{ "match_info": { "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Sweden", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260630", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-1-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1093, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "France", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2302, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.582, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.418, "home_advance_probability": 0.6992, "away_advance_probability": 0.3008, "projected_winner": "France", "projected_winner_probability": 0.6992, "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1093 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1083 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0989 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0987 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0606 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0606, "0-1": 0.0592, "0-2": 0.0298, "0-3": 0.0099, "0-4": 0.0025, "1-0": 0.1083, "1-1": 0.1093, "1-2": 0.0542, "1-3": 0.018, "1-4": 0.0045, "1-5": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.0989, "2-1": 0.0987, "2-2": 0.0492, "2-3": 0.0164, "2-4": 0.0041, "2-5": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0599, "3-1": 0.0598, "3-2": 0.0298, "3-3": 0.0099, "3-4": 0.0025, "4-0": 0.0272, "4-1": 0.0271, "4-2": 0.0135, "4-3": 0.0045, "4-4": 0.0011, "5-0": 0.0099, "5-1": 0.0099, "5-2": 0.0049, "5-3": 0.0016, "6-0": 0.003, "6-1": 0.003, "6-2": 0.0015, "7-0": 0.0008, "7-1": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5652, "draw": 0.2302, "away_win": 0.2046 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5338, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4662, "btts_yes": 0.5292, "btts_no": 0.4708, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3688, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1626 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 91.22, "MCR": 92.17, "ATR": 96.29, "GK": 94.14 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 81.67, "MCR": 81.16, "ATR": 89.2, "GK": 77.69 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for France vs Sweden. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Kylian Mbappé, Yasin Ayari", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-1-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Michael Olise vs Lucas Bergvall will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.82, Away: 0.48. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.77, "home_lambda": 1.912, "away_lambda": 1.05 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5652, "draw": 0.2302, "away_win": 0.2046 }, "favorite": "France", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5652, "fair_spread": 0.862, "fair_total": 2.962, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "France", "estimate": 1.912, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sweden", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5338, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5292, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "France", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3688, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sweden", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1626, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kylian Mbappé (France)", "estimate": 0.643, "probability": 0.2822, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Viktor Gyökeres (Sweden)", "estimate": 0.2857, "probability": 0.1686, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Michael Olise (France)", "estimate": 0.4611, "probability": 0.3355, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Yasin Ayari (Sweden)", "estimate": 0.0956, "probability": 0.2956, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.962, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 837, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.9, "possession_home_pct": 52.6, "possession_away_pct": 47.4, "notes": "France projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "France", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5652, "script": "France is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +0.86 goals and fair total 2.96.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Sweden must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A France lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; France projects as the advancing side at 69.9% overall advancement probability with 23.0% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "France chance creation leans on Kylian Mbappé against Gabriel Gudmundsson, Victor Lindelöf in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; France projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "France: starters carry the main goal usage through Kylian Mbappé; bench watchlist: Rayan Cherki, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Bradley Barcola.", "Sweden: starters carry the main goal usage through Yasin Ayari; bench watchlist: Hugo Larsson, Daniel Svensson, Roony Bardghji.", "Assist usage should flow through Michael Olise, Yasin Ayari; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: France tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.48 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Sweden is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; France projects as the advancing side at 69.9% overall advancement probability with 23.0% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for France.", "Sweden wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "France": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Kylian Mbappé": { "player_id": 826643, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 191000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.643, "goal_rate": 0.021, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1959, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 99.0357, "minutes": 83, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 25, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 10.3262, "dispossessed": 1.96, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 3, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 0.9632, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 95, "progressive_carries": 5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.341, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gabriel Gudmundsson, Victor Lindelöf", "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson, Victor Lindelöf", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2822, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1143, "fifa_overall": 91.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186537, "match_date": "2026-06-26", "home_team": "Norway", "away_team": "France", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Norway", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.2892, "expected_assists": 0.5773, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186769, "match_date": "2026-06-22", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Iraq", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Iraq", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 9.2, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.226, "expected_assists": 0.114, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186501, "match_date": "2026-06-16", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Senegal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Senegal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7638, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14083731, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2598, "expected_assists": 0.0681, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5088, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "total_shots": 5, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083649, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1734, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632088, "match_date": "2026-04-15", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "FC Bayern München", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2395, "expected_assists": 0.3297, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632084, "match_date": "2026-04-07", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "FC Bayern München", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2688, "expected_assists": 0.0745, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631365, "match_date": "2026-03-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0631, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4, "combined_rank_score": 10.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 18.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.0545, "sofascore_appearances": 11.0, "fifa_rank": 3.0, "fifa_overall": 91.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 8.0357, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 1 }, { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 2 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Gutiérrez", "ranking": 3 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 }, { "player_name": "Nico López", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Andy Vidal", "ranking": 8 }, { "player_name": "James Rodríguez", "ranking": 9 } ] } } }, "Michael Olise": { "player_id": 978838, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 184, "market_value": 144000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.4611, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1321, "rating": 94.0919, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 48, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 7, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 48, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 39, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 83, "possession_lost": 19.3385, "dispossessed": 2.7994, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 1.3437, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.4591, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 169, "progressive_carries": 7, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.548, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1738, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.3355, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186537, "match_date": "2026-06-26", "home_team": "Norway", "away_team": "France", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Norway", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5118, "expected_assists": 0.0482, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 37, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186769, "match_date": "2026-06-22", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Iraq", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Iraq", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 8.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.1588, "expected_assists": 0.425, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186501, "match_date": "2026-06-16", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Senegal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Senegal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.363, "expected_assists": 0.9475, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 51, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", 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"total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 1.8381, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.74, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.589, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186972, "match_date": "2026-06-25", "home_team": "Japan", "away_team": "Sweden", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sweden", "opponent": "Japan", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.008, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186951, "match_date": "2026-06-15", "home_team": "Sweden", "away_team": "Tunisia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sweden", "opponent": "Tunisia", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14065561, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "SV Werder Bremen", "away_team": "Borussia Dortmund", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Borussia Dortmund", "opponent": "SV Werder Bremen", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3349, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065243, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Borussia M'gladbach", "away_team": "Borussia Dortmund", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Borussia Dortmund", "opponent": "Borussia M'gladbach", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065228, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Borussia Dortmund", "away_team": "SC Freiburg", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Borussia Dortmund", "opponent": "SC Freiburg", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15129806, "match_date": "2026-03-31", "home_team": "Sweden", "away_team": "Poland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sweden", "opponent": "Poland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15126915, "match_date": "2026-03-26", "home_team": "Ukraine", "away_team": "Sweden", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sweden", "opponent": "Ukraine", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13233688, "match_date": "2025-11-18", "home_team": "Sweden", "away_team": "Slovenia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sweden", "opponent": "Slovenia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 15973, "combined_rank_score": 934.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 532.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 1337.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.382, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Daniel Svensson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ruslan Lisakovich", "ranking": 15968 }, { "player_name": "Anthony Lopes", "ranking": 15969 }, { "player_name": "Dirk Carlson", "ranking": 15970 }, { "player_name": "Assane Diao", "ranking": 15971 }, { "player_name": "Nahitan Nández", "ranking": 15972 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Estiven Villalba", "ranking": 15974 }, { "player_name": "Diego López", "ranking": 15975 }, { "player_name": "Ibrokhim Ganikhonov", "ranking": 15976 }, { "player_name": "Tiago Tomás", "ranking": 15977 }, { "player_name": "Luis Angel Palacios", "ranking": 15978 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.05, "expected_assists": 0.51, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 293, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 11, "avg_rating": 83.91, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Michael Olise", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 144000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.548, "xg_contribution": 0.1206, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.452 } ], "duel_analysis": "Michael Olise (LW) is slightly favored against Gabriel Gudmundsson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 55%. The quality gap is significant (€144M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.121 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Kylian Mbappé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 191000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "Victor Lindelöf" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.55, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.341, "xg_contribution": 0.4949, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.659 }, { "player": "Victor Lindelöf", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.659 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kylian Mbappé (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Gabriel Gudmundsson and Victor Lindelöf in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€191M vs €13M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.495 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ousmane Dembélé", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 97000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.892, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.521, "xg_contribution": 0.1485, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.479 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ousmane Dembélé (RW) is slightly favored against Gabriel Gudmundsson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€97M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.149 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Désiré Doué", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 124000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.898, "defenders": [ "Yasin Ayari" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.732, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.531, "xg_contribution": 0.0519, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "role": "CM", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.469 } ], "duel_analysis": "Désiré Doué (CAM) is slightly favored against Yasin Ayari in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. The quality gap is significant (€124M vs €32M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.052 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Viktor Gyökeres", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 61000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.855, "defenders": [ "Theo Hernández", "Maxence Lacroix" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.739, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.248, "xg_contribution": 0.1704, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Theo Hernández", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.752 }, { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "role": "CB", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.752 } ], "duel_analysis": "Viktor Gyökeres (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Theo Hernández and Maxence Lacroix in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€61M vs €38M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.170 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Alexander Isak", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 88000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.888, "defenders": [ "Adrien Rabiot", "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.739, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "xg_contribution": 0.0556, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrien Rabiot", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 17300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679 }, { "player": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 73000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alexander Isak (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Adrien Rabiot and Aurélien Tchouaméni in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€88M vs €45M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.056 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Elliot Stroud", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Jules Koundé" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.861, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.242, "xg_contribution": 0.0562, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jules Koundé", "role": "RB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.758 } ], "duel_analysis": "Elliot Stroud (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jules Koundé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €64M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.056 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Alexander Bernhardsson", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Dayot Upamecano" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.863, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.206, "xg_contribution": 0.0505, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dayot Upamecano", "role": "LB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.794 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alexander Bernhardsson (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dayot Upamecano in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €65M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.050 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Yasin Ayari", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Adrien Rabiot" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.604, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.448, "xg_contribution": 0.1434, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrien Rabiot", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 17300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.552 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yasin Ayari (CM) is evenly matched against Adrien Rabiot in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.143 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.793, "away_midfield_power": 0.652, "home_creative_power": 0.864, "away_creative_power": 0.554, "home_defensive_power": 1.006, "away_defensive_power": 0.554, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.549, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Michael Olise", "Adrien Rabiot", "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Elliot Stroud", "Lucas Bergvall", "Yasin Ayari" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.8, "home_throughball_threat": 3.2, "away_throughball_threat": 2.3, "key_personal_duel": "Michael Olise vs Lucas Bergvall", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.026, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.969 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-1-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-1-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.912, "away_lambda": 1.05, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "RW vs CB" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Michael Olise": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "Elliot Stroud" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kylian Mbappé": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "Victor Lindelöf" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ousmane Dembélé": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Désiré Doué": { "opponents": [ "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Theo Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Viktor Gyökeres" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Maxence Lacroix": { "opponents": [ "Viktor Gyökeres" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Adrien Rabiot": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Isak", "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aurélien Tchouaméni": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Isak", "Lucas Bergvall" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jules Koundé": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Stroud" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dayot Upamecano": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Bernhardsson" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mike Maignan": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Elanga", "Alexander Bernhardsson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Gabriel Gudmundsson": { "opponents": [ "Michael Olise", "Kylian Mbappé", "Ousmane Dembélé" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Victor Lindelöf": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Yasin Ayari": { "opponents": [ "Désiré Doué", "Adrien Rabiot" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Viktor Gyökeres": { "opponents": [ "Theo Hernández", "Maxence Lacroix" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alexander Isak": { "opponents": [ "Adrien Rabiot", "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Elliot Stroud": { "opponents": [ "Jules Koundé", "Michael Olise" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alexander Bernhardsson": { "opponents": [ "Dayot Upamecano" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lucas Bergvall": { "opponents": [ "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Jacob Widell Zetterström": { "opponents": [ "Désiré Doué", "Ousmane Dembélé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Gustaf Lagerbielke": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Anthony Elanga": { "opponents": [ "Dayot Upamecano", "Jules Koundé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Michael Olise vs Lucas Bergvall will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.82, Away: 0.48. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0137, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9234, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1296, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9805, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8769, "home_midfield_factor": 1.026, "away_midfield_factor": 0.969, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8269, "away_avg_quality": 0.649, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1779, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.0449, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.9069, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.9016, "elite_count_gap": 6, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2595, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.5709, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.3633, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0226, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0185, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.912, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.668, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.9116, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.6685, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.912, "final_away_lambda": 1.05 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-30T04:35:38Z" }