{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Belgium", "away_team": "3A/3E/3H/3I/3J", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260701", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-0", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1362, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "Belgium", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1746, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.62, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.38, "home_advance_probability": 0.8364, "away_advance_probability": 0.1636, "projected_winner": "Belgium", "projected_winner_probability": 0.8364, "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1362 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1219 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.1012 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0919 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0828 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0552, "0-1": 0.0367, "0-2": 0.0125, "0-3": 0.0028, "1-0": 0.1219, "1-1": 0.0828, "1-2": 0.0278, "1-3": 0.0063, "1-4": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.1362, "2-1": 0.0919, "2-2": 0.031, "2-3": 0.007, "2-4": 0.0012, "3-0": 0.1012, "3-1": 0.0683, "3-2": 0.023, "3-3": 0.0052, "3-4": 0.0009, "4-0": 0.0564, "4-1": 0.038, "4-2": 0.0128, "4-3": 0.0029, "5-0": 0.0251, "5-1": 0.017, "5-2": 0.0057, "5-3": 0.0013, "6-0": 0.0093, "6-1": 0.0063, "6-2": 0.0021, "7-0": 0.003, "7-1": 0.002, "7-2": 0.0007, "8-0": 0.0008, "8-1": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.7282, "draw": 0.1746, "away_win": 0.0972 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5547, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4453, "btts_yes": 0.4381, "btts_no": 0.5619, "home_clean_sheet": 0.5094, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1077 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 84.32, "MCR": 87.51, "ATR": 85.62, "GK": 85.59 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 6.9, "GK": 6.8 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Belgium vs 3A/3E/3H/3I/3J. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Jérémy Doku, Diego Moreira", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Jérémy Doku vs 3A/3E/3H M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.60, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.83, "home_lambda": 2.346, "away_lambda": 0.71 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.7282, "draw": 0.1746, "away_win": 0.0972 }, "favorite": "Belgium", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7282, "fair_spread": 1.636, "fair_total": 3.056, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Belgium", "estimate": 2.346, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "3A/3E/3H/3I/3J", "estimate": 0.71, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5547, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4381, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Belgium", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5094, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "3A/3E/3H/3I/3J", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1077, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Diego Moreira (Belgium)", "estimate": 0.7347, "probability": 0.4264, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "3A/3E/3H F2 (3A/3E/3H/3I/3J)", "estimate": 0.177, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Maxim De Cuyper (Belgium)", "estimate": 0.4482, "probability": 0.2346, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "3A/3E/3H M1 (3A/3E/3H/3I/3J)", "estimate": 0.097, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.056, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 892, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.9, "possession_home_pct": 53.7, "possession_away_pct": 46.3, "notes": "Belgium projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Belgium", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7282, "script": "Belgium is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.64 goals and fair total 3.06.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; 3A/3E/3H/3I/3J must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Belgium lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Belgium projects as the advancing side at 83.6% overall advancement probability with 17.5% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Belgium chance creation leans on Diego Moreira against 3A/3E/3H D1 in Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run; Belgium projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Belgium: starters carry the main goal usage through Jérémy Doku, Diego Moreira; bench watchlist: Loïs Openda, Leandro Trossard.", "3A/3E/3H/3I/3J: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: 3A/3E/3H SUB F6, 3A/3E/3H SUB F7, 3A/3E/3H SUB M4.", "Assist usage should flow through Jérémy Doku, Youri Tielemans; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Belgium tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.53 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If 3A/3E/3H/3I/3J is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Belgium projects as the advancing side at 83.6% overall advancement probability with 17.5% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Belgium.", "3A/3E/3H/3I/3J wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Belgium": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Senne Lammens": { "player_id": 964753, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 31, "height": 193, "market_value": 33000000, "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.516, "rating": 85.5931, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 16, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 9.3771, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "expected_saves": 0.72, "high_pressure_saves": 0.28, "shots_faced": 1.5, "opponent_faced": "3A/3E/3H F1, 3A/3E/3H M1", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.3018 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.089 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 1.814 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233695, "match_date": "2025-11-18", "home_team": "Belgium", "away_team": "Liechtenstein", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 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UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 15275, "combined_rank_score": 816.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 418.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1215.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.5931, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Senne Lammens", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jake Najdovski", "ranking": 15270 }, { "player_name": "James Durrington", "ranking": 15271 }, { "player_name": "Aleksandar Kolev", "ranking": 15272 }, { "player_name": "Aleksandr Martynovich", "ranking": 15273 }, { "player_name": "Kenny Tete", "ranking": 15274 } ], 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], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rafael Duran", "ranking": 14646 }, { "player_name": "Clément Lenglet", "ranking": 14647 }, { "player_name": "Sam Beukema", "ranking": 14648 }, { "player_name": "Jonny Otto", "ranking": 14649 }, { "player_name": "Bu-Seong Jang", "ranking": 14650 } ] } } }, "Koni De Winter": { "player_id": 1001828, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 191, "market_value": 22000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 80.5353, "minutes": 38, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 6.793, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 23, "total_progression": 99, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "opponent_faced": "3A/3E/3H F2", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0342, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0416, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 13980068, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Genoa", "away_team": "AC Milan", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "AC Milan", "opponent": "Genoa", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, 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"projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "3A/3E/3H SUB F6", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "3A/3E/3H SUB F7": { "player_id": 1062356, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0497, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "3A/3E/3H SUB F7", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } } }, "substitutes": { "3A/3E/3H SUB F6": { "player_id": 1062355, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0497, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "3A/3E/3H SUB F6", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "3A/3E/3H SUB F7": { "player_id": 1062356, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0497, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "3A/3E/3H SUB F7", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "3A/3E/3H SUB M4": { "player_id": 1062353, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "expected_goals": 0.0155, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 1.9775, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0146, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0132, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "3A/3E/3H SUB M4", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.71, "expected_assists": 0.71, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 475, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 18, "avg_rating": 6.85, "possession_estimated_pct": 46.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Matías Fernández-Pardo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 33000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.739, "defenders": [ "3A/3E/3H D2", "3A/3E/3H D3" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.348, "xg_contribution": 0.0712, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "3A/3E/3H D2", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.652 }, { "player": "3A/3E/3H D3", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.652 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matías Fernández-Pardo (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against 3A/3E/3H D2 and 3A/3E/3H D3 in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€33M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.071 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Alexis Saelemaekers", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "3A/3E/3H D4" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.512, "xg_contribution": 0.0862, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "3A/3E/3H D4", "role": "RB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.488 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alexis Saelemaekers (LWB) is slightly favored against 3A/3E/3H D4 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.086 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Diego Moreira", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "3A/3E/3H D1" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.5, "xg_contribution": 0.3328, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "3A/3E/3H D1", "role": "LB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.5 } ], "duel_analysis": "Diego Moreira (RWB) is evenly matched against 3A/3E/3H D1 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.333 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jérémy Doku", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 60000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.853, "defenders": [ "3A/3E/3H M2" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.579, "xg_contribution": 0.0983, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "3A/3E/3H M2", "role": "CM", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.421 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jérémy Doku (CM) is slightly favored against 3A/3E/3H M2 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 58%. The quality gap is significant (€60M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.098 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Amadou Onana", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "3A/3E/3H M2" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.617, "xg_contribution": 0.0139, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "3A/3E/3H M2", "role": "CM", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.383 } ], "duel_analysis": "Amadou Onana (CDM) has a clear attacking advantage against 3A/3E/3H M2 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 62%. The quality gap is significant (€41M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.014 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "3A/3E/3H F1", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Zeno Debast", "Maxim De Cuyper" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.683, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1457, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Zeno Debast", "role": "CB", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "3A/3E/3H F1 (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Zeno Debast and Maxim De Cuyper in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "3A/3E/3H M1", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Diego Moreira" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "LM vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.32, "xg_contribution": 0.0689, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Diego Moreira", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.68 } ], "duel_analysis": "3A/3E/3H M1 (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Diego Moreira in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €24M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "3A/3E/3H M4", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Alexis Saelemaekers" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "RM vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.308, "xg_contribution": 0.0675, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alexis Saelemaekers", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.692 } ], "duel_analysis": "3A/3E/3H M4 (RM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alexis Saelemaekers in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.067 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "3A/3E/3H M2", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Jérémy Doku" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.853, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.261, "xg_contribution": 0.0619, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jérémy Doku", "role": "CM", "market_value": 60000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.739 } ], "duel_analysis": "3A/3E/3H M2 (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jérémy Doku in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €60M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.062 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.803, "away_midfield_power": 0.462, "home_creative_power": 0.737, "away_creative_power": 0.503, "home_defensive_power": 0.606, "away_defensive_power": 0.393, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.634, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Jérémy Doku", "Amadou Onana", "Youri Tielemans", "Alexis Saelemaekers", "Diego Moreira" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "3A/3E/3H M1", "3A/3E/3H M2", "3A/3E/3H M3", "3A/3E/3H M4" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 53.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 46.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "home_throughball_threat": 2.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Jérémy Doku vs 3A/3E/3H M1", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.051, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.964 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.346, "away_lambda": 0.71, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "LM vs RWB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Matías Fernández-Pardo": { "opponents": [ "3A/3E/3H D2", "3A/3E/3H D3" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alexis Saelemaekers": { "opponents": [ "3A/3E/3H D4", "3A/3E/3H M4" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Diego Moreira": { "opponents": [ "3A/3E/3H D1", "3A/3E/3H M1", "3A/3E/3H M2" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jérémy Doku": { "opponents": [ "3A/3E/3H M2", "3A/3E/3H M3" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Amadou Onana": { "opponents": [ "3A/3E/3H M2" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Zeno Debast": { "opponents": [ "3A/3E/3H F1" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Maxim De Cuyper": { "opponents": [ "3A/3E/3H F1" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Youri Tielemans": { "opponents": [ "3A/3E/3H M1" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Senne Lammens": { "opponents": [ "3A/3E/3H F2", "3A/3E/3H F1" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Koni De Winter": { "opponents": [ "3A/3E/3H F2" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Charles De Ketelaere": { "opponents": [ "3A/3E/3H D1", "3A/3E/3H D2" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "3A/3E/3H D2": { "opponents": [ "Matías Fernández-Pardo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "3A/3E/3H D3": { "opponents": [ "Matías Fernández-Pardo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "3A/3E/3H D4": { "opponents": [ "Alexis Saelemaekers" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "3A/3E/3H D1": { "opponents": [ "Diego Moreira" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "3A/3E/3H M2": { "opponents": [ "Jérémy Doku", "Amadou Onana", "Diego Moreira" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "3A/3E/3H F1": { "opponents": [ "Zeno Debast", "Maxim De Cuyper" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "3A/3E/3H M1": { "opponents": [ "Diego Moreira", "Youri Tielemans" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "3A/3E/3H M4": { "opponents": [ "Alexis Saelemaekers" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "3A/3E/3H M3": { "opponents": [ "Jérémy Doku" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "3A/3E/3H G1": { "opponents": [ "Charles De Ketelaere", "Matías Fernández-Pardo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "3A/3E/3H F2": { "opponents": [ "Koni De Winter", "Zeno Debast" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Jérémy Doku vs 3A/3E/3H M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.60, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0005, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8871, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9913, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9387, "home_midfield_factor": 1.051, "away_midfield_factor": 0.964, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.725, "away_avg_quality": 0.4374, "avg_quality_gap": 0.2875, "squad_value_gap_log": 5.7961, "top5_value_gap_log": 5.323, "attack_value_gap_log": 5.5413, "elite_count_gap": 2, "combined_quality_gap": 0.7074, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.95, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.6, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0306, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.106, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.7074, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1819, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9393, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.985, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.756, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.9846, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.756, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 2.346, "final_away_lambda": 0.71 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-30T04:36:13Z" }