{ "match_info": { "home_team": "USA", "away_team": "3B/3E/3F/3I/3J", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260701", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-0", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1363, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "USA", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1794, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.62, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.38, "home_advance_probability": 0.8306, "away_advance_probability": 0.1694, "projected_winner": "USA", "projected_winner_probability": 0.8306, "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1363 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1245 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0992 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0924 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.085 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0575, "0-1": 0.0384, "0-2": 0.0131, "0-3": 0.003, "0-4": 0.0005, "1-0": 0.1245, "1-1": 0.085, "1-2": 0.0287, "1-3": 0.0065, "1-4": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.1363, "2-1": 0.0924, "2-2": 0.0314, "2-3": 0.0071, "2-4": 0.0012, "3-0": 0.0992, "3-1": 0.0673, "3-2": 0.0228, "3-3": 0.0052, "3-4": 0.0009, "4-0": 0.0542, "4-1": 0.0367, "4-2": 0.0125, "4-3": 0.0028, "5-0": 0.0237, "5-1": 0.0161, "5-2": 0.0054, "5-3": 0.0012, "6-0": 0.0086, "6-1": 0.0058, "6-2": 0.002, "7-0": 0.0027, "7-1": 0.0018, "7-2": 0.0006, "8-0": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.7194, "draw": 0.1794, "away_win": 0.1012 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5452, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4548, "btts_yes": 0.4374, "btts_no": 0.5626, "home_clean_sheet": 0.5075, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1126 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 86.52, "MCR": 85.28, "ATR": 86.23, "GK": 80.58 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 6.9, "GK": 6.8 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for USA vs 3B/3E/3F/3I/3J. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Folarin Balogun, Ricardo Pepi", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Weston McKennie vs 3B/3E/3F M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.78, Away: 0.55. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.82, "home_lambda": 2.299, "away_lambda": 0.714 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.7194, "draw": 0.1794, "away_win": 0.1012 }, "favorite": "USA", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7194, "fair_spread": 1.585, "fair_total": 3.013, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "USA", "estimate": 2.299, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "3B/3E/3F/3I/3J", "estimate": 0.714, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5452, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4374, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "USA", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5075, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "3B/3E/3F/3I/3J", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1126, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ricardo Pepi (USA)", "estimate": 0.5346, "probability": 0.4782, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "3B/3E/3F F1 (3B/3E/3F/3I/3J)", "estimate": 0.1259, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Weston McKennie (USA)", "estimate": 0.2192, "probability": 0.2819, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "3B/3E/3F M1 (3B/3E/3F/3I/3J)", "estimate": 0.0975, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.013, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 799, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.2, "possession_home_pct": 53.5, "possession_away_pct": 46.5, "notes": "USA projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "USA", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7194, "script": "USA is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.58 goals and fair total 3.01.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; 3B/3E/3F/3I/3J must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A USA lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; USA projects as the advancing side at 83.1% overall advancement probability with 17.9% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "USA chance creation leans on Ricardo Pepi against 3B/3E/3F D2, 3B/3E/3F D3 in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; USA projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "USA: starters carry the main goal usage through Folarin Balogun, Ricardo Pepi; bench watchlist: Haji Wright, Josh Sargent.", "3B/3E/3F/3I/3J: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: 3B/3E/3F SUB F6, 3B/3E/3F SUB F7, 3B/3E/3F SUB M4.", "Assist usage should flow through Weston McKennie; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: USA tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.51 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If 3B/3E/3F/3I/3J is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; USA projects as the advancing side at 83.1% overall advancement probability with 17.9% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for USA.", "3B/3E/3F/3I/3J wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "USA": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Matt Turner": { "player_id": 833943, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 190, "market_value": 2600000, "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.4718, "rating": 80.5814, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 16, "total_long_balls": 14, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 36, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.9812, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 10.6267, "duels_won": 2, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "expected_saves": 1.15, "high_pressure_saves": 0.44, "shots_faced": 2.5, "opponent_faced": "3B/3E/3F F1, 3B/3E/3F F2", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186887, "match_date": "2026-06-26", "home_team": "Türkiye", "away_team": "USA", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "USA", "opponent": "Türkiye", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "goals_prevented": -0.6798 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15171569, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Charlotte FC", "away_team": "New England Revolution", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "New England Revolution", "opponent": "Charlotte FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.9109 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "MLS", "league_id": "242", "league_slug": "mls", "league_country": "USA", "season_id": "86668", "season_name": "MLS 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15171561, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "New England Revolution", "away_team": "Minnesota United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "New England Revolution", "opponent": "Minnesota United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 21, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 1.2018 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "MLS", "league_id": "242", "league_slug": "mls", "league_country": "USA", "season_id": "86668", "season_name": "MLS 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 11886376, "match_date": "2024-07-02", "home_team": "USA", "away_team": "Uruguay", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "USA", "opponent": "Uruguay", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 22, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.3494 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" }, { "match_id": 11886372, "match_date": "2024-06-27", "home_team": "Panama", "away_team": "USA", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "USA", "opponent": "Panama", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.6283 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" }, { "match_id": 11886363, "match_date": "2024-06-23", "home_team": "USA", "away_team": "Bolivia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "USA", "opponent": "Bolivia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 14, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2147 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17038, "combined_rank_score": 1662.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 617.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 2707.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.5814, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Matt Turner", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Joe Lolley", "ranking": 17033 }, { "player_name": "Joël Monteiro", "ranking": 17034 }, { "player_name": "Agustín Almendra", "ranking": 17035 }, { "player_name": "Santiago González", "ranking": 17036 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Zambrano", "ranking": 17037 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Tomás Belmonte", "ranking": 17039 }, { "player_name": "Antonio Blanco", "ranking": 17040 }, { "player_name": "Andreas Schjelderup", "ranking": 17041 }, { "player_name": "Julian Gressel", "ranking": 17042 }, { "player_name": "Ivan Schranz", "ranking": 17043 } ] } } }, "Antonee Robinson": { "player_id": 803174, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 33, "height": 183, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 89.2398, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 37, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 77, "possession_lost": 17.535, "dispossessed": 1.0582, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.5973, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2074, "expected_assists": 0.1164, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "xgot": 0.8043, "ball_carries": 24, "total_progression": 102, "progressive_carries": 3, "key_pass": 2, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.708, "opponent_faced": "3B/3E/3F M1", "pressing_zone": "LM vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LM vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1458, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0939, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186878, "match_date": "2026-06-19", "home_team": "USA", "away_team": "Australia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "USA", "opponent": "Australia", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186873, "match_date": "2026-06-13", "home_team": "USA", "away_team": "Paraguay", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "USA", "opponent": "Paraguay", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0569, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 44, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "expected_assists": 0.0979, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7884, "expected_assists": 0.1148, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 56, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0246, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 11886376, "match_date": "2024-07-02", "home_team": "USA", "away_team": "Uruguay", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "USA", "opponent": "Uruguay", 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"total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "3B/3E/3F SUB F6", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "3B/3E/3F SUB F7": { "player_id": 9103869, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0549, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "3B/3E/3F SUB F7", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "3B/3E/3F SUB M4": { "player_id": 9103866, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "expected_goals": 0.0171, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 1.9775, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0146, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0132, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "3B/3E/3F SUB M4", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.71, "expected_assists": 0.71, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 475, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 18, "avg_rating": 6.85, "possession_estimated_pct": 46.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ricardo Pepi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "3B/3E/3F D2", "3B/3E/3F D3" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.332, "xg_contribution": 0.3052, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "3B/3E/3F D2", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.668 }, { "player": "3B/3E/3F D3", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.668 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ricardo Pepi (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against 3B/3E/3F D2 and 3B/3E/3F D3 in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.305 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Christian Pulišić", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "3B/3E/3F D2", "3B/3E/3F M2" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.429, "xg_contribution": 0.2179, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "3B/3E/3F D2", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.571 }, { "player": "3B/3E/3F M2", "role": "CM", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.571 } ], "duel_analysis": "Christian Pulišić (SS) is evenly matched against 3B/3E/3F D2 and 3B/3E/3F M2 in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 43%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.218 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Malik Tillman", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "3B/3E/3F D4" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.54, "xg_contribution": 0.0367, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "3B/3E/3F D4", "role": "RB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.46 } ], "duel_analysis": "Malik Tillman (LWB) is slightly favored against 3B/3E/3F D4 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.037 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Brenden Aaronson", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 18700000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.618, "defenders": [ "3B/3E/3F D1" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.473, "xg_contribution": 0.1088, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "3B/3E/3F D1", "role": "LB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.527 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brenden Aaronson (RWB) is evenly matched against 3B/3E/3F D1 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.109 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Weston McKennie", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "3B/3E/3F M2" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.569, "xg_contribution": 0.109, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "3B/3E/3F M2", "role": "CM", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.431 } ], "duel_analysis": "Weston McKennie (CM) is slightly favored against 3B/3E/3F M2 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€31M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.109 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "3B/3E/3F M1", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Antonee Robinson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.292, "xg_contribution": 0.0656, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonee Robinson", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.708 } ], "duel_analysis": "3B/3E/3F M1 (LM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Antonee Robinson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €27M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.066 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "3B/3E/3F M2", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Weston McKennie" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.271, "xg_contribution": 0.063, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Weston McKennie", "role": "CM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.729 } ], "duel_analysis": "3B/3E/3F M2 (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Weston McKennie in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €31M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "3B/3E/3F M3", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Weston McKennie" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.271, "xg_contribution": 0.063, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Weston McKennie", "role": "CM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.729 } ], "duel_analysis": "3B/3E/3F M3 (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Weston McKennie in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €31M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "3B/3E/3F M4", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Antonee Robinson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "RM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.292, "xg_contribution": 0.0656, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonee Robinson", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.708 } ], "duel_analysis": "3B/3E/3F M4 (RM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Antonee Robinson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €27M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.066 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "3B/3E/3F F1", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Antonee Robinson", "Chris Richards" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.677, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1457, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonee Robinson", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "3B/3E/3F F1 (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Antonee Robinson and Chris Richards in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €25M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "3B/3E/3F F2", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Antonee Robinson", "Chris Richards" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.677, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1457, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonee Robinson", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "3B/3E/3F F2 (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Antonee Robinson and Chris Richards in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €25M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.706, "away_midfield_power": 0.462, "home_creative_power": 0.711, "away_creative_power": 0.503, "home_defensive_power": 0.689, "away_defensive_power": 0.393, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.604, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Weston McKennie", "Malik Tillman", "Tyler Adams", "Brenden Aaronson" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "3B/3E/3F M1", "3B/3E/3F M2", "3B/3E/3F M3", "3B/3E/3F M4" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 53.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 46.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "home_throughball_threat": 2.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Weston McKennie vs 3B/3E/3F M1", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.043, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.966 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.04, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.299, "away_lambda": 0.714, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Ricardo Pepi": { "opponents": [ "3B/3E/3F D2", "3B/3E/3F D3" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Christian Pulišić": { "opponents": [ "3B/3E/3F D2", "3B/3E/3F M2" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Malik Tillman": { "opponents": [ "3B/3E/3F D4", "3B/3E/3F M1" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Brenden Aaronson": { "opponents": [ "3B/3E/3F D1", "3B/3E/3F M4" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Weston McKennie": { "opponents": [ "3B/3E/3F M2", "3B/3E/3F M3" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Antonee Robinson": { "opponents": [ "3B/3E/3F M1", "3B/3E/3F M4", "3B/3E/3F F1", "3B/3E/3F F2" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Chris Richards": { "opponents": [ "3B/3E/3F F1", "3B/3E/3F F2" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tyler Adams": { "opponents": [ "3B/3E/3F M3" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Matt Turner": { "opponents": [ "3B/3E/3F F1", "3B/3E/3F F2" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Sergiño Dest": { "opponents": [ "3B/3E/3F F1" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Folarin Balogun": { "opponents": [ "3B/3E/3F D1", "3B/3E/3F D3" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "3B/3E/3F D2": { "opponents": [ "Ricardo Pepi", "Christian Pulišić" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "3B/3E/3F D3": { "opponents": [ "Ricardo Pepi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "3B/3E/3F M2": { "opponents": [ "Christian Pulišić", "Weston McKennie" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "3B/3E/3F D4": { "opponents": [ "Malik Tillman" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "3B/3E/3F D1": { "opponents": [ "Brenden Aaronson" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "3B/3E/3F M1": { "opponents": [ "Antonee Robinson", "Malik Tillman" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "3B/3E/3F M3": { "opponents": [ "Weston McKennie", "Tyler Adams" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "3B/3E/3F M4": { "opponents": [ "Antonee Robinson", "Brenden Aaronson" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "3B/3E/3F F1": { "opponents": [ "Antonee Robinson", "Chris Richards" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "3B/3E/3F F2": { "opponents": [ "Antonee Robinson", "Chris Richards" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "3B/3E/3F G1": { "opponents": [ "Folarin Balogun", "Christian Pulišić" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Weston McKennie vs 3B/3E/3F M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.78, Away: 0.55. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0005, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0127, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0694, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9913, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9383, "home_midfield_factor": 1.043, "away_midfield_factor": 0.966, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6855, "away_avg_quality": 0.4374, "avg_quality_gap": 0.2481, "squad_value_gap_log": 5.5869, "top5_value_gap_log": 5.0499, "attack_value_gap_log": 5.2968, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.6506, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.95, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.6, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0356, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.106, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.6506, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1677, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9449, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.969, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.756, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.9686, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.756, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 2.299, "final_away_lambda": 0.714 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-30T04:37:19Z" }