{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Côte d'Ivoire", "away_team": "2I", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260630", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-0", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1399, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1399 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1266 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.1029 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0909 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0669 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0578, "0-1": 0.0371, "0-2": 0.0121, "0-3": 0.0026, "1-0": 0.1266, "1-1": 0.0828, "1-2": 0.0268, "1-3": 0.0058, "1-4": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.1399, "2-1": 0.0909, "2-2": 0.0296, "2-3": 0.0064, "2-4": 0.001, "3-0": 0.1029, "3-1": 0.0669, "3-2": 0.0217, "3-3": 0.0047, "3-4": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.0567, "4-1": 0.0369, "4-2": 0.012, "4-3": 0.0026, "5-0": 0.025, "5-1": 0.0163, "5-2": 0.0053, "5-3": 0.0011, "6-0": 0.0092, "6-1": 0.006, "6-2": 0.0019, "7-0": 0.0029, "7-1": 0.0019, "7-2": 0.0006, "8-0": 0.0008, "8-1": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.7302, "draw": 0.1753, "away_win": 0.0946 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5437, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4563, "btts_yes": 0.4256, "btts_no": 0.5744, "home_clean_sheet": 0.522, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1102 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 87.41, "MCR": 84.56, "ATR": 84.18, "GK": 82.59 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 6.9, "GK": 6.8 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Côte d'Ivoire vs 2I. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Bazoumana Touré, Yan Diomande", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Amad Diallo vs 2I M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 0.53. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.82, "home_lambda": 2.206, "away_lambda": 0.65 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.7302, "draw": 0.1753, "away_win": 0.0946 }, "favorite": "Côte d'Ivoire", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7302, "fair_spread": 1.556, "fair_total": 2.856, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Côte d'Ivoire", "estimate": 2.206, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "2I", "estimate": 0.65, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5437, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4256, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Côte d'Ivoire", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.522, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "2I", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1102, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Bazoumana Touré (Côte d'Ivoire)", "estimate": 0.3971, "probability": 0.3899, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "2I F1 (2I)", "estimate": 0.1394, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Amad Diallo (Côte d'Ivoire)", "estimate": 0.3734, "probability": 0.445, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "2I M1 (2I)", "estimate": 0.0968, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.856, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 822, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.1, "possession_home_pct": 53.7, "possession_away_pct": 46.3, "notes": "Côte d'Ivoire projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Côte d'Ivoire", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7302, "script": "Côte d'Ivoire is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.56 goals and fair total 2.86.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; 2I must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Côte d'Ivoire lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Côte d'Ivoire chance creation leans on Amad Diallo against 2I M2 in Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest; Côte d'Ivoire projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Côte d'Ivoire: starters carry the main goal usage through Bazoumana Touré, Yan Diomande; bench watchlist: Christ Inao Oulaï, Guéla Doué, Elye Wahi.", "2I: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: bench impact is limited by available projected substitutes.", "Assist usage should flow through Amad Diallo; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Côte d'Ivoire tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.43 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If 2I is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Côte d'Ivoire.", "2I wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Côte d'Ivoire": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Yahia Fofana": { "player_id": 877977, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 75, "height": 194, "market_value": 5200000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.3036, "rating": 82.5904, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 17, "total_long_balls": 17, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 38, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.9894, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 11.2791, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "expected_saves": 1.11, "high_pressure_saves": 0.42, "shots_faced": 2.4, "opponent_faced": "2I F1, 2I F2", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 15186908, "match_date": "2026-06-25 20:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": 16, "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": 58210, "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026", "home_team": "Curaçao", "away_team": "Côte d'Ivoire", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Côte d'Ivoire", "opponent": "Curaçao", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 15186905, "match_date": "2026-06-20", "home_team": "Germany", "away_team": "Côte d'Ivoire", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Côte d'Ivoire", "opponent": "Germany", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 22, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.3557 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186904, "match_date": "2026-06-14", "home_team": "Côte 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"total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 58, "possession_lost": 6.2, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.012, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 4, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.508, "opponent_faced": "Simon Adingra", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "2I D4", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "2I M1": { "player_id": 4380421, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0968, "expected_goals": 0.0775, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 40, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 6, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 65, "possession_lost": 8.1, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.06, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.054, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 75, "progressive_carries": 6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.209, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ousmane Diomande", "opponent_faced": "Ousmane Diomande", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "2I M1", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "2I M2": { "player_id": 4380422, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0968, "expected_goals": 0.0775, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 40, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 6, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 65, "possession_lost": 8.1, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.06, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.054, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 75, "progressive_carries": 6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.276, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Amad Diallo", "opponent_faced": "Amad Diallo", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "2I M2", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "2I M3": { "player_id": 4380423, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0968, "expected_goals": 0.0775, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 40, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 6, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 65, "possession_lost": 8.1, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.06, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.054, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 75, "progressive_carries": 6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.276, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Amad Diallo", "opponent_faced": "Amad Diallo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "2I M3", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "2I M4": { "player_id": 4380424, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0968, "expected_goals": 0.0775, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 40, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 6, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 65, "possession_lost": 8.1, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.06, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.054, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 75, "progressive_carries": 6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.209, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "RM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ousmane Diomande", "opponent_faced": "Ousmane Diomande", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "2I M4", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "2I F1": { "player_id": 4380425, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1394, "goal_rate": 0.14, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0622, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 8.1, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.171, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 47, "progressive_carries": 5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ousmane Diomande, Evan Ndicka", "opponent_faced": "Ousmane Diomande, Evan Ndicka", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "2I F1", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "2I F2": { "player_id": 4380426, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1394, "goal_rate": 0.14, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0622, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 8.1, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.171, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 47, "progressive_carries": 5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ousmane Diomande, Evan Ndicka", "opponent_faced": "Ousmane Diomande, Evan Ndicka", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "2I F2", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } } }, "bench_players": {}, "substitutes": {}, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.65, "expected_assists": 0.65, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 447, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 18, "avg_rating": 6.85, "possession_estimated_pct": 46.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ange-Yoan Bonny", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 34000000, "attacker_height": 189, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.746, "defenders": [ "2I D2", "2I D3" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.375, "xg_contribution": 0.0018, "shots_in_zone": 2.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "2I D2", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.625 }, { "player": "2I D3", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.625 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ange-Yoan Bonny (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against 2I D2 and 2I D3 in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€34M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.002 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Yan Diomande", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 82000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.884, "defenders": [ "2I D2", "2I M2" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.481, "xg_contribution": 0.198, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "2I D2", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.519 }, { "player": "2I M2", "role": "CM", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.519 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yan Diomande (SS) is evenly matched against 2I D2 and 2I M2 in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 48%. The quality gap is significant (€82M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.198 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Simon Adingra", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "2I D4" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.492, "xg_contribution": 0.145, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "2I D4", "role": "RB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.508 } ], "duel_analysis": "Simon Adingra (LWB) is evenly matched against 2I D4 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.145 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ibrahim Sangaré", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "2I D1" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.544, "xg_contribution": 0.0716, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "2I D1", "role": "LB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.456 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ibrahim Sangaré (RWB) is slightly favored against 2I D1 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.072 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Amad Diallo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 49000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.821, "defenders": [ "2I M2" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.564, "xg_contribution": 0.2108, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "2I M2", "role": "CM", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.436 } ], "duel_analysis": "Amad Diallo (CM) is slightly favored against 2I M2 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€49M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.211 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "2I M1", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Ousmane Diomande" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.209, "xg_contribution": 0.0557, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ousmane Diomande", "role": "CB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.791 } ], "duel_analysis": "2I M1 (LM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ousmane Diomande in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.056 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "2I M2", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Amad Diallo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.821, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.276, "xg_contribution": 0.0636, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Amad Diallo", "role": "CM", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.724 } ], "duel_analysis": "2I M2 (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Amad Diallo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €49M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.064 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "2I M3", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Amad Diallo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.821, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.276, "xg_contribution": 0.0636, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Amad Diallo", "role": "CM", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.724 } ], "duel_analysis": "2I M3 (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Amad Diallo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €49M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.064 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "2I M4", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Ousmane Diomande" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "RM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.209, "xg_contribution": 0.0557, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ousmane Diomande", "role": "CB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.791 } ], "duel_analysis": "2I M4 (RM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ousmane Diomande in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.056 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "2I F1", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Ousmane Diomande", "Evan Ndicka" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.781, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1457, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ousmane Diomande", "role": "CB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Evan Ndicka", "role": "CB", "market_value": 34000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "2I F1 (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ousmane Diomande and Evan Ndicka in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €41M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "2I F2", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Ousmane Diomande", "Evan Ndicka" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.781, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1457, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ousmane Diomande", "role": "CB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Evan Ndicka", "role": "CB", "market_value": 34000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "2I F2 (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ousmane Diomande and Evan Ndicka in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €41M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.753, "away_midfield_power": 0.462, "home_creative_power": 0.72, "away_creative_power": 0.503, "home_defensive_power": 0.658, "away_defensive_power": 0.393, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.619, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Amad Diallo", "Bazoumana Touré", "Simon Adingra", "Ibrahim Sangaré" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "2I M1", "2I M2", "2I M3", "2I M4" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 53.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 46.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "home_throughball_threat": 2.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Amad Diallo vs 2I M1", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.047, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.964 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.04, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.206, "away_lambda": 0.65, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Ange-Yoan Bonny": { "opponents": [ "2I D2", "2I D3" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yan Diomande": { "opponents": [ "2I D2", "2I M2" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Simon Adingra": { "opponents": [ "2I D4", "2I M1" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ibrahim Sangaré": { "opponents": [ "2I D1", "2I M4" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Amad Diallo": { "opponents": [ "2I M2", "2I M3" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ousmane Diomande": { "opponents": [ "2I M1", "2I M4", "2I F1", "2I F2" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Evan Ndicka": { "opponents": [ "2I F1", "2I F2" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Bazoumana Touré": { "opponents": [ "2I M3" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Yahia Fofana": { "opponents": [ "2I F1", "2I F2" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Wilfried Singo": { "opponents": [ "2I F1" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Evann Guessand": { "opponents": [ "2I D1", "2I D3" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "2I D2": { "opponents": [ "Ange-Yoan Bonny", "Yan Diomande" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "2I D3": { "opponents": [ "Ange-Yoan Bonny" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "2I M2": { "opponents": [ "Yan Diomande", "Amad Diallo" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "2I D4": { "opponents": [ "Simon Adingra" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "2I D1": { "opponents": [ "Ibrahim Sangaré" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "2I M1": { "opponents": [ "Ousmane Diomande", "Simon Adingra" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "2I M3": { "opponents": [ "Amad Diallo", "Bazoumana Touré" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "2I M4": { "opponents": [ "Ousmane Diomande", "Ibrahim Sangaré" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "2I F1": { "opponents": [ "Ousmane Diomande", "Evan Ndicka" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "2I F2": { "opponents": [ "Ousmane Diomande", "Evan Ndicka" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "2I G1": { "opponents": [ "Evann Guessand", "Yan Diomande" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Amad Diallo vs 2I M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 0.53. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0005, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9995, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9913, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9082, "home_midfield_factor": 1.047, "away_midfield_factor": 0.964, "stage_discount": 0.92, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7457, "away_avg_quality": 0.4374, "avg_quality_gap": 0.3082, "squad_value_gap_log": 5.9428, "top5_value_gap_log": 5.5134, "attack_value_gap_log": 5.6204, "elite_count_gap": 3, "combined_quality_gap": 0.7425, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.95, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.6, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0723, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 0, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.7425, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1906, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9357, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.853, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.65, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.8533, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.598, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 2.206, "final_away_lambda": 0.65 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-28T17:48:43Z" }