match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "Portugal", "away_team": "DR Congo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Portugal", "opponent": "DR Congo", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14061910, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Paris FC", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "Paris FC", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 5.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0201, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15889331, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "RC Lens", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "RC Lens", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14064510, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "away_team": "Stade Brestois", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "Stade Brestois", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4716, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631367, "match_date": "2026-03-17", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0142, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 14652, "combined_rank_score": 674.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 648.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.71, "sofascore_appearances": 11.0, "fifa_rank": 700.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6108, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gonçalo Ramos", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Clément Lenglet", "ranking": 14647 }, { "player_name": "Sam Beukema", "ranking": 14648 }, { "player_name": "Jonny Otto", "ranking": 14649 }, { "player_name": "Bu-Seong Jang", "ranking": 14650 }, { "player_name": "Mark Flekken", "ranking": 14651 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nathaniel Blair", "ranking": 14653 }, { "player_name": "Loïc Badé", "ranking": 14654 }, { "player_name": "Mert Günok", "ranking": 14655 }, { "player_name": "Maissa Fall", "ranking": 14656 }, { "player_name": "Muzaffar Olimjonov", "ranking": 14657 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.96, "expected_assists": 1.48, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 11, "total_passes": 647, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 91.17, "possession_estimated_pct": 52.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Luis Javier Suárez", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Nuno Mendes" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.417, "xg_contribution": 0.0749, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nuno Mendes", "role": "RB", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.583 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luis Javier Suárez (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Nuno Mendes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €77M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.075 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "James Rodríguez", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.419, "defenders": [ "João Cancelo" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.433, "xg_contribution": 0.0631, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "João Cancelo", "role": "LB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.567 } ], "duel_analysis": "James Rodríguez (RW) is evenly matched against João Cancelo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jefferson Lerma", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5500000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.468, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga", "Rúben Dias" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.761, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0824, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Rúben Dias", "role": "CB", "market_value": 60000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jefferson Lerma (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Renato Veiga and Rúben Dias in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €42M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.082 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Daniel Muñoz", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "João Neves" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.899, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.348, "xg_contribution": 0.2475, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "João Neves", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 148000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.652 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daniel Muñoz (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against João Neves in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €148M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.248 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Luis Díaz", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 76000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.878, "defenders": [ "João Neves" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.899, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.456, "xg_contribution": 0.3188, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "João Neves", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 148000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.544 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luis Díaz (CM) is evenly matched against João Neves in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. The quality gap is significant (€76M vs €148M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.319 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Bruno Fernandes", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Gustavo Puerta" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.531, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.603, "xg_contribution": 0.1168, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gustavo Puerta", "role": "RB", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.397 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bruno Fernandes (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Gustavo Puerta in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €11M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.117 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Cristiano Ronaldo", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 10400000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.527, "defenders": [ "Johan Mojica" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.417, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.537, "xg_contribution": 1.1002, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Johan Mojica", "role": "LB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.463 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cristiano Ronaldo (RW) is slightly favored against Johan Mojica in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. Projected xG contribution: 1.100 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Pedro Neto", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Daniel Muñoz" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.501, "xg_contribution": 0.2818, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Daniel Muñoz", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.499 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedro Neto (CAM) is slightly favored against Daniel Muñoz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €23M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.282 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "João Félix", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Jhon Lucumí", "Davinson Sánchez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.627, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.21, "xg_contribution": 0.2534, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jhon Lucumí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.79 }, { "player": "Davinson Sánchez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.79 } ], "duel_analysis": "João Félix (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jhon Lucumí and Davinson Sánchez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Projected xG contribution: 0.253 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "João Neves", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 148000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Luis Díaz" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.878, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "xg_contribution": 0.0352, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luis Díaz", "role": "CM", "market_value": 76000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.606 } ], "duel_analysis": "João Neves (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Luis Díaz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€148M vs €76M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.666, "away_midfield_power": 0.869, "home_creative_power": 0.63, "away_creative_power": 0.836, "home_defensive_power": 0.425, "away_defensive_power": 0.764, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.434, "home_midfield_count": 6, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Luis Díaz", "Jhon Arias", "Jefferson Lerma", "James Rodríguez", "Gustavo Puerta", "Daniel Muñoz" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "João Neves", "Vitinha", "Pedro Neto", "Bruno Fernandes" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 47.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 52.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.5, "home_throughball_threat": 2.5, "away_throughball_threat": 3.1, "key_personal_duel": "Luis Díaz vs João Neves", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.979, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.037 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.767, "away_lambda": 2.958, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "CDM vs CDM" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Luis Javier Suárez": { "opponents": [ "Nuno Mendes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "James Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "João Cancelo", "Pedro Neto" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jefferson Lerma": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga", "Rúben Dias", "João Neves" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Daniel Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "João Neves", "Pedro Neto" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Luis Díaz": { "opponents": [ "João Neves" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gustavo Puerta": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Johan Mojica": { "opponents": [ "Cristiano Ronaldo" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jhon Lucumí": { "opponents": [ "João Félix" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Davinson Sánchez": { "opponents": [ "João Félix" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jhon Arias": { "opponents": [ "Vitinha" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Camilo Vargas": { "opponents": [ "Cristiano Ronaldo", "João Félix" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Nuno Mendes": { "opponents": [ "Luis Javier Suárez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "João Cancelo": { "opponents": [ "James Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Renato Veiga": { "opponents": [ "Jefferson Lerma" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rúben Dias": { "opponents": [ "Jefferson Lerma" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "João Neves": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Muñoz", "Luis Díaz", "Jefferson Lerma" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bruno Fernandes": { "opponents": [ "Gustavo Puerta" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Cristiano Ronaldo": { "opponents": [ "Johan Mojica" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pedro Neto": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Muñoz", "James Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "João Félix": { "opponents": [ "Jhon Lucumí", "Davinson Sánchez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Vitinha": { "opponents": [ "Jhon Arias" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Diogo Costa": { "opponents": [ "Luis Javier Suárez", "Luis Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Luis Díaz vs João Neves). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 1.79. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8657, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0236, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0757, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1596, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8992, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9805, "home_midfield_factor": 0.979, "away_midfield_factor": 1.037, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5913, "away_avg_quality": 0.7505, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1592, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.0212, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.0124, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.8946, "elite_count_gap": -4, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2311, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.5084, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.3235, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1171, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0984, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.7671, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.9584, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 0.767, "final_away_lambda": 2.958 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-27T13:33:49Z" }